Belgium Economy

Belgium’s gdp growth annual decreased to -4.5 by -67.63% on July 2020 from -13.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s gdp growth annual decreased by -364.71%. Belgium’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -4.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.35.Belgium’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.41 by -19.61% on December 2020 from 0.51 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s inflation cpi decreased by -46.05%. Belgium’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.41 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.740833.Belgium’s unemployment rate decreased to 5.1 by -1.92% on October 2020 from 5.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s unemployment rate decreased by -1.92%. Belgium’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 5.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.225.

Belgium Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Belgium 10-year bond yield BE.10Y -0.07 0.5 -0.75 -1.25757 49.3943 775 -155.56 -176.92 -6.61765
Belgium 2-year bond yield BE.2Y -0.72 0.5 -0.5 -1.09858 53.0398 5.26 9.26 10.43 0.2037
Belgium Yield Curve BE.YC 0.65 -0.5 -1 -1.26126 44.9268 -3.85 -17.2 -12.52 -0.49698
Belgium Credit Default Swaps CDS.Belgium 11.25 -1 -1 -0.74671 49.5686 -8.16 -2.17 -6.25 -0.29581

Belgium 10-year bond yield closed up by 0.0% to -0.382 on 23 January 2021 and +0.08215% on a weekly basis. Belgium 10-year bond yield momentum was last calculated at +0.5/100 indicating positive momentum. Belgium 10-year bond yield trend is -0.75/100 indicating a negative trend. Belgium 10-year bond yield momentum exhaustion is -1.25757 indicating Belgium 10-year bond yield is oversold.Belgium Credit Default Swaps closed up by 0.0% to 13.5 on 23 January 2021 and +0.0% on a weekly basis. Belgium Credit Default Swaps momentum was last calculated at -1.0/100 indicating negative momentum. Belgium Credit Default Swaps trend is -1.0/100 indicating a negative trend. Belgium Credit Default Swaps momentum exhaustion is -0.74671 indicating Belgium Credit Default Swaps is oversold.

Belgium Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Belgium Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Belgium’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Belgium macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Belgium Macro Model

Belgium News

Belgium Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual -0.6 -4.9 -0.877551 -1.42857 1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-01-01
inflation cpi 1.63 1.46 0.116438 1.71667 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 6.5 6.7 -0.0298507 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-05-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 114.8 103.6 0.108108 0.788162 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 643789 646799 -0.00465369 0.192834 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-01-01
government debt to gdp 114.1 98.1 0.163099 0.224249 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 1223220 1212070 0.00919914 0.100562 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves 26996 26289 0.0268934 -0.034685 -1.0 -1.0 0.133333 2021-05-31
gold reserves 227.4 227.4 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.975 2019-04-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 2514 -306 -9.21569 2.26494 1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-01-31
current account to gdp -1.2 -1.3 -0.0769231 -1.6 -1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
central bank balance sheet 329254 324017 0.0161627 0.208986 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-06-30
banks balance sheet 1174830 1194700 -0.0166318 0.0482253 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-03-31
money supply m2 624900 615400 0.0154371 0.0449833 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-05-31
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -9279 -3655 1.53871 -41.6974 1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-01
government revenues 238598 236500 0.00887104 0.432522 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
fiscal expenditure 235976 228976 0.0305709 0.491282 1.0 1.0 0 2018-01-31

Belgium’s gdp growth annual decreased to -4.5 by -67.63% on July 2020 from -13.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s gdp growth annual decreased by -364.71%. Belgium’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -4.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.35.Belgium’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.41 by -19.61% on December 2020 from 0.51 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s inflation cpi decreased by -46.05%. Belgium’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.41 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.740833.Belgium’s unemployment rate decreased to 5.1 by -1.92% on October 2020 from 5.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s unemployment rate decreased by -1.92%. Belgium’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 5.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.225.Belgium’s building permits icnreased to 2457.0 by 12.81% on August 2020 from 2178.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s building permits increased by 11.63%. Belgium’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 2457.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2364.25.Belgium’s business confidence decreased to -8.4 by -30.58% on December 2020 from -12.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s business confidence increased by 147.06%. Belgium’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -8.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.5583.Belgium’s consumer confidence decreased to -8.0 by -46.67% on December 2020 from -15.0 in the previous Monthly. Belgium’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.75.

 

Belgium Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 9.8 6.5 0.507692 -1.42795 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-06-30
ESI - Economic Composite 114.8 103.6 0.108108 0.788162 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector 7.6 -0.8 -10.5 -1.2724 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -2.2 -4.1 -0.463415 -0.890547 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Construction sector 2.4 -3.8 -1.63158 -1.13333 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
Retail sector -4.5 -17.4 -0.741379 -0.88 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Services sector 12.8 -0.9 -15.2222 -1.25549 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01

Belgium’s business confidence decreased to -8.4 by -30.58% on December 2020 from -12.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s business confidence increased by 147.06%. Belgium’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -8.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.5583.Belgium’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 88.7 by -327.0% on January 2021 from 91.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -554.0%. Belgium’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 88.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 83.825.Belgium’s Manufacturing sector decreased to -9.7 by -202.0% on January 2021 from -9.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -102.0%. Belgium’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -9.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.4667.Belgium’s Consumer sector decreased to -10.9 by -684.0% on January 2021 from -11.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Consumer sector decreased by -917.0%. Belgium’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -10.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.6333.Belgium’s Construction sector icnreased to -11.0 by 1000.0% on January 2021 from -10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Construction sector increased by 12000.0%. Belgium’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.75.Belgium’s Retail sector icnreased to -18.3 by 22105.0% on January 2021 from -5.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Retail sector increased by 11279.0%. Belgium’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -18.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.3167.Belgium’s Services sector icnreased to -18.9 by 6293.0% on January 2021 from -11.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Services sector decreased by -48571.0%. Belgium’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -18.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -18.1917.

 

Belgium Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence 8 -6 -2.33333 -1.34783 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-05-31
car registrations 41126 34836 0.18056 -0.163102 1.0 -1.0 0.15 2021-06-30
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) 3.1 -0.2 -16.5 -1.07094 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) 3.1 1.4 1.21429 -1.53448 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 13.1 13.9 -0.057554 -0.527076 1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 42 38.2 0.0994764 -0.288136 -1.0 -1.0 0.483333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -8.3 -10.4 -0.201923 -0.681992 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) 22.1 19.2 0.151042 1.40217 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 29.5 29.6 -0.00337838 0.353211 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-04-01

Belgium’s consumer confidence decreased to -8.0 by -46.67% on December 2020 from -15.0 in the previous Monthly. Belgium’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.75.Belgium’s car registrations decreased to 29103.0 by -24.8% on November 2020 from 38703.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s car registrations decreased by -15.82%. Belgium’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 29103.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 36240.1.Belgium’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) decreased to -20.0 by -1031.0% on January 2021 from -22.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 2739.0%. Belgium’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -20.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.7333.Belgium’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to 0.9 by 12500.0% on January 2021 from 0.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -13913.0%. Belgium’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 0.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.366667.Belgium’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) icnreased to 10.4 by 1954.0% on January 2021 from 8.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -2973.0%. Belgium’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 10.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.1833.Belgium’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 61.9 by 164.0% on January 2021 from 60.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 43826.0%. Belgium’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 61.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 47.3083.Belgium’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -16.3 by 1479.0% on January 2021 from -14.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) decreased by -2788.0%. Belgium’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -16.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.7667.Belgium’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) icnreased to 14.3 by 3750.0% on January 2021 from 10.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) increased by 1420000.0%. Belgium’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 14.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.03333.Belgium’s Consumer – Households Financial situation icnreased to 23.3 by 991.0% on January 2021 from 21.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Consumer – Households Financial situation increased by 3239.0%. Belgium’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 23.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.8167.

Belgium Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector 7.6 -0.8 -10.5 -1.2724 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -3.5 -15.7 -0.77707 -0.91784 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 27 17.5 0.542857 -3.72727 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 7.3 7.1 0.028169 -1.32159 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -1.1 -11.5 -0.904348 -0.973872 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -13.7 -5.9 1.32203 -3.44643 -1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 12.7 7.3 0.739726 -1.35775 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
industrial production 10.5 28.4 -0.630282 -3.1875 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-05-31
industrial production mom -2.3 5 -1.46 -1.17692 -1.0 -1.0 0.516667 2021-05-31
capacity utilization 79.3 77.8 0.0192802 -0.0209877 1.0 -1.0 0.333333 2021-04-01

Belgium’s Manufacturing sector decreased to -9.7 by -202.0% on January 2021 from -9.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -102.0%. Belgium’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -9.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.4667.Belgium’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased to -28.9 by -334.0% on January 2021 from -29.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 3762.0%. Belgium’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -28.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -33.7833.Belgium’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased to 3.3 by -3265.0% on January 2021 from 4.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -20000.0%. Belgium’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 3.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.25.Belgium’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to 2.2 by -6452.0% on January 2021 from 6.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -17857.0%. Belgium’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of 2.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.625.Belgium’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books icnreased to -29.2 by 775.0% on January 2021 from -27.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 2978.0%. Belgium’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -29.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -34.5833.Belgium’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased to -7.0 by -667.0% on January 2021 from -7.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -21290.0%. Belgium’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of -7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.16667.Belgium’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) On a year on year basis Belgium’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) increased by 24762.0%. Belgium’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -7.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.4417.Belgium’s industrial production decreased to 5.4 by -217.39% on October 2020 from -4.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s industrial production increased by 3.85%. Belgium’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of 5.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.425.Belgium’s industrial production mom icnreased to 0.5 by 150.0% on September 2020 from 0.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s industrial production mom decreased by -145.46%. Belgium’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.3.Belgium’s capacity utilization icnreased to 78.0 by 6.12% on April 2020 from 73.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s capacity utilization decreased by -5.11%. Belgium’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 78.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 78.6667.


Belgium Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector 12.8 -0.9 -15.2222 -1.25549 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 28.9 21.9 0.319635 -1.46463 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 11.1 9 0.233333 -10.25 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) 1 -13.6 -1.07353 -1.02342 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) 8.6 -11 -1.78182 -1.18943 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) 4.8 8.1 -0.407407 -1.17647 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 25 18.7 0.336898 -2.05932 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01

Belgium’s Services sector icnreased to -18.9 by 6293.0% on January 2021 from -11.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Services sector decreased by -48571.0%. Belgium’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -18.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -18.1917.Belgium’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -4.0 by -16154.0% on January 2021 from 6.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -12105.0%. Belgium’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.075.Belgium’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to 3.8 by 5200.0% on January 2021 from 2.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) increased by 270.0%. Belgium’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 3.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.93333.Belgium’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -24.4 by 893.0% on January 2021 from -22.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) increased by 152667.0%. Belgium’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -24.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27.625.Belgium’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -28.3 by 4817.0% on January 2021 from -19.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -414286.0%. Belgium’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -28.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27.2667.Belgium’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased to -0.1 by -9750.0% on January 2021 from -4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -10263.0%. Belgium’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.2417.Belgium’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased to 0.7 by -8444.0% on January 2021 from 4.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -9588.0%. Belgium’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.025.

Belgium Retail Sector

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector -4.5 -17.4 -0.741379 -0.88 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) -16.6 -11.4 0.45614 -0.48125 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 15.3 13.3 0.150376 -2.93671 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) 3.8 -24.8 -1.15323 -1.13194 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels 9.4 9.2 0.0217391 -0.734463 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) -7.8 -18.2 -0.571429 -0.838843 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) -7.8 -5.9 0.322034 -0.717391 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
retail sales 7.2 19 -0.621053 1.48276 -1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-05-31
retail sales MoM 1.4 -2.7 -1.51852 -0.899281 1.0 -1.0 0.5 2021-05-31

Belgium’s Retail sector icnreased to -18.3 by 22105.0% on January 2021 from -5.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Retail sector increased by 11279.0%. Belgium’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -18.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.3167.Belgium’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -30.1 by 5515.0% on January 2021 from -19.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) increased by 20714.0%. Belgium’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -30.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.4333.Belgium’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -13.4 by -23400.0% on January 2021 from 10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -40454.0%. Belgium’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -13.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.98333.Belgium’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -7.0 by -23462.0% on January 2021 from 5.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -4737.0%. Belgium’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.9583.Belgium’s Retail – Stock Levels icnreased to 9.4 by 1899.0% on January 2021 from 7.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -2295.0%. Belgium’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 9.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.925.Belgium’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -38.6 by 17183.0% on January 2021 from -14.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) increased by 1276670.0%. Belgium’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -38.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.0583.Belgium’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -22.7 by 1947.0% on January 2021 from -19.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) increased by 26613.0%. Belgium’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -22.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.4083.Belgium’s retail sales icnreased to 7.8 by 14.71% on October 2020 from 6.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s retail sales increased by 766.67%. Belgium’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 7.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.24167.Belgium’s retail sales MoM decreased to 1.0 by -113.51% on October 2020 from -7.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s retail sales MoM decreased by -28.57%. Belgium’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.6.

Belgium Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector 2.4 -3.8 -1.63158 -1.13333 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -6.7 -12.2 -0.45082 -0.63587 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 7.7 0.3 24.6667 -1.64167 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 11.4 4.6 1.47826 -1.64407 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
building permits 3542 2452 0.444535 0.116646 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-03-31
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) 10.7 -7.4 -2.44595 -1.26884 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 81 68.6 0.180758 0.727079 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 8.7 9.7 -0.103093 -0.0333333 -1.0 -1.0 0.65 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 6.5 9.8 -0.336735 0.031746 -1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 3.3 3.4 -0.0294118 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 0.9 2 -0.55 -0.884615 -1.0 -1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 0.9 0.5 0.8 -0.590909 -1.0 -1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 4.3 17.3 -0.751445 -0.910603 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01

Belgium’s Construction sector icnreased to -11.0 by 1000.0% on January 2021 from -10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Construction sector increased by 12000.0%. Belgium’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.75.Belgium’s Construction – Current Order Books On a year on year basis Belgium’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 5455.0%. Belgium’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -17.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.0833.Belgium’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months icnreased to -6.0 by 2000.0% on January 2021 from -5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months increased by 50000.0%. Belgium’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.66667.Belgium’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months icnreased to -5.0 by 15000.0% on January 2021 from -2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -60000.0%. Belgium’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -5.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.16667.Belgium’s building permits icnreased to 2457.0 by 12.81% on August 2020 from 2178.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s building permits increased by 11.63%. Belgium’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 2457.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2364.25.Belgium’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -20.0 by 3333.0% on January 2021 from -15.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) increased by 90000.0%. Belgium’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -20.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.5833.Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased to 57.0 by -806.0% on January 2021 from 62.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -2400.0%. Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 57.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 63.0.Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) icnreased to 13.0 by 3000.0% on January 2021 from 10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 4444.0%. Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 13.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.58333.Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) On a year on year basis Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -3846.0%. Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.58333.Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) icnreased to 6.0 by 10000.0% on January 2021 from 3.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) increased by 5000.0%. Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.16667.Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) icnreased to 3.0 by 5000.0% on January 2021 from 2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) increased by 20000.0%. Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.33333.Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) icnreased to 2.0 by 10000.0% on January 2021 from 1.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 10000.0%. Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.58333.Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 27.0 by 1739.0% on January 2021 from 23.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 35000.0%. Belgium’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 27.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 25.3333.

Belgium GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 107524 106254 0.0119525 0.00694874 -1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-03-01
gdp growth annual -0.6 -4.9 -0.877551 -1.42857 1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-01-01
gdp 529.607 542.686 -0.0241005 0.126047 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
gdp growth 1 -0.1 -11 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.875 2021-01-01

Belgium’s Real GDP icnreased to 106220.0 by 12.21% on July 2020 from 94660.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s Real GDP increased by 0.31%. Belgium’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 106220.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 107699.0.Belgium’s gdp growth annual decreased to -4.5 by -67.63% on July 2020 from -13.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s gdp growth annual decreased by -364.71%. Belgium’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -4.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.35.Belgium’s gdp decreased to 529.607 by -2.41% on January 2019 from 542.686 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s gdp increased by 12.6%. Belgium’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 529.607 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 505.567.Belgium’s gdp growth decreased to 11.4 by -196.61% on July 2020 from -11.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s gdp growth increased by 11300.0%. Belgium’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 11.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.0583333.


Belgium inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 1.63 1.46 0.116438 1.71667 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 1.1 0.8 0.375 -0.153846 1.0 -1.0 0.366667 2021-05-31
consumer price index cpi 111.3 111.05 0.00225124 0.0162527 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-06-30
Producer Price Index 125.6 124 0.0129032 0.171642 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
PPI Index 17.2 12 0.433333 -2.95455 1.0 1.0 0.183333 2021-05-31

Belgium’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.41 by -19.61% on December 2020 from 0.51 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s inflation cpi decreased by -46.05%. Belgium’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.41 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.740833.Belgium’s core inflation rate decreased to 1.2 by -14.29% on October 2020 from 1.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s core inflation rate decreased by -20.0%. Belgium’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.4.Belgium’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 109.49 by 0.03% on December 2020 from 109.46 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s consumer price index cpi increased by 0.41%. Belgium’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 109.49 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 109.586.Belgium’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 114.3 by 2.14% on October 2020 from 111.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s Producer Price Index decreased by -2.81%. Belgium’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 114.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 113.35.Belgium’s PPI Index decreased to -2.8 by -22.22% on October 2020 from -3.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s PPI Index increased by 33.33%. Belgium’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -2.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.4.

Belgium Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -9.4 -1.9 3.94737 7.54545 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget -9279 -3655 1.53871 -41.6974 1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-01
government revenues 238598 236500 0.00887104 0.432522 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
fiscal expenditure 235976 228976 0.0305709 0.491282 1.0 1.0 0 2018-01-31

Belgium’s Government budget icnreased to -3402.0 by 7.69% on December 2018 from -3159.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s Government budget decreased by -536.71%. Belgium’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -3402.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10137.4.Belgium’s government revenues icnreased to 232880.0 by 3.75% on January 2018 from 224454.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s government revenues increased by 46.47%. Belgium’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 232880.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 198258.0.Belgium’s fiscal expenditure icnreased to 235976.0 by 3.06% on January 2018 from 228976.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s fiscal expenditure increased by 49.13%. Belgium’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 235976.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 208474.0.

Belgium Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
central bank balance sheet 329254 324017 0.0161627 0.208986 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-06-30
banks balance sheet 1174830 1194700 -0.0166318 0.0482253 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-03-31
money supply m0 50741 50237 0.0100324 0.0836305 1.0 1.0 0.75 2021-05-31
money supply m1 270800 264900 0.0222726 0.073751 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-05-31
money supply m2 624900 615400 0.0154371 0.0449833 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-05-31
money supply m3 650700 641400 0.0144995 0.034006 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-05-31

Belgium’s interest rate Belgium’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.05 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.05.Belgium’s central bank balance sheet icnreased to 292138.0 by 1.13% on November 2020 from 288869.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s central bank balance sheet increased by 61.92%. Belgium’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 292138.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 242880.0.Belgium’s banks balance sheet decreased to 1139250.0 by -0.83% on September 2020 from 1148820.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s banks balance sheet increased by 6.09%. Belgium’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 1139250.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1118660.0.Belgium’s money supply m2 icnreased to 603400.0 by 0.68% on October 2020 from 599300.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s money supply m2 increased by 6.33%. Belgium’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 603400.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 587558.0.

Belgium Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 106.5 101.4 0.0502959 0.599099 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 6.5 6.7 -0.0298507 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate 19 19 0 0.570248 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-03-31
long term unemployment rate 2.8 2.7 0.037037 -0.0967742 1.0 -1.0 0.483333 2021-01-01

Belgium’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 84.1 by -266.0% on January 2021 from 86.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Belgium’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -1522.0%. Belgium’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 84.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 85.9667.Belgium’s unemployment rate decreased to 5.1 by -1.92% on October 2020 from 5.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s unemployment rate decreased by -1.92%. Belgium’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 5.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.225.Belgium’s youth unemployment rate On a year on year basis Belgium’s youth unemployment rate increased by 40.77%. Belgium’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 18.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.25.Belgium’s long term unemployment rate icnreased to 2.3 by 15.0% on March 2020 from 2.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -25.81%. Belgium’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 2.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.55.

 

Belgium Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 2514 -306 -9.21569 2.26494 1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-01-31
current account to gdp -1.2 -1.3 -0.0769231 -1.6 -1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-31
exports 35880 36925 -0.0283006 0.400091 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
imports 34168.9 33394 0.0232048 0.382176 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
balance of trade 1711.1 3531 -0.515406 0.889048 -1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-05-31

Belgium’s current account icnreased to -2586.0 by 1268.25% on July 2020 from -189.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s current account decreased by -254.02%. Belgium’s current account trend is down since the current value of -2586.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -422.917.Belgium’s current account to gdp decreased to -1.2 by -7.69% on January 2019 from -1.3 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s current account to gdp decreased by -160.0%. Belgium’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of -1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.508333.Belgium’s exports icnreased to 32845.8 by 3.46% on October 2020 from 31747.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s exports decreased by -8.11%. Belgium’s exports trend is down since the current value of 32845.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 30327.2.Belgium’s imports decreased to 29135.6 by -4.21% on October 2020 from 30415.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s imports decreased by -13.37%. Belgium’s imports trend is down since the current value of 29135.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 28751.3.Belgium’s balance of trade icnreased to 3710.2 by 178.58% on October 2020 from 1331.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s balance of trade increased by 75.76%. Belgium’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 3710.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1575.93.Belgium’s bank lending rate decreased to 1.58 by -0.63% on October 2020 from 1.59 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s bank lending rate increased by 0.64%. Belgium’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 1.58 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.57083.

Belgium Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 26996 26289 0.0268934 -0.034685 -1.0 -1.0 0.133333 2021-05-31
gold reserves 227.4 227.4 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.975 2019-04-01

Belgium’s foreign exchange reserves decreased to 26534.0 by -4.72% on November 2020 from 27849.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 2.55%. Belgium’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 26534.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 27470.1.Belgium’s gold reserves Belgium’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 227.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 227.4.Belgium’s government debt decreased to 641163.0 by -1.33% on May 2020 from 649798.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s government debt increased by 19.3%. Belgium’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 641163.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 577850.0.Belgium’s government debt to gdp decreased to 98.6 by -1.2% on January 2019 from 99.8 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s government debt to gdp increased by 12.94%. Belgium’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 98.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 102.058.Belgium’s external debt icnreased to 1230210.0 by 1.86% on April 2020 from 1207750.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s external debt increased by 5.8%. Belgium’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 1230210.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1147330.0.

Belgium Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 643789 646799 -0.00465369 0.192834 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-01-01
government debt to gdp 114.1 98.1 0.163099 0.224249 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 1223220 1212070 0.00919914 0.100562 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01

Belgium’s government debt decreased to 641163.0 by -1.33% on May 2020 from 649798.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s government debt increased by 19.3%. Belgium’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 641163.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 577850.0.Belgium’s government debt to gdp decreased to 98.6 by -1.2% on January 2019 from 99.8 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s government debt to gdp increased by 12.94%. Belgium’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 98.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 102.058.Belgium’s external debt icnreased to 1230210.0 by 1.86% on April 2020 from 1207750.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s external debt increased by 5.8%. Belgium’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 1230210.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1147330.0.

Belgium Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate -0.33 -0.33 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.325 2021-02-28
bank lending rate 1.57 1.54 0.0194805 -0.00632911 -1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2021-05-31

Belgium’s interbank rate icnreased to -0.436 by 9.55% on July 2019 from -0.398 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s interbank rate increased by 36.68%. Belgium’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of -0.436 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.337667.Belgium’s balance of trade icnreased to 3710.2 by 178.58% on October 2020 from 1331.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s balance of trade increased by 75.76%. Belgium’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 3710.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1575.93.Belgium’s bank lending rate decreased to 1.58 by -0.63% on October 2020 from 1.59 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Belgium’s bank lending rate increased by 0.64%. Belgium’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 1.58 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.57083.

 

Belgium macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Belgium economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Belgium Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Belgium Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Belgium’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
Read more on how to analyze a country’s macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world.Click here to learn more.

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