Canada Citi economic surprise index

Canada Citi economic surprise index Chart

Canada Citi economic surprise index

Canada Citi economic surprise index Statistics

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the Canada Canada Citigroup Economic Surprise Index signals presented in the statistics table below.

Canada Financial Markets

MarketSymbolLastMomTrendExhRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
S&P/TSX CompositeTSE2011000.751.0450353.0961-0.18-0.454.90.02168
Canada ETFEWC36.75111.4607364.0678-0.46-2.233.840.05137
Canadian Dollar US Dollar (CAD/USD)CADUSD 1.26-1-1-1.696836.96020.732.372.32-0.02377
Canada 10-Year Bond YieldCA.10Y1.22-0.5-0.25-0.2448142.0376-5.79-14.14-20.31-0.55997
Canada 5-Year Bond YieldCA.5Y0.81-0.5-0.5-0.5412934.4957-11.09-14.74-14.74-0.7685
Canada 2-year bond yieldCA.2Y0.48-1-1-0.6896331.55075.4911.6347.69-0.87739
Canada Yield CurveCA.YC0.7500.751.3340852.2334-10.71-24.32-37.81-6.34831
Canada Credit Default SwapsCDS.Canada37.8-0.50.51.8011361.323300-0.260.10909

Canada Financial News Stream

Canada Macroeconomic Indicators

IndicatorActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
balance of trade-1390462-4.00866-0.229021.01.00.452021-05-31
bank lending rate2.452.450-0.379747-1.0-1.00.0252020-05-30
banks balance sheet709612070533600.006062360.13251.01.00.9166672020-09-30
building permits1110720011162400-0.004945170.8019961.01.012021-04-30
business confidence71.964.70.1112830.2353951.01.00.9333332021-06-30
capacity utilization81.779.70.0250941-0.02038371.0-1.00.3666672021-01-31
capital flows-38-48-0.2083331.714291.0-1.00.7666672021-01-01
car registrations151912166709-0.08875950.391481.01.00.9666672021-05-31
central bank balance sheet4767134761640.001152960.0134614-1.01.00.01666672021-05-31
consumer confidence55.751.490.08176340.2633251.01.00.9666672021-07-31
consumer price index cpi141140.30.004989310.03600291.01.012021-05-31
core inflation rate2.82.30.21739131.01.012021-05-31
current account1180-7261-1.16251-1.080331.01.00.2166672021-01-01
current account to gdp-1.9-2.1-0.0952381-5.751.0-1.002019-02-28
deposit interest rate0.160.1600.3333331.01.00.7166672021-05-28
exports4953050333.4-0.01596160.4565421.01.00.9833332021-05-31
external debt30362303147440-0.03533350.2114011.01.00.32021-01-31
fiscal expenditure64021421700.5181650.6838771.01.00.92021-03-31
foreign direct investment1962024826.904920.195031.01.00.62021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves8905389205-0.001703940.0203491.01.00.4833332021-06-30
gdp1736.431716.260.01175230.1852931.01.002019-01-31
Real GDP207777020459200.01556760.0157861.01.00.1833332021-01-01
gdp growth1.42.2-0.36363611.01.00.8416672021-01-01
gdp growth annual0.3-3.2-1.09375-0.8846151.0-1.00.2666672021-01-01
gdp growth annualized5.69.3-0.3978491.153851.01.00.852021-01-01
gold reserves1.73-0.433333-0.5-1.0-1.002015-10-01
government budget-15.9-1.59.6-27.5-1.0-1.002019-02-28
Government budget-31440-143701.187891.12519-1.0-1.00.8333332021-03-31
government debt to gdp117.886.80.3571430.7323531.01.002020-01-31
government revenues34517291770.1830210.3383871.01.012021-03-31
housing index116114.40.0139860.1132441.01.012021-05-31
housing starts282.07286.296-0.01476090.3306951.01.00.92021-06-30
imports50916.2498710.02095810.4219191.01.012021-05-31
industrial production1.83-4.58-1.39956-1.321621.01.00.42021-03-31
industrial production mom0.7-1.5-1.46667-1.129631.01.00.52021-03-31
inflation cpi3.63.40.0588235-101.01.00.03333332021-05-31
interbank rate0.440.44001.0-1.00.62021-06-01
interest rate0.250.250-0.857143-1.0-1.00.0252021-01-20
loans to private sector456553470238-0.0291023-0.152413-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
manufacturing pmi56.557-0.008771930.1820081.01.00.952021-06-30
money supply m04968024945860.004480523.777541.01.00.9833332021-03-31
money supply m1150000014606000.02697520.2647341.01.00.8666672021-04-30
money supply m2219973021826200.00783920.146781.01.00.8333332021-04-30
money supply m329442402966080-0.007363250.04525771.01.00.2333332021-04-30
Producer Price Index113.9114.4-0.004370630.1622451.01.00.9833332021-06-30
PPI Index3869173823150.01203720.05177361.01.00.852021-05-31
retail sales MoM-5.73.6-2.58333-0.770161-1.01.00.6666672021-04-30
retail sales56.724.71.29555-2.783021.01.00.12021-04-30
retail sales ex autos-7.24.3-2.67442-0.652174-1.01.00.6666672021-04-30
unemployment rate7.88.2-0.0487805-0.365854-1.0-1.00.052021-06-30
youth unemployment rate13.615.9-0.144654-0.50365-1.0-1.00.01666672021-06-30

Canada Citi economic surprise index analysis

Canada Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) are objective and quantitative measures of economic news. They are defined as weighted historical standard deviations of data surprises. A positive reading of Canada Economic Surprise Index suggests that economic releases have on balance [been] beating consensus. The indices are calculated daily in a rolling three-month window. The weights of economic indicators are derived from relative high-frequency spot FX impacts of 1 standard deviation data surprises. The indices also employ a time decay function to replicate the limited memory of markets.

Canada Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trend

Canada Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trend is in an uptrend when the last value is higher than its twelve-month moving average and its twelve-month moving average slope is positive (last twelve-month moving average is higher than the previous month twelve-month moving average) and vice-versa. MacroVar calculates the number of months the Canada Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has recorded new highs or lows. Canada Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trend change is assumed when the specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more.

Canada Citigroup Economic Surprise Index momentum

Canada Citigroup Economic Surprise Index momentum is monitored by calculating its long-term year over year (Y/Y) return and its short-term month on month (M/M) return.

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