China Citi economic surprise index
China Citi economic surprise index Chart
China Citi economic surprise index Statistics
Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the China China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index signals presented in the statistics table below.China Financial Markets
| Market | Symbol | Last | Mom | Trend | Exh | RSI | 1D% | 1W% | 1M% | 1Y% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shanghai Composite | SSEC | 3562.66 | 1 | 1 | 1.64904 | 66.1356 | 0.97 | -0.1 | 2.82 | 0.16105 |
| China ETF | FXI | 43.72 | 1 | 1 | 1.71797 | 62.6053 | -1.33 | -3.23 | -6.72 | 0.07797 |
| Chinese Yuan US Dollar (CNY/USD) | CNHUSD | 6.46 | -0.5 | -1 | -1.99133 | 37.2081 | 0.02 | -0.28 | -0.24 | -0.05619 |
| China 5-Year Bond Yield | CN.5Y | 2.75 | -1 | -0.25 | 0.68225 | 29.772 | -0.9 | -6.75 | -8.46 | 0.04504 |
| China 2-year bond yield | CN.2Y | 2.48 | -1 | -0.25 | 0.728 | 27.7591 | -1.31 | -9.98 | -10.4 | 0.03111 |
| China Yield Curve | CN.YC | 0.46 | 1 | 0.5 | -0.46123 | 67.3871 | 4.07 | 22.67 | 4.55 | 0.00688 |
| China Credit Default Swaps | CDS.China | 38.25 | -1 | -1 | -1.41448 | 40.9453 | 2.68 | 5.52 | -4.38 | -0.16463 |
| Export-Import Bank of China Credit Default Swaps | CDS.Export-Import-Bank-of-China | 35 | -1 | -1 | -1.37529 | 43.9717 | 0 | 4.48 | -6.67 | -0.14119 |
China Financial News Stream
China Macroeconomic Indicators
| Indicator | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend | Slope | ZS5Y | Update |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| balance of trade | 515.3 | 455.4 | 0.131533 | 0.150377 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2021-06-30 |
| bank lending rate | 2.95 | 2.95 | 0 | -0.106061 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 2020-05-30 |
| banks balance sheet | 2120 | 1500 | 0.413333 | 0.171271 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2021-06-30 |
| business confidence | 50.9 | 51 | -0.00196078 | 0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.391667 | 2021-06-30 |
| capacity utilization | 78.4 | 77.2 | 0.015544 | 0.0208333 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2021-06-01 |
| capital flows | -751 | -418.979 | 0.792453 | -2.0353 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.116667 | 2021-01-01 |
| car registrations | 1569000 | 1646040 | -0.0468032 | -0.110544 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.2 | 2021-06-30 |
| cash reserve ratio | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0 | -0.0740741 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.575 | 2020-07-30 |
| central bank balance sheet | 382315 | 382773 | -0.00119653 | 0.0609605 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.933333 | 2021-04-30 |
| composite pmi | 50.6 | 53.8 | -0.0594796 | -0.0915619 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0666667 | 2021-06-30 |
| consumer confidence | 121.8 | 121.5 | 0.00246914 | 0.0518135 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2021-05-31 |
| consumer price index cpi | 100.2 | 100.6 | -0.00397614 | -0.0923913 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0833333 | 2021-06-30 |
| core inflation rate | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.285714 | -0.181818 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.391667 | 2021-05-31 |
| current account | 751 | 1237.65 | -0.393205 | -2.86283 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0333333 | 2021-01-01 |
| current account to gdp | 1.9 | 0.8 | 1.375 | -0.795699 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 2020-01-31 |
| deposit interest rate | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.508333 | 2021-02-28 |
| exports | 2814.2 | 2639.22 | 0.0662999 | 0.322158 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.95 | 2021-06-30 |
| external debt | 24007.9 | 20573 | 0.166962 | 5.15335 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2019-02-28 |
| fiscal expenditure | 17157 | 17693 | -0.0302945 | -0.0630734 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.183333 | 2021-05-31 |
| foreign direct investment | 909.6 | 753 | 0.207968 | 0.339025 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.933333 | 2021-06-30 |
| foreign exchange reserves | 3214000 | 3220000 | -0.00186335 | 0.0326668 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.866667 | 2021-06-30 |
| gdp | 14722.7 | 14342.9 | 0.02648 | 2.20455 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2020-01-31 |
| Real GDP | 532167 | 249310 | 1.13456 | 0.249224 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 2021-06-30 |
| gdp growth | 1.3 | 0.4 | 2.25 | -0.1875 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 2021-04-01 |
| gdp growth annual | 7.9 | 18.3 | -0.568306 | 0.144928 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.85 | 2021-04-01 |
| gold reserves | 1948.31 | 1948.31 | 0 | 0.057393 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.55 | 2020-08-01 |
| government budget | -3.7 | -2.8 | 0.321429 | 8.02439 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 2020-01-31 |
| Government budget | -178.3 | 4.2 | -43.4524 | 0.0258918 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.5 | 2021-05-31 |
| government debt to gdp | 66.8 | 57.1 | 0.169877 | 1.47407 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2020-01-31 |
| government revenues | 18446 | 20893 | -0.117121 | 0.142238 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.833333 | 2021-05-31 |
| housing index | 4.7 | 4.9 | -0.0408163 | -0.0408163 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.6 | 2021-06-30 |
| imports | 2298.9 | 2183.83 | 0.0526918 | 0.367945 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.916667 | 2021-06-30 |
| industrial production | 8.3 | 8.8 | -0.0568182 | 0.729167 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.966667 | 2021-06-30 |
| industrial production mom | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.0769231 | -0.565891 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.15 | 2021-06-30 |
| inflation cpi | 1.1 | 1.3 | -0.153846 | -0.56 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0.166667 | 2021-06-30 |
| interbank rate | 3.47 | 3.46 | 0.00289017 | 0.0579268 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.708333 | 2021-05-03 |
| interest rate | 3.85 | 3.85 | 0 | -0.0941176 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.025 | 2020-05-20 |
| loan growth | 12.3 | 12.2 | 0.00819672 | -0.0681818 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.283333 | 2021-06-30 |
| loans to private sector | 36700 | 19200 | 0.911458 | 0.0582163 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.366667 | 2021-06-30 |
| manufacturing pmi | 51.3 | 52 | -0.0134615 | 0.00195312 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.383333 | 2021-06-30 |
| money supply m0 | 8430 | 8420 | 0.00118765 | 0.0609192 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.55 | 2021-06-30 |
| money supply m1 | 63750 | 61680 | 0.0335603 | 0.0549082 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.383333 | 2021-06-30 |
| money supply m2 | 231780 | 227500 | 0.0188132 | 0.085646 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.266667 | 2021-06-30 |
| non manufacturing pmi | 53.5 | 55.2 | -0.0307971 | -0.0165441 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.15 | 2021-06-30 |
| Producer Price Index | 107.4 | 105.7 | 0.0160833 | 0.0248092 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0 | 2021-05-31 |
| PPI Index | 8.8 | 9 | -0.0222222 | -3.93333 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.158333 | 2021-06-30 |
| retail sales MoM | 0.7 | 0.81 | -0.135802 | -0.333333 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.166667 | 2021-06-30 |
| retail sales | 12.1 | 12.4 | -0.0241935 | -7.72222 | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0166667 | 2021-06-30 |
| reverse repo rate | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0 | -0.137255 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.175 | 2020-04-30 |
| services pmi | 50.3 | 55.1 | -0.0871143 | -0.138699 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0666667 | 2021-06-30 |
| total vehicle sales | 2020000 | 2132800 | -0.0528882 | -0.121625 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.166667 | 2021-06-30 |
| unemployment rate | 5 | 5.1 | -0.0196078 | -0.152542 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0.0166667 | 2021-05-31 |
| China Leading Economic Conference Board Index | 160.6 | 158.7 | 0.0119723 | 0.0565789 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.516667 | 2020-11-01 |
| LEI - Consumer Expectation Index | 126.7 | 126.7 | 0 | 0.0620285 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.766667 | 2021-04-01 |
| LEI - New Export Orders | 50 | 50.6 | -0.0118577 | 0.48368 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.983333 | 2021-04-01 |
China Citi economic surprise index analysis
China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) are objective and quantitative measures of economic news. They are defined as weighted historical standard deviations of data surprises. A positive reading of China Economic Surprise Index suggests that economic releases have on balance [been] beating consensus. The indices are calculated daily in a rolling three-month window. The weights of economic indicators are derived from relative high-frequency spot FX impacts of 1 standard deviation data surprises. The indices also employ a time decay function to replicate the limited memory of markets.
China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trend
China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trend is in an uptrend when the last value is higher than its twelve-month moving average and its twelve-month moving average slope is positive (last twelve-month moving average is higher than the previous month twelve-month moving average) and vice-versa. MacroVar calculates the number of months the China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has recorded new highs or lows. China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trend change is assumed when the specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more.
China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index momentum
China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index momentum is monitored by calculating its long-term year over year (Y/Y) return and its short-term month on month (M/M) return.