China Citi economic surprise index

China Citi economic surprise index Chart

China Citi economic surprise index

China Citi economic surprise index Statistics

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the China China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index signals presented in the statistics table below.

China Financial Markets

MarketSymbolLastMomTrendExhRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
Shanghai CompositeSSEC3562.66111.6490466.13560.97-0.12.820.16105
China ETFFXI43.72111.7179762.6053-1.33-3.23-6.720.07797
Chinese Yuan US Dollar (CNY/USD)CNHUSD 6.46-0.5-1-1.9913337.20810.02-0.28-0.24-0.05619
China 5-Year Bond YieldCN.5Y2.75-1-0.250.6822529.772-0.9-6.75-8.460.04504
China 2-year bond yieldCN.2Y2.48-1-0.250.72827.7591-1.31-9.98-10.40.03111
China Yield CurveCN.YC0.4610.5-0.4612367.38714.0722.674.550.00688
China Credit Default SwapsCDS.China38.25-1-1-1.4144840.94532.685.52-4.38-0.16463
Export-Import Bank of China Credit Default SwapsCDS.Export-Import-Bank-of-China35-1-1-1.3752943.971704.48-6.67-0.14119

China Financial News Stream

China Macroeconomic Indicators

IndicatorActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
balance of trade515.3455.40.1315330.1503771.01.00.72021-06-30
bank lending rate2.952.950-0.106061-1.0-1.002020-05-30
banks balance sheet212015000.4133330.1712711.01.00.72021-06-30
business confidence50.951-0.001960780-1.0-1.00.3916672021-06-30
capacity utilization78.477.20.0155440.02083331.01.002021-06-01
capital flows-751-418.9790.792453-2.0353-1.0-1.00.1166672021-01-01
car registrations15690001646040-0.0468032-0.110544-1.0-1.00.22021-06-30
cash reserve ratio12.512.50-0.0740741-1.0-1.00.5752020-07-30
central bank balance sheet382315382773-0.001196530.06096051.01.00.9333332021-04-30
composite pmi50.653.8-0.0594796-0.0915619-1.0-1.00.06666672021-06-30
consumer confidence121.8121.50.002469140.05181351.01.00.72021-05-31
consumer price index cpi100.2100.6-0.00397614-0.0923913-1.0-1.00.08333332021-06-30
core inflation rate0.90.70.285714-0.1818181.0-1.00.3916672021-05-31
current account7511237.65-0.393205-2.862831.01.00.03333332021-01-01
current account to gdp1.90.81.375-0.795699-1.0-1.002020-01-31
deposit interest rate0.350.3500-1.0-1.00.5083332021-02-28
exports2814.22639.220.06629990.3221581.01.00.952021-06-30
external debt24007.9205730.1669625.153351.01.002019-02-28
fiscal expenditure1715717693-0.0302945-0.0630734-1.0-1.00.1833332021-05-31
foreign direct investment909.67530.2079680.3390251.01.00.9333332021-06-30
foreign exchange reserves32140003220000-0.001863350.03266681.01.00.8666672021-06-30
gdp14722.714342.90.026482.204551.01.002020-01-31
Real GDP5321672493101.134560.249224-1.01.00.12021-06-30
gdp growth1.30.42.25-0.1875-1.0-1.002021-04-01
gdp growth annual7.918.3-0.5683060.1449281.01.00.852021-04-01
gold reserves1948.311948.3100.0573931.01.00.552020-08-01
government budget-3.7-2.80.3214298.02439-1.0-1.002020-01-31
Government budget-178.34.2-43.45240.02589181.0-1.00.52021-05-31
government debt to gdp66.857.10.1698771.474071.01.002020-01-31
government revenues1844620893-0.1171210.1422381.01.00.8333332021-05-31
housing index4.74.9-0.0408163-0.04081631.0-1.00.62021-06-30
imports2298.92183.830.05269180.3679451.01.00.9166672021-06-30
industrial production8.38.8-0.05681820.729167-1.01.00.9666672021-06-30
industrial production mom0.560.520.0769231-0.565891-1.0-1.00.152021-06-30
inflation cpi1.11.3-0.153846-0.561.0-1.00.1666672021-06-30
interbank rate3.473.460.002890170.05792681.01.00.7083332021-05-03
interest rate3.853.850-0.0941176-1.0-1.00.0252020-05-20
loan growth12.312.20.00819672-0.0681818-1.0-1.00.2833332021-06-30
loans to private sector36700192000.9114580.05821631.01.00.3666672021-06-30
manufacturing pmi51.352-0.01346150.00195312-1.01.00.3833332021-06-30
money supply m0843084200.001187650.06091921.01.00.552021-06-30
money supply m163750616800.03356030.05490821.01.00.3833332021-06-30
money supply m22317802275000.01881320.0856461.01.00.2666672021-06-30
non manufacturing pmi53.555.2-0.0307971-0.0165441-1.0-1.00.152021-06-30
Producer Price Index107.4105.70.01608330.02480921.01.002021-05-31
PPI Index8.89-0.0222222-3.933331.01.00.1583332021-06-30
retail sales MoM0.70.81-0.135802-0.333333-1.0-1.00.1666672021-06-30
retail sales12.112.4-0.0241935-7.72222-1.01.00.01666672021-06-30
reverse repo rate2.22.20-0.137255-1.0-1.00.1752020-04-30
services pmi50.355.1-0.0871143-0.138699-1.0-1.00.06666672021-06-30
total vehicle sales20200002132800-0.0528882-0.121625-1.0-1.00.1666672021-06-30
unemployment rate55.1-0.0196078-0.152542-1.0-1.00.01666672021-05-31
China Leading Economic Conference Board Index160.6158.70.01197230.05657891.01.00.5166672020-11-01
LEI - Consumer Expectation Index126.7126.700.06202851.01.00.7666672021-04-01
LEI - New Export Orders5050.6-0.01185770.483681.01.00.9833332021-04-01

China Citi economic surprise index analysis

China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) are objective and quantitative measures of economic news. They are defined as weighted historical standard deviations of data surprises. A positive reading of China Economic Surprise Index suggests that economic releases have on balance [been] beating consensus. The indices are calculated daily in a rolling three-month window. The weights of economic indicators are derived from relative high-frequency spot FX impacts of 1 standard deviation data surprises. The indices also employ a time decay function to replicate the limited memory of markets.

China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trend

China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trend is in an uptrend when the last value is higher than its twelve-month moving average and its twelve-month moving average slope is positive (last twelve-month moving average is higher than the previous month twelve-month moving average) and vice-versa. MacroVar calculates the number of months the China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has recorded new highs or lows. China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trend change is assumed when the specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more.

China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index momentum

China Citigroup Economic Surprise Index momentum is monitored by calculating its long-term year over year (Y/Y) return and its short-term month on month (M/M) return.

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