Commodities Overview

MacroVar monitors commodities markets using models for commodities prices analysis and multiple factors affecting them like global economic conditions, currencies, and seasonality. Learn how to analyze commodity markets using MacroVar commodities models.

Stocks   Price 1D% 1W% 1M% MV M T B Trend          Details 
S&P GSCI index 2404 0.04 -1.2 0 blank blank
S&P GSCI Energy 2404 0.04 -1.2 0 blank blank
S&P GSCI Agriculture 2404 0.04 -1.2 0 blank blank
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals 2404 0.04 -1.2 0 blank blank
S&P GSCI Precious Metals 2404 0.04 -1.2 0 blank blank
Baltic Dry Index 2404 0.04 -1.2 0 blank blank
Container Index 3565.33 0 -1.2 0 blank blank
Tanker Index 682 0.15 0 -1.73 blank blank

Energy Commodities

Stocks   Price 1D% 1W% 1M% MV M T B Trend          Details 
Brent 106.28 -1.2 0.12 11.19 blank blank
WTI 104.15 -0.97 -0.31 12.19 blank blank
Heating Oil 2.8781 1.8 0.1 13.15 blank blank
US NatGas 7.721 2.04 -14.63 -19.64 blank blank
EU NatGas 77.62 4.39 -6.09 3.28 blank blank
Coal 239.1 -0.06 8.19 21.31 blank blank

Precious Metals Commodities

Stocks   Price 1D% 1W% 1M% MV M T B Trend          Details 
Gold 1853.67 -0.49 3.05 2.04 blank blank
Silver 22.588 -0.19 4.2 1.35 blank blank
Platinum 944.10 1.16 -0.49 4.29 blank blank
Palladium 2260.12 3.79 1.46 21.35 blank blank

Industrial Commodities

Stocks   Price 1D% 1W% 1M% MV M T B Trend          Details 
Iron Ore 145.5 -1.02 1.39 17.81 blank blank
Copper 4.3235 0.98 0.09 -1.86 blank blank
Nickel 31864.44 -3.35 2.12 7.45 blank blank
Aluminum 3188 -2.83 3.71 6.89 blank blank
Zinc 3674 -1.82 1.7 3.43 blank blank
Tin 43110 0.42 0.14 8 blank blank

Agriculture Commodities

Stocks   Price 1D% 1W% 1M% MV M T B Trend          Details 
Corn 645 0.55 3.95 7.68 blank blank
Wheat 805.5 4.41 5.54 6.3 blank blank
Oats 744 -1.62 1.78 15.17 blank blank
Rice 14.87 0.78 -2.65 4.35 blank blank
Soybeans 1590 1 2.35 13.63 blank blank
Soybean Meal 429.4 -0.35 15.7 10.7 blank blank
Soybean Oil 79.75 -0.42 -1.2 0 blank blank
Sugar 18.80 -0.27 0.22 -0.38 blank blank
Coffee 255.1 -0.04 5.48 5.92 blank blank
Cocoa 2766 -0.72 3.67 8.09 blank blank
OJ 141 0.93 1.51 -2.69 blank blank

Livestock Commodities

Stocks   Price 1D% 1W% 1M% MV M T B Trend          Details 
Live Cattle 141.85 -0.35 -0.14 3.86 blank blank
Feeder Cattle 166.225 -0.3 0.08 2.69 blank blank
Lean Hogs 90.6 0.47 4.11 14.9 blank blank

MV Risk Management Model

Stocks   Price 1D% 1W% 1M% MV M T B Trend          Details 
MacroVar Risk Index High 0.6 0.3 -1.2 0 blank blank
Equity Risk Low 1.7 0.3 -1.2 0 blank blank
Credit Risk Medium -2.5 0.3 -1.2 0 blank blank
US Banks Risk Medium 1.5 0.3 -1.2 0 blank blank
EU Banks Risk Medium 0.5 0.3 -1.2 0 blank blank
UK Banks Risk Medium 1.4 0.3 -1.2 0 blank blank
Insurance Risk High 0.7 0.3 -1.2 0 blank blank
Liquidity Risk High -1.4 0.3 -1.2 0 blank blank
Sovereign Risk High -1.8 0.3 -1.2 0 blank blank
Emerging Risk High 0.9 0.3 -1.2 0 blank blank
Currency Risk High 1.5 0.3 -1.2 0 blank blank
Commodity Risk High 2.5 0.3 -1.2 0 blank blank

Commodities Analysis

Commodities are goods used in the production of other goods and services. Commodities are grouped into Energy Commodities, Metals, Precious Metals, Softs and Grains. Each commodity group is affected by different sets of factors.

MacroVar Quantitative Signals

MacroVar models monitor different quantitative values for all commodities markets. The most important commodities prices indicators are: 1. MacroVar Trend Indicator, 2. MacroVar Momentum Indicator, 3. Year on Year momentum, 4. 3m, 5. 1m, 6. 1w
MacroVar commodities trend indicator is compiled from signals compiles from different timeframes. Commodities trend indicator ranges from -100 to +100. A commodities prices technical rollover is identified when MacroVar trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative. MacroVar commodities momentum indicator monitors price action for different timeframes of commodities. Momentum indicator ranges from -100 to +100.
Learn more on MacroVar trend strength indicator and MacroVar momentum strength indicator.

Commodities Factors

Commodities prices are affected by multiple factors. Click a specific commodity from the table above to explore the commodity’s factors, signals, and price dynamics. MacroVar monitors the following types of factors affecting commodities:

US Dollar
Commodities are exchanged using US dollars. When the US dollar rises value it causes a drop across all commodities prices. The US dollar is affected by many factors like the US monetary policy and fiscal policy. Learn more about the factors affecting the US Dollar.

Commodities and the Global Economy momentum

Energy commodities and metal commodities used in manufacturing are cyclical and closely correlated with global economic growth. The most important commodities considered leading indicators of the global economy are crude oil and copper.
Crude oil demand depends on global trade hence it is intricately linked to global economic growth. Copper is the main metal used in most sectors of the economy from construction to electronics and power generation and transmission. Shipping is a commodity related sector which is also affected by global economic growth.
MacroVar monitors both commodities prices dynamics closely versus the Global Manufacturing PMI which is a leading indicator of global economic growth. Large divergences between commodities and Global PMI momentum measured by year over year return may signify commodity trading opportunities.

Commodities and Global Risk

Precious metals are considered low-risk safe assets during increased global market risk. Funds flow to precious metals in anticipation of fiscal and monetary policy stimuli programs which normally bring inflationary conditions and currency depreciations or devaluations. Gold is the most important safe asset followed by silver platinum and palladium. Silver, platinum and palladium are considered precious metals but since they are also used as basic metals in manufacturing, they are also affected by the global economy.

Commodities Seasonality

Some commodities are heavily affected by seasonality. MacroVar monitors seasonality for the following commodities: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Lumber, Sugar, Corn, Baltic Dry Index, Copper, Silver, Palladium, Cotton. Check our guide on how MacroVar monitors seasonality for financial markets.

Demand / Supply Dynamics

Commodity prices are determined by demand and supply dynamics. Commodities supply shocks like the Vale dam disaster or extreme weather conditions like floods often lead to supply disruptions and sudden spikes in commodity prices. Some commodities are affected by political crisis in commodity producing countries.

Crude Oil

The main sources for monitoring the physical demand and supply of the crude oil market are OPEC, and IEA reports and actions.

Platinum & Palladium

John Matthey produces detailed reports for the demand / supply dynamics of the physical market for platinum and palladium.

Weather

Agriculture commodities are affected by weather conditions. Extreme weather phenomena like spring floods have historically caused commodities prices spikes due to supply shocks mainly for food commodities like corn, wheat, rice, soybeans, and coffee.
Weather forecasts are particularly useful in monitoring when trading food commodities. US weather forecasts are provided by NOAA.
Aura commodities provides live monitoring of global weather conditions and detailed reports for demand and supply dynamics for the following food commodities: corn, soybeans, wheat, cocoa, coffee, cotton, sugar, and palm oil.

Commodities and Commitment of Traders Report

The COT report is used by MacroVar to analyze the sentiment of financial institutions and hedge funds about commodities monitored. Check our guide on how to analyze the cot report.

Commodities Markets vs ETF

ETFs comprised of commodities producing companies are closely correlated with the spot price of these commodities. MacroVar monitors the correlations of those pairs looking for divergence investment opportunities.

Commodities Markets vs commodity producing countries

The economies and currencies of commodity producing countries for a specific commodity are leading indicators of specific commodities. MacroVar monitors correlations between commodity prices and currencies of these countries. For example, MacroVar monitors the correlation between crude oil and the Russian Rubble since Russian economy is heavily exposed in the production of crude oil.

Commodities Markets analyzed

MacroVar analyzes the following commodities grouped by type:

  • Energy Commodities: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, Uranium
  • Metals: Copper, Iron Ore, Aluminum, Nickel
  • Precious Metals: Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium
  • Soft Commodities: Rubber, Lumber, Cotton, Platinum, Coffee, Cocoa, Sugar, Orange Juice
  • Food Commodities: Corn, Wheat, Oat, Rice, Soybeans, Soybean Oil, Soybean meal, Feeder Cattle
  • Shipping: Baltic Dry Index, Baltic Capesize Index, Baltic Panamax Index, Baltic Supramax Index, Baltic Handysize Index, Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, Baltic Clean Tanker Index, China Bulk Freight Index, China Container freight index