US Wheat closed up by 5.88% to 710.75 on 23 January 2021 and +11.96% on a weekly basis. US Wheat momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. US Wheat trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. US Wheat momentum exhaustion is 2.28537 indicating US Wheat is oversold.US Wheat RSI is 68.6304 .
US Wheat Chart
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US Wheat closed at 710.75 on 23 January 2021. US Wheat trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. US Wheat momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. US Wheat momentum exhaustion is 2.28537 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating US Wheat is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. US Wheat RSI was last calculated at 68.6304. US Wheat moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 621.081 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 604.998 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 549.796 in an uptrend. US Wheat annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 5.88%, and weekly return was last recorded at 11.96%. US Wheat histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 24.1822%, US Wheat alpha None, US Wheat beta None and US Wheat maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor US Wheat statistics based on historical data since 1970.
Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVar US Wheat momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The
US Wheat momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index CDFI. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. US Wheat return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1.
US Wheat BADI momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when
US Wheat momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
US Wheat Trend
US Wheat trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. US Wheat trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. US Wheat Closing price vs
US Wheat moving average (MA) calculation: If
US Wheat is greater than US Wheat MA value is +1, else -1, 2. US Wheat Moving average slope calculation: if current
US Wheat moving average is higher than the previous MA,
US Wheat upward slope +1, else -1
US Wheat trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator.
US Wheat trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when US Wheat trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The US Wheat 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend.
US Wheat is in an uptrend when US Wheat price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the
US Wheat 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the
US Wheat oscillator and US Wheat RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
US Wheat Oscillator
The US Wheat oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current
US Wheat price versus US Wheat 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the
US Wheat oscillator is:
US Wheat oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days
US Wheat simple moving average price) / (250 days US Wheat price standard deviation)
US Wheat oversold conditions
US Wheat is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the
US Wheat is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the
US Wheat oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the
US Wheat oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of
US Wheat quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the
US Wheat RSI.
US Wheat overbought conditions
US Wheat is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the
US Wheat is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the
US Wheat oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the
US Wheat quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
US Wheat RSI Indicator
The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when US Wheat is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During
US Wheat uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
US Wheat Returns
MacroVar calculates US Wheat returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is: