Croatia Economy

Croatia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -10.0 by -35.06% on July 2020 from -15.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -327.27%. Croatia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.025.Croatia’s inflation cpi icnreased to -0.2 by 100.0% on November 2020 from -0.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s inflation cpi decreased by -133.33%. Croatia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.375.Croatia’s unemployment rate icnreased to 9.3 by 2.2% on November 2020 from 9.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s unemployment rate increased by 20.78%. Croatia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 9.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.86667.

Croatia Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Croatia Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Croatia’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Croatia macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Croatia Macro Model

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Croatia Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual -0.7 -7 -0.9 -1.38889 1.0 -1.0 0.416667 2021-01-01
inflation cpi 2 2.1 -0.047619 -4.33333 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 7.5 8.2 -0.0853659 -0.175824 -1.0 -1.0 0.483333 2021-06-30
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 103.5 99.7 0.0381143 0.374502 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 332329 329684 0.00802283 0.139323 1.0 1.0 1 2021-01-31
government debt to gdp 88.7 72.8 0.218407 1.27436 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 50975.9 50901.3 0.00146558 0.136384 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-03-31
foreign exchange reserves 21087.5 20721.1 0.0176825 0.339714 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -1362.5 -306.4 3.4468 -0.254324 -1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-01-30
current account to gdp 2.5 3.5 -0.285714 -1.38462 1.0 1.0 0 2018-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 2.5 2.5 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.508333 2019-09-30
central bank balance sheet 174200 177122 -0.0164971 0.169536 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-02-28
banks balance sheet 467419 465568 0.00397579 0.0767964 1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-02-28
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -7749 -4424 0.751582 -8.65711 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-31
government revenues 45672 40803 0.119329 0.0317392 1.0 1.0 0 2020-07-31
fiscal expenditure 58034 50204 0.155964 0.360895 1.0 1.0 0 2020-10-30

Croatia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -10.0 by -35.06% on July 2020 from -15.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -327.27%. Croatia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.025.Croatia’s inflation cpi icnreased to -0.2 by 100.0% on November 2020 from -0.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s inflation cpi decreased by -133.33%. Croatia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.375.Croatia’s unemployment rate icnreased to 9.3 by 2.2% on November 2020 from 9.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s unemployment rate increased by 20.78%. Croatia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 9.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.86667.Croatia’s business confidence icnreased to -13.9 by 11.2% on November 2020 from -12.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s business confidence decreased by -251.09%. Croatia’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -13.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.925.Croatia’s consumer confidence decreased to -18.8 by -0.53% on November 2020 from -18.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s consumer confidence increased by 469.7%. Croatia’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -18.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.9583.

 

Croatia Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 5.3 6.3 -0.15873 -1.30636 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-06-30
ESI - Economic Composite 103.5 99.7 0.0381143 0.374502 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector 5.2 -3.6 -2.44444 -1.17687 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -10.5 -14.9 -0.295302 -0.599237 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Construction sector 3.2 -3.4 -1.94118 -1.14159 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-04-01
Retail sector -12.5 -8.8 0.420455 -0.696602 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
Services sector -8.2 -9.2 -0.108696 -0.846729 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01

Croatia’s business confidence icnreased to -13.9 by 11.2% on November 2020 from -12.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s business confidence decreased by -251.09%. Croatia’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -13.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.925.Croatia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 85.8 by -294.0% on January 2021 from 88.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -2400.0%. Croatia’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 85.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 93.0083.Croatia’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -13.9 by 1120.0% on January 2021 from -12.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -25109.0%. Croatia’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -13.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.925.Croatia’s Consumer sector decreased to -18.8 by -53.0% on January 2021 from -18.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Consumer sector increased by 46970.0%. Croatia’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -18.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.9583.Croatia’s Construction sector icnreased to -10.0 by 2500.0% on January 2021 from -8.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Construction sector decreased by -19091.0%. Croatia’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.5.Croatia’s Retail sector icnreased to -29.6 by 1298.0% on January 2021 from -26.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Retail sector decreased by -28272.0%. Croatia’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -29.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.3583.Croatia’s Services sector icnreased to -34.7 by 3144.0% on January 2021 from -26.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Services sector decreased by -24280.0%. Croatia’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -34.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -18.8833.

Croatia Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -8.4 -6.2 0.354839 -0.468354 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-06-30
car registrations 6887 4467 0.541751 0.652351 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-06-30
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -20 -26.1 -0.233716 -0.58159 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) 7.3 2 2.65 -1.36869 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 16.9 18.4 -0.0815217 -0.0231214 -1.0 -1.0 0.533333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 35.6 26.2 0.358779 -0.265979 -1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -18.2 -24 -0.241667 -0.494444 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -28.3 -26.4 0.0719697 0.387255 -1.0 -1.0 0.983333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 2.3 1.7 0.352941 -0.477273 -1.0 -1.0 0.4 2021-04-01

Croatia’s consumer confidence decreased to -18.8 by -0.53% on November 2020 from -18.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s consumer confidence increased by 469.7%. Croatia’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -18.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.9583.Croatia’s car registrations decreased to 2646.0 by -14.7% on November 2020 from 3102.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s car registrations decreased by -23.48%. Croatia’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 2646.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3171.42.Croatia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -35.5 by 143.0% on January 2021 from -35.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 22569.0%. Croatia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -35.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.5667.Croatia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased to -3.2 by -3191.0% on January 2021 from -4.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -14384.0%. Croatia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -3.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.30833.Croatia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased to 15.4 by -1492.0% on January 2021 from 18.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) increased by 548.0%. Croatia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 15.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18.5667.Croatia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased to 43.7 by -135.0% on January 2021 from 44.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased by -374167.0%. Croatia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 43.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 28.4333.Croatia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -25.4 by 120.0% on January 2021 from -25.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 11344.0%. Croatia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -25.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.35.Croatia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) icnreased to -30.3 by 594.0% on January 2021 from -28.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) increased by 3060.0%. Croatia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -30.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.7667.Croatia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to 1.7 by -5952.0% on January 2021 from 4.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased by -3462.0%. Croatia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 1.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.15.

Croatia Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector 5.2 -3.6 -2.44444 -1.17687 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -22.6 -29.1 -0.223368 -0.429293 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 23.6 11.5 1.05217 -3.80952 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 10.4 -2.1 -5.95238 -1.8062 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -29 -33.9 -0.144543 -0.442308 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -8.9 -8.1 0.0987654 -2.43548 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 29.3 10.3 1.84466 -1.69267 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
industrial production 15.8 17.3 -0.0867052 -2.27419 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-05-31
industrial production mom -2 -2.1 -0.047619 0.111111 -1.0 -1.0 0.75 2021-05-31

Croatia’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -13.9 by 1120.0% on January 2021 from -12.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -25109.0%. Croatia’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -13.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.925.Croatia’s Manufacturing – Order Books icnreased to -37.8 by 2642.0% on January 2021 from -29.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 17794.0%. Croatia’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -37.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -30.3.Croatia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) icnreased to -6.6 by 23000.0% on January 2021 from -2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -16168.0%. Croatia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -6.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.408333.Croatia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) icnreased to -21.4 by 5735.0% on January 2021 from -13.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -19030.0%. Croatia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of -21.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.59167.Croatia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books icnreased to -44.8 by 1200.0% on January 2021 from -40.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 5610.0%. Croatia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -44.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -39.175.Croatia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased to 1.1 by -37500.0% on January 2021 from -0.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -12037.0%. Croatia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of 1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.175.Croatia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to -2.8 by -6410.0% on January 2021 from -7.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -10782.0%. Croatia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -2.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.39167.Croatia’s industrial production decreased to -1.7 by -177.27% on November 2020 from 2.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s industrial production increased by 325.0%. Croatia’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -1.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.65.Croatia’s industrial production mom icnreased to 2.9 by 70.59% on October 2020 from 1.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s industrial production mom decreased by -390.0%. Croatia’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 2.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.233333.

Croatia Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector -8.2 -9.2 -0.108696 -0.846729 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 4.1 4.5 -0.0888889 -1.31783 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) -1.6 1.4 -2.14286 -0.919192 1.0 1.0 0.333333 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) -13.2 -13.2 0 -0.717345 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) -15.5 -18.7 -0.171123 -0.601542 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) -12 -4.9 1.44898 -0.215686 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 2.4 -8.8 -1.27273 -1.10811 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01

Croatia’s Services sector icnreased to -34.7 by 3144.0% on January 2021 from -26.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Services sector decreased by -24280.0%. Croatia’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -34.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -18.8833.Croatia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -17.6 by 15507.0% on January 2021 from -6.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -18934.0%. Croatia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -17.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.725.Croatia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -7.9 by 16333.0% on January 2021 from -3.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -18977.0%. Croatia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -7.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.38333.Croatia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -41.8 by 1547.0% on January 2021 from -36.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -27787.0%. Croatia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -41.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.0667.Croatia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -44.8 by 2342.0% on January 2021 from -36.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -26350.0%. Croatia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -44.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.025.Croatia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) icnreased to -28.6 by 16729.0% on January 2021 from -10.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -102258.0%. Croatia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -28.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.3583.Croatia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased to -3.3 by -16471.0% on January 2021 from 5.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -13511.0%. Croatia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -3.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.35.

Croatia Retail Sector

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector -12.5 -8.8 0.420455 -0.696602 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) -19.7 -13 0.515385 -0.737333 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 5.2 -1.4 -4.71429 -1.30769 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) -26 -21.4 0.214953 -0.209726 1.0 1.0 0.516667 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels 9.5 1.8 4.27778 -0.572072 -1.0 -1.0 0.116667 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) -2.1 -3.1 -0.322581 -0.969298 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) -4.9 -4.5 0.0888889 -0.817844 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
retail sales 16.5 34.4 -0.520349 -3.11538 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-05-31
retail sales MoM -2.1 -1.9 0.105263 -11.5 -1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-30

Croatia’s Retail sector icnreased to -29.6 by 1298.0% on January 2021 from -26.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Retail sector decreased by -28272.0%. Croatia’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -29.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.3583.Croatia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -30.0 by -1304.0% on January 2021 from -34.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -24563.0%. Croatia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -30.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.1833.Croatia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -0.9 by -8302.0% on January 2021 from -5.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -11837.0%. Croatia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -0.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.9.Croatia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -45.5 by 3037.0% on January 2021 from -34.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -26667.0%. Croatia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -45.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.7333.Croatia’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased to 15.9 by -2356.0% on January 2021 from 20.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Retail – Stock Levels increased by 5588.0%. Croatia’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 15.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.3417.Croatia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -27.3 by 1870.0% on January 2021 from -23.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -18639.0%. Croatia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -27.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.96667.Croatia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -3.6 by -6364.0% on January 2021 from -9.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -12195.0%. Croatia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -3.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.39167.Croatia’s retail sales decreased to -0.7 by -73.08% on November 2020 from -2.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s retail sales decreased by -128.0%. Croatia’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of -0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.73333.Croatia’s retail sales MoM decreased to 1.5 by -58.33% on November 2020 from 3.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s retail sales MoM increased by 650.0%. Croatia’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of 1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.375.

Croatia Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector 3.2 -3.4 -1.94118 -1.14159 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -11.2 -19.3 -0.419689 -0.684507 1.0 1.0 0.533333 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 16 7 1.28571 -13.3077 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 17.7 12.4 0.427419 -2.80612 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) -2.7 -9.3 -0.709677 -0.922857 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 21.3 18.9 0.126984 2.1791 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 19.2 23.9 -0.196653 -0.0153846 -1.0 -1.0 0.733333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 14 8.5 0.647059 0.944444 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 37.1 36.2 0.0248619 0.800971 1.0 1.0 0.833333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 0.1 1.2 -0.916667 -0.99115 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 21.3 19.4 0.0979381 0.44898 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 8.7 14.5 -0.4 -0.789855 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2021-04-01

Croatia’s Construction sector icnreased to -10.0 by 2500.0% on January 2021 from -8.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Construction sector decreased by -19091.0%. Croatia’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.5.Croatia’s Construction – Current Order Books icnreased to -24.0 by 2000.0% on January 2021 from -20.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased by -250000.0%. Croatia’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -24.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.9167.Croatia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months icnreased to -5.0 by 6667.0% on January 2021 from -3.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -12000.0%. Croatia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -5.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.41667.Croatia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to 3.0 by -4000.0% on January 2021 from 5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -8571.0%. Croatia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.08333.Croatia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -24.0 by 5000.0% on January 2021 from -16.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -25000.0%. Croatia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -24.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.3333.Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) icnreased to 15.0 by 1538.0% on January 2021 from 13.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -1176.0%. Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 15.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 16.9167.Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) icnreased to 30.0 by 2000.0% on January 2021 from 25.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 20000.0%. Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 30.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 21.0.Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased to 6.0 by -6471.0% on January 2021 from 17.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -7692.0%. Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.75.Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) On a year on year basis Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -4583.0%. Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 26.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 32.6667.Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased to 1.0 by -5000.0% on January 2021 from 2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased by -5000.0%. Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.5.Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) icnreased to 20.0 by 2500.0% on January 2021 from 16.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 3333.0%. Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 20.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.25.Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 19.0 by 556.0% on January 2021 from 18.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 21667.0%. Croatia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 19.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17.75.

Croatia GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 87892 96599 -0.0901355 0.0174687 -1.0 1.0 0.483333 2020-08-01
gdp growth annual -0.7 -7 -0.9 -1.38889 1.0 -1.0 0.416667 2021-01-01
gdp 60.4156 60.9914 -0.00944068 0.00386655 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
gdp growth 2.7 8.2 -0.670732 4.4 1.0 1.0 0.95 2020-10-01

Croatia’s Real GDP icnreased to 96599.0 by 18.06% on July 2020 from 81823.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s Real GDP increased by 0.23%. Croatia’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 96599.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 90314.0.Croatia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -10.0 by -35.06% on July 2020 from -15.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -327.27%. Croatia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.025.Croatia’s gdp decreased to 60.4156 by -0.94% on January 2019 from 60.9914 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s gdp increased by 0.39%. Croatia’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 60.4156 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 58.7638.Croatia’s gdp growth decreased to 6.9 by -146.0% on July 2020 from -15.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s gdp growth increased by 392.86%. Croatia’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 6.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.316667.

Croatia inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 2 2.1 -0.047619 -4.33333 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 0.4 0.6 -0.333333 -0.714286 -1.0 -1.0 0.275 2021-05-31
consumer price index cpi 104.6 104.4 0.00191571 0.0214844 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
Producer Price Index 103 102.2 0.00782779 0.0706861 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
PPI Index 7.2 7.6 -0.0526316 -2.71429 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-06-30

Croatia’s inflation cpi icnreased to -0.2 by 100.0% on November 2020 from -0.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s inflation cpi decreased by -133.33%. Croatia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.375.Croatia’s core inflation rate decreased to 0.7 by -41.67% on September 2020 from 1.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s core inflation rate decreased by -56.25%. Croatia’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.23333.Croatia’s consumer price index cpi decreased to 102.8 by -0.29% on November 2020 from 103.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s consumer price index cpi decreased by -0.19%. Croatia’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 102.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 102.492.Croatia’s Producer Price Index decreased to 94.4 by -1.56% on October 2020 from 95.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s Producer Price Index decreased by -6.44%. Croatia’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 94.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 97.725.Croatia’s PPI Index decreased to -3.6 by -35.71% on November 2020 from -5.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s PPI Index decreased by -3700.0%. Croatia’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -3.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.175.

Croatia Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -7.4 0.3 -25.6667 1.64286 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget -7749 -4424 0.751582 -8.65711 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-31
government revenues 45672 40803 0.119329 0.0317392 1.0 1.0 0 2020-07-31
fiscal expenditure 58034 50204 0.155964 0.360895 1.0 1.0 0 2020-10-30

Croatia’s Government budget icnreased to -3712.0 by 37.89% on January 2020 from -2692.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s Government budget increased by 9.82%. Croatia’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -3712.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 415.917.Croatia’s government revenues decreased to 41930.0 by -16.05% on January 2020 from 49948.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s government revenues increased by 12.05%. Croatia’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 41930.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 45151.4.Croatia’s fiscal expenditure decreased to 45642.0 by -13.29% on January 2020 from 52640.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s fiscal expenditure increased by 11.87%. Croatia’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 45642.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 44735.6.

Croatia Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 2.5 2.5 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.508333 2019-09-30
central bank balance sheet 174200 177122 -0.0164971 0.169536 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-02-28
banks balance sheet 467419 465568 0.00397579 0.0767964 1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-02-28
money supply m0 35638.9 34926.5 0.0203971 0.0733542 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-05-31
money supply m1 172478 167380 0.0304576 0.179837 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-05-31

Croatia’s interest rate Croatia’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 2.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.5.Croatia’s central bank balance sheet icnreased to 165296.0 by 1.49% on September 2020 from 162874.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s central bank balance sheet increased by 6.4%. Croatia’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 165296.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 149599.0.Croatia’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 458918.0 by 0.21% on September 2020 from 457959.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s banks balance sheet increased by 6.21%. Croatia’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 458918.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 442877.0.

Croatia Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 103.9 97.6 0.0645492 0.351105 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 7.5 8.2 -0.0853659 -0.175824 -1.0 -1.0 0.483333 2021-06-30
youth unemployment rate 20.5 20.5 0 0.178161 -1.0 1.0 0.833333 2021-03-31
long term unemployment rate 3.4 2.8 0.214286 -0.15 1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-03-01

Croatia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 96.9 by -300.0% on January 2021 from 99.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Croatia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -1199.0%. Croatia’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 96.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 97.2083.Croatia’s unemployment rate icnreased to 9.3 by 2.2% on November 2020 from 9.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s unemployment rate increased by 20.78%. Croatia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 9.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.86667.Croatia’s youth unemployment rate On a year on year basis Croatia’s youth unemployment rate increased by 46.95%. Croatia’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 24.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.6.Croatia’s long term unemployment rate decreased to 1.6 by -20.0% on April 2020 from 2.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -68.63%. Croatia’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 1.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.85833.

Croatia Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -1362.5 -306.4 3.4468 -0.254324 -1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-01-30
current account to gdp 2.5 3.5 -0.285714 -1.38462 1.0 1.0 0 2018-01-31
exports 11948.5 9578.1 0.247481 0.315962 1.0 1.0 1 2021-03-31
imports 18036.9 15629.1 0.154059 0.192712 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-03-31
balance of trade -5355.03 -5604.19 -0.0444596 0.0594642 -1.0 -1.0 0.533333 2021-05-31

Croatia’s current account decreased to -666.7 by -53.6% on April 2020 from -1436.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s current account increased by 247.78%. Croatia’s current account trend is down since the current value of -666.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 289.517.Croatia’s current account to gdp decreased to 2.5 by -28.57% on January 2018 from 3.5 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s current account to gdp decreased by -138.46%. Croatia’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of 2.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.575.Croatia’s exports icnreased to 10400.0 by 37.31% on September 2020 from 7574.34 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s exports increased by 6.97%. Croatia’s exports trend is down since the current value of 10400.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9056.31.Croatia’s imports icnreased to 14400.0 by 15.44% on September 2020 from 12473.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s imports decreased by -4.8%. Croatia’s imports trend is down since the current value of 14400.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14218.1.Croatia’s balance of trade decreased to -4000.0 by -18.36% on September 2020 from -4899.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s balance of trade decreased by -25.98%. Croatia’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -4000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5158.5.Croatia’s bank lending rate decreased to 2.83 by -9.29% on November 2020 from 3.12 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s bank lending rate decreased by -9.58%. Croatia’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 2.83 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.04083.

Croatia Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 21087.5 20721.1 0.0176825 0.339714 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31

Croatia’s foreign exchange reserves icnreased to 18583.1 by 2.33% on November 2020 from 18160.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.33%. Croatia’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 18583.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17812.5.Croatia’s government debt icnreased to 325866.0 by 0.16% on August 2020 from 325355.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s government debt increased by 9.67%. Croatia’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 325866.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 305153.0.Croatia’s government debt to gdp decreased to 73.2 by -2.01% on January 2019 from 74.7 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s government debt to gdp increased by 96.25%. Croatia’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 73.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 69.3583.Croatia’s external debt decreased to 47766.7 by -2.23% on September 2020 from 48855.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s external debt increased by 1.56%. Croatia’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 47766.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46321.5.

Croatia Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 332329 329684 0.00802283 0.139323 1.0 1.0 1 2021-01-31
government debt to gdp 88.7 72.8 0.218407 1.27436 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 50975.9 50901.3 0.00146558 0.136384 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-03-31

Croatia’s government debt icnreased to 325866.0 by 0.16% on August 2020 from 325355.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s government debt increased by 9.67%. Croatia’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 325866.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 305153.0.Croatia’s government debt to gdp decreased to 73.2 by -2.01% on January 2019 from 74.7 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s government debt to gdp increased by 96.25%. Croatia’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 73.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 69.3583.Croatia’s external debt decreased to 47766.7 by -2.23% on September 2020 from 48855.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s external debt increased by 1.56%. Croatia’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 47766.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46321.5.

Croatia Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 0.18 0.18 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.408333 2021-06-01
deposit interest rate 0.25 0.25 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.608333 2013-03-31
bank lending rate 2.82 3.08 -0.0844156 -0.0472973 -1.0 -1.0 0.683333 2021-05-31
loans to private sector 31444.9 31590.4 -0.00460583 -0.0566209 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-05-31
cash reserve ratio 9 9 0 -0.25 -1.0 -1.0 0.025 2020-05-31

Croatia’s interbank rate On a year on year basis Croatia’s interbank rate decreased by -8.33%. Croatia’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of 0.225 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.22375.Croatia’s deposit interest rate Croatia’s deposit interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.25 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.25.Croatia’s balance of trade decreased to -4000.0 by -18.36% on September 2020 from -4899.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s balance of trade decreased by -25.98%. Croatia’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -4000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5158.5.Croatia’s bank lending rate decreased to 2.83 by -9.29% on November 2020 from 3.12 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s bank lending rate decreased by -9.58%. Croatia’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 2.83 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.04083.Croatia’s loans to private sector icnreased to 32284.1 by 0.44% on November 2020 from 32143.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Croatia’s loans to private sector increased by 1.61%. Croatia’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 32284.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 32586.2.Croatia’s cash reserve ratio On a year on year basis Croatia’s cash reserve ratio decreased by -25.0%. Croatia’s cash reserve ratio trend is down since the current value of 9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.33.

 

Croatia macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Croatia economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Croatia Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Croatia Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Croatia’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
Read more on how to analyze a country’s macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world.Click here to learn more.

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