MacroVar for Investors & Traders

MacroVar is a free financial and economic data analysis platform designed by institutional investors to help you discover trading opportunities and investment strategies based on your risk / return profile across all major financial markets.

If you are new to investing and trading, click here to use MacroVar free financial education resources.

MacroVar uses a top down framework to analyse markets and economies and multi-factor models to identify trading opportunities across 1,400 financial assets. Learn more about MacroVar Top Down analysis, Financial Assets and Factors monitored.

MacroVar also provides members with access to historical data for more than 4,000 financial and macroeconomic series including major and more advanced asset classes like credit derivatives. Click here to explore MacroVar database coverage.

MacroVar is free for everyone. Get free access to MacroVar Global economic and financial data analysis by signing up now. Click here to learn how it works.

You can access historical data and trading signals generated by MacroVar algorithms for any financial or macroeconomic indicator as well archives of macroeconomic calendar and financial news using Excel or the Python API by upgrading to MacroVar Pro.

MacroVar Top Down Framework

MacroVar top down framework analyses the major components driving the global economy which in turn drive all financial markets. The major factors monitored and analysed are:

  1. Global economic growth expectations analysis
  2. Global Inflation outlook
  3. Global Liquidity conditions
  4. Global Risk environment
  5. Major Financial Assets performance

Global Economic Growth Expectations

The most important factor to monitor is global economic growth trends and momentum. Individual country economic growth expectations are gauged using principally each country’s Manufacturing PMI and other business and consumer confidence indicators. Global growth is gauged by calculating MacroVar Global PMI based on each country’s weighting to Global GDP of the 35 largest economies monitored and Manufacturing PMI. Special attention is given to the top four largest economies (United States, Eurozone, China, Japan) comprising more than 50% of global GDP. Lastly, global macroeconomic growth breadth is monitored. MacroVar uses the following signals to analyse Macro trends

The Global Economy section presents the current global macroeconomic conditions using different statistics. The largest four economies in the world closely monitored are the US, Eurozone, China and Japan economies comprising more than 50% of Global GDP. MacroVar also monitors the relative performance of Developed and Emerging economies. link to country analysis

Global Liquidity conditions

Global liquidity is a major factor affecting all financial markets. It is of paramount importance to monitor Global Liquidity of the four major central banks in the world namely the Federal Reserve (US), ECB (Eurozone), PBoC (China) and BOJ (China).

MacroVar monitors central banks actions by closely monitoring published statistics and news flow.

The Central Banks section presents quantitative data and news flow for the four major central banks and secondarily to the rest of the 31 countries monitored.

Global Risk

Global financial risk conditions are especially important since they affect all financial assets. MacroVar risk index is composed of various financial risk factors to provide an overview of global market risk conditions. The risk index is used for adjusting portfolio risk. MacroVar risk management section provides free current risk analysis.

Global Financial Assets

MacroVar uses a top down framework to analyse financial markets as well. The major financial markets which affect the rest of the other financial assets are:

Stocks

  • Global Stocks: ACWI
  • US Stocks: S&P 500
  • EU Stocks: EuroStoxx

Bonds

  • US 10-year treasury rate: US10Y
  • German bund rate: DE10Y
  • US Short-term Yield Curve: US2s5s
  • US Long-term Yield Curve: US2s10s

Currencies

  • US Dollar Index: DXY
  • Risk Off Currencies: USDJPY, USDCHF
  • Emerging Market Currencies: CEW

Commodities

  • Crude Oil
  • Copper
  • Gold

Equity Risk

Credit Risk

  • US Corporate Risk: CDX IG, CDX HY
  • EU Corporate Risk: ITRAXX EU
  • Emerging Corporate Risk: CDX EEM

Global Macro

  • Global PMI
  • Developed Economies
  • Emerging Markets

Financial Assets Logic

The basic logic on how financial assets behaves during different economic conditions is provided below. There are periods where correlations between financial assets breakdown and where economic data are disconnected from financial markets but the core market logic is described below.

There are two market environments: Risk On periods during which funds flow from safe assets to risky assets and Risk Off periods where funds flow from risky assets to low-risk assets.

Risk Assets (Risk-On): Stocks, Cyclical Commodities, Cyclical Sectors / Industries, High Yield Bonds, Cyclical Currencies, Emerging Markets (Capital flows to emerging markets in search for higher yields, higher growth rates and hence profits)

Safe Assets (Risk-Off): US Treasuries, German Bunds, Defensive Sectors / Industries, US Dollar DXY, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, Gold

The most important asset correlation is between the US stocks and US Bonds. During risk on periods US stocks rise while US bonds are sold and vice-versa. Since equities are closely linked with credit, MacroVar monitors closely the performance of corporate bonds for each sector in US and EU markets.

During Risk on Periods the markets behave as follows:

  • Global Risk
    • Equity Risk (VIX, VSTOXX): falling
    • Credit Risk (CDX IG, ITRAXX IG, BofA High Yield credit spreads): falling
    • Volatility Term Structure: steep contango
    • MacroVar Risk Index: falling
    • MacroVar Risk On/Off monitor Ratios: falling
  • Stocks
    • Global Stocks rising (ideally this should occur with global bond market weakness)
    • US Stock Breadth rising
    • Emerging Market Stocks rising (often outperforming developed markets like US & EU)
    • Global Stock Breadth rising
  • Stock Sectors
    • Cyclical sectors outperform Defensive sectors
    • Sector breadth rising
  • Bonds (MacroVar monitors 2-year, 5-year and 10-year bonds)
    • Safe Bonds
      • US Treasuries falling (yields rising)
      • German Bunds falling (yields rising)
    • Risky Bonds
      • US High Yield Bonds rising (yields falling)
      • Europe: Club Med Bonds rising (yields falling)
      • Emerging Markets Bonds rising (yields falling)
    • Bond interest rates breadth rising (funds move out of bonds into stocks hence yield rates rise)
  • Yield Curve
    • Yield Curve Bear steepening (on the contrary a Yield Curve bull re-steepening signifies Risk Off environment)
    • Fed Funds futures above US 2-year bonds implying strong economic growth and FED hawkish stance
    • Yield Curve Steepening Breadth rising
    • Eurodollar Futures rising
  • Currencies
    • US Dollar (DXY) falling
    • Safe Currencies (JPY, CHF) falling
    • Risky Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) rising
    • Currencies Breadth (vs the US Dollar) rising
  • Commodities
    • Energy (Crude Oil) rising
    • Metals (Copper) rising
    • Safe commodities (Gold) falling
    • Commodities Breadth rising
  • Macroeconomic Conditions
    • Global PMI trend and momentum rising
    • Global PMI breadth monitored strong

MacroVar World Markets section is an overview of the major financial markets monitored. Click any of the financial assets to examine the signals of the factors affecting it as well as the asset’s trend, momentum and different statistics monitored.

Country Analysis

MacroVar analyses the economic and financial conditions of the largest 35 economies in the world by monitoring 40 economic and financial indicators for each country.

Country Economic Snapshot

The two most important economic indicators of a country are real economic growth expectations and inflation. An economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (government & central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations. The performance of each financial asset for each economic environment is explained below.

MacroVar uses leading economic indicators for each country to predict economic and inflation expectations. More specifically, US ISM PMI components and ESI components for all European countries and the Eurozone are used for structuring this model.

MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of a country’s economy by analysing more than 30 indicators for each country. Read more about analysing a country’s macroeconomics in detail.

MacroVar Factors

Financial markets are linked with economic growth expectations and other related markets. MacroVar monitors various macroeconomic and financial factors affecting each financial market. A brief list is provided below. From World Markets or Sectors click on a specific financial market to examine the related factors.

  • Global Manufacturing PMI vs Global Stock Market, US Dollar, Emerging Markets, US 10 year treasury
  • Emerging Markets vs US 10 year treasury, US Dollar
  • Global Manufacturing PMI vs Cyclical Commodities (Metals, Energy, Shipping)
  • Country Stock Market vs Yield Curve, Manufacturing PMI, 10-year Bond, ZEW
  • Country Bonds vs Manufacturing PMI, ESI, Inflation, ZEW, Inflation Expectations (ISM, ESI)
  • Country Currency vs 10-year Bond, Stock Market, Central Bank B/S, 10-Year bond yield differential, 2-year bond yield differential, Manufacturing PMI, ZEW
  • Country ETF vs Manufacturing PMI, ESI, Country Currency, 10-year Bond, CDS, ESI
  • US & EU Stock Market vs Credit Index (YoY) – Index and Sector Analysis
  • Commodity related currencies vs Metals, Energy
  • Gold vs US 5Y5Y
  • Construction ETF vs Building Permits
  • Commodities ETF vs Commodity Futures
  • Bank Sector ETF vs Yield Curve
  • Equity vs Credit Volatility Indices
MacroVar How it Works

Step 1: Sign Up

To sign up use your Google or Facebook automatic sign in options. Alternatively, click register to create an account using your email.

Step 2: Select your User type

Once you sign up, you will be prompted to select your user type. If you will use MacroVar for your personal finances, select

Step 3: Newsfeed

MacroVar main page is Newsfeed where you will automatically be notified on economic and financial developments. You can customise the markets, economies and factors you want to be notified by personalising your profile.

Step 4: Personalise your Profile

To get personalised financial and economic analysis and trading opportunities from MacroVar you must complete your profile.

Step 5: Personalised Newsletter

Every morning MacroVar will send you a newsletter customised to your profile, with analysis and reports of trading opportunities and economic and financial analysis affecting your Portfolio

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