Lithuania Economy

Lithuania’s gdp growth annual decreased to 0.1 by -102.17% on July 2020 from -4.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s gdp growth annual decreased by -97.37%. Lithuania’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.94167.Lithuania’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.6 by -14.29% on October 2020 from 0.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s inflation cpi decreased by -62.5%. Lithuania’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.49167.Lithuania’s unemployment rate icnreased to 15.5 by 4.03% on November 2020 from 14.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s unemployment rate increased by 84.52%. Lithuania’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 15.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.9333.

Lithuania News

Lithuania Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 4.6 5.3 -13.21 9.52 UP UP 76.67 2022-05-26
inflation cpi 18.9 16.8 12.5 425 UP UP 100 2022-06-11
unemployment rate 8.8 9.5 -7.37 -38.46 Down Down 45 2022-06-14
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 108.2 103.4 0.0464217 0.314702 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 22968.3 22797.4 0.75 3.17 Down UP 86.67 2022-06-14
government debt to gdp 44.3 46.6 -4.94 58.21 UP UP 0 2022-04-29
external debt 39560.1 42447.8 -6.8 16.41 UP UP 98.33 2022-06-24
foreign exchange reserves 5101.5 5492.3 -7.12 16.74 UP UP 88.33 2022-06-14
gold reserves 5.82 5.8 0.00344828 0 1.0 -1.0 0.491667 2020-07-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -468.5 -342.7 36.71 372.18 Down Down 1.67 2022-06-16
current account to gdp 8.3 3.3 1.51515 -1.62879 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
central bank balance sheet 33369.4 32781.1 1.79 16.53 UP UP 100 2022-05-26
banks balance sheet 44727.6 44788.5 -0.14 28.58 UP UP 98.33 2022-05-26
money supply m2 41591.2 41837.7 -0.59 6.15 Down UP 91.67 2022-05-26
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -925.5 -637.3 0.45222 -5.26498 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2020-07-01
government revenues 4309.8 4438.5 -0.0289963 0.250377 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2020-07-01
fiscal expenditure 5235.3 5075.8 0.0314236 0.620936 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2020-07-01

Lithuania’s gdp growth annual decreased to 0.1 by -102.17% on July 2020 from -4.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s gdp growth annual decreased by -97.37%. Lithuania’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.94167.Lithuania’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.6 by -14.29% on October 2020 from 0.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s inflation cpi decreased by -62.5%. Lithuania’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.49167.Lithuania’s unemployment rate icnreased to 15.5 by 4.03% on November 2020 from 14.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s unemployment rate increased by 84.52%. Lithuania’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 15.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.9333.Lithuania’s business confidence icnreased to -10.6 by 79.66% on November 2020 from -5.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s business confidence increased by 30.86%. Lithuania’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -10.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.9.Lithuania’s consumer confidence decreased to -3.0 by -25.0% on December 2020 from -4.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s consumer confidence decreased by -400.0%. Lithuania’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.58333.

Lithuania Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 2.8 1.9 47.37 -58.82 UP Down 88.33 2022-06-06
ESI - Economic Composite 108.2 103.4 0.0464217 0.314702 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector 3.2 -2.9 -2.10345 -1.1448 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Consumer sector 2.9 -1.5 -2.93333 -1.21481 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-04-01
Construction sector -16.8 -26.5 -0.366038 -0.550802 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-04-01
Retail sector 3.3 -3.7 -1.89189 -1.165 1.0 1.0 0.183333 2021-04-01
Services sector 8.4 5.7 0.473684 -1.28188 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01

Lithuania’s business confidence icnreased to -10.6 by 79.66% on November 2020 from -5.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s business confidence increased by 30.86%. Lithuania’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -10.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.9.Lithuania’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 95.6 by -392.0% on January 2021 from 99.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -1156.0%. Lithuania’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 95.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 97.1583.Lithuania’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -8.6 by 2647.0% on January 2021 from -6.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Manufacturing sector increased by 7200.0%. Lithuania’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -8.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.075.Lithuania’s Consumer sector decreased to -4.8 by -130000.0% on January 2021 from 0.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Consumer sector decreased by -20909.0%. Lithuania’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -4.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.94167.Lithuania’s Construction sector icnreased to -25.0 by 870.0% on January 2021 from -23.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Construction sector increased by 3158.0%. Lithuania’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -25.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.4167.Lithuania’s Retail sector decreased to -4.1 by -20790.0% on January 2021 from 3.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Retail sector decreased by -13762.0%. Lithuania’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -4.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.25.Lithuania’s Services sector icnreased to -10.6 by 20286.0% on January 2021 from -3.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Services sector decreased by -13630.0%. Lithuania’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -10.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.04167.

Lithuania Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence 3 -2 -2.5 -1.1875 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-06-30
car registrations 2630 2349 11.96 -33.13 UP Down 41.67 2022-06-22
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -1.4 -5.3 -0.735849 -0.966019 1.0 1.0 0.55 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) 9.7 7.2 0.347222 -2 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 40.5 41.2 -0.0169903 -0.163223 1.0 -1.0 0.183333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 22.1 26.2 -0.156489 -0.616984 -1.0 -1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) 5.2 -4 -2.3 -4.71429 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) 5.2 0.2 25 -1.5977 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 26.2 22.2 0.18018 0.154185 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-04-01

Lithuania’s consumer confidence decreased to -3.0 by -25.0% on December 2020 from -4.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s consumer confidence decreased by -400.0%. Lithuania’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.58333.Lithuania’s car registrations icnreased to 4306.0 by 25.87% on November 2020 from 3421.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s car registrations decreased by -0.76%. Lithuania’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 4306.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3271.25.Lithuania’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -16.6 by 16349.0% on January 2021 from -6.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) decreased by -50488.0%. Lithuania’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -16.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.5417.Lithuania’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased to 1.8 by -7273.0% on January 2021 from 6.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -7662.0%. Lithuania’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 1.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.16667.Lithuania’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased to 32.2 by -62.0% on January 2021 from 32.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -2406.0%. Lithuania’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 32.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 41.8417.Lithuania’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 37.9 by 4921.0% on January 2021 from 25.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 35663.0%. Lithuania’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 37.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 26.75.Lithuania’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -3.7 by 175000.0% on January 2021 from -0.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) decreased by -26818.0%. Lithuania’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -3.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.25.Lithuania’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased to 0.1 by -9630.0% on January 2021 from 2.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased by -10167.0%. Lithuania’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.05833.Lithuania’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to 24.3 by -202.0% on January 2021 from 24.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Consumer – Households Financial situation increased by 2462.0%. Lithuania’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 24.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 22.5833.

Lithuania Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector 3.2 -2.9 -2.10345 -1.1448 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -22.3 -28.6 -0.22028 -0.405333 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 24.6 23.3 0.055794 -5.03279 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 8.4 -4.1 -3.04878 -3 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -25.1 -32.6 -0.230061 -0.402381 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -7.9 -7.4 0.0675676 -4.7619 -1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 24.1 12.7 0.897638 -1.99587 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
industrial production 7.2 18.8 -61.7 -71.2 Down Down 60 2022-06-23
industrial production mom -7.6 -6.7 13.43 -205.56 Down Down 3.33 2022-06-23
capacity utilization 77 72.4 0.0635359 -0.00645161 1.0 -1.0 0.25 2020-10-01

Lithuania’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -8.6 by 2647.0% on January 2021 from -6.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Manufacturing sector increased by 7200.0%. Lithuania’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -8.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.075.Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased to -31.0 by -432.0% on January 2021 from -32.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 3191.0%. Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -31.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -32.8167.Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) icnreased to 4.6 by 698.0% on January 2021 from 4.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) increased by 2778.0%. Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 4.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.541667.Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to 7.3 by -52941.0% on January 2021 from -1.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) increased by 3273.0%. Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of 7.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.625.Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books icnreased to -36.0 by 405.0% on January 2021 from -34.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 2203.0%. Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -36.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -36.125.Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) icnreased to -2.8 by 7500.0% on January 2021 from -1.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -17778.0%. Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of -2.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.85.Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to 2.4 by -7692.0% on January 2021 from 10.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -7857.0%. Lithuania’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 2.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.225.Lithuania’s industrial production decreased to 0.1 by -93.75% on November 2020 from 1.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s industrial production decreased by -95.83%. Lithuania’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of 0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.3.Lithuania’s industrial production mom decreased to 1.3 by -181.25% on November 2020 from -1.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s industrial production mom decreased by -61.76%. Lithuania’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 1.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.025.Lithuania’s capacity utilization icnreased to 73.4 by 2.09% on August 2020 from 71.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s capacity utilization decreased by -5.17%. Lithuania’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 73.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 75.8917.

Lithuania Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector 8.4 5.7 0.473684 -1.28188 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 18.3 9.5 0.926316 -1.41972 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 10 6.6 0.515152 -2.02041 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) 4.3 3.9 0.102564 -1.19907 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) 2.6 3.6 -0.277778 -1.10656 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) -4.2 -9 -0.533333 4.25 1.0 -1.0 0.966667 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 11.5 4.8 1.39583 -1.71875 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-01

Lithuania’s Services sector icnreased to -10.6 by 20286.0% on January 2021 from -3.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Services sector decreased by -13630.0%. Lithuania’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -10.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.04167.Lithuania’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -10.0 by -81429.0% on January 2021 from 1.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -13086.0%. Lithuania’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.541667.Lithuania’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to 1.8 by 80000.0% on January 2021 from 0.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -8525.0%. Lithuania’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 1.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.75833.Lithuania’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -10.9 by 6515.0% on January 2021 from -6.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -14378.0%. Lithuania’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.58333.Lithuania’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -11.0 by 10755.0% on January 2021 from -5.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -13642.0%. Lithuania’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.075.Lithuania’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased to -8.1 by -1474.0% on January 2021 from -9.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -14629.0%. Lithuania’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -8.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.69167.Lithuania’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased to -1.1 by -13929.0% on January 2021 from 2.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -10550.0%. Lithuania’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.86667.

 

Lithuania Retail Sector

 

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector 3.3 -3.7 -1.89189 -1.165 1.0 1.0 0.183333 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) 8.2 1.3 5.30769 -1.3037 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 8.1 7.4 0.0945946 -2.20896 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) -8.2 -16.7 -0.508982 -0.605769 1.0 1.0 0.4 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels -0.2 1 -1.2 -1.09091 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) 18.1 6.6 1.74242 -1.52161 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) 11.4 12.1 -0.0578512 -1.74026 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
retail sales 0.1 2.3 -95.65 -99.49 Down Down 10 2022-06-27
retail sales MoM 3.4 -0.6 -666.67 -40.35 UP Down 63.33 2022-06-27

Lithuania’s Retail sector decreased to -4.1 by -20790.0% on January 2021 from 3.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Retail sector decreased by -13762.0%. Lithuania’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -4.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.25.Lithuania’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -8.5 by -35758.0% on January 2021 from 3.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -16204.0%. Lithuania’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -8.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.025.Lithuania’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to 3.8 by 3103.0% on January 2021 from 2.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -5581.0%. Lithuania’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 3.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.28333.Lithuania’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -1.4 by -11429.0% on January 2021 from 9.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -10823.0%. Lithuania’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -1.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.875.Lithuania’s Retail – Stock Levels icnreased to 1.6 by 30000.0% on January 2021 from 0.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -4667.0%. Lithuania’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 1.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.64167.Lithuania’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -9.4 by -72667.0% on January 2021 from 1.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -15109.0%. Lithuania’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -9.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.50833.Lithuania’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 7.4 by -3273.0% on January 2021 from 11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -6667.0%. Lithuania’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 7.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.41667.Lithuania’s retail sales decreased to 6.8 by -15.0% on November 2020 from 8.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s retail sales increased by 70.0%. Lithuania’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 6.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.19167.Lithuania’s retail sales MoM decreased to -4.7 by -234.29% on November 2020 from 3.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s retail sales MoM increased by 23.68%. Lithuania’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of -4.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.03333.

Lithuania Construction Sector

 

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector -16.8 -26.5 -0.366038 -0.550802 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -40.3 -50.3 -0.198807 -0.0799087 1.0 1.0 0.333333 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 27.8 18.6 0.494624 1.55046 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 6.6 -2.8 -3.35714 -1.2129 1.0 1.0 0.4 2021-04-01
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) -11.4 -9.7 0.175258 -0.337209 1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 29.1 27.1 0.0738007 0.265217 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 27.3 30.2 -0.0960265 -0.0808081 -1.0 -1.0 0.466667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 16.2 12.5 0.296 1.74576 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 25.3 21.8 0.16055 0.277778 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 5 3.8 0.315789 -0.537037 1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 11 11.3 -0.0265487 -0.371429 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 18.6 25.6 -0.273438 -0.398058 -1.0 -1.0 0.15 2021-04-01

Lithuania’s Construction sector icnreased to -25.0 by 870.0% on January 2021 from -23.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Construction sector increased by 3158.0%. Lithuania’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -25.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.4167.Lithuania’s Construction – Current Order Books icnreased to -48.0 by 667.0% on January 2021 from -45.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 1429.0%. Lithuania’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -48.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -44.3333.Lithuania’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to -1.0 by -20000.0% on January 2021 from 1.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -10588.0%. Lithuania’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.66667.Lithuania’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -16667.0%. Lithuania’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.5.Lithuania’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -18.0 by 2857.0% on January 2021 from -14.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -190000.0%. Lithuania’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -18.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.75.Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased to 29.0 by -938.0% on January 2021 from 32.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -1714.0%. Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 29.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 30.25.Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) icnreased to 36.0 by 286.0% on January 2021 from 35.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 2000.0%. Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 36.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 32.1667.Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) icnreased to 7.0 by 1667.0% on January 2021 from 6.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -5882.0%. Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.08333.Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased to 20.0 by -476.0% on January 2021 from 21.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -2308.0%. Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 20.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 22.0833.Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) increased by 5000.0%. Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.75.Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased by -625.0%. Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 15.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.5.Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 17.0 by 4167.0% on January 2021 from 12.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 75000.0%. Lithuania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 17.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.1667.

Lithuania GDP

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 11666.6 11508 1.38 22.09 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
gdp growth annual 4.6 5.3 -13.21 9.52 UP UP 76.67 2022-05-26
gdp 54.2193 53.4552 0.0142942 0.364413 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
gdp growth 2 -0.3 -7.66667 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.841667 2021-01-01

Lithuania’s Real GDP icnreased to 10680.4 by 3.57% on May 2020 from 10312.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Real GDP increased by 18.22%. Lithuania’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 10680.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9917.91.Lithuania’s gdp growth annual decreased to 0.1 by -102.17% on July 2020 from -4.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s gdp growth annual decreased by -97.37%. Lithuania’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.94167.Lithuania’s gdp icnreased to 54.2193 by 1.43% on January 2019 from 53.4552 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s gdp increased by 36.44%. Lithuania’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 54.2193 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 45.2869.Lithuania’s gdp growth decreased to 3.8 by -164.41% on July 2020 from -5.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s gdp growth increased by 280.0%. Lithuania’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 3.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.65.

Lithuania inflation

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 18.9 16.8 12.5 425 UP UP 100 2022-06-11
core inflation rate 9.9 9.4 5.32 330.44 UP UP 100 2022-06-22
consumer price index cpi 136.6 133.5 2.32 18.89 UP UP 100 2022-06-11
Producer Price Index 134.1 129.8 3.31 30.8 UP UP 100 2022-06-14
PPI Index 30.9 28 10.36 161.86 UP UP 100 2022-06-11

Lithuania’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.6 by -14.29% on October 2020 from 0.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s inflation cpi decreased by -62.5%. Lithuania’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.49167.Lithuania’s core inflation rate decreased to 2.0 by -4.76% on November 2020 from 2.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s core inflation rate decreased by -16.67%. Lithuania’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.74167.Lithuania’s consumer price index cpi decreased to 111.3 by -0.18% on November 2020 from 111.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s consumer price index cpi increased by 0.58%. Lithuania’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 111.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 111.302.Lithuania’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 95.93 by 0.59% on November 2020 from 95.37 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Producer Price Index decreased by -8.29%. Lithuania’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 95.93 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 97.3158.Lithuania’s PPI Index decreased to -8.3 by -10.75% on November 2020 from -9.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s PPI Index increased by 315.0%. Lithuania’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -8.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.03333.

Lithuania Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -1 -7.3 -86.3 -89.01 UP UP 0 2022-04-29
Government budget -925.5 -637.3 0.45222 -5.26498 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2020-07-01
government revenues 4309.8 4438.5 -0.0289963 0.250377 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2020-07-01
fiscal expenditure 5235.3 5075.8 0.0314236 0.620936 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2020-07-01

Lithuania’s Government budget icnreased to -574.1 by 738.1% on January 2020 from -68.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s Government budget increased by 7658.11%. Lithuania’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -574.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.2.Lithuania’s government revenues decreased to 3734.0 by -24.97% on January 2020 from 4976.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s government revenues increased by 17.99%. Lithuania’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 3734.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3957.37.Lithuania’s fiscal expenditure decreased to 4308.1 by -14.6% on January 2020 from 5044.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s fiscal expenditure increased by 35.81%. Lithuania’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 4308.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3955.16.

Lithuania Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
central bank balance sheet 33369.4 32781.1 1.79 16.53 UP UP 100 2022-05-26
banks balance sheet 44727.6 44788.5 -0.14 28.58 UP UP 98.33 2022-05-26
money supply m0 8011.5 7887.1 1.58 8.18 UP UP 100 2022-05-26
money supply m1 29910 30236.2 -1.08 7.08 Down UP 90 2022-05-26
money supply m2 41591.2 41837.7 -0.59 6.15 Down UP 91.67 2022-05-26
money supply m3 41591.2 41837.7 -0.59 6.15 Down UP 91.67 2022-05-26

Lithuania’s central bank balance sheet icnreased to 27770.8 by 5.22% on October 2020 from 26394.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s central bank balance sheet increased by 51.09%. Lithuania’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 27770.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 22283.5.Lithuania’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 36967.2 by 2.83% on September 2020 from 35950.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s banks balance sheet increased by 23.34%. Lithuania’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 36967.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 33394.4.Lithuania’s money supply m2 icnreased to 36003.3 by 2.99% on October 2020 from 34957.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s money supply m2 increased by 22.93%. Lithuania’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 36003.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 32520.3.

Lithuania Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 106.3 102.2 0.0401174 0.210706 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 8.8 9.5 -7.37 -38.46 Down Down 45 2022-06-14
youth unemployment rate 12.9 11.5 12.17 15.18 Down UP 48.33 2022-06-06
long term unemployment rate 2.6 3 -13.33 44.44 UP UP 41.67 2022-05-26

Lithuania’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 99.8 by -138.0% on January 2021 from 101.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Lithuania’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -682.0%. Lithuania’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 99.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 99.45.Lithuania’s unemployment rate icnreased to 15.5 by 4.03% on November 2020 from 14.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s unemployment rate increased by 84.52%. Lithuania’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 15.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.9333.Lithuania’s youth unemployment rate icnreased to 27.1 by 8.84% on October 2020 from 24.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s youth unemployment rate increased by 93.57%. Lithuania’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 27.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19.725.Lithuania’s long term unemployment rate icnreased to 2.6 by 8.33% on February 2020 from 2.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -3.7%. Lithuania’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 2.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.14167.

Lithuania Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -468.5 -342.7 36.71 372.18 Down Down 1.67 2022-06-16
current account to gdp 8.3 3.3 1.51515 -1.62879 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 3466.8 3696 -6.2 29.65 UP UP 98.33 2022-06-11
imports 4282 4461.1 -4.01 45.18 UP UP 98.33 2022-06-11
balance of trade -815.2 -765.1 6.55 195.79 Down Down 1.67 2022-06-11

Lithuania’s current account icnreased to 547.43 by 36.16% on October 2020 from 402.06 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s current account increased by 34.64%. Lithuania’s current account trend is down since the current value of 547.43 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 298.391.Lithuania’s current account to gdp icnreased to 4.3 by 168.75% on January 2019 from 1.6 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s current account to gdp decreased by -127.74%. Lithuania’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of 4.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.983333.Lithuania’s exports icnreased to 2739.3 by 3.52% on October 2020 from 2646.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s exports decreased by -1.1%. Lithuania’s exports trend is down since the current value of 2739.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2356.02.Lithuania’s imports icnreased to 2687.5 by 7.18% on October 2020 from 2507.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s imports decreased by -5.86%. Lithuania’s imports trend is down since the current value of 2687.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2404.27.Lithuania’s balance of trade decreased to 51.8 by -62.65% on October 2020 from 138.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s balance of trade decreased by -160.94%. Lithuania’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 51.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -48.2667.

Lithuania Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 5101.5 5492.3 -7.12 16.74 UP UP 88.33 2022-06-14
gold reserves 5.82 5.8 0.00344828 0 1.0 -1.0 0.491667 2020-07-01

Lithuania’s foreign exchange reserves icnreased to 4414.1 by 1.71% on November 2020 from 4339.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 8.35%. Lithuania’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 4414.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4301.87.Lithuania’s gold reserves icnreased to 5.82 by 0.34% on July 2020 from 5.8 in the previous Quarterly. Lithuania’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 5.82 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.80667.Lithuania’s government debt icnreased to 22418.0 by 1.81% on November 2020 from 22019.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s government debt increased by 33.08%. Lithuania’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 22418.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19335.9.Lithuania’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 36.3 by 7.4% on January 2019 from 33.8 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s government debt to gdp increased by 128.3%. Lithuania’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 36.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 35.55.Lithuania’s external debt icnreased to 36308.0 by 6.04% on May 2020 from 34240.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s external debt increased by 8.02%. Lithuania’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 36308.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 34379.0.

Lithuania Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 22968.3 22797.4 0.75 3.17 Down UP 86.67 2022-06-14
government debt to gdp 44.3 46.6 -4.94 58.21 UP UP 0 2022-04-29
external debt 39560.1 42447.8 -6.8 16.41 UP UP 98.33 2022-06-24

Lithuania’s government debt icnreased to 22418.0 by 1.81% on November 2020 from 22019.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s government debt increased by 33.08%. Lithuania’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 22418.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19335.9.Lithuania’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 36.3 by 7.4% on January 2019 from 33.8 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s government debt to gdp increased by 128.3%. Lithuania’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 36.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 35.55.Lithuania’s external debt icnreased to 36308.0 by 6.04% on May 2020 from 34240.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s external debt increased by 8.02%. Lithuania’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 36308.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 34379.0.

 

Lithuania Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate -0.54 -0.55 -0.0181818 0.317073 -1.0 -1.0 0.733333 2021-02-28
loans to private sector 9530.8 9263.7 2.88 25.14 UP UP 100 2022-05-26

Lithuania’s interbank rate icnreased to -0.408 by 11.78% on August 2019 from -0.365 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s interbank rate increased by 27.5%. Lithuania’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of -0.408 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.32675.Lithuania’s loans to private sector decreased to 7679.4 by -1.84% on October 2020 from 7823.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Lithuania’s loans to private sector decreased by -12.06%. Lithuania’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 7679.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8141.83.

 

Lithuania macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Lithuania economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Lithuania Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Lithuania Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Lithuania’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish

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