Montenegro Economy

Montenegro’s gdp growth annual decreased to -20.2 by -848.15% on April 2020 from 2.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s gdp growth annual decreased by -467.27%. Montenegro’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -20.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.2.Montenegro’s inflation cpi icnreased to -1.0 by 66.67% on November 2020 from -0.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s inflation cpi decreased by -300.0%. Montenegro’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.0583333.Montenegro’s unemployment rate icnreased to 20.28 by 5.08% on November 2020 from 19.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s unemployment rate increased by 24.04%. Montenegro’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 20.28 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17.58.

Montenegro Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Montenegro Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. The Montenegro current macroeconomic conditions are analyzed below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Macro model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Montenegro Macro Model

 

Montenegro News

Montenegro Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual -6.4 -7.5 -0.146667 -2.33333 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-01
inflation cpi 2.4 2.2 0.0909091 -3.4 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-05-31
unemployment rate 24.01 24.3 -0.0119342 0.329457 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-06-30
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 91.9 77.7 0.182754 0.299859 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite 91.9 77.7 0.182754 0.299859 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 4097.44 4330.83 -0.0538904 0.537345 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
government debt to gdp 74.91 62.27 0.202987 1.31204 1.0 1.0 0 2018-02-28
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -160446 -228658 -0.298315 -0.471503 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-01-01
current account to gdp -15 -17 -0.117647 -0.517064 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -217444000 -70514100 2.0837 1.10475 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-04-01
government revenues 837078000 423414000 0.976973 0.0875225 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-04-01
fiscal expenditure 1054520000 493928000 1.13497 0.207895 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-04-01

Montenegro’s gdp growth annual decreased to -20.2 by -848.15% on April 2020 from 2.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s gdp growth annual decreased by -467.27%. Montenegro’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -20.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.2.Montenegro’s inflation cpi icnreased to -1.0 by 66.67% on November 2020 from -0.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s inflation cpi decreased by -300.0%. Montenegro’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.0583333.Montenegro’s unemployment rate icnreased to 20.28 by 5.08% on November 2020 from 19.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s unemployment rate increased by 24.04%. Montenegro’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 20.28 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17.58.Montenegro’s building permits decreased to 27.0 by -55.74% on January 2020 from 61.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s building permits decreased by -89.16%. Montenegro’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 27.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 110.0.

Montenegro Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 91.9 77.7 0.182754 0.299859 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite 91.9 77.7 0.182754 0.299859 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector -16.1 -25 -0.356 -0.240566 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -14.1 -20.1 -0.298507 -0.376106 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Construction sector -22.4 -26.3 -0.148289 0.931035 -1.0 -1.0 0.866667 2021-04-01
Retail sector -5.5 -18.3 -0.699454 -0.776423 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services sector -0.2 -23.2 -0.991379 -0.995763 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01

 

Montenegro’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 40.8 by -993.0% on January 2021 from 45.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -6114.0%. Montenegro’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 40.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 60.2167.Montenegro’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 40.8 by -993.0% on January 2021 from 45.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -6114.0%. Montenegro’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 40.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 60.2167.Montenegro’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -28.0 by 487.0% on January 2021 from -26.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -210000.0%. Montenegro’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -28.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.25.Montenegro’s Consumer sector icnreased to -30.7 by 4689.0% on January 2021 from -20.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Consumer sector increased by 39516.0%. Montenegro’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -30.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -18.6167.Montenegro’s Construction sector On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Construction sector decreased by -135000.0%. Montenegro’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -25.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.0833.Montenegro’s Retail sector decreased to -20.8 by -1333.0% on January 2021 from -24.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Retail sector decreased by -20947.0%. Montenegro’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -20.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.55.Montenegro’s Services sector decreased to -19.8 by -1681.0% on January 2021 from -23.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Services sector decreased by -24453.0%. Montenegro’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -19.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -18.5583.

Montenegro Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) 12.4 -2.3 -6.3913 -1.41611 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) 8.4 0.6 13 -1.68293 1.0 1.0 0.183333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 4.5 5.7 -0.210526 -0.347826 1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 18.9 29.4 -0.357143 -0.467606 -1.0 -1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -42.1 -44.5 -0.0539326 0.0395062 1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -41.5 -38.3 0.0835509 0.0323383 -1.0 -1.0 0.783333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 3.4 10.7 -0.682243 -0.613636 -1.0 -1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
retail sales yoy -6.4 -9.4 -0.319149 -2.01587 1.0 -1.0 0.233333 2021-03-31

Montenegro’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -23.9 by 9917.0% on January 2021 from -12.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 109500.0%. Montenegro’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -23.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.85.Montenegro’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -13.6 by 31212.0% on January 2021 from -3.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -35185.0%. Montenegro’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -13.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.375.Montenegro’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased to -1.4 by -7255.0% on January 2021 from -5.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -5484.0%. Montenegro’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -1.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.025.Montenegro’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 37.8 by 4104.0% on January 2021 from 26.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 55172.0%. Montenegro’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 37.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 24.1833.Montenegro’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -48.9 by 2074.0% on January 2021 from -40.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 12431.0%. Montenegro’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -48.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -36.1833.Montenegro’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) icnreased to -45.9 by 2339.0% on January 2021 from -37.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased by -1531.0%. Montenegro’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -45.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -44.275.Montenegro’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to 5.5 by -3820.0% on January 2021 from 8.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased by -3452.0%. Montenegro’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 5.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.41667.Montenegro’s retail sales yoy decreased to -11.9 by -14.39% on November 2020 from -13.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s retail sales yoy decreased by -342.86%. Montenegro’s retail sales yoy trend is down since the current value of -11.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.5583.

Montenegro Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector -16.1 -25 -0.356 -0.240566 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -55.2 -61.9 -0.108239 0.373134 1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 4 -4.4 -1.90909 -1.68966 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) -41.5 -34.4 0.206395 0.97619 1.0 -1.0 0.883333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -64 -73 -0.123288 0.0977702 1.0 -1.0 0.516667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -6.1 -3.2 0.90625 1.34615 -1.0 -1.0 0.883333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 1 -16.2 -1.06173 -1.03846 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
industrial production 9.3 23 -0.595652 -0.27907 1.0 -1.0 0.783333 2021-03-31
industrial production mom 4.6 10.1 -0.544554 -0.743017 1.0 -1.0 0.433333 2021-03-31

 

Montenegro’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -28.0 by 487.0% on January 2021 from -26.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -210000.0%. Montenegro’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -28.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.25.Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Order Books icnreased to -64.0 by 774.0% on January 2021 from -59.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 20047.0%. Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -64.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -43.0333.Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) icnreased to -21.8 by 6029.0% on January 2021 from -13.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -90741.0%. Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -21.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.48333.Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to -42.2 by -2724.0% on January 2021 from -58.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -146129.0%. Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of -42.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -30.2083.Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books icnreased to -70.1 by 370.0% on January 2021 from -67.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 7702.0%. Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -70.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -54.75.Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) icnreased to -6.7 by 3673.0% on January 2021 from -4.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -49412.0%. Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of -6.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.925.Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) icnreased to -26.6 by 391.0% on January 2021 from -25.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -19708.0%. Montenegro’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -26.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.58333.Montenegro’s industrial production decreased to -2.8 by -77.42% on July 2020 from -12.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s industrial production decreased by -86.07%. Montenegro’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -2.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.83333.Montenegro’s industrial production mom decreased to 36.4 by -828.0% on April 2020 from -5.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s industrial production mom increased by 1633.33%. Montenegro’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 36.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.36667.

Montenegro Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector -0.2 -23.2 -0.991379 -0.995763 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 21.6 -11.1 -2.94595 -1.66258 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) -1.4 -11.2 -0.875 -0.931707 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) -14.6 -31.8 -0.540881 -0.742049 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) -7.7 -26.6 -0.710526 -0.853053 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) -3.8 -2.8 0.357143 -0.486486 1.0 1.0 0.4 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 6.6 -10.6 -1.62264 -1.94286 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01

Montenegro’s Services sector decreased to -19.8 by -1681.0% on January 2021 from -23.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Services sector decreased by -24453.0%. Montenegro’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -19.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -18.5583.Montenegro’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 5.8 by -5167.0% on January 2021 from 12.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -7852.0%. Montenegro’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 5.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.2.Montenegro’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -3.6 by -46000.0% on January 2021 from 1.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) increased by 20000.0%. Montenegro’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -3.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.59167.Montenegro’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -32.5 by -2317.0% on January 2021 from -42.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -73726.0%. Montenegro’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -32.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -33.8083.Montenegro’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased to -32.9 by -1976.0% on January 2021 from -41.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -46556.0%. Montenegro’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -32.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -33.125.Montenegro’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased to 1.9 by -41667.0% on January 2021 from -0.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -2963.0%. Montenegro’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 1.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.58333.Montenegro’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased to 3.4 by -3818.0% on January 2021 from 5.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -6991.0%. Montenegro’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 3.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.73333.

Montenegro Retail Sector

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector -5.5 -18.3 -0.699454 -0.776423 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) 6.4 -24.5 -1.26122 -1.12724 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 17.3 8.7 0.988506 4.58065 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) -24.2 -24 0.00833333 2.66667 1.0 -1.0 1 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels 9.2 11.1 -0.171171 -0.333333 -1.0 -1.0 0.183333 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) 17 -19.9 -1.85427 -1.31776 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) -7.4 -11.6 -0.362069 -0.534591 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
retail sales MoM 15.1 8.6 0.755814 1.39683 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-03-31

Montenegro’s Retail sector decreased to -20.8 by -1333.0% on January 2021 from -24.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Retail sector decreased by -20947.0%. Montenegro’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -20.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.55.Montenegro’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -20.5 by -596.0% on January 2021 from -21.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -16833.0%. Montenegro’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -20.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.65.Montenegro’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -1.8 by -17200.0% on January 2021 from 2.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -13103.0%. Montenegro’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -1.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.958333.Montenegro’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -35.7 by -2404.0% on January 2021 from -47.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -23626.0%. Montenegro’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -35.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.2583.Montenegro’s Retail – Stock Levels icnreased to 16.9 by 1575.0% on January 2021 from 14.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Retail – Stock Levels increased by 21296.0%. Montenegro’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 16.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.8333.Montenegro’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -9.9 by -571.0% on January 2021 from -10.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -12742.0%. Montenegro’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -9.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.59167.Montenegro’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -4.7 by 930.0% on January 2021 from -4.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -13264.0%. Montenegro’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -4.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.9.Montenegro’s retail sales MoM icnreased to -7.3 by 508.33% on November 2020 from -1.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s retail sales MoM decreased by -22.34%. Montenegro’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of -7.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.408333.

Montenegro Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector -22.4 -26.3 -0.148289 0.931035 -1.0 -1.0 0.866667 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -39.6 -35.7 0.109244 0.98995 -1.0 -1.0 0.833333 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 1.6 -9.7 -1.16495 -1.8 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months -5.2 -16.9 -0.692308 0.529412 1.0 -1.0 0.833333 2021-04-01
building permits 69 35 0.971429 -0.749091 1.0 -1.0 0 2020-10-01
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) -12.2 -25.4 -0.519685 -0.260606 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 3.9 4.1 -0.0487805 -0.25 1.0 -1.0 0.325 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 19.2 23.3 -0.175966 1.46154 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 10.6 10.9 -0.0275229 -0.258741 -1.0 -1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 12 8.4 0.428571 -0.480519 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 2.5 1.3 0.923077 0 1.0 -1.0 0.633333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 20.1 21.4 -0.0607477 -0.0428571 1.0 -1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 31.6 31.7 -0.00315457 0.229572 1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-04-01

Montenegro’s Construction sector On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Construction sector decreased by -135000.0%. Montenegro’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -25.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.0833.Montenegro’s Construction – Current Order Books icnreased to -37.0 by 882.0% on January 2021 from -34.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 36250.0%. Montenegro’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -37.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.4167.Montenegro’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to -5.0 by -2857.0% on January 2021 from -7.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months increased by 2500.0%. Montenegro’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -5.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.75.Montenegro’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to -14.0 by -1250.0% on January 2021 from -16.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -22727.0%. Montenegro’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -14.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.0833333.Montenegro’s building permits decreased to 27.0 by -55.74% on January 2020 from 61.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s building permits decreased by -89.16%. Montenegro’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 27.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 110.0.Montenegro’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased to -21.0 by -455.0% on January 2021 from -22.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -24000.0%. Montenegro’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -21.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.41667.Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -3333.0%. Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.25.Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) icnreased to 19.0 by 1176.0% on January 2021 from 17.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 5833.0%. Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 19.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.5.Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased to 12.0 by -1429.0% on January 2021 from 14.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -4286.0%. Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 12.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.9167.Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased to 15.0 by -1667.0% on January 2021 from 18.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -4000.0%. Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 15.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 23.4167.Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.75.Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased to 18.0 by -1000.0% on January 2021 from 20.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 3846.0%. Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 18.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17.0.Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 31.0 by 1071.0% on January 2021 from 28.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 4091.0%. Montenegro’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 31.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 26.6667.

Montenegro GDP

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 858.58 1158.28 -0.258746 0.0453978 -1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
gdp growth annual -6.4 -7.5 -0.146667 -2.33333 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-01
gdp 4.78 5.54 -0.137184 0.0505495 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31

Montenegro’s Real GDP icnreased to 918.913 by 1.03% on April 2020 from 909.536 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Real GDP decreased by -5.34%. Montenegro’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 918.913 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1132.92.Montenegro’s gdp growth annual decreased to -20.2 by -848.15% on April 2020 from 2.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s gdp growth annual decreased by -467.27%. Montenegro’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -20.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.2.Montenegro’s gdp decreased to 5.49 by -0.36% on January 2019 from 5.51 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s gdp increased by 49.18%. Montenegro’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 5.49 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.56917.

Montenegro inflation

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 2.4 2.2 0.0909091 -3.4 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-05-31
consumer price index cpi 107.1 106.8 0.00280899 0.0239006 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
Producer Price Index 171.6 170.5 0.00645161 0.0165877 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-03-31
PPI Index 1.6 0.9 0.777778 0.454545 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-03-31

Montenegro’s inflation cpi icnreased to -1.0 by 66.67% on November 2020 from -0.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s inflation cpi decreased by -300.0%. Montenegro’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.0583333.Montenegro’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 105.1 by 0.67% on September 2020 from 104.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s consumer price index cpi increased by 0.1%. Montenegro’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 105.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 105.108.Montenegro’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 169.7 by 0.59% on October 2020 from 168.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Producer Price Index decreased by -0.41%. Montenegro’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 169.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 169.383.Montenegro’s PPI Index icnreased to -0.6 by 50.0% on November 2020 from -0.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s PPI Index decreased by -126.09%. Montenegro’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.2.

Montenegro Government Policy

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -2 -4.6 -0.565217 -1.30303 1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-31
Government budget -217444000 -70514100 2.0837 1.10475 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-04-01
government revenues 837078000 423414000 0.976973 0.0875225 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-04-01
fiscal expenditure 1054520000 493928000 1.13497 0.207895 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-04-01

Montenegro’s Government budget icnreased to -217444000.0 by 208.37% on April 2020 from -70514100.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s Government budget increased by 110.47%. Montenegro’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -217444000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -96125200.0.Montenegro’s government revenues icnreased to 837078000.0 by 97.7% on April 2020 from 423414000.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s government revenues increased by 8.75%. Montenegro’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 837078000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1120490000.0.Montenegro’s fiscal expenditure icnreased to 1054520000.0 by 113.5% on April 2020 from 493928000.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s fiscal expenditure increased by 20.79%. Montenegro’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 1054520000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1216610000.0.

Montenegro Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update

Montenegro Employment

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 88.2 68.8 0.281977 0.169761 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-04-01
EEI - Employment Composite 88.2 68.8 0.281977 0.169761 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 24.01 24.3 -0.0119342 0.329457 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-06-30
long term unemployment rate 16 12.4 0.290323 0.24031 1.0 1.0 0 2020-10-01

Montenegro’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 79.8 by -209.0% on January 2021 from 81.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -2679.0%. Montenegro’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 79.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 89.425.Montenegro’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 79.8 by -209.0% on January 2021 from 81.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Montenegro’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -2679.0%. Montenegro’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 79.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 89.425.Montenegro’s unemployment rate icnreased to 20.28 by 5.08% on November 2020 from 19.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s unemployment rate increased by 24.04%. Montenegro’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 20.28 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17.58.Montenegro’s long term unemployment rate icnreased to 12.7 by 4.1% on October 2019 from 12.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -3.05%. Montenegro’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 12.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.975.

 

Montenegro Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -160446 -228658 -0.298315 -0.471503 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-01-01
current account to gdp -15 -17 -0.117647 -0.517064 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
exports 30702 41197 -0.254752 0.63378 -1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
imports 190953 185338 0.030296 0.261632 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-04-30
balance of trade -151138 -114066 0.325005 -0.153189 -1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-03-31

Montenegro’s current account decreased to -214530.0 by -33.24% on July 2020 from -321357.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s current account decreased by -185.34%. Montenegro’s current account trend is down since the current value of -214530.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -230920.0.Montenegro’s current account to gdp decreased to -18.5 by -2.12% on January 2018 from -18.9 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s current account to gdp increased by 115.12%. Montenegro’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of -18.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.275.Montenegro’s exports icnreased to 31894.0 by 33.79% on October 2020 from 23838.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s exports decreased by -19.37%. Montenegro’s exports trend is down since the current value of 31894.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 30158.5.Montenegro’s imports icnreased to 186745.0 by 3.91% on October 2020 from 179712.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s imports decreased by -18.52%. Montenegro’s imports trend is down since the current value of 186745.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 181172.0.Montenegro’s balance of trade decreased to -154851.0 by -0.66% on October 2020 from -155873.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s balance of trade decreased by -18.36%. Montenegro’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -154851.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -151002.0.

Montenegro Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update

Montenegro’s government debt decreased to 3133.68 by -1.44% on April 2019 from 3179.38 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s government debt increased by 32.7%. Montenegro’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 3133.68 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2760.52.Montenegro’s government debt to gdp decreased to 62.27 by -0.37% on January 2018 from 62.5 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s government debt to gdp increased by 62.58%. Montenegro’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 62.27 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.9975.

Montenegro Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 4097.44 4330.83 -0.0538904 0.537345 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
government debt to gdp 74.91 62.27 0.202987 1.31204 1.0 1.0 0 2018-02-28

Montenegro’s government debt decreased to 3133.68 by -1.44% on April 2019 from 3179.38 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s government debt increased by 32.7%. Montenegro’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 3133.68 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2760.52.Montenegro’s government debt to gdp decreased to 62.27 by -0.37% on January 2018 from 62.5 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Montenegro’s government debt to gdp increased by 62.58%. Montenegro’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 62.27 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.9975.

Montenegro Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update

Montenegro macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Montenegro economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Montenegro Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Montenegro Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Montenegro’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
Read more on how to analyze a country’s macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world. Click here to learn more.
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