Monitor and predict the growth prospects and potential risks of the Retail industry by examining the financial and macroeconomic factors affecting it and the latest Retail news tracked by MacroVar. Sign Up Free to get notified instantly on the latest Retail updates and get full access to MacroVar advanced analytics of Global Financial Markets, Economies and Financial Risk.
Click to explore the factors and the financial models used by MacroVar to analyze the Retail industry trend, growth prospects and risks.
Retail industry Markets
|US Retail industry||US.RETAIL||2214.14||-0.5||0.5||1.10465||50.2508||-0.99||2.96||3.21||0.38419|
|Europe Retail industry||EU.RETAIL||822.39||1||1||1.8024||61.4622||-2.75||-2.27||2.21||0.12352|
|STOXX Asia Pacific 600 Retail||APAC.RETAIL||260.96||0||1||1.7305||57.148||-1.67||-0.72||-1.39||0.14169|
|Eastern Europe Retail||EEU.RETAIL||500.46||0.5||1||2.35915||61.65||-2.19||-0.4||4.55||0.34126|
|US Retail Credit Spreads||US.RETAIL.CR||88.02||-0.5||-1||-1.1132||30.4795||1.78||6.3||1.17||-0.09925|
|Europe Retail Credit Spreads||EU.RETAIL.CR||84.84||0||-0.5||-1.14379||41.1002||-0.09||4.52||-0.83||-0.0193|
Retail industry News
Retail industry Analysis
MacroVar monitors the performance, risk, trend and momentum of the Retail industry by examining the stock and credit performance of major Retail companies across the US, Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia Pacific. Retail Stock performance is monitored by analyzing STOXX equity indices of major Retail companies while Retail credit performance is monitored by analyzing Markit iBoxx credit indices reflecting the performance of the Retail high yield corporate bond market.
MacroVar also monitors fundamental indicators closely linked to the Retail sector published monthly including analysis of sector specific PMI indicators, components of Manufacturing & Services PMI and Economic Sentiment Indicators analysis.
MacroVar also monitors other factors closely related to the Retail industry like closely related financial markets or macroeconmic indicators.
MacroVar estimates the following signals:: Retail momentum, Retail trend, Retail oscillator, Retail RSI and Retail returns.
Retail industry Description
The supersector of Retail includes the sectors of Food & Drug Retailers and General Retailers.
The sector of Food & Drug Retailers includes Drug Retailers and Food Retailers & Wholesalers.
The subsector of Drug Retailers includes Operators of pharmacies, including wholesalers and distributors catering to these businesses.
The subsector of Food Retailers & Wholesalers includes supermarkets, food-oriented convenience stores and other food retailers and distributors. Includes retailers of dietary supplements and vitamins.
The sector of General Retailers includes the subsectors of Apparel Retailers, Broadline Retailers, Home Improvement Retailers, Specialized Consumer Services and Specialty Retailers.
The subsector of Apparel Retailers includes Retailers and wholesalers specializing mainly in clothing, shoes, jewelry, sunglasses and other accessories.
The subsector of Broadline Retailers includes Retail outlets and wholesalers offering a wide variety of products including both hard goods and soft goods.
The subsector of Home Improvement Retailers includes Retailers and wholesalers concentrating on the sale of home improvement products, including garden equipment, carpets, wallpaper, paint, home furniture, blinds and curtains, and building materials.
The subsector of Specialized Consumer Services includes Providers of consumer services such as auction houses, day-care centers, dry cleaners, schools, consumer rental companies, veterinary clinics, hair salons and providers of funeral, lawn-maintenance, consumer-storage, heating and cooling installation and plumbing services.
The subsector of Specialty Retailers includes Retailers and wholesalers concentrating on a single class of goods, such as electronics, books, automotive parts or closeouts. Includes automobile dealerships, video rental stores, dollar stores, duty-free shops and automotive fuel stations not owned by oil companies.
Retail industry MomentumMomentum is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVar Retail momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Retail momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Retail . The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Retail return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Retail momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Retail momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
Retail industry trendRetail trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Retail trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Retail Closing price vs Retail moving average (MA) calculation: If Retail is greater than Retail MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Retail Moving average slope calculation: if current Retail moving average is higher than the previous MA, Retail upward slope +1, else -1
Retail trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Retail trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Retail trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The Retail 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Retail is in an uptrend when Retail price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Retail 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Retail oscillator and Retail RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
Retail industry oscillatorThe Retail oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the currentRetail price versus Retail 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Retail oscillator is:
Retail oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Retail simple moving average price) / (250 days Retail price standard deviation)
Retail oversold conditions
Retail is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Retail is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Retail oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Retail oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest ofRetail quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Retail RSI.
Retail overbought conditions
Retail is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Retail is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Retail oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Retail quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
Retail RSI indicatorThe RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Retail is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. DuringRetail uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
Retail industry returnsMacroVar calculates Retail returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:
Retail returns = (Retail Closing Price – Retail Previous Price)/(Retail Previous Price)