UK 2-year bond yield

UK 2-year bond yield closed up by 29.41% to 0.11 on 23 January 2021 and +27.91% on a weekly basis. UK 2-year bond yield momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 indicating positive momentum. UK 2-year bond yield trend is -100.0/100 indicating a negative trend. UK 2-year bond yield momentum exhaustion is -1.06069 indicating UK 2-year bond yield is oversold.UK 2-year bond yield RSI is 36.9577 .

UK 2-year bond yield Chart

UK 2-year bond yield

UK 2-year bond yield Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the UK 2-year bond yield. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the UK 2-year bond yield trading signals presented in the UK 2-year bond yield statistics table.

Security Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
UK 2-year bond yield UK.2Y 0.11 0.5 -1 -1.06069 36.9577 29.41 27.91 57.14 -1.27206

UK 2-year bond yield closed at 0.11 on 23 January 2021. UK 2-year bond yield trend was last calculated at -100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a negative trend based on MacroVar models. UK 2-year bond yield momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. UK 2-year bond yield momentum exhaustion is -1.06069 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating UK 2-year bond yield is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. UK 2-year bond yield RSI was last calculated at 36.9577. UK 2-year bond yield moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: -0.1058 in a downtrend , 1-quarter moving average: -0.05675 in a downtrend and 1-year moving average: 0.05354 in a downtrend. UK 2-year bond yield annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 29.41%, and weekly return was last recorded at 27.91%. UK 2-year bond yield histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 569.679%, UK 2-year bond yield alpha None, UK 2-year bond yield beta None and UK 2-year bond yield maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor UK 2-year bond yield statistics based on historical data since 1970.

UK 2-year bond yield News

UK 2-year bond yield Factors

UK 2-year bond yield

Factor Symbol Last Value Predicted Value R2 MacroVar Signal
UK 2Y vs FX UK.FACT.FX2Y

United Kingdom Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
FTSE 100 FTSE 6998.28 -0.5 0.25 0.35618 50.8123 -1.31 -1.07 0.5 -0.14712
United Kingdom ETF EWU 32.24 1 0.75 0.96217 63.0248 -2.24 -2.33 -1.23 -0.11483
British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) GBPUSD 0.73 -1 -1 -1.90518 37.1463 1.19 1.91 1.73 -0.04602
FLG UK 10Y Gilts FLG 129.37 1 0.25 -0.31563 51.1074 0.24 0.69 0.64 0.02662
United Kingdom 10-Year Bond Yield GB.10Y 0.61 -1 -0.75 -0.70063 42.3296 -3.33 -22.09 -23.85 -0.74093
UK 5-Year Bond Yield UK.5Y 0.31 0 -0.25 -0.37408 54.6394 1.97 -12.18 -12.68 -1.1311
UK 2-year bond yield UK.2Y 0.11 0.5 -1 -1.06069 36.9577 29.41 27.91 57.14 -1.27206
UK Yield Curve UK.YC 0.5 -0.5 0.75 1.11961 50.0309 -8.42 -28.26 -31.6 0.52632
United Kingdom Credit Default Swaps CDS.UK 10.5 -1 -1 -1.11007 42.4013 10.53 0 -4.55 -0.29029

United Kingdom Economic Indicators

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
balance of trade 884 -1595 -1.55423 -0.85357 1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-05-31
bank lending rate 1.1 1.1 0 -0.266667 -1.0 -1.0 0.025 2019-05-31
banks balance sheet 4277320 4250960 0.00620095 -0.00852553 1.0 -1.0 0.116667 2021-05-31
business confidence 38 -22 -2.72727 1.92308 1.0 1.0 0.9 2020-10-01
capacity utilization 73.9 64.5 0.145736 -0.127509 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2020-08-01
capital flows 27999 37969 -0.262583 0.361687 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-01-31
car registrations 186128 156737 0.187518 0.280313 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
central bank balance sheet 982439 981623 0.000831276 0.0410887 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-07-14
composite pmi 62.2 62.9 -0.0111288 0.303983 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
construction pmi 66.3 64.2 0.0327103 0.198915 1.0 1.0 0.833333 2021-06-30
consumer confidence -9 -15 -0.4 -0.735294 1.0 1.0 0.183333 2021-05-30
consumer price index cpi 111.31 110.76 0.00496569 0.025105 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 2.3 2 0.15 0.642857 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-06-30
core Producer Price Index 113.2 112.8 0.0035461 0.0262919 1.0 1.0 0.633333 2021-05-31
current account -12828 -26286 -0.511984 -0.282671 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-01-30
current account to gdp -3.5 -3.1 0.129032 -0.166667 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
deposit interest rate 0.5 0.5 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-02-29
exports 51643 49480 0.0437146 0.146705 1.0 1.0 0.916667 2021-05-31
external debt 7147290 7287330 -0.0192169 0.112342 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-01-01
foreign direct investment 11963 -2769 -5.32033 -0.440615 1.0 -1.0 0.733333 2021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves 176594 180463 -0.0214393 -0.0059051 -1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2021-06-30
gdp 2707.74 2830.81 -0.0434752 -0.0732028 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Real GDP 496737 504742 -0.0158596 -0.0664663 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-03-01
gdp growth -1.6 1.3 -2.23077 -5 -1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-01-01
gdp growth annual -6.1 -7.3 -0.164384 -6.54545 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-01-01
gold reserves 310.29 310.3 -0.0000322269 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.533333 2020-07-01
government budget -14.3 -2.6 4.5 0.906667 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-12-31
Government budget -19147 -3128 5.12116 11.258 1.0 -1.0 0.983333 2021-02-28
government debt 2195.8 2170.9 0.0114699 0.133784 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-05-31
government debt to gdp 97.4 84.4 0.154028 0.995902 1.0 1.0 0 2020-12-31
government revenues 63187 81218 -0.222007 -0.0139511 1.0 -1.0 0.166667 2021-02-28
housing index 448.96 451.17 -0.00489838 0.0879132 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
housing starts 46010 42110 0.0926146 0.0999283 1.0 1.0 0.6 2021-01-01
imports 50759 51075 -0.00618698 0.301546 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
industrial production 20.6 27.2 -0.242647 -2 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-05-31
industrial production mom 0.8 -1 -1.8 -1.0404 -1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-05-31
inflation cpi 2.5 2.1 0.190476 3.16667 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-06-30
interbank rate 0.08 0.08 0 -0.111111 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2021-06-02
interest rate 0.1 0.25 -0.6 -0.866667 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-03-19
lending rate 0.35 1 -0.65 -0.533333 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-03-31
loans to private sector 2637580 2655060 -0.00658366 0.112405 1.0 1.0 0.533333 2021-03-31
long term unemployment rate 1 0.9 0.111111 -0.0909091 -1.0 -1.0 0.425 2020-02-01
manufacturing pmi 63.9 65.6 -0.0259146 0.275449 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
money supply m0 95539 96324 -0.00814958 0.116136 1.0 1.0 0.916667 2021-06-30
money supply m1 2249170 2265810 -0.00734395 0.114571 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-05-31
money supply m2 2862410 2878460 -0.0055759 0.0700678 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-05-31
money supply m3 3333090 3333480 -0.000116995 0.0584464 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-05-31
Producer Price Index 112.3 111.9 0.00357462 0.0427112 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
PPI Index 4.3 4.4 -0.0227273 -3.52941 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-06-30
retail sales MoM -1.4 9.2 -1.15217 -1.1157 -1.0 -1.0 0.466667 2021-05-31
retail sales 24.6 42.4 -0.419811 -2.89231 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-05-31
services pmi 62.4 62.9 -0.00794913 0.324841 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 4.8 4.7 0.0212766 0.170732 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate 13.5 13.2 0.0227273 0.0629921 -1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-04-30
zew economic sentiment index 60.4 35.8 0.687151 -2.03248 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-03-28
UK RICS House Price 75 59 0.271186 -4.57143 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-30
Construction sector -15.5 -17.6 -0.119318 -23.1429 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2019-10-01
Consumer sector -16.2 -22.6 -0.283186 1.28169 1.0 -1.0 0.8 2020-12-01
Manufacturing sector -16.4 -24.5 -0.330612 -0.254545 1.0 1.0 0.75 2020-12-01
Retail sector -16 -10 0.6 0.025641 1.0 -1.0 0.833333 2020-12-01
Services sector -39.4 -40 -0.015 1.50955 1.0 -1.0 0.883333 2020-12-01
ESI - Economic Composite 87.1 81.5 0.0687117 -0.0257271 1.0 -1.0 0.583333 2020-12-01

UK 2-year bond yield Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: UK 2-year bond yield momentum, UK 2-year bond yield trend, UK 2-year bond yield oscillator, UK 2-year bond yield RSI and UK 2-year bond yield returns.

UK 2-year bond yield Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarUK 2-year bond yield momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The UK 2-year bond yield momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the UK 2-year bond yield. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. UK 2-year bond yield return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. UK 2-year bond yield momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when UK 2-year bond yield momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

UK 2-year bond yield trend

UK 2-year bond yield trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. UK 2-year bond yield trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. UK 2-year bond yield Closing price vs UK 2-year bond yield moving average (MA) calculation: If UK 2-year bond yield is greater than UK 2-year bond yield MA value is +1, else -1, 2. UK 2-year bond yield Moving average slope calculation: if current UK 2-year bond yield moving average is higher than the previous MA, UK 2-year bond yield upward slope +1, else -1
UK 2-year bond yield trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. UK 2-year bond yield trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when UK 2-year bond yield trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The UK 2-year bond yield 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. UK 2-year bond yield is in an uptrend when UK 2-year bond yield price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the UK 2-year bond yield 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the UK 2-year bond yield oscillator and UK 2-year bond yield RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

UK 2-year bond yield oscillator

The UK 2-year bond yield oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current UK 2-year bond yield price versus UK 2-year bond yield 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the UK 2-year bond yield oscillator is:
UK 2-year bond yield oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days UK 2-year bond yield simple moving average price) / (250 days UK 2-year bond yield price standard deviation)

UK 2-year bond yield oversold conditions
UK 2-year bond yield is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the UK 2-year bond yield is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the UK 2-year bond yield oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the UK 2-year bond yield oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of UK 2-year bond yield quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the UK 2-year bond yield RSI.
UK 2-year bond yield overbought conditions
UK 2-year bond yield is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the UK 2-year bond yield is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the UK 2-year bond yield oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the UK 2-year bond yield quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

UK 2-year bond yield RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when UK 2-year bond yield is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During UK 2-year bond yield uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

UK 2-year bond yield returns

MacroVar calculates UK 2-year bond yield returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

UK 2-year bond yield returns = (UK 2-year bond yield Closing Price – UK 2-year bond yield Previous Price)/(UK 2-year bond yield Previous Price)
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