United Kingdom Citi economic surprise index

United Kingdom Citi economic surprise index Chart


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Date Value
23-07-21 45,00
30-07-21 33,00
06-08-21 11,00
13-08-21 -10,00
20-08-21 -54,00
27-08-21 -54,00
03-09-21 -51,00
10-09-21 -58,00
17-09-21 -52,00
24-09-21 -73,00
01-10-21 -31,00
08-10-21 -30,00
15-10-21 -18,00
22-10-21 -5,00
29-10-21 3,00
05-11-21 24,00
12-11-21 15,00
19-11-21 50,00
26-11-21 57,00
03-12-21 57,00
10-12-21 55,00
17-12-21 67,00
24-12-21 52,00
31-12-21 37,00
07-01-22 38,00
14-01-22 48,00
21-01-22 31,00
28-01-22 22,00
04-02-22 29,00
11-02-22 22,00
18-02-22 36,00
25-02-22 39,00
04-03-22 48,00
11-03-22 61,00
18-03-22 61,00
25-03-22 66,00
01-04-22 80,00
08-04-22 83,00
15-04-22 87,00
22-04-22 86,00
29-04-22 72,00
06-05-22 71,00
13-05-22 13,00
20-05-22 45,00
27-05-22 24,00
03-06-22 13,00
10-06-22 9,00
17-06-22 -21,00
24-06-22 -26,00
01-07-22 -33,00
08-07-22 -38,00
15-07-22 -14,00
22-07-22 -1,00
29-07-22 1,00
05-08-22 -6,00
12-08-22 12,00
19-08-22 32,00
26-08-22 19,00
02-09-22 29,00
09-09-22 31,00

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United Kingdom Citi economic surprise index

United Kingdom Citi economic surprise index Statistics

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the United Kingdom UK Citigroup Economic Surprise Index signals presented in the statistics table below.

United Kingdom Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
FTSE 100 FTSE 7537.25 1 1 1.75487 59.9177 0.00858 0.0081 0.02825 0.10459
United Kingdom ETF EWU 33.81 1 1 0.87645 56.1956 0.00805 0.00118 0.02424 0.07572
British Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) GBPUSD 0.7637 0.5 1 1.61919 61.4207 -0.00013 0.01286 0.01772 0.04659
FLG UK 10Y Gilts FLG 121.01 0 -1 -1.90388 48.409 0.0064 0.00348 -0.0037 -0.05865
United Kingdom 10-Year Bond Yield GB.10Y 1.646 0.5 1 2.37118 57.1612 0.01542 -0.03855 0.50046 1.11568
UK 5-Year Bond Yield UK.5Y 1.2335 0 1 1.49044 49.6019 -0.01399 -0.08967 0.16809 2.8071
UK 2-year bond yield UK.2Y 1.365 0.5 1 2.0027 53.641 0.00368 -0.0257 0.6426 25.25
UK Yield Curve UK.YC 0.5 -0.5 0.75 1.11961 50.0309 -8.42 -28.26 -31.6 0.52632
United Kingdom Credit Default Swaps CDS.UK 10.5 -1 -1 -1.11007 42.4013 10.53 0 -4.55 -0.29029

United Kingdom Financial News Stream

United Kingdom Macroeconomic Indicators

Indicator Symbol Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
balance of trade uk.balanceoftrade -7793 -11387 -31.56 67.02 Down Down 15 2022-09-13
bank lending rate uk.banks.lendingrate 1.1 1.1 0 -0.266667 -1.0 -1.0 0.025 2019-05-31
banks balance sheet uk.banks.bs 4522770 4520750 0.04 5.28 UP UP 96.67 2022-09-03
business confidence uk.bizconfidence -21 -34 -38.24 61.54 Down Down 25 2022-07-31
capacity utilization uk.caputilization 73.9 64.5 0.145736 -0.127509 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2020-08-01
capital flows uk.capitalflows 29124 12283 137.11 5.65 UP UP 83.33 2022-06-28
car registrations uk.carregistrations 68858 112162 -38.61 1.21 Down UP 10 2022-09-03
central bank balance sheet uk.cb.assets 1077140 1077870 -0.07 -0.97 Down Down 41.67 2022-09-19
composite pmi uk.comppmi 48.4 49.6 -2.42 -11.84 Down Down 10 2022-09-22
construction pmi uk.constrpmi 48.9 52.6 -7.03 -16.7 Down Down 25 2022-08-06
consumer confidence uk.consconfidence -49 -44 11.36 276.92 Down Down 1.67 2022-09-22
consumer price index cpi uk.cpi 122.54 121.79 0.62 10.1 UP UP 100 2022-08-17
core inflation rate uk.coreinflationrate 2.3 2 0.15 0.642857 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-06-30
core Producer Price Index uk.coreproducerprices 131.8 130.8 0.76 14.61 UP UP 100 2022-08-17
current account uk.currentaccount -51700 -7300 608.22 49.68 Down Down 1.67 2022-06-28
current account to gdp uk.currentaccountgdp -2.6 -2.5 4 -27.78 UP UP 30 2022-07-22
deposit interest rate uk.depositrate 0.5 0.5 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-02-29
exports uk.exports 61051 58608 4.17 19.72 UP UP 96.67 2022-09-13
external debt uk.externaldebt 7317110 7345000 -0.38 11.25 UP UP 98.33 2022-07-02
foreign direct investment uk.fdi -2198 -10541 -79.15 -81.17 Down UP 25 2022-06-28
foreign exchange reserves uk.fxreserves 180782 184043 -1.77 -10.38 Down Down 68.33 2022-09-09
gdp uk.gdp 2707.74 2830.81 -0.0434752 -0.0732028 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Real GDP uk.realgdp 568719 569182 -0.08 5.11 UP UP 98.33 2022-08-11
gdp growth uk.gdpgrowth -0.1 0.8 -112.5 -150 Down Down 17.5 2022-08-11
gdp growth annual uk.gdpgrowthan 2.9 8.7 -66.67 61.11 UP UP 88.33 2022-08-11
gold reserves uk.goldres 310.29 310.3 -0.0000322269 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.533333 2020-07-01
government budget uk.govbudget -6 -14.5 -58.62 -40.59 Down UP 16.67 2022-07-22
Government budget uk.govbudgetvalue -11820 -2870 311.85 -36.55 Down UP 36.67 2022-09-21
government debt uk.govdebt 2427.5 2416.8 0.44 10.27 UP UP 100 2022-09-21
government debt to gdp uk.govdebtgdp 95.9 93.9 2.13 52.46 UP UP 0 2022-07-22
government revenues uk.govrev 69625 79076 -11.95 8.87 Down UP 78.33 2022-09-21
housing index uk.housingindex 507.42 505.63 0.35 11.82 UP UP 98.33 2022-09-09
housing starts uk.housingstarts 51730 42350 22.15 32.91 UP UP 100 2022-09-25
imports uk.imports 68844 69995 -1.64 23.69 UP UP 95 2022-09-13
industrial production uk.indproduction 1.1 2.4 -54.17 -72.5 Down Down 60.83 2022-09-13
industrial production mom uk.indproductionmm -0.3 -0.9 -66.67 -150 Down Down 36.67 2022-09-13
inflation cpi uk.inflationcpi 10.1 9.4 7.45 304 UP UP 100 2022-08-17
interbank rate uk.interbankrate 0.08 0.08 0 -0.111111 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2021-06-02
interest rate uk.interestrate 0.1 0.25 -0.6 -0.866667 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-03-19
lending rate uk.lendingrate 0.35 1 -0.65 -0.533333 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-03-31
loans to private sector uk.loanprivate 2637580 2655060 -0.00658366 0.112405 1.0 1.0 0.533333 2021-03-31
long term unemployment rate uk.ltunemploymentrate 1 0.9 0.111111 -0.0909091 -1.0 -1.0 0.425 2020-02-01
UK uk.manpmi 48.5 47.3 2.54 -16.09 Down Down 16.67 2022-09-22
money supply m0 uk.msm0 94708 94913 -0.22 -0.41 Down Down 76.67 2022-09-09
money supply m1 uk.msm1 2460190 2451920 0.34 7.73 UP UP 100 2022-09-03
money supply m2 uk.msm2 3082370 3070330 0.39 6.41 UP UP 100 2022-09-03
money supply m3 uk.msm3 3578660 3574080 0.13 6.2 UP UP 100 2022-09-03
Producer Price Index uk.producerprices 133.3 131.3 1.52 17.14 UP UP 100 2022-08-17
PPI Index uk.producerpricesch 16.1 17.1 -5.85 159.68 UP UP 96.67 2022-09-13
retail sales MoM uk.retailsales -1.6 0.4 -500 433.33 Down Down 11.67 2022-09-15
retail sales uk.retailsalesan -5.4 -3.2 68.75 -485.71 Down Down 11.67 2022-09-15
services pmi uk.servpmi 49.2 50.9 -3.34 -11.19 Down Down 13.33 2022-09-22
unemployment rate uk.unemploymentrate 4.8 4.7 0.0212766 0.170732 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate uk.ytunemploymentrate 9.1 10.4 -12.5 -30.53 Down Down 1.67 2022-09-13
zew economic sentiment index uk.zewsentiment 60.4 35.8 0.687151 -2.03248 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-03-28
UK RICS House Price uk.rics 75 59 0.271186 -4.57143 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-30
Construction sector uk.esi.constr -15.5 -17.6 -0.119318 -23.1429 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2019-10-01
Consumer sector uk.esi.cons -16.2 -22.6 -0.283186 1.28169 1.0 -1.0 0.8 2020-12-01
Manufacturing sector uk.esi.man -16.4 -24.5 -0.330612 -0.254545 1.0 1.0 0.75 2020-12-01
Retail sector uk.esi.ret -16 -10 0.6 0.025641 1.0 -1.0 0.833333 2020-12-01
Services sector uk.esi.serv -39.4 -40 -0.015 1.50955 1.0 -1.0 0.883333 2020-12-01
ESI - Economic Composite uk.esi.conf 87.1 81.5 0.0687117 -0.0257271 1.0 -1.0 0.583333 2020-12-01

United Kingdom Citi economic surprise index analysis

United Kingdom Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) are objective and quantitative measures of economic news. They are defined as weighted historical standard deviations of data surprises. A positive reading of United Kingdom Economic Surprise Index suggests that economic releases have on balance [been] beating consensus. The indices are calculated daily in a rolling three-month window. The weights of economic indicators are derived from relative high-frequency spot FX impacts of 1 standard deviation data surprises. The indices also employ a time decay function to replicate the limited memory of markets.

UK Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trend

UK Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trend is in an uptrend when the last value is higher than its twelve-month moving average and its twelve-month moving average slope is positive (last twelve-month moving average is higher than the previous month twelve-month moving average) and vice-versa. MacroVar calculates the number of months the UK Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has recorded new highs or lows. UK Citigroup Economic Surprise Index trend change is assumed when the specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more.

UK Citigroup Economic Surprise Index momentum

UK Citigroup Economic Surprise Index momentum is monitored by calculating its long-term year over year (Y/Y) return and its short-term month on month (M/M) return.