Arizona economy

Arizona economic growth

Economic growth of the state of Arizona is tracked by the GDP growth indicator. However, GDP is a lagging indicator since it reports what economic growth was in the previous quarter. MacroVar aims to predict what economic growth will be in six to twelve months. Consequently, MacroVar tracks the following leading economic indicators: Arizona Leading economic index, Initial jobless claims, Building permits and Real Estate prices. Current economic growth conditions of the state of Arizona are monitored using Arizona coincident economic activity index.

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend ZS5Y Trend Update
Leading Index Arizona 2.05 1.86 0.102151 3.18367 -1.0 1 2020-02-29
Coincident Economic Activity Index for Arizona 150.8 150.27 0.00352698 0.19351 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Initial Jobless Claims Arizona 4375 4818 -0.0919469 0.0308671 -1.0 0.716667 2021-05-29
Build Permits Arizona 5659.01 5260.65 0.0757245 0.947501 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Zillow Arizona all Prices 333965 328218 0.0175097 0.198369 1.0 1 2021-04-30
Unemployment Rate in Arizona 6.7 6.7 0 -0.528169 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01

Arizona Unemployment

Arizona unemployment is a very important economic indicator affecting the state’s economic condition. MacroVar monitors initial jobless claims which is reported every week and is an important indicator of current economic conditions. Arizona unemployment is reported later in the month.

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend ZS5Y Trend Update

Arizona Real Estate

Construction activity is a very important economic indicator for the economy of Arizona. MacroVar monitors the following indicators: Arizona building permits, real estate prices, real estate rent and the house price index. Building permits is a leading economic indicator measuring the number of permits required to start construction. Hence, it predicts the construction activity in the state for the following year. When economic growth is strong and financial conditions are normal, developers are optimistic about future economic growth and they apply for new building permits to begin new construction projects and vice-versa.

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend ZS5Y Trend Update
Zillow Arizona all Prices 333965 328218 0.0175097 0.198369 1.0 1 2021-04-30
Build Permits Arizona 5659.01 5260.65 0.0757245 0.947501 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Leading Index Arizona 2.05 1.86 0.102151 3.18367 -1.0 1 2020-02-29
All-Transactions House Price Index for Arizona 464.71 454.07 2.34 23.71 UP 100 2021-01-13
Coincident Economic Activity Index for Arizona 150.8 150.27 0.00352698 0.19351 1.0 1 2021-04-01

Arizona Cost of living

Arizona cost of living is monitored using the following indicators: Real per capita personal income, Real trade-weighted value of the dollar, Arizona Zillow rent levels, Regional price parities all items

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend ZS5Y Trend Update
Real Per Capita Personal Income for Arizona 43717 42922 1.85 0 UP 0 2021-01-13
Real Trade-Weighted Value of the dollar for Arizona 115.88 113.727 0.0189313 -0.0578785 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-03-01
Regional Price Parities: All Items for Arizona 96.3 96.4 -0.1 0 Down 0 2021-01-13

Arizona Economic news

MacroVar monitors news and economic developments related to the Arizona economy.

Economic Indicators Overview

  • Leading Index: The leading index for Arizona state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. The indicator monitors the following variables leading the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times for Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.
  • Coincident Index: The coincident economic activity index includes the following indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing and wages and salaries. The trend for Arizona state index is set to match the trend for GDP growth.
  • Initial Jobless claims: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment insurance program.
  • Building Permits: Arizona building permits represents the total number of building permits for all structure types.
  • GDP: The total value of goods produced and services provided in Arizona during one year.
  • Unemployment Rate: Arizona unemployment rate is the proportion of the labor force that is not currently employed but could be.
  • Real Estate prices (Zillow): MacroVar monitors real estate prices across Arizona using current prices determined by real estate activity tracked by Zillow.
  • House Price Index: Arizona House price index summarizes real estate activity using estimated sales prices and appraisal data.
  • Real trade-weighted value of the dollar: This index calculates the inflation-adjusted value of the US dollar against the currencies of countries to which Arizona exports. The real exchange rates are aggregated across countries for Arizona using the annual average export share to the country.
  • Regional price parities: Regional price parities (RPPs) are regional price levels expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level for a given year. The price levels are determined by the average prices paid by consumers for the mix of goods and services consumed in the state of Arizona. Taking the ratio of RPPs shows the difference in price levels across regions.

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