IYT/DIA closed up by 0.82% to 0.74 on 23 January 2021 and +-3.66% on a weekly basis. IYT/DIA momentum was last calculated at -50.0/100 indicating negative momentum. IYT/DIA trend is +0.0/100 indicating a positive trend. IYT/DIA momentum exhaustion is 0.91347 indicating IYT/DIA is oversold.IYT/DIA RSI is 36.2231 .
IYT/DIA closed at 0.74 on 23 January 2021. IYT/DIA trend was last calculated at +0.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. IYT/DIA momentum was last calculated at -50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating negative momentum. IYT/DIA momentum exhaustion is 0.91347 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating IYT/DIA is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. IYT/DIA RSI was last calculated at 36.2231. IYT/DIA moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 0.73237 in a downtrend , 1-quarter moving average: 0.73411 in a downtrend and 1-year moving average: 0.67421 in an uptrend. IYT/DIA annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 0.82%, and weekly return was last recorded at -3.66%. IYT/DIA histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 9.95772%, IYT/DIA alpha None, IYT/DIA beta None and IYT/DIA maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor IYT/DIA statistics based on historical data since 1970.
Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVar IYT/DIA momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The
IYT/DIA momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index CDFI. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. IYT/DIA return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1.
IYT/DIA BADI momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when
IYT/DIA momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
IYT/DIA trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. IYT/DIA trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. IYT/DIA Closing price vs
IYT/DIA moving average (MA) calculation: If
IYT/DIA is greater than IYT/DIA MA value is +1, else -1, 2. IYT/DIA Moving average slope calculation: if current
IYT/DIA moving average is higher than the previous MA,
IYT/DIA upward slope +1, else -1
IYT/DIA trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator.
IYT/DIA trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when IYT/DIA trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The IYT/DIA 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend.
IYT/DIA is in an uptrend when IYT/DIA price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the
IYT/DIA 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the
IYT/DIA oscillator and IYT/DIA RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
The IYT/DIA oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current
IYT/DIA price versus IYT/DIA 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the
IYT/DIA oscillator is:
IYT/DIA oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days
IYT/DIA simple moving average price) / (250 days IYT/DIA price standard deviation)
IYT/DIA oversold conditions
IYT/DIA is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the
IYT/DIA is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the
IYT/DIA oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the
IYT/DIA oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of
IYT/DIA quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the
IYT/DIA overbought conditions
IYT/DIA is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the
IYT/DIA is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the
IYT/DIA oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the
IYT/DIA quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
IYT/DIA RSI Indicator
The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when IYT/DIA is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During
IYT/DIA uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
MacroVar calculates IYT/DIA returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is: