Kentucky economy

Kentucky economic growth

Economic growth of the state of Kentucky is tracked by the GDP growth indicator. However, GDP is a lagging indicator since it reports what economic growth was in the previous quarter. MacroVar aims to predict what economic growth will be in six to twelve months. Consequently, MacroVar tracks the following leading economic indicators: Kentucky Leading economic index, Initial jobless claims, Building permits and Real Estate prices. Current economic growth conditions of the state of Kentucky are monitored using Kentucky coincident economic activity index.

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend ZS5Y Trend Update
Leading Index Kentucky 3.02 1.35 1.23704 0.597884 1.0 0.816667 2020-02-29
Coincident Economic Activity Index for Kentucky 122.01 120.96 0.00868056 0.31803 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Initial Jobless Claims Kentucky 6318 2864 1.20601 -0.318961 -1.0 0.466667 2021-05-29
Build Permits Kentucky 1351.86 1660.33 -0.185788 0.632297 1.0 0.95 2021-04-01
Total Gross Domestic Product Kentucky 216470 213169 0.0154854 0.0639229 1.0 0 2020-10-01
Zillow Kentucky all Prices 165664 164069 0.00972152 0.0911726 1.0 1 2021-04-30
Unemployment Rate in Kentucky 4.7 5 -0.06 -0.721893 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01

Kentucky Unemployment

Kentucky unemployment is a very important economic indicator affecting the state’s economic condition. MacroVar monitors initial jobless claims which is reported every week and is an important indicator of current economic conditions. Kentucky unemployment is reported later in the month.

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend ZS5Y Trend Update

Kentucky Real Estate

Construction activity is a very important economic indicator for the economy of Kentucky. MacroVar monitors the following indicators: Kentucky building permits, real estate prices, real estate rent and the house price index. Building permits is a leading economic indicator measuring the number of permits required to start construction. Hence, it predicts the construction activity in the state for the following year. When economic growth is strong and financial conditions are normal, developers are optimistic about future economic growth and they apply for new building permits to begin new construction projects and vice-versa.

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend ZS5Y Trend Update
Build Permits Kentucky 1351.86 1660.33 -0.185788 0.632297 1.0 0.95 2021-04-01
Leading Index Kentucky 3.02 1.35 1.23704 0.597884 1.0 0.816667 2020-02-29
All-Transactions House Price Index for Kentucky 376.49 369.7 1.84 14.02 UP 100 2021-01-13
Coincident Economic Activity Index for Kentucky 122.01 120.96 0.00868056 0.31803 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Zillow Kentucky all Prices 165664 164069 0.00972152 0.0911726 1.0 1 2021-04-30

Kentucky Cost of living

Kentucky cost of living is monitored using the following indicators: Real per capita personal income, Real trade-weighted value of the dollar, Kentucky Zillow rent levels, Regional price parities all items

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend ZS5Y Trend Update
Real Per Capita Personal Income for Kentucky 45797 44912 1.97 0 UP 0 2021-01-13
Real Trade-Weighted Value of the dollar for Kentucky 2.8 2.81 -0.00355872 -0.0311419 -1.0 0.333333 2021-06-11
Regional Price Parities: All Items for Kentucky 87.4 87.5 -0.11 0 Down 0 2021-01-13

Kentucky Economic news

MacroVar monitors news and economic developments related to the Kentucky economy.

Economic Indicators Overview

  • Leading Index: The leading index for Kentucky state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. The indicator monitors the following variables leading the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times for Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.
  • Coincident Index: The coincident economic activity index includes the following indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing and wages and salaries. The trend for Kentucky state index is set to match the trend for GDP growth.
  • Initial Jobless claims: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment insurance program.
  • Building Permits: Kentucky building permits represents the total number of building permits for all structure types.
  • GDP: The total value of goods produced and services provided in Kentucky during one year.
  • Unemployment Rate: Kentucky unemployment rate is the proportion of the labor force that is not currently employed but could be.
  • Real Estate prices (Zillow): MacroVar monitors real estate prices across Kentucky using current prices determined by real estate activity tracked by Zillow.
  • House Price Index: Kentucky House price index summarizes real estate activity using estimated sales prices and appraisal data.
  • Real trade-weighted value of the dollar: This index calculates the inflation-adjusted value of the US dollar against the currencies of countries to which Kentucky exports. The real exchange rates are aggregated across countries for Kentucky using the annual average export share to the country.
  • Regional price parities: Regional price parities (RPPs) are regional price levels expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level for a given year. The price levels are determined by the average prices paid by consumers for the mix of goods and services consumed in the state of Kentucky. Taking the ratio of RPPs shows the difference in price levels across regions.

3-Month London Interbank Offered Rate trend

3-Month London Interbank Offered Rate trend is in an uptrend when the last value is higher than its twelve-month moving average and its twelve-month moving average slope is positive (last twelve-month moving average is higher than the previous month twelve-month moving average) and vice-versa. MacroVar calculates the number of months the 3-Month London Interbank Offered Rate has recorded new highs or lows. 3-Month London Interbank Offered Rate trend change is assumed when the specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more.

3-Month London Interbank Offered Rate momentum

3-Month London Interbank Offered Rate momentum is monitored by calculating its long-term year over year (Y/Y) return and its short-term month on month (M/M) return.

5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate trend

5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate trend is in an uptrend when the last value is higher than its twelve-month moving average and its twelve-month moving average slope is positive (last twelve-month moving average is higher than the previous month twelve-month moving average) and vice-versa. MacroVar calculates the number of months the 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate has recorded new highs or lows. 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate trend change is assumed when the specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more.

5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate momentum

5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate momentum is monitored by calculating its long-term year over year (Y/Y) return and its short-term month on month (M/M) return.

All Federal Reserve Banks Total Assets trend

All Federal Reserve Banks Total Assets trend is in an uptrend when the last value is higher than its twelve-month moving average and its twelve-month moving average slope is positive (last twelve-month moving average is higher than the previous month twelve-month moving average) and vice-versa. MacroVar calculates the number of months the All Federal Reserve Banks Total Assets has recorded new highs or lows. All Federal Reserve Banks Total Assets trend change is assumed when the specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more.

All Federal Reserve Banks Total Assets momentum

All Federal Reserve Banks Total Assets momentum is monitored by calculating its long-term year over year (Y/Y) return and its short-term month on month (M/M) return.

BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Total Return Index Value trend

BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Total Return Index Value trend is in an uptrend when the last value is higher than its twelve-month moving average and its twelve-month moving average slope is positive (last twelve-month moving average is higher than the previous month twelve-month moving average) and vice-versa. MacroVar calculates the number of months the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Total Return Index Value has recorded new highs or lows. BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Total Return Index Value trend change is assumed when the specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more.

BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Total Return Index Value momentum

BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Total Return Index Value momentum is monitored by calculating its long-term year over year (Y/Y) return and its short-term month on month (M/M) return.

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