Texas economy

Texas economic growth

Economic growth of the state of Texas is tracked by the GDP growth indicator. However, GDP is a lagging indicator since it reports what economic growth was in the previous quarter. MacroVar aims to predict what economic growth will be in six to twelve months. Consequently, MacroVar tracks the following leading economic indicators: Texas Leading economic index, Initial jobless claims, Building permits and Real Estate prices. Current economic growth conditions of the state of Texas are monitored using Texas coincident economic activity index.

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend ZS5Y Trend Update
Leading Index Texas 1.96 1.5 0.306667 0.734513 1.0 0.966667 2020-02-29
Coincident Economic Activity Index for Texas 144.53 145.01 -0.33 -2.44 UP 76.67 2021-01-13
Initial Jobless Claims Texas 21927 25041 -0.124356 -0.555828 -1.0 0.2 2021-05-29
Build Permits Texas 23606.5 22117.9 0.067303 0.444538 1.0 0.966667 2021-04-01
Total Gross Domestic Product Texas 1820230 1772130 0.0271425 0.0620212 1.0 0 2020-10-01
Zillow Texas all Prices 235834 232455 0.0145361 0.106641 1.0 1 2021-04-30
Unemployment Rate in Texas 6.7 6.9 -0.0289855 -0.48062 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01

Texas Unemployment

Texas unemployment is a very important economic indicator affecting the state’s economic condition. MacroVar monitors initial jobless claims which is reported every week and is an important indicator of current economic conditions. Texas unemployment is reported later in the month.

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend ZS5Y Trend Update

Texas Real Estate

Construction activity is a very important economic indicator for the economy of Texas. MacroVar monitors the following indicators: Texas building permits, real estate prices, real estate rent and the house price index. Building permits is a leading economic indicator measuring the number of permits required to start construction. Hence, it predicts the construction activity in the state for the following year. When economic growth is strong and financial conditions are normal, developers are optimistic about future economic growth and they apply for new building permits to begin new construction projects and vice-versa.

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend ZS5Y Trend Update
Build Permits Texas 23606.5 22117.9 0.067303 0.444538 1.0 0.966667 2021-04-01
Leading Index Texas 1.96 1.5 0.306667 0.734513 1.0 0.966667 2020-02-29
All-Transactions House Price Index for Texas 359.85 354.68 1.46 15.55 UP 100 2021-01-13
Coincident Economic Activity Index for Texas 144.53 145.01 -0.33 -2.44 UP 76.67 2021-01-13
Zillow Texas all Prices 235834 232455 0.0145361 0.106641 1.0 1 2021-04-30

Texas Cost of living

Texas cost of living is monitored using the following indicators: Real per capita personal income, Real trade-weighted value of the dollar, Texas Zillow rent levels, Regional price parities all items

Indicator Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend ZS5Y Trend Update
Real Per Capita Personal Income for Texas 50021 49196 1.68 0 UP 0 2021-01-13
Real Trade-Weighted Value of the dollar for Texas 104.519 102.472 0.0199762 -0.0530126 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-03-01
Regional Price Parities: All Items for Texas 96.5 96.5 0 0 UP 0 2021-01-13

Texas Economic news

MacroVar monitors news and economic developments related to the Texas economy.

Economic Indicators Overview

  • Leading Index: The leading index for Texas state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. The indicator monitors the following variables leading the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times for Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill.
  • Coincident Index: The coincident economic activity index includes the following indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing and wages and salaries. The trend for Texas state index is set to match the trend for GDP growth.
  • Initial Jobless claims: An initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment insurance program.
  • Building Permits: Texas building permits represents the total number of building permits for all structure types.
  • GDP: The total value of goods produced and services provided in Texas during one year.
  • Unemployment Rate: Texas unemployment rate is the proportion of the labor force that is not currently employed but could be.
  • Real Estate prices (Zillow): MacroVar monitors real estate prices across Texas using current prices determined by real estate activity tracked by Zillow.
  • House Price Index: Texas House price index summarizes real estate activity using estimated sales prices and appraisal data.
  • Real trade-weighted value of the dollar: This index calculates the inflation-adjusted value of the US dollar against the currencies of countries to which Texas exports. The real exchange rates are aggregated across countries for Texas using the annual average export share to the country.
  • Regional price parities: Regional price parities (RPPs) are regional price levels expressed as a percentage of the overall national price level for a given year. The price levels are determined by the average prices paid by consumers for the mix of goods and services consumed in the state of Texas. Taking the ratio of RPPs shows the difference in price levels across regions.

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