XLE/SPY closed down by -5.56% to 0.11 on 23 January 2021 and +-14.49% on a weekly basis. XLE/SPY momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 indicating positive momentum. XLE/SPY trend is +0.0/100 indicating a positive trend. XLE/SPY momentum exhaustion is -0.5241 indicating XLE/SPY is oversold.XLE/SPY RSI is 55.9868 .
XLE/SPY closed at 0.11 on 23 January 2021. XLE/SPY trend was last calculated at +0.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. XLE/SPY momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. XLE/SPY momentum exhaustion is -0.5241 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating XLE/SPY is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. XLE/SPY RSI was last calculated at 55.9868. XLE/SPY moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 0.10618 in a downtrend , 1-quarter moving average: 0.09794 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 0.11973 in a downtrend. XLE/SPY annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -5.56%, and weekly return was last recorded at -14.49%. XLE/SPY histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 30.0994%, XLE/SPY alpha None, XLE/SPY beta None and XLE/SPY maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor XLE/SPY statistics based on historical data since 1970.
Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVar XLE/SPY momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The
XLE/SPY momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index CDFI. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. XLE/SPY return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1.
XLE/SPY BADI momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when
XLE/SPY momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
XLE/SPY trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. XLE/SPY trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. XLE/SPY Closing price vs
XLE/SPY moving average (MA) calculation: If
XLE/SPY is greater than XLE/SPY MA value is +1, else -1, 2. XLE/SPY Moving average slope calculation: if current
XLE/SPY moving average is higher than the previous MA,
XLE/SPY upward slope +1, else -1
XLE/SPY trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator.
XLE/SPY trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when XLE/SPY trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The XLE/SPY 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend.
XLE/SPY is in an uptrend when XLE/SPY price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the
XLE/SPY 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the
XLE/SPY oscillator and XLE/SPY RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
The XLE/SPY oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current
XLE/SPY price versus XLE/SPY 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the
XLE/SPY oscillator is:
XLE/SPY oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days
XLE/SPY simple moving average price) / (250 days XLE/SPY price standard deviation)
XLE/SPY oversold conditions
XLE/SPY is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the
XLE/SPY is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the
XLE/SPY oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the
XLE/SPY oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of
XLE/SPY quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the
XLE/SPY overbought conditions
XLE/SPY is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the
XLE/SPY is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the
XLE/SPY oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the
XLE/SPY quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
XLE/SPY RSI Indicator
The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when XLE/SPY is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During
XLE/SPY uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
MacroVar calculates XLE/SPY returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is: