XLI/XLU ratio

XLI/XLU closed up by 1.16% to 1.6 on 23 January 2021 and +0.86% on a weekly basis. XLI/XLU momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 indicating positive momentum. XLI/XLU trend is +75.0/100 indicating a positive trend. XLI/XLU momentum exhaustion is 1.90592 indicating XLI/XLU is oversold.XLI/XLU RSI is 58.5298 .

XLI/XLU ratio Chart

XLI/XLU ratio

XLI/XLU ratio Statistics

SecuritySymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
XLI/XLUXLIXLU1.600.751.9059258.52981.160.864.60.10264

XLI/XLU closed at 1.6 on 23 January 2021. XLI/XLU trend was last calculated at +75.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. XLI/XLU momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. XLI/XLU momentum exhaustion is 1.90592 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating XLI/XLU is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. XLI/XLU RSI was last calculated at 58.5298. XLI/XLU moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 1.42512 in a downtrend , 1-quarter moving average: 1.34102 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 1.22404 in an uptrend. XLI/XLU annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 1.16%, and weekly return was last recorded at 0.86%. XLI/XLU histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 10.7599%, XLI/XLU alpha None, XLI/XLU beta None and XLI/XLU maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor XLI/XLU statistics based on historical data since 1970.

XLI/XLU Trading Signals

MacroVar estimates the following signals: XLI/XLU momentum, XLI/XLU trend, XLI/XLU oscillator, XLI/XLU RSI and XLI/XLU returns.

XLI/XLU Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVar XLI/XLU momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The XLI/XLU momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index CDFI. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. XLI/XLU return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. XLI/XLU BADI momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when XLI/XLU momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

XLI/XLU Trend

XLI/XLU trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. XLI/XLU trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. XLI/XLU Closing price vs XLI/XLU moving average (MA) calculation: If XLI/XLU is greater than XLI/XLU MA value is +1, else -1, 2. XLI/XLU Moving average slope calculation: if current XLI/XLU moving average is higher than the previous MA, XLI/XLU upward slope +1, else -1
XLI/XLU trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. XLI/XLU trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when XLI/XLU trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The XLI/XLU 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. XLI/XLU is in an uptrend when XLI/XLU price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the XLI/XLU 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the XLI/XLU oscillator and XLI/XLU RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

XLI/XLU Oscillator

The XLI/XLU oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current XLI/XLU price versus XLI/XLU 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the XLI/XLU oscillator is:
XLI/XLU oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days XLI/XLU simple moving average price) / (250 days XLI/XLU price standard deviation)

XLI/XLU oversold conditions
XLI/XLU is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the XLI/XLU is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the XLI/XLU oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the XLI/XLU oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of XLI/XLU quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the XLI/XLU RSI.
XLI/XLU overbought conditions
XLI/XLU is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the XLI/XLU is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the XLI/XLU oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the XLI/XLU quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

XLI/XLU RSI Indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when XLI/XLU is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During XLI/XLU uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

XLI/XLU Returns

MacroVar calculates XLI/XLU returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

XLI/XLU returns = (XLI/XLU Closing Price Previous Price)/(XLI/XLU Previous Price)

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