Aluminium AM

Aluminium closed down by -2.16% to 2424.5 on 23 January 2021 and +2.06% on a weekly basis. Aluminium momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Aluminium trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Aluminium momentum exhaustion is 2.11088 indicating Aluminium is oversold.Aluminium RSI is 62.6388 .

Aluminium AM Chart

Aluminium AM

Aluminium AM Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the Aluminium. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the Aluminium trading signals presented in the Aluminium statistics table.

SecuritySymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
AluminiumAM2424.5112.1108862.6388-2.162.062.150.17857

Aluminium closed at 2424.5 on 23 January 2021. Aluminium trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. Aluminium momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. Aluminium momentum exhaustion is 2.11088 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Aluminium is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. Aluminium RSI was last calculated at 62.6388. Aluminium moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 2016.35 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 1938.33 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 1712.61 in an uptrend. Aluminium annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -2.16%, and weekly return was last recorded at 2.06%. Aluminium histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 17.1503%, Aluminium alpha None, Aluminium beta None and Aluminium maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Aluminium statistics based on historical data since 1970.

Aluminium Factors

Aluminium

FactorSymbolLast ValuePredicted ValueR2MacroVar Signal
Global PMI Y/Y vs Aluminium Y/YALUMINIUM.FACT.GLOBALPMI

Commodities

Last
Daily %
Momentum
Trend
Exhaustion
Trend Strength
16.09 (0.0%)
634.0 (0.63%)
545.0 (-4.39%)
666.0 (1.37%)
57.35 (0.16%)
2.0327 (0.08%)
2.772 (2.02%)
28.6 (-0.35%)
71.55 (-2.05%)
2.95 (-0.03%)
88.16 (0.15%)
1885.5 (-0.24%)
12987.5 (1.07%)
21537.5 (1.26%)
2712.5 (1.4%)
1464.4 (-0.06%)
15.883 (-0.19%)
1330.05 (-0.21%)
846.8 (0.16%)
396.9 (-0.9%)
190.6 (-3.79%)
72.92 (-1.42%)
96.45 (-2.97%)
2269.0 (-0.2%)
13.37 (1.21%)
121.3 (1.31%)
375.25 (0.07%)
484.88 (-0.41%)
271.0 (-1.56%)
10.19 (-0.15%)
910.25 (-0.04%)
910.25 (-0.04%)
910.25 (-0.04%)
910.25 (-0.04%)
CRB Index CRB Index
CRB Industrials CRB Industrials
Brent Brent
WTI WTI
Heating Oil Heating Oil
RBOB RBOB
NatGas NatGas
Iron Ore Iron Ore
Coal Coal
Copper Copper
Aluminum Aluminum
Nickel Nickel
Tin Tin
Zinc Zinc
Palladium Palladium
Silver Silver
Gold Gold
Platinum Platinum
Rubber Rubber
Lumber Lumber
Cotton Cotton
Coffee Coffee
Cocoa Cocoa
Sugar Sugar
OJ OJ
Corn Corn
Wheat Wheat
Oats Oats
Rice Rice
Soybeans Soybeans
Soybean Oil Soybean Oil
Soybean Meal Soybean Meal
Feeder Cattle Feeder Cattle
Live Cattle Live Cattle
Last
Daily %
Momentum
Trend
Exhaustion
Trend Strength
CRB Index CRB Index
16.09 (0.0%)
CRB Industrials CRB Industrials
634.0 (0.63%)
Brent Brent
545.0 (-4.39%)
WTI WTI
666.0 (1.37%)
Heating Oil Heating Oil
57.35 (0.16%)
RBOB RBOB
2.0327 (0.08%)
NatGas NatGas
2.772 (2.02%)
Iron Ore Iron Ore
28.6 (-0.35%)
Coal Coal
71.55 (-2.05%)
Copper Copper
2.95 (-0.03%)
Aluminum Aluminum
88.16 (0.15%)
Nickel Nickel
1885.5 (-0.24%)
Tin Tin
12987.5 (1.07%)
Zinc Zinc
21537.5 (1.26%)
Palladium Palladium
2712.5 (1.4%)
Silver Silver
1464.4 (-0.06%)
Gold Gold
15.883 (-0.19%)
Platinum Platinum
1330.05 (-0.21%)
Rubber Rubber
846.8 (0.16%)
Lumber Lumber
396.9 (-0.9%)
Cotton Cotton
190.6 (-3.79%)
Coffee Coffee
72.92 (-1.42%)
Cocoa Cocoa
96.45 (-2.97%)
Sugar Sugar
2269.0 (-0.2%)
OJ OJ
13.37 (1.21%)
Corn Corn
121.3 (1.31%)
Wheat Wheat
375.25 (0.07%)
Oats Oats
484.88 (-0.41%)
Rice Rice
271.0 (-1.56%)
Soybeans Soybeans
10.19 (-0.15%)
Soybean Oil Soybean Oil
910.25 (-0.04%)
Soybean Meal Soybean Meal
910.25 (-0.04%)
Feeder Cattle Feeder Cattle
910.25 (-0.04%)
Live Cattle Live Cattle
910.25 (-0.04%)

Aluminium Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: Aluminium momentum, Aluminium trend, Aluminium oscillator, Aluminium RSI and Aluminium returns.

Aluminium Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarAluminium momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Aluminium momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Aluminium. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Aluminium return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Aluminium AM momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Aluminium momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

Aluminium trend

Aluminium trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Aluminium trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Aluminium Closing price vs Aluminium moving average (MA) calculation: If Aluminium is greater than Aluminium MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Aluminium Moving average slope calculation: if current Aluminium moving average is higher than the previous MA, Aluminium upward slope +1, else -1
Aluminium trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Aluminium trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Aluminium trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The Aluminium 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Aluminium is in an uptrend when Aluminium price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Aluminium 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Aluminium oscillator and Aluminium RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

Aluminium oscillator

The Aluminium oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current Aluminium price versus Aluminium 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Aluminium oscillator is:
Aluminium oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Aluminium simple moving average price) / (250 days Aluminium price standard deviation)

Aluminium oversold conditions
Aluminium is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Aluminium is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Aluminium oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Aluminium oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of Aluminium quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Aluminium RSI.
Aluminium overbought conditions
Aluminium is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Aluminium is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Aluminium oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Aluminium quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

Aluminium RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Aluminium is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During Aluminium uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

Aluminium returns

MacroVar calculates Aluminium returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

Aluminium returns = (Aluminium Closing Price – Aluminium Previous Price)/(Aluminium Previous Price)
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