Brent Crude Oil
Brent Crude Oil closed down by -9.33% to 69.35 on 23 January 2021 and +-7.3% on a weekly basis. Brent Crude Oil momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Brent Crude Oil trend is +75.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Brent Crude Oil momentum exhaustion is 1.28642 indicating Brent Crude Oil is oversold.Brent Crude Oil RSI is 72.1816 .
Brent Crude Oil Chart
Brent Crude Oil Statistics
Brent Crude Oil closed at 69.35 on 23 January 2021. Brent Crude Oil trend was last calculated at +75.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. Brent Crude Oil momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. Brent Crude Oil momentum exhaustion is 1.28642 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Brent Crude Oil is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. Brent Crude Oil RSI was last calculated at 72.1816. Brent Crude Oil moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 51.2215 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 46.3087 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 42.3233 in a downtrend. Brent Crude Oil annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -9.33%, and weekly return was last recorded at -7.3%. Brent Crude Oil histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 26.0972%, Brent Crude Oil alpha None, Brent Crude Oil beta None and Brent Crude Oil maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Brent Crude Oil statistics based on historical data since 1970.
Brent Crude Oil Trading Signals
Brent Crude Oil Momentum
Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVarBrent Crude Oil momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Brent Crude Oil momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Brent Crude Oil. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Brent Crude Oil return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Brent Crude Oil momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Brent Crude Oil momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
Brent Crude Oil trend
Brent Crude Oil trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Brent Crude Oil trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Brent Crude Oil Closing price vs Brent Crude Oil moving average (MA) calculation: If Brent Crude Oil is greater than Brent Crude Oil MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Brent Crude Oil Moving average slope calculation: if current Brent Crude Oil moving average is higher than the previous MA, Brent Crude Oil upward slope +1, else -1
Brent Crude Oil trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Brent Crude Oil trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Brent Crude Oil trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The Brent Crude Oil 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Brent Crude Oil is in an uptrend when Brent Crude Oil price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Brent Crude Oil 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Brent Crude Oil oscillator and Brent Crude Oil RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
Brent Crude Oil oscillator
The Brent Crude Oil oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current Brent Crude Oil price versus Brent Crude Oil 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Brent Crude Oil oscillator is:
Brent Crude Oil oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Brent Crude Oil simple moving average price) / (250 days Brent Crude Oil price standard deviation)
Brent Crude Oil oversold conditions
Brent Crude Oil is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Brent Crude Oil is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Brent Crude Oil oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Brent Crude Oil oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of Brent Crude Oil quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Brent Crude Oil RSI.
Brent Crude Oil overbought conditions
Brent Crude Oil is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Brent Crude Oil is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Brent Crude Oil oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Brent Crude Oil quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
Brent Crude Oil RSI indicator
The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Brent Crude Oil is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During Brent Crude Oil uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
Brent Crude Oil returns
MacroVar calculates Brent Crude Oil returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:
Brent Crude Oil returns = (Brent Crude Oil Closing Price – Brent Crude Oil Previous Price)/(Brent Crude Oil Previous Price)