Crude Oil WTI

Crude Oil WTI closed down by -3.87% to 70.3 on 23 January 2021 and +-3.78% on a weekly basis. Crude Oil WTI momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Crude Oil WTI trend is +75.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Crude Oil WTI momentum exhaustion is 1.13957 indicating Crude Oil WTI is oversold.Crude Oil WTI RSI is 72.6138 .

Crude Oil WTI Chart

Crude Oil WTI

Crude Oil WTI Statistics

SecuritySymbolLastMomentumTrendOscillatorRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
Crude Oil WTIWTI 70.310.751.1395772.6138-3.87-3.7810.08-0.13792

Crude Oil WTI closed at 70.3 on 23 January 2021. Crude Oil WTI trend was last calculated at +75.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. Crude Oil WTI momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. Crude Oil WTI momentum exhaustion is 1.13957 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Crude Oil WTI is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. Crude Oil WTI RSI was last calculated at 72.6138. Crude Oil WTI moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 47.8545 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 43.4052 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 38.5337 in a downtrend. Crude Oil WTI annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -3.87%, and weekly return was last recorded at -3.78%. Crude Oil WTI histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 22.4385%, Crude Oil WTI alpha None, Crude Oil WTI beta None and Crude Oil WTI maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Crude Oil WTI statistics based on historical data since 1970.

Crude Oil WTI Factors

Crude Oil WTI

FactorSymbolLast ValuePredicted ValueR2MacroVar Signal
Global PMI Y/Y vs Crude Y/YCRUDEOIL.FACT.GLOBALPMI44.5563.7134-1.07085
Global PMI vs Crude OilCRUDEOIL.FACT.GLOBALPMI
Crude Oil vs Copper YYCOPPER.FACT.CRUDEOIL

Crude Oil WTI Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: Crude Oil WTI momentum, Crude Oil WTI trend, Crude Oil WTI oscillator, Crude Oil WTI RSI and Crude Oil WTI returns.

Crude Oil WTI Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVar Crude Oil WTI momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Crude Oil WTI momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Crude Oil WTI. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Crude Oil WTI return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Crude Oil WTI momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Crude Oil WTI momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

Crude Oil WTI trend

Crude Oil WTI trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Crude Oil WTI trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Crude Oil WTI Closing price vs Crude Oil WTI moving average (MA) calculation: If Crude Oil WTI is greater than Crude Oil WTI MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Crude Oil WTI Moving average slope calculation: if current Crude Oil WTI moving average is higher than the previous MA, Crude Oil WTI upward slope +1, else -1
Crude Oil WTI trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Crude Oil WTI trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Crude Oil WTI trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The Crude Oil WTI 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Crude Oil WTI is in an uptrend when Crude Oil WTI price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Crude Oil WTI 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Crude Oil WTI oscillator and Crude Oil WTI RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

Crude Oil WTI oscillator

The Crude Oil WTI oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current Crude Oil WTI price versus Crude Oil WTI 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Crude Oil WTI oscillator is:
Crude Oil WTI oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Crude Oil WTI simple moving average price) / (250 days Crude Oil WTI price standard deviation)

Crude Oil WTI oversold conditions
Crude Oil WTI is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Crude Oil WTI is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Crude Oil WTI oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Crude Oil WTI oscillator must be analysed ibn conjunction with the rest of Crude Oil WTI quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Crude Oil WTI RSI.
Crude Oil WTI overbought conditions
Crude Oil WTI is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Crude Oil WTI is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Crude Oil WTI oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Crude Oil WTI quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

Crude Oil WTI RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Crude Oil WTI is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During Crude Oil WTI uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

Crude Oil WTI returns

MacroVar calculates Crude Oil WTI returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

Crude Oil WTI returns = (Crude Oil WTI Closing Price – Crude Oil WTI Previous Price)/(Crude Oil WTI Previous Price)
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