Heating Oil closed down by -7.98% to 2.01 on 23 January 2021 and +-3.97% on a weekly basis. Heating Oil momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Heating Oil trend is +75.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Heating Oil momentum exhaustion is 1.21792 indicating Heating Oil is oversold.Heating Oil RSI is 71.2767 .
Heating Oil Chart
Heating Oil Statistics
MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the Heating Oil. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.
Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the Heating Oil trading signals presented in the Heating Oil statistics table.
Heating Oil closed at 2.01 on 23 January 2021. Heating Oil trend was last calculated at +75.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. Heating Oil momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. Heating Oil momentum exhaustion is 1.21792 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Heating Oil is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. Heating Oil RSI was last calculated at 71.2767. Heating Oil moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 1.47437 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 1.31132 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 1.22715 in a downtrend. Heating Oil annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -7.98%, and weekly return was last recorded at -3.97%. Heating Oil histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 19.4174%, Heating Oil alpha None, Heating Oil beta None and Heating Oil maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Heating Oil statistics based on historical data since 1970.
Heating Oil Factors
|Factor||Symbol||Last Value||Predicted Value||R2||MacroVar Signal|
Heating Oil Trading Signals
MacroVar estimates the following signals: Heating Oil momentum, Heating Oil trend, Heating Oil oscillator, Heating Oil RSI and Heating Oil returns.
Heating Oil MomentumMomentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVar Heating Oil momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Heating Oil momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Heating Oil. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Heating Oil return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Heating Oil HO momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Heating Oil momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
Heating Oil trendHeating Oil trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Heating Oil trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Heating Oil Closing price vs Heating Oil moving average (MA) calculation: If Heating Oil is greater than Heating Oil MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Heating Oil Moving average slope calculation: if current Heating Oil moving average is higher than the previous MA, Heating Oil upward slope +1, else -1
Heating Oil trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Heating Oil trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Heating Oil trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The Heating Oil 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Heating Oil is in an uptrend when Heating Oil price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Heating Oil 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Heating Oil oscillator and Heating Oil RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
Heating Oil oscillatorThe Heating Oil oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current Heating Oil price versus Heating Oil 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Heating Oil oscillator is:
Heating Oil oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Heating Oil simple moving average price) / (250 days Heating Oil price standard deviation)
Heating Oil oversold conditions
Heating Oil is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Heating Oil is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Heating Oil oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Heating Oil oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of Heating Oil quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Heating Oil RSI.
Heating Oil overbought conditions
Heating Oil is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Heating Oil is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Heating Oil oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Heating Oil quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
Heating Oil RSI indicatorThe RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Heating Oil is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During Heating Oil uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
Heating Oil returnsMacroVar calculates Heating Oil returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:
Heating Oil returns = (Heating Oil Closing Price – Heating Oil Previous Price)/(Heating Oil Previous Price)