Lumber closed down by -16.6% to 542.0 on 23 January 2021 and +-39.14% on a weekly basis. Lumber momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Lumber trend is +75.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Lumber momentum exhaustion is 1.1235 indicating Lumber is oversold.Lumber RSI is 39.3669 .
MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the Lumber. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.
Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the Lumber trading signals presented in the Lumber statistics table.
Lumber closed at 542.0 on 23 January 2021. Lumber trend was last calculated at +75.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. Lumber momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. Lumber momentum exhaustion is 1.1235 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Lumber is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. Lumber RSI was last calculated at 39.3669. Lumber moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 824.74 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 655.42 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 514.36 in an uptrend. Lumber annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -16.6%, and weekly return was last recorded at -39.14%. Lumber histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 94.011%, Lumber alpha None, Lumber beta None and Lumber maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Lumber statistics based on historical data since 1970.
Lumber Trading Signals
MacroVar estimates the following signals: Lumber momentum, Lumber trend, Lumber oscillator, Lumber RSI and Lumber returns.
Lumber MomentumMomentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVarLumber momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Lumber momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Lumber. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Lumber return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Lumber LB momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Lumber momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
Lumber trendLumber trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Lumber trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Lumber Closing price vs Lumber moving average (MA) calculation: If Lumber is greater than Lumber MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Lumber Moving average slope calculation: if current Lumber moving average is higher than the previous MA, Lumber upward slope +1, else -1
Lumber trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Lumber trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Lumber trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The Lumber 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Lumber is in an uptrend when Lumber price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Lumber 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Lumber oscillator and Lumber RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
Lumber oscillatorThe Lumber oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current Lumber price versus Lumber 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Lumber oscillator is:
Lumber oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Lumber simple moving average price) / (250 days Lumber price standard deviation)
Lumber oversold conditions
Lumber is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Lumber is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Lumber oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Lumber oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of Lumber quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Lumber RSI.
Lumber overbought conditions
Lumber is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Lumber is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Lumber oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Lumber quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
Lumber RSI indicatorThe RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Lumber is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During Lumber uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
Lumber returnsMacroVar calculates Lumber returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:
Lumber returns = (Lumber Closing Price – Lumber Previous Price)/(Lumber Previous Price)