Oats closed up by 6.94% to 454.75 on 23 January 2021 and +26.23% on a weekly basis. Oats momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Oats trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Oats momentum exhaustion is 2.85691 indicating Oats is overbought.Oats RSI is 81.5373 .
Oats closed at 454.75 on 23 January 2021. Oats trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. Oats momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. Oats momentum exhaustion is 2.85691 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Oats is overbought and a possible reversal is imminent. Oats RSI was last calculated at 81.5373. Oats moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 338.587 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 310.337 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 297.385 in an uptrend. Oats annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at 6.94%, and weekly return was last recorded at 26.23%. Oats histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 25.143%, Oats alpha None, Oats beta None and Oats maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Oats statistics based on historical data since 1970.
Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVar Oats momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The
Oats momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index CDFI. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Oats return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1.
Oats BADI momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when
Oats momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
Oats trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Oats trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Oats Closing price vs
Oats moving average (MA) calculation: If
Oats is greater than Oats MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Oats Moving average slope calculation: if current
Oats moving average is higher than the previous MA,
Oats upward slope +1, else -1
Oats trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator.
Oats trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Oats trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The Oats 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend.
Oats is in an uptrend when Oats price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the
Oats 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the
Oats oscillator and Oats RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
The Oats oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current
Oats price versus Oats 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the
Oats oscillator is:
Oats oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days
Oats simple moving average price) / (250 days Oats price standard deviation)
Oats oversold conditions
Oats is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the
Oats is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the
Oats oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the
Oats oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of
Oats quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the
Oats overbought conditions
Oats is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the
Oats is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the
Oats oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the
Oats quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
Oats RSI Indicator
The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Oats is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During
Oats uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
MacroVar calculates Oats returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is: