Precious Index closed down by -0.38% to 2392.59 on 23 January 2021 and +1.15% on a weekly basis. Precious Index momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Precious Index trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Precious Index momentum exhaustion is 0.92709 indicating Precious Index is oversold.Precious Index RSI is 60.0311 .
Precious Index closed at 2392.59 on 23 January 2021. Precious Index trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. Precious Index momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. Precious Index momentum exhaustion is 0.92709 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Precious Index is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. Precious Index RSI was last calculated at 60.0311. Precious Index moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 2455.82 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 2462.11 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 2310.84 in an uptrend. Precious Index annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -0.38%, and weekly return was last recorded at 1.15%. Precious Index histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 13.7152%, Precious Index alpha None, Precious Index beta None and Precious Index maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Precious Index statistics based on historical data since 1970.
Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVar Precious Metals Indexmomentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The
Precious Metals Indexmomentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index CDFI. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Precious Metals Indexreturn is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1.
Precious Metals IndexBADI momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when
Precious Metals Indexmomentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
Precious Metals IndexTrend
Precious Metals Indextrend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Precious Metals Indextrend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Precious Metals IndexClosing price vs
Precious Metals Indexmoving average (MA) calculation: If
Precious Metals Indexis greater than Precious Metals IndexMA value is +1, else -1, 2. Precious Metals IndexMoving average slope calculation: if current
Precious Metals Indexmoving average is higher than the previous MA,
Precious Metals Indexupward slope +1, else -1
Precious Metals Indextrend model can be used as a trend strength indicator.
Precious Metals Indextrend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Precious Metals Indextrend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The Precious Metals Index52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend.
Precious Metals Indexis in an uptrend when Precious Metals Indexprice is higher than the 52-week moving average and the
Precious Metals Index52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the
Precious Metals Indexoscillator and Precious Metals IndexRSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
Precious Metals IndexOscillator
The Precious Metals Indexoscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current
Precious Metals Indexprice versus Precious Metals Index1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the
Precious Metals Indexoscillator is:
Precious Metals Indexoscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days
Precious Metals Indexsimple moving average price) / (250 days Precious Metals Indexprice standard deviation)
Precious Metals Indexoversold conditions
Precious Metals Indexis oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the
Precious Metals Indexis oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the
Precious Metals Indexoscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the
Precious Metals Indexoscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of
Precious Metals Indexquantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the
Precious Metals IndexRSI.
Precious Metals Indexoverbought conditions
Precious Metals Indexis overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the
Precious Metals Indexis overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the
Precious Metals Indexoscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the
Precious Metals Indexquantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
Precious Metals IndexRSI Indicator
The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Precious Metals Indexis in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During
Precious Metals Indexuptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
Precious Metals IndexReturns
MacroVar calculates Precious Metals Indexreturns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is: