US Cocoa closed down by -4.55% to 2265.0 on 23 January 2021 and +-2.62% on a weekly basis. US Cocoa momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 indicating positive momentum. US Cocoa trend is +50.0/100 indicating a positive trend. US Cocoa momentum exhaustion is 0.473 indicating US Cocoa is oversold.US Cocoa RSI is 48.6455 .
US Cocoa closed at 2265.0 on 23 January 2021. US Cocoa trend was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. US Cocoa momentum was last calculated at +50.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. US Cocoa momentum exhaustion is 0.473 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating US Cocoa is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. US Cocoa RSI was last calculated at 48.6455. US Cocoa moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 2629.6 in a downtrend , 1-quarter moving average: 2580.35 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 2515.99 in an uptrend. US Cocoa annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -4.55%, and weekly return was last recorded at -2.62%. US Cocoa histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 34.7351%, US Cocoa alpha None, US Cocoa beta None and US Cocoa maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor US Cocoa statistics based on historical data since 1970.
Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVar US Cocoa momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The
US Cocoa momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the China Import Dry Bulk Freight Index CDFI. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. US Cocoa return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1.
US Cocoa BADI momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when
US Cocoa momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
US Cocoa Trend
US Cocoa trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. US Cocoa trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. US Cocoa Closing price vs
US Cocoa moving average (MA) calculation: If
US Cocoa is greater than US Cocoa MA value is +1, else -1, 2. US Cocoa Moving average slope calculation: if current
US Cocoa moving average is higher than the previous MA,
US Cocoa upward slope +1, else -1
US Cocoa trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator.
US Cocoa trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when US Cocoa trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The US Cocoa 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend.
US Cocoa is in an uptrend when US Cocoa price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the
US Cocoa 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the
US Cocoa oscillator and US Cocoa RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
US Cocoa Oscillator
The US Cocoa oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current
US Cocoa price versus US Cocoa 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the
US Cocoa oscillator is:
US Cocoa oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days
US Cocoa simple moving average price) / (250 days US Cocoa price standard deviation)
US Cocoa oversold conditions
US Cocoa is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the
US Cocoa is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the
US Cocoa oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the
US Cocoa oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of
US Cocoa quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the
US Cocoa RSI.
US Cocoa overbought conditions
US Cocoa is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the
US Cocoa is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the
US Cocoa oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the
US Cocoa quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
US Cocoa RSI Indicator
The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when US Cocoa is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During
US Cocoa uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
US Cocoa Returns
MacroVar calculates US Cocoa returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is: