Albania Economy

Albania’s gdp growth annual decreased to -3.65 by -49.31% on July 2020 from -7.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s gdp growth annual decreased by -204.88%. Albania’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -3.65 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.6.Albania’s inflation cpi decreased to 1.6 by -20.0% on November 2020 from 2.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s inflation cpi increased by 14.29%. Albania’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 1.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.625.Albania’s unemployment rate decreased to 11.6 by -7.2% on May 2020 from 12.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s unemployment rate decreased by -17.14%. Albania’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 11.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.4083.

Albania Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Albania Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the
two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Albania’s current macroeconomic conditions are analyzed below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Macro model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Albania Macro Model

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Albania Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 5.53 2.37 1.33333 0.345499 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-01-31
inflation cpi 1.6 1.8 -0.111111 -0.111111 1.0 -1.0 0.375 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 12.6 12.3 0.0243902 -0.0307692 1.0 -1.0 0.516667 2021-01-01
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 108.9 91.4 0.191466 0.824121 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite 108.9 91.4 0.191466 0.824121 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 1220920 1175000 0.0390809 0.177403 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
government debt to gdp 65.9 67.9 -0.0294551 0.230626 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
external debt 8852.1 8553.7 0.0348855 0.116111 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
gold reserves 2.8 2.8 0 0.78344 1.0 1.0 0.991667 2020-02-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -309.07 -351.89 -0.121686 0.732261 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-01
current account to gdp -7.6 -6.7 0.134328 -0.267117 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.5 0.5 0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 0.025 2020-03-25
central bank balance sheet 630997 642794 -0.0183527 0.0944662 -1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-04-30
banks balance sheet 1662900 1657130 0.00348192 0.0653606 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-04-30
money supply m2 875894 873607 0.00261788 0.0988825 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-05-31
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -14653 -7162 1.04594 -0.0619078 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-04-30
government revenues 234289 191602 0.22279 0.202086 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
fiscal expenditure 263380 211940 0.24271 -0.0672522 1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-06-30

Albania’s gdp growth annual decreased to -3.65 by -49.31% on July 2020 from -7.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s gdp growth annual decreased by -204.88%. Albania’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -3.65 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.6.Albania’s inflation cpi decreased to 1.6 by -20.0% on November 2020 from 2.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s inflation cpi increased by 14.29%. Albania’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 1.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.625.Albania’s unemployment rate decreased to 11.6 by -7.2% on May 2020 from 12.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s unemployment rate decreased by -17.14%. Albania’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 11.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.4083.Albania’s building permits decreased to 184.0 by -6.12% on January 2020 from 196.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s building permits increased by 82.18%. Albania’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 184.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 261.667.Albania’s business confidence decreased to -20.3 by -32.56% on July 2020 from -30.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s business confidence decreased by -20400.0%. Albania’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -20.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.99167.Albania’s consumer confidence decreased to -18.9 by -147833.0% on June 2021 from 0.380282 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s consumer confidence decreased by -10000.0%. Albania’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -18.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.0.

 

Albania Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence -1.5 -11.7 -0.871795 -1.65217 1.0 -1.0 0.233333 2021-01-01
ESI - Economic Composite 108.9 91.4 0.191466 0.824121 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite 108.9 91.4 0.191466 0.824121 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector 9.6 1.2 7 -1.4898 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -16.3 -21.6 -0.24537 -0.380228 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Construction sector -11 -21.6 -0.490741 -0.725 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Retail sector 17 8.2 1.07317 -1.73593 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Services sector 18.6 -1.2 -16.5 -1.53757 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01

Albania’s business confidence decreased to -20.3 by -32.56% on July 2020 from -30.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s business confidence decreased by -20400.0%. Albania’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -20.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.99167.Albania’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 83.2 by -957.0% on January 2021 from 92.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -1795.0%. Albania’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 83.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 85.1833.Albania’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 83.2 by -957.0% on January 2021 from 92.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -1795.0%. Albania’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 83.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 85.1833.Albania’s Manufacturing sector decreased to -1.0 by -12041.0% on January 2021 from 4.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -13704.0%. Albania’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.00833.Albania’s Consumer sector icnreased to -22.8 by 654.0% on January 2021 from -21.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Consumer sector increased by 18148.0%. Albania’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -22.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.3583.Albania’s Construction sector icnreased to -23.0 by 455.0% on January 2021 from -22.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Construction sector decreased by -417.0%. Albania’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -23.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27.9167.Albania’s Retail sector icnreased to 1.0 by 1111.0% on January 2021 from 0.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Retail sector decreased by -909.0%. Albania’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.45833.Albania’s Services sector decreased to -6.7 by -121667.0% on January 2021 from 0.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Services sector decreased by -17204.0%. Albania’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -6.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.20833.

Albania Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -18.9 -20.2 -0.0643564 0.615385 -1.0 -1.0 0.916667 2021-01-01
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) 0.9 -7.8 -1.11538 -1.04945 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) 1.8 -2.1 -1.85714 -0.660377 1.0 -1.0 0 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) -16.8 -14 0.2 4.6 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 12 15.2 -0.210526 -0.68254 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -52.9 -57.9 -0.0863558 -0.12272 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -48.2 -52.1 -0.074856 -0.129964 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 1.6 -1.2 -2.33333 -1.16842 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01

Albania’s consumer confidence decreased to -18.9 by -147833.0% on June 2021 from 0.380282 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s consumer confidence decreased by -10000.0%. Albania’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -18.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.0.Albania’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -11.0 by 1828.0% on January 2021 from -9.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) decreased by -25714.0%. Albania’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.79167.Albania’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -5.1 by 11250.0% on January 2021 from -2.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -15100.0%. Albania’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -5.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.658333.Albania’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased to -10.5 by -367.0% on January 2021 from -10.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -3558.0%. Albania’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.7833.Albania’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 23.8 by 1333.0% on January 2021 from 21.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 36667.0%. Albania’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 23.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18.375.Albania’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -58.8 by 120.0% on January 2021 from -58.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 2591.0%. Albania’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -58.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -57.05.Albania’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) icnreased to -56.4 by 387.0% on January 2021 from -54.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) increased by 4030.0%. Albania’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -56.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -51.25.Albania’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to -0.9 by -5909.0% on January 2021 from -2.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased by -20000.0%. Albania’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of -0.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.35.

 

Albania Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector 9.6 1.2 7 -1.4898 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -13.3 -23.2 -0.426724 -0.737673 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 9.8 6.3 0.555556 -3.13043 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 8.6 -0.7 -13.2857 -1.20283 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -14 -36.6 -0.617486 -0.77707 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -4.4 -7 -0.371429 -0.767196 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 37.7 19.8 0.90404 -2.40149 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
industrial production -1.8 -1.8 0 -1.69231 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-08-01

Albania’s Manufacturing sector decreased to -1.0 by -12041.0% on January 2021 from 4.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -13704.0%. Albania’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.00833.Albania’s Manufacturing – Order Books icnreased to -32.7 by 1394.0% on January 2021 from -28.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 13696.0%. Albania’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -32.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -36.9583.Albania’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) icnreased to 2.0 by 8182.0% on January 2021 from 1.1 in the previous . Albania’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.66667.Albania’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) icnreased to -29.6 by 2704.0% on January 2021 from -23.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -57742.0%. Albania’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of -29.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.925.Albania’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books icnreased to -41.4 by 3019.0% on January 2021 from -31.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 6235.0%. Albania’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -41.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -44.4083.Albania’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased to -9.9 by -2500.0% on January 2021 from -13.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -257500.0%. Albania’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of -9.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.6083.Albania’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to 19.8 by -3444.0% on January 2021 from 30.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -1081.0%. Albania’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 19.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.35.Albania’s industrial production decreased to -11.2 by -307.41% on January 2020 from 5.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s industrial production decreased by -199.12%. Albania’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -11.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.05833.

Albania Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector 18.6 -1.2 -16.5 -1.53757 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 43.1 24.9 0.730924 -2.724 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 3.9 2.1 0.857143 -2.5 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) 7.2 -10.5 -1.68571 -1.17822 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) 5.6 -18 -1.31111 -1.14583 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) -4.4 -11.5 -0.617391 -0.796296 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 18.2 3.8 3.78947 -2.07692 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01

Albania’s Services sector decreased to -6.7 by -121667.0% on January 2021 from 0.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Services sector decreased by -17204.0%. Albania’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -6.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.20833.Albania’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 11.7 by -4208.0% on January 2021 from 20.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -4891.0%. Albania’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 11.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.2083.Albania’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -0.7 by -80000.0% on January 2021 from 0.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -11842.0%. Albania’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.74167.Albania’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -13.4 by 4409.0% on January 2021 from -9.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -37917.0%. Albania’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -13.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.2667.Albania’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -18.4 by 10000.0% on January 2021 from -9.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -1850000.0%. Albania’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -18.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.5667.Albania’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased to -11.1 by -4532.0% on January 2021 from -20.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -380000.0%. Albania’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -11.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.9917.Albania’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased to 4.2 by -3438.0% on January 2021 from 6.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -4615.0%. Albania’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 4.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.65.

Albania Retail Sector

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector 17 8.2 1.07317 -1.73593 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) 30.2 15.9 0.899371 -1.69108 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) -1.1 -0.9 0.222222 -2.22222 1.0 -1.0 0 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) 7.4 -4.5 -2.64444 -1.15417 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels -4.7 -5.3 -0.113208 -0.774038 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) 39 23.6 0.652542 -1.92857 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) -0.2 -1.9 -0.894737 -0.985816 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
retail sales 38.6 -5.6 -7.89286 -2.69298 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-03-31

Albania’s Retail sector icnreased to 1.0 by 1111.0% on January 2021 from 0.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Retail sector decreased by -909.0%. Albania’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.45833.Albania’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 13.9 by -1203.0% on January 2021 from 15.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) increased by 41482.0%. Albania’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 13.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.34167.Albania’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -2.7 by 35000.0% on January 2021 from -0.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -7033.0%. Albania’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -2.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.5.Albania’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -18.6 by -2119.0% on January 2021 from -23.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) increased by 1341.0%. Albania’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -18.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27.85.Albania’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased to -4.0 by -4521.0% on January 2021 from -7.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -6226.0%. Albania’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of -4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.20833.Albania’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 17.6 by -785.0% on January 2021 from 19.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) increased by 9341.0%. Albania’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 17.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.325.Albania’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -2.1 by 95000.0% on January 2021 from -0.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -80000.0%. Albania’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -2.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.38333.Albania’s retail sales decreased to 8.2 by -213.89% on June 2020 from -7.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s retail sales increased by 115.79%. Albania’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 8.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.233333.

Albania Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector -11 -21.6 -0.490741 -0.725 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -36.6 -47.5 -0.229474 -0.39 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 9 9.9 -0.0909091 2.91304 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 14.6 4.3 2.39535 -1.73367 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
building permits 306 262 0.167939 0.450237 1.0 1.0 0 2020-10-01
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) 3 -16.2 -1.18519 -1.07673 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 13.8 11.8 0.169492 1.70588 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 66.8 64.3 0.0388802 -0.0709319 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 10.1 8.9 0.134831 0.578125 -1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 7.4 5.6 0.321429 -0.0512821 1.0 -1.0 0 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 2.2 5 -0.56 0.047619 -1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 35 37.6 -0.0691489 0.0324484 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 19 26 -0.269231 -0.170306 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-04-01

Albania’s Construction sector icnreased to -23.0 by 455.0% on January 2021 from -22.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Construction sector decreased by -417.0%. Albania’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -23.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27.9167.Albania’s Construction – Current Order Books icnreased to -49.0 by 889.0% on January 2021 from -45.0 in the previous . Albania’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -49.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -54.0.Albania’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to 4.0 by -5000.0% on January 2021 from 8.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -23333.0%. Albania’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.75.Albania’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to 2.0 by -15000.0% on January 2021 from -4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -7143.0%. Albania’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.58333.Albania’s building permits decreased to 184.0 by -6.12% on January 2020 from 196.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s building permits increased by 82.18%. Albania’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 184.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 261.667.Albania’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased to -22.0 by -833.0% on January 2021 from -24.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) increased by 4667.0%. Albania’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -22.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27.1667.Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) On a year on year basis Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -909.0%. Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.75.Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) icnreased to 74.0 by 423.0% on January 2021 from 71.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 1045.0%. Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 74.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 69.1667.Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased to 10.0 by -1667.0% on January 2021 from 12.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) increased by 2500.0%. Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.75.Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased to 9.0 by -1000.0% on January 2021 from 10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) increased by 2857.0%. Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.08333.Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased to 2.0 by -3333.0% on January 2021 from 3.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) increased by 10000.0%. Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.25.Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased to 27.0 by -2059.0% on January 2021 from 34.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased by -2703.0%. Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 27.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 34.8333.Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 25.0 by 870.0% on January 2021 from 23.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 25714.0%. Albania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 25.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.8333.

 

Albania GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 394702 388600 0.0157025 0.0564348 1.0 1.0 0 2021-03-01
gdp growth annual 5.53 2.37 1.33333 0.345499 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-01-31
gdp 15.2781 15.147 0.00865518 0.430895 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
gdp growth 2.3 1.2 0.916667 -0.178571 1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-01

Albania’s Real GDP icnreased to 381722.0 by 10.94% on September 2020 from 344085.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s Real GDP increased by 4.71%. Albania’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 381722.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 377754.0.Albania’s gdp growth annual decreased to -3.65 by -49.31% on July 2020 from -7.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s gdp growth annual decreased by -204.88%. Albania’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -3.65 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.6.Albania’s gdp icnreased to 15.2781 by 0.87% on January 2019 from 15.147 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Albania’s gdp increased by 43.09%. Albania’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 15.2781 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.8967.Albania’s gdp growth decreased to 9.8 by -211.36% on July 2020 from -8.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s gdp growth decreased by -9900.0%. Albania’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 9.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.45.

Albania inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 1.6 1.8 -0.111111 -0.111111 1.0 -1.0 0.375 2021-06-30
consumer price index cpi 101.52 102.35 -0.00810943 0.0159376 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-06-30
Producer Price Index 101.1 98.7 0.0243161 -0.0212972 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-31
PPI Index -0.6 -3.4 -0.823529 -1.61224 1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-31

Albania’s inflation cpi decreased to 1.6 by -20.0% on November 2020 from 2.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s inflation cpi increased by 14.29%. Albania’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 1.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.625.Albania’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 102.35 by 1009370.0% on June 2021 from 0.110795 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s consumer price index cpi increased by 10000.0%. Albania’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 102.35 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.0.Albania’s Producer Price Index decreased to 98.2 by -0.81% on May 2020 from 99.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s Producer Price Index decreased by -2.87%. Albania’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 98.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 102.158.Albania’s PPI Index icnreased to -4.1 by 95.24% on April 2020 from -2.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s PPI Index decreased by -394.96%. Albania’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -4.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.110833.

 

Albania Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -1.9 -1.6 0.1875 -0.457143 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Government budget -14653 -7162 1.04594 -0.0619078 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-04-30
government revenues 234289 191602 0.22279 0.202086 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
fiscal expenditure 263380 211940 0.24271 -0.0672522 1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-06-30

Albania’s Government budget icnreased to -72726.0 by 11.06% on November 2020 from -65486.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s Government budget increased by 671.96%. Albania’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -72726.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -29660.6.Albania’s government revenues icnreased to 382917.0 by 10.3% on November 2020 from 347167.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s government revenues decreased by -9.1%. Albania’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 382917.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 225172.0.Albania’s fiscal expenditure icnreased to 455643.0 by 10.42% on November 2020 from 412653.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s fiscal expenditure increased by 5.79%. Albania’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 455643.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 258926.0.

Albania Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.5 0.5 0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 0.025 2020-03-25
central bank balance sheet 630997 642794 -0.0183527 0.0944662 -1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-04-30
banks balance sheet 1662900 1657130 0.00348192 0.0653606 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-04-30
money supply m0 521260 524967 -0.0070614 0.149875 1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-05-31
money supply m1 655037 652101 0.00450237 0.157491 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-05-31
money supply m2 875894 873607 0.00261788 0.0988825 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-05-31
money supply m3 1485500 1478480 0.00474812 0.0909078 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-05-31

Albania’s interest rate decreased to 0.5 by -50.0% on March 2020 from 1.0 in the previous Daily. On a year on year basis Albania’s interest rate decreased by -50.0%. Albania’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.958333.Albania’s central bank balance sheet decreased to 657923.0 by -0.04% on October 2020 from 658174.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s central bank balance sheet increased by 21.9%. Albania’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 657923.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 594112.0.Albania’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 1617940.0 by 0.39% on November 2020 from 1611640.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s banks balance sheet increased by 6.96%. Albania’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 1617940.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1576170.0.Albania’s money supply m2 icnreased to 834413.0 by 0.65% on November 2020 from 829036.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s money supply m2 increased by 11.76%. Albania’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 834413.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 796547.0.

Albania Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 119.3 98.7 0.208713 1.4248 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
EEI - Employment Composite 119.3 98.7 0.208713 1.4248 1.0 1.0 0 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 12.6 12.3 0.0243902 -0.0307692 1.0 -1.0 0.516667 2021-01-01
youth unemployment rate 23.3 21.7 0.0737327 -0.0489796 1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-01

Albania’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 102.1 by -211.0% on January 2021 from 104.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -572.0%. Albania’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 102.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 98.9.Albania’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 102.1 by -211.0% on January 2021 from 104.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Albania’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -572.0%. Albania’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 102.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 98.9.Albania’s unemployment rate decreased to 11.6 by -7.2% on May 2020 from 12.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s unemployment rate decreased by -17.14%. Albania’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 11.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.4083.Albania’s youth unemployment rate icnreased to 21.4 by 7.0% on April 2020 from 20.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s youth unemployment rate decreased by -18.94%. Albania’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 21.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 22.5417.

 

Albania Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -309.07 -351.89 -0.121686 0.732261 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-01
current account to gdp -7.6 -6.7 0.134328 -0.267117 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
exports 34856.5 32856.9 0.0608578 0.508286 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
imports 67175.1 61942.4 0.0844769 0.288508 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-06-30
balance of trade -32318.6 -29085.5 0.111158 0.113571 -1.0 -1.0 0.733333 2021-06-30

Albania’s current account decreased to -309.07 by -2656450.0% on June 2021 from 0.397059 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s current account decreased by -10000.0%. Albania’s current account trend is down since the current value of -309.07 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.0.Albania’s current account to gdp icnreased to -7.6 by 13.43% on January 2019 from -6.7 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Albania’s current account to gdp decreased by -26.71%. Albania’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of -7.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.3167.Albania’s exports icnreased to 28691.4 by 250095000.0% on June 2021 from 0.238938 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s exports increased by 10000.0%. Albania’s exports trend is down since the current value of 28691.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.0.Albania’s imports decreased to 55633.0 by -6.31% on November 2020 from 59381.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s imports increased by 5.01%. Albania’s imports trend is down since the current value of 55633.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49940.8.Albania’s balance of trade decreased to -28293.3 by -12.93% on November 2020 from -32493.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s balance of trade increased by 0.22%. Albania’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -28293.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27379.0.

Albania Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gold reserves 2.8 2.8 0 0.78344 1.0 1.0 0.991667 2020-02-01

Albania’s gold reserves icnreased to 2.8 by 28.44% on January 2020 from 2.18 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s gold reserves increased by 78.34%. Albania’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 2.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.78.Albania’s government debt decreased to 1211230.0 by -0.69% on July 2020 from 1219670.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s government debt increased by 18.23%. Albania’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 1211230.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1085420.0.Albania’s government debt to gdp decreased to 65.9 by -2.95% on January 2019 from 67.9 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Albania’s government debt to gdp increased by 23.06%. Albania’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 65.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 65.4517.Albania’s external debt decreased to 8829.1 by -0.89% on May 2020 from 8908.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s external debt increased by 12.74%. Albania’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 8829.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8308.3.

 

Albania Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 1220920 1175000 0.0390809 0.177403 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
government debt to gdp 65.9 67.9 -0.0294551 0.230626 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
external debt 8852.1 8553.7 0.0348855 0.116111 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01

Albania’s government debt decreased to 1211230.0 by -0.69% on July 2020 from 1219670.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s government debt increased by 18.23%. Albania’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 1211230.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1085420.0.Albania’s government debt to gdp decreased to 65.9 by -2.95% on January 2019 from 67.9 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Albania’s government debt to gdp increased by 23.06%. Albania’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 65.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 65.4517.Albania’s external debt decreased to 8829.1 by -0.89% on May 2020 from 8908.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Albania’s external debt increased by 12.74%. Albania’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 8829.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8308.3.

Albania Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
deposit interest rate 0.1 0.1 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.783333 2019-08-31
bank lending rate 3.89 3.97 -0.0201511 0.0263852 -1.0 1.0 0 2021-05-31
loans to private sector 375290 372662 0.00705197 0.0817518 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-04-30
lending rate 0.9 0.9 0 -0.526316 -1.0 -1.0 0.025 2020-04-30

Albania’s deposit interest rate icnreased to 0.1 by 1000.0% on June 2021 from 0.531977 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s deposit interest rate decreased by -10000.0%. Albania’s deposit interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.0.Albania’s bank lending rate decreased to 3.73 by -5.33% on September 2020 from 3.94 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s bank lending rate decreased by -4.85%. Albania’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 3.73 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.05917.Albania’s loans to private sector icnreased to 357486.0 by 0.23% on September 2020 from 356672.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s loans to private sector increased by 8.33%. Albania’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 357486.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 346325.0.Albania’s lending rate decreased to 0.9 by -52.63% on March 2020 from 1.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Albania’s lending rate decreased by -52.63%. Albania’s lending rate trend is down since the current value of 0.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.81667.

Albania macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Albania economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Albania Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Albania Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Albania’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish

Read more on how to analyze a country’s macroeconomics in detail.

MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world. Click here to learn more.

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