Argentina Economy

15 October 2020

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel restrictions have obliterated the key tourism industry, which accounts for almost a fifth of GDP and employment, as tourism revenues plunged by over 80% year-on-year in July. Moreover

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Argentina Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%

Argentina Economy

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel restrictions have obliterated the key tourism industry, which accounts for almost a fifth of GDP and employment, as tourism revenues plunged by over 80% year-on-year in July. Moreover

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 2.5 -4.3 -1.5814 -0.342105 1.0 -1.0 0.633333 2021-01-31
unemployment rate 10.2 11 -0.0727273 0.120879 -1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-01-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 102 90.2 0.13082 0.895911 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 269508 271505 -0.0073553 0.0621382 -1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves 36955 35334 0.0458765 0.00187063 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-05-31
gold reserves 61.74 61.74 0 0.100143 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2020-08-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 690.19 -1234.73 -1.55898 -1.07351 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-01-01
current account to gdp 1 -0.8 -2.25 -0.444444 1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 36 37 -0.027027 -0.428571 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-10-20
central bank balance sheet 11866400 11609200 0.0221548 0.917015 -1.0 1.0 0.95 2020-08-31
money supply m2 5221610 4873070 0.0715237 0.364909 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-05-31
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget 25713.6 -11444.9 -3.24673 -1.10233 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-05-31
government revenues 806798 761324 0.0597302 0.434216 1.0 1.0 0.566667 2021-04-30
fiscal expenditure 805790 832709 -0.032327 0.935004 1.0 1.0 0.95 2020-08-31

Argentina Economic analysis

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GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Argentina Consumer activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence 34.6 35.4 -0.0225989 -0.124051 -1.0 -1.0 0.383333 2021-06-30
car registrations 28.19 28.03 0.00570817 0.185799 -1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-06-30

Argentina Manufacturing activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
industrial production 30.2 55.6 -0.456835 -2.15223 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-05-31
industrial production mom -5 -1.9 1.63158 -1.44248 -1.0 -1.0 0.55 2021-05-31
capacity utilization 61.5 63.5 -0.0314961 0.325431 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31

Argentina Retail Sector

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
retail sales 3749 162.9 22.0141 -39.7293 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-30
retail sales MoM 25.9 -14.5 -2.78621 0.0401606 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2015-10-31

Argentina GDP

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 648176 643710 0.00693791 -0.0839369 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-31
gdp growth annual 2.5 -4.3 -1.5814 -0.342105 1.0 -1.0 0.633333 2021-01-31

Argentina inflation

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer price index cpi 483.6 468.725 0.031735 0.501985 1.0 1.0 0 2021-06-30
Producer Price Index 773.82 748.04 0.0344634 0.726429 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-05-31
PPI Index 72.6 67.4 0.0771513 1.01108 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
inflation expectations 45 50 -0.1 -0.1 1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-06-30

Argentina Government Policy

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -8.5 -3.8 1.23684 -8.08333 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget 25713.6 -11444.9 -3.24673 -1.10233 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-05-31
government revenues 806798 761324 0.0597302 0.434216 1.0 1.0 0.566667 2021-04-30
fiscal expenditure 805790 832709 -0.032327 0.935004 1.0 1.0 0.95 2020-08-31

Argentina Monetary Policy

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 36 37 -0.027027 -0.428571 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-10-20
central bank balance sheet 11866400 11609200 0.0221548 0.917015 -1.0 1.0 0.95 2020-08-31
money supply m0 2735560 2517200 0.0867472 0.26383 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-06-30
money supply m1 3678270 3381620 0.0877242 0.420264 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-05-31
money supply m2 5221610 4873070 0.0715237 0.364909 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-05-31
money supply m3 62240.9 8723220 -0.992865 -0.989815 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-05-31

Argentina Employment

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
unemployment rate 10.2 11 -0.0727273 0.120879 -1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-01-31

Argentina Trade & Capital Flows

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 690.19 -1234.73 -1.55898 -1.07351 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-01-01
current account to gdp 1 -0.8 -2.25 -0.444444 1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 6764 6143 0.101091 0.33202 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-05-31
imports 5141 4673 0.10015 0.623816 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
balance of trade 1623 1470 0.104082 -0.151151 1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-05-31

Argentina Reserves

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 36955 35334 0.0458765 0.00187063 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-05-31
gold reserves 61.74 61.74 0 0.100143 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2020-08-01

Argentina Debt

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 102 90.2 0.13082 0.895911 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 269508 271505 -0.0073553 0.0621382 -1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-01-01

Argentina Banking activity

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 31.72 32.29 -0.0176525 0.961657 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-06-30
deposit interest rate 58.59 58.59 0 0.0216216 1.0 1.0 0.5 2019-09-13
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