Cyprus Economy

Cyprus’s gdp growth annual decreased to -4.4 by -64.23% on July 2020 from -12.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s gdp growth annual decreased by -197.78%. Cyprus’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -4.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.54167.Cyprus’s inflation cpi decreased to -0.6 by -25.0% on November 2020 from -0.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s inflation cpi increased by 20.0%. Cyprus’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.483333.Cyprus’s unemployment rate icnreased to 10.5 by 12.9% on October 2020 from 9.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s unemployment rate increased by 59.09%. Cyprus’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 10.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.55833.

Cyprus Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Cyprus Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Cyprus’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Cyprus macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Cyprus Macro Model

Cyprus News

Cyprus Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual -1.6 -4.4 -0.636364 -1.2807 -1.0 -1.0 0.433333 2021-01-01
inflation cpi 3.1 2.4 0.291667 -2.55 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 9.9 9.2 0.076087 0.269231 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-05-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 93.2 84.7 0.100354 0.201031 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 118.2 94 0.257447 1.59211 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 192088 189307 0.0146904 0.798981 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves 973.1 1000.3 -0.0271918 -0.0722662 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-06-30
gold reserves 13.9 13.9 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.458333 2019-04-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -784.2 -182 3.30879 -3.15795 -1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2020-05-01
current account to gdp -6.7 -7 -0.0428571 -0.432203 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
Money Supply M2 18440200 18178100 0.0144184 0.204156 1.0 1.0 1 2007-11-30
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -187.9 -568.8 -0.669655 -1.54369 1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-01-01
government revenues 2070.7 2518.9 -0.177935 0.098981 -1.0 1.0 0.516667 2021-01-01
fiscal expenditure 2258.6 3087.7 -0.268517 0.450983 -1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-01-01

Cyprus’s gdp growth annual decreased to -4.4 by -64.23% on July 2020 from -12.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s gdp growth annual decreased by -197.78%. Cyprus’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -4.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.54167.Cyprus’s inflation cpi decreased to -0.6 by -25.0% on November 2020 from -0.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s inflation cpi increased by 20.0%. Cyprus’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.483333.Cyprus’s unemployment rate icnreased to 10.5 by 12.9% on October 2020 from 9.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s unemployment rate increased by 59.09%. Cyprus’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 10.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.55833.Cyprus’s building permits icnreased to 690.0 by 31.93% on September 2020 from 523.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s building permits increased by 10.93%. Cyprus’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 690.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 593.583.Cyprus’s business confidence icnreased to 80.9 by 0.25% on November 2020 from 80.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s business confidence decreased by -26.39%. Cyprus’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 80.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 89.3583.Cyprus’s consumer confidence icnreased to -35.0 by 21.11% on November 2020 from -28.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s consumer confidence increased by 407.25%. Cyprus’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -35.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.3917.

 

Cyprus Business activity

 

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 105 100.6 0.0437376 0.277372 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
ESI - Economic Composite 93.2 84.7 0.100354 0.201031 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector -24.2 -37.4 -0.352941 -0.442396 1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -18.4 -23 -0.2 -0.433846 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Construction sector -23.1 -22.2 0.0405405 1.48387 -1.0 -1.0 0.883333 2021-04-01
Retail sector -19.8 -26.4 -0.25 -0.220472 1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-04-01
Services sector -6 -32.4 -0.814815 -0.876033 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01

Cyprus’s business confidence icnreased to 80.9 by 0.25% on November 2020 from 80.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s business confidence decreased by -26.39%. Cyprus’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 80.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 89.3583.Cyprus’s ESI – Economic Composite icnreased to 80.9 by 25.0% on January 2021 from 80.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -2639.0%. Cyprus’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 80.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 89.3583.Cyprus’s Manufacturing sector decreased to -27.8 by -544.0% on January 2021 from -29.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -38367.0%. Cyprus’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -27.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.8583.Cyprus’s Consumer sector icnreased to -35.0 by 2111.0% on January 2021 from -28.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Consumer sector increased by 40725.0%. Cyprus’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -35.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.3917.Cyprus’s Construction sector icnreased to -25.0 by 12727.0% on January 2021 from -11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Construction sector increased by 115000.0%. Cyprus’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -25.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.0.Cyprus’s Retail sector icnreased to -28.4 by 327.0% on January 2021 from -27.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Retail sector increased by 38136.0%. Cyprus’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -28.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.2417.Cyprus’s Services sector decreased to -46.8 by -429.0% on January 2021 from -48.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Services sector decreased by -26138.0%. Cyprus’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -46.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.45.

Cyprus Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -13.4 -17.8 -0.247191 -0.429787 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-06-30
car registrations 3279 2863 0.145302 -0.0755568 -1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-06-30
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -18.5 -29.3 -0.368601 -0.6593 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) -4.6 -4.1 0.121951 -0.827715 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) -9.4 -13.1 -0.282443 0.146341 1.0 -1.0 0.75 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 35.8 39.6 -0.0959596 -0.434439 -1.0 -1.0 0.516667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -30.8 -34.8 -0.114943 -0.354298 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -37.7 -32.4 0.16358 -0.1373 -1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 14.1 17.3 -0.184971 0.175 -1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01

Cyprus’s consumer confidence icnreased to -35.0 by 21.11% on November 2020 from -28.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s consumer confidence increased by 407.25%. Cyprus’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -35.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.3917.Cyprus’s car registrations icnreased to 3802.0 by 19.9% on November 2020 from 3171.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s car registrations decreased by -2.84%. Cyprus’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 3802.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3287.08.Cyprus’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -56.1 by 2384.0% on January 2021 from -45.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 691250.0%. Cyprus’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -56.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -31.6667.Cyprus’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -20.1 by 10938.0% on January 2021 from -9.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) increased by 157500.0%. Cyprus’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -20.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.98333.Cyprus’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased to -15.3 by -1947.0% on January 2021 from -19.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) increased by 22553.0%. Cyprus’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -15.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.45833.Cyprus’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 66.0 by 1681.0% on January 2021 from 56.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased by -120000.0%. Cyprus’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 66.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 41.5917.Cyprus’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -45.7 by 66.0% on January 2021 from -45.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 8963.0%. Cyprus’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -45.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -38.6.Cyprus’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased to -38.8 by -300.0% on January 2021 from -40.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased by -1814.0%. Cyprus’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -38.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -37.9417.Cyprus’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to 14.2 by -2447.0% on January 2021 from 18.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Consumer – Households Financial situation increased by 1008.0%. Cyprus’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 14.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.8583.

Cyprus Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector -24.2 -37.4 -0.352941 -0.442396 1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -54.9 -66.6 -0.175676 -0.156682 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 1.4 -2 -1.7 -2.27273 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) -57.8 -65 -0.110769 1.75238 1.0 -1.0 0.85 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -68.5 -82.3 -0.167679 -0.177671 -1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -16.6 -20.5 -0.190244 0.643564 1.0 -1.0 0.883333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) -34.3 -66.1 -0.481089 -0.543276 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
industrial production 55.9 10.8 4.17593 -2.54848 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-30

Cyprus’s Manufacturing sector decreased to -27.8 by -544.0% on January 2021 from -29.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -38367.0%. Cyprus’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -27.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.8583.Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Order Books icnreased to -67.3 by 890.0% on January 2021 from -61.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 77403.0%. Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -67.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -46.8667.Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased to -0.8 by -4286.0% on January 2021 from -1.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -12286.0%. Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -0.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.40833.Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to -57.0 by -656.0% on January 2021 from -61.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -35000.0%. Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of -57.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -30.2333.Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books decreased to -69.2 by -114.0% on January 2021 from -70.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 43231.0%. Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -69.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -40.9917.Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) icnreased to -22.7 by 2971.0% on January 2021 from -17.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) increased by 22899.0%. Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of -22.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.8583.Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to -38.8 by -1182.0% on January 2021 from -44.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -22933.0%. Cyprus’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -38.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.5667.Cyprus’s industrial production icnreased to -5.2 by 85.71% on October 2020 from -2.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s industrial production decreased by -300.0%. Cyprus’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -5.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.21667.

Cyprus Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector -6 -32.4 -0.814815 -0.876033 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 27.3 -5.6 -5.875 -1.31093 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) -1 -10 -0.9 -0.963636 1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) -28.9 -46.9 -0.383795 0.090566 1.0 -1.0 0.533333 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) -16.3 -44.6 -0.634529 -0.470779 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) 0.2 -13.1 -1.01527 -1.04348 1.0 1.0 0.55 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) -3.4 -9.8 -0.653061 -0.534247 -1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01

Cyprus’s Services sector decreased to -46.8 by -429.0% on January 2021 from -48.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Services sector decreased by -26138.0%. Cyprus’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -46.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.45.Cyprus’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -47.4 by -669.0% on January 2021 from -50.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -29506.0%. Cyprus’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -47.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -32.4583.Cyprus’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -6.0 by -5620.0% on January 2021 from -13.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -60000.0%. Cyprus’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.2167.Cyprus’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -42.2 by -1677.0% on January 2021 from -50.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -22749.0%. Cyprus’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -42.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.6167.Cyprus’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -50.7 by 1242.0% on January 2021 from -45.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -27128.0%. Cyprus’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -50.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.25.Cyprus’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased to 1.2 by -25000.0% on January 2021 from -0.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -11263.0%. Cyprus’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.44167.Cyprus’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased to 4.8 by -5676.0% on January 2021 from 11.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -30870.0%. Cyprus’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 4.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.958333.

Cyprus Retail Sector

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector -19.8 -26.4 -0.25 -0.220472 1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) -35.6 -50.5 -0.29505 -0.282258 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) -0.5 2.6 -1.19231 -0.910714 -1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) -47.4 -48.8 -0.0286885 0.858824 1.0 -1.0 0.7 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels -21 -21.9 -0.0410959 1.14286 -1.0 -1.0 0.833333 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) -32.9 -52.3 -0.370937 -0.457096 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) -0.3 -1.9 -0.842105 -1.15789 1.0 -1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
retail sales 47.3 11.6 3.07759 -158.667 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-30
retail sales MoM -1.2 8.3 -1.14458 -0.952381 -1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-30

Cyprus’s Retail sector icnreased to -28.4 by 327.0% on January 2021 from -27.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Retail sector increased by 38136.0%. Cyprus’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -28.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.2417.Cyprus’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -55.4 by 1283.0% on January 2021 from -49.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) increased by 83898.0%. Cyprus’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -55.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -32.2167.Cyprus’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 1.4 by -3000.0% on January 2021 from 2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -8293.0%. Cyprus’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 1.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.075.Cyprus’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -50.9 by 262.0% on January 2021 from -49.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) increased by 19253.0%. Cyprus’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -50.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -36.525.Cyprus’s Retail – Stock Levels icnreased to -20.1 by 469.0% on January 2021 from -19.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Retail – Stock Levels increased by 115625.0%. Cyprus’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of -20.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.4.Cyprus’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -54.5 by 461.0% on January 2021 from -52.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) increased by 262500.0%. Cyprus’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -54.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -33.5667.Cyprus’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 0.1 by -8750.0% on January 2021 from 0.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -10833.0%. Cyprus’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.025.Cyprus’s retail sales decreased to -1.3 by -53.57% on October 2020 from -2.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s retail sales decreased by -121.31%. Cyprus’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of -1.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.06667.Cyprus’s retail sales MoM decreased to -2.0 by -68.75% on September 2020 from -6.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s retail sales MoM decreased by -28.57%. Cyprus’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of -2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.13333.

Cyprus Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector -23.1 -22.2 0.0405405 1.48387 -1.0 -1.0 0.883333 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -44.2 -45.8 -0.0349345 1.0463 -1.0 -1.0 0.916667 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 10.6 1.4 6.57143 0.0816327 1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months -2 1.3 -2.53846 -1.66667 -1.0 -1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
building permits 627 747 -0.160643 2.21538 -1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) -24.1 -39.2 -0.385204 4.12766 1.0 -1.0 0.966667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 34.6 22.5 0.537778 2.56701 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 17.5 10.8 0.62037 0.88172 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) -1.2 -0.6 1 -1.85714 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 2.8 1 1.8 -0.65 1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) -0.1 -0.1 0 -2 -1.0 -1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 57.2 72.4 -0.209945 -0.32785 -1.0 -1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 12.5 8.4 0.488095 5.57895 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-04-01

Cyprus’s Construction sector icnreased to -25.0 by 12727.0% on January 2021 from -11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Construction sector increased by 115000.0%. Cyprus’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -25.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.0.Cyprus’s Construction – Current Order Books icnreased to -44.0 by 10000.0% on January 2021 from -22.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 26667.0%. Cyprus’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -44.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -25.0.Cyprus’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to -2.0 by -20000.0% on January 2021 from 2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -11053.0%. Cyprus’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.33333.Cyprus’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months icnreased to -7.0 by 60000.0% on January 2021 from -1.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -15833.0%. Cyprus’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.75.Cyprus’s building permits icnreased to 690.0 by 31.93% on September 2020 from 523.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s building permits increased by 10.93%. Cyprus’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 690.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 593.583.Cyprus’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -32.0 by 25556.0% on January 2021 from -9.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -21034.0%. Cyprus’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -32.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.33333.Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased to 21.0 by -3438.0% on January 2021 from 32.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -5227.0%. Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 21.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 29.4167.Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) decreased to 10.0 by -4444.0% on January 2021 from 18.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) decreased by -5455.0%. Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.3333.Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) icnreased to 3.0 by 5000.0% on January 2021 from 2.0 in the previous . Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.0.Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) icnreased to 4.0 by 10000.0% on January 2021 from 2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -6923.0%. Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.08333.Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.916667.Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) icnreased to 71.0 by 2034.0% on January 2021 from 59.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 132000.0%. Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 71.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.1667.Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) decreased by -6667.0%. Cyprus’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.5.

 

Cyprus GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 5331.1 5218.9 0.0214988 0.0316993 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-01-01
gdp growth annual -1.6 -4.4 -0.636364 -1.2807 -1.0 -1.0 0.433333 2021-01-01
gdp 24.5646 24.962 -0.0159202 0.0248573 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
gdp growth 2 1.1 0.818182 0.25 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-01-01

Cyprus’s Real GDP icnreased to 5166.8 by 9.38% on July 2020 from 4723.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Real GDP increased by 2.89%. Cyprus’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 5166.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5252.67.Cyprus’s gdp growth annual decreased to -4.4 by -64.23% on July 2020 from -12.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s gdp growth annual decreased by -197.78%. Cyprus’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -4.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.54167.Cyprus’s gdp decreased to 24.5646 by -1.59% on January 2019 from 24.962 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s gdp increased by 2.49%. Cyprus’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 24.5646 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 24.3276.Cyprus’s gdp growth decreased to 9.4 by -171.76% on July 2020 from -13.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s gdp growth increased by 944.44%. Cyprus’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 9.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.325.

 

Cyprus inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 3.1 2.4 0.291667 -2.55 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-06-30
consumer price index cpi 102.39 102.07 0.0031351 0.0314294 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
Producer Price Index 104.5 102.1 0.0235064 0.0418744 1.0 1.0 0.85 2021-05-31

Cyprus’s inflation cpi decreased to -0.6 by -25.0% on November 2020 from -0.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s inflation cpi increased by 20.0%. Cyprus’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.483333.Cyprus’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 100.98 by 0.47% on November 2020 from 100.51 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s consumer price index cpi decreased by -0.61%. Cyprus’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 100.98 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 100.223.Cyprus’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 99.0 by 1.43% on November 2020 from 97.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Producer Price Index decreased by -4.99%. Cyprus’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 99.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 101.025.

 

Cyprus Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -5.7 1.5 -4.8 -7.33333 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget -187.9 -568.8 -0.669655 -1.54369 1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-01-01
government revenues 2070.7 2518.9 -0.177935 0.098981 -1.0 1.0 0.516667 2021-01-01
fiscal expenditure 2258.6 3087.7 -0.268517 0.450983 -1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-01-01

Cyprus’s Government budget decreased to -277.4 by -166.47% on October 2019 from 417.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Government budget increased by 251.14%. Cyprus’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -277.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.1333.Cyprus’s government revenues icnreased to 2216.0 by 56.52% on May 2020 from 1415.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s government revenues increased by 7.29%. Cyprus’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 2216.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2105.07.Cyprus’s fiscal expenditure decreased to 2288.4 by -3.63% on May 2020 from 2374.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s fiscal expenditure increased by 38.15%. Cyprus’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 2288.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2240.12.

Cyprus Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
Money Supply M2 18440200 18178100 0.0144184 0.204156 1.0 1.0 1 2007-11-30
Money Supply M3 23374 22649 0.0320102 0.207834 1.0 1.0 1 2007-12-31

Cyprus’s interest rate Cyprus’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.05 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.05.Cyprus’s Money Supply M2 icnreased to 18440200.0 by 1.44% on November 2007 from 18178100.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s Money Supply M2 increased by 20.42%. Cyprus’s Money Supply M2 trend is down since the current value of 18440200.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 16993500.0.

Cyprus Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 96.8 92.6 0.0453564 0.0408602 -1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 9.9 9.2 0.076087 0.269231 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate 18.7 18.7 0 0.395522 -1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-03-31
long term unemployment rate 2.8 2.4 0.166667 -0.125 1.0 -1.0 0.508333 2021-01-01

Cyprus’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 102.3 by -493.0% on January 2021 from 107.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Cyprus’s EEI – Employment Composite increased by 230.0%. Cyprus’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 102.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 100.483.Cyprus’s unemployment rate icnreased to 10.5 by 12.9% on October 2020 from 9.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s unemployment rate increased by 59.09%. Cyprus’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 10.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.55833.Cyprus’s youth unemployment rate On a year on year basis Cyprus’s youth unemployment rate increased by 30.49%. Cyprus’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 21.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17.475.Cyprus’s long term unemployment rate icnreased to 2.2 by 22.22% on May 2020 from 1.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -48.84%. Cyprus’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 2.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.36667.

Cyprus Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -784.2 -182 3.30879 -3.15795 -1.0 -1.0 0.0666667 2020-05-01
current account to gdp -6.7 -7 -0.0428571 -0.432203 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
exports 217723 177865 0.224091 -0.285747 1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-03-31
imports 584408 733214 -0.20295 -0.0857497 -1.0 -1.0 0.366667 2021-03-31
balance of trade -366685 -555349 -0.339722 0.0965624 1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-03-31

Cyprus’s current account icnreased to -784.2 by 330.88% on May 2020 from -182.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s current account decreased by -315.8%. Cyprus’s current account trend is down since the current value of -784.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -405.533.Cyprus’s current account to gdp decreased to -6.7 by -4.29% on January 2019 from -7.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s current account to gdp decreased by -43.22%. Cyprus’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of -6.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.875.Cyprus’s exports icnreased to 272237.0 by 54.68% on October 2020 from 175995.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s exports increased by 12.26%. Cyprus’s exports trend is down since the current value of 272237.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 240966.0.Cyprus’s imports icnreased to 798689.0 by 37.89% on October 2020 from 579218.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s imports increased by 14.92%. Cyprus’s imports trend is down since the current value of 798689.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 626603.0.Cyprus’s balance of trade icnreased to -526452.0 by 30.56% on October 2020 from -403223.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s balance of trade increased by 16.99%. Cyprus’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -526452.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -385136.0.

Cyprus Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 973.1 1000.3 -0.0271918 -0.0722662 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-06-30
gold reserves 13.9 13.9 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.458333 2019-04-01

Cyprus’s foreign exchange reserves decreased to 991.3 by -5.39% on November 2020 from 1047.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 8.28%. Cyprus’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 991.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1010.11.Cyprus’s gold reserves Cyprus’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 13.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.9.Cyprus’s government debt to gdp decreased to 95.5 by -5.07% on January 2019 from 100.6 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s government debt to gdp increased by 76.85%. Cyprus’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 95.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 84.7167.Cyprus’s external debt decreased to 188589.0 by -0.43% on March 2020 from 189396.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s external debt increased by 76.21%. Cyprus’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 188589.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 152511.0.

 

Cyprus Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 118.2 94 0.257447 1.59211 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 192088 189307 0.0146904 0.798981 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-01

Cyprus’s government debt to gdp decreased to 95.5 by -5.07% on January 2019 from 100.6 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s government debt to gdp increased by 76.85%. Cyprus’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 95.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 84.7167.Cyprus’s external debt decreased to 188589.0 by -0.43% on March 2020 from 189396.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s external debt increased by 76.21%. Cyprus’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 188589.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 152511.0.

Cyprus Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update

Cyprus’s balance of trade icnreased to -526452.0 by 30.56% on October 2020 from -403223.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Cyprus’s balance of trade increased by 16.99%. Cyprus’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -526452.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -385136.0.

 

Cyprus macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Cyprus economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Cyprus Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Cyprus Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Cyprus’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
Read more on how to analyze a country’s macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world.Click here to learn more.

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