Global Top-Down View
MacroVar’s aim is to provide you with the financial research, data analysis and statistical models to help you maximize your portfolio’s risk adjusted return.
Financial markets are affected by macroeconomic conditions. MacroVar models monitor Global Macro, Geopolitics, Price dynamics and factors affecting specific financial markets.
The most important factor in investing and trading having a view of whether the global macro and market environment is risk-on or risk-off. MacroVar Models a series of advanced statistical models to gauge financial conditions and notify MacroVar users before,
During Risk-on environments stocks and commodities are the best asset class. This environment is carried by expanding corporate earnings, optimistic economic outlook, and accommodative central bank policies. During risk-off environments, bonds (under certain conditions) and cash are the best asset classes since there are widespread corporate earnings downgrades, contracting or slowing economic data and uncertain central bank policy. During risk-on periods:
| Stocks: Global Stock Markets Up, US Stocks Breadth Up, Momentum & Trends Up |
| Sectors: Cyclical Sectors stronger than Defensive Sectors |
| Short Term Interest Rates (STIR) Futures markets down, Market expects central bank interest rate hikes in the future to slowdown the economy |
| Bonds Low-Risk long-term Bonds (US, Germany) Down, higher-risk long-term Bonds (Europe Peripheral Countries, Emerging markets) Up – dynamics dependent on inflation expectations |
| Yield Curve Bear Steepening |
| Currencies US Dollar moderate, Currencies related to cyclical sectors and commodities up, Risk Off currencies moderate |
| Financial risk Stock Volatility Moderate to Low, Term Structure in Contango Corporate Bonds Spreads: Down |
| Global Business Confidence Macroeconomic indicators represented by Global Manufacturing & Services PMI strong – Momentum (YY) & Trends (12MA) |
| Risk Off assets JPY, Gold, CHF, Long-term bonds and VIX stable down |
The trends described above are indicative and don’t always apply since specific financial markets are affected by factors specific to each market. Hence, it is important to monitor factors designed for each market. MacroVar models provide signals based on objective quantitative signals to allow you to identify trading and investing opportunities objectively for each market.
Investment Management Stages Checkout below how MacroVar can help you in all stages of the Investment Management process.
Trading Ideas MacroVar follows a top-down approach to analyze financial markets using macroeconomic and financial factors. Learn More for each asset class monitored by MacroVar by clicking the respective section (Stocks, Volatility, Fixed Income, Credit, Currencies, Commodities, Sectors).
Price Dynamics MacroVar analyzes the price dynamics of each financial asset as well as statistically related factors with each market to help you time your trading ideas correctly and adjust your downside protection.
Risk Management MacroVar Risk management models analyze financial market risk conditions to help you adjust your portfolio’s exposures based on the current environment.
Portfolio Management This stage is not currently covered by MacroVar systems. MacroVar next version is designed to provide you with a complete set of tools to manage your portfolio. You should manage your portfolio’s gross, net exposure, hedge your positions, perform correlation analysis between different positions, define position limits and periodically monitor your portfolio’s performance. Learn More in the MacroVar Portfolio Management section.