How to quantify Macro Trends
MacroVar monitors macro trends by analysing more than 2,000 macroeconomic variables of the largest 35 countries in the world.
MacroVar calculates indicators for more than 2,000 economic variables. MacroVar monitors economic trend and momentum using the following formulas.
A macroeconomic indicator is in an uptrend when last value is higher than its twelve month moving average and its twelve month moving average slope is positive (last twelve month moving average is higher than the previous month’s twelve month moving average)
Lastly, MacroVar calculates the number of months the current value has recorded highs or lows. Trend change is assumed when a specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more.
A macroeconomic indicator’s momentum is monitored by calculating its long-term year over year (Y/Y) return and its short-term month on month (M/M) return.