Estonia Economy

Estonia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -1.9 by -72.46% on May 2020 from -6.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -143.18%. Estonia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -1.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.70833.Estonia’s inflation cpi decreased to -1.1 by -26.67% on November 2020 from -1.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s inflation cpi decreased by -161.11%. Estonia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.225.Estonia’s unemployment rate icnreased to 7.7 by 8.45% on May 2020 from 7.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s unemployment rate increased by 48.08%. Estonia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 7.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.36667.

Estonia Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Estonia Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Estonia’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Estonia macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Estonia Macro Model

Estonia News

Estonia Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 5.4 -1.2 -5.5 0.285714 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-01-01
inflation cpi 3.8 3.6 0.0555556 -4.8 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 7.1 7.4 -0.0405405 0.0441176 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-01-01
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 102.9 94 0.0946809 0.431154 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 18.2 8.4 1.16667 3.91892 1.0 1.0 0 2018-02-28
external debt 25919 24098.6 0.0755397 0.315659 1.0 1.0 0.75 2021-01-01
gold reserves 0.25 0.25 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.508333 2019-04-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -323.3 -824.8 -0.608026 -3.91524 -1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-01-01
current account to gdp 2.2 1.7 0.294118 -1.14667 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
central bank balance sheet 14160800 13055900 0.0846284 0.85897 1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-01-01
banks balance sheet 34888.7 34210.6 0.0198213 0.238026 1.0 1.0 1 2021-02-28
money supply m2 22910 22553 0.0158294 0.20617 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-05-31
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -368.1 -35 9.51714 5.90619 -1.0 -1.0 0.933333 2020-10-31
government revenues 3109.1 2903.7 0.0707373 0.180462 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-10-31
fiscal expenditure 3470.9 2938.7 0.1811 0.291738 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2020-10-31

Estonia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -1.9 by -72.46% on May 2020 from -6.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -143.18%. Estonia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -1.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.70833.Estonia’s inflation cpi decreased to -1.1 by -26.67% on November 2020 from -1.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s inflation cpi decreased by -161.11%. Estonia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.225.Estonia’s unemployment rate icnreased to 7.7 by 8.45% on May 2020 from 7.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s unemployment rate increased by 48.08%. Estonia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 7.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.36667.Estonia’s building permits icnreased to 3338.0 by 78.6% on March 2020 from 1869.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s building permits increased by 83.41%. Estonia’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 3338.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2046.33.Estonia’s business confidence decreased to 89.4 by -1.54% on November 2020 from 90.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s business confidence decreased by -5.99%. Estonia’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 89.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 85.775.Estonia’s consumer confidence icnreased to -22.6 by 82.26% on November 2020 from -12.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s consumer confidence increased by 3666.67%. Estonia’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -22.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.1833.

Estonia Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 108 107.5 0.00465116 0.50838 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-06-30
ESI - Economic Composite 102.9 94 0.0946809 0.431154 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector 14.7 3.6 3.08333 -1.4362 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -18.1 -19.4 -0.0670103 0.214765 -1.0 -1.0 0.7 2021-04-01
Construction sector 3.9 -3.5 -2.11429 -1.09701 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-04-01
Retail sector -0.4 9.3 -1.04301 -1.07273 1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-03-01
Services sector 7.8 -12.5 -1.624 -1.1844 1.0 1.0 0.333333 2021-04-01

Estonia’s business confidence decreased to 89.4 by -1.54% on November 2020 from 90.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s business confidence decreased by -5.99%. Estonia’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 89.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 85.775.Estonia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 89.4 by -154.0% on January 2021 from 90.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -325.0%. Estonia’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 89.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 85.3583.Estonia’s Manufacturing sector decreased to -4.5 by -3478.0% on January 2021 from -6.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -6939.0%. Estonia’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -4.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.5833.Estonia’s Consumer sector icnreased to -22.6 by 8226.0% on January 2021 from -12.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Consumer sector increased by 366667.0%. Estonia’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -22.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.1833.Estonia’s Construction sector decreased to -23.0 by -2333.0% on January 2021 from -30.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Construction sector increased by 22857.0%. Estonia’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -23.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.25.Estonia’s Retail sector icnreased to 7.8 by 9500.0% on January 2021 from 4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Retail sector decreased by -2277.0%. Estonia’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of 7.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.59167.Estonia’s Services sector icnreased to -11.9 by 1122.0% on January 2021 from -10.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Services sector decreased by -72632.0%. Estonia’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -11.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.9083.

Estonia Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -9.4 -16.9 -0.443787 -0.505263 1.0 1.0 0.533333 2021-06-30
car registrations 2656 2215 0.199097 0.587567 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -16.9 -32.3 -0.47678 -0.566667 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) 0.1 -2.6 -1.03846 -1.0087 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 15 0.7 20.4286 0.119403 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 33.4 37.7 -0.114058 -0.536754 -1.0 -1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -50.8 -38.4 0.322917 3.13008 -1.0 -1.0 0.983333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -19.7 -23.8 -0.172269 -0.0663507 -1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 23 21.2 0.0849057 -0.0688259 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-04-01

Estonia’s consumer confidence icnreased to -22.6 by 82.26% on November 2020 from -12.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s consumer confidence increased by 3666.67%. Estonia’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -22.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.1833.Estonia’s car registrations decreased to 1544.0 by -0.58% on November 2020 from 1553.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s car registrations decreased by -24.76%. Estonia’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 1544.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1642.67.Estonia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -30.4 by 3047.0% on January 2021 from -23.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 1510000.0%. Estonia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -30.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.8167.Estonia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to 0.9 by 80000.0% on January 2021 from 0.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -8475.0%. Estonia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 0.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.325.Estonia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) icnreased to -3.3 by 155000.0% on January 2021 from -0.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -10640.0%. Estonia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -3.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19.7.Estonia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 39.9 by 1565.0% on January 2021 from 34.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 36395.0%. Estonia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 39.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 31.1333.Estonia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -59.8 by 15339.0% on January 2021 from -23.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 32411.0%. Estonia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -59.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27.3417.Estonia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased to -3.9 by -7937.0% on January 2021 from -18.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased by -8347.0%. Estonia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -3.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.45.Estonia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation icnreased to 26.7 by 637.0% on January 2021 from 25.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation increased by 1410.0%. Estonia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 26.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 24.6083.

Estonia Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector 14.7 3.6 3.08333 -1.4362 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books 4.5 -9.2 -1.48913 -1.0989 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 34.5 17.9 0.927374 -2.36364 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 21.4 3.3 5.48485 -2.36306 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books 1.9 -10.5 -1.18095 -1.04008 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -13.1 -9.8 0.336735 -27.2 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 26.4 10.3 1.56311 -1.48 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
industrial production 15.9 16.9 -0.0591716 -1.90341 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-05-31
industrial production mom -1.5 4.4 -1.34091 -0.821429 -1.0 1.0 0.55 2021-05-31
capacity utilization 76.5 71.6 0.0684358 0.0351827 1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-04-01

Estonia’s Manufacturing sector decreased to -4.5 by -3478.0% on January 2021 from -6.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -6939.0%. Estonia’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -4.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.5833.Estonia’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased to -24.9 by -846.0% on January 2021 from -27.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased by -2477.0%. Estonia’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -24.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -34.1833.Estonia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased to -0.2 by -9608.0% on January 2021 from -5.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -9697.0%. Estonia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.76667.Estonia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to -2.4 by -4419.0% on January 2021 from -4.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -6667.0%. Estonia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of -2.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -18.9833.Estonia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books icnreased to -24.9 by 462.0% on January 2021 from -23.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books decreased by -2432.0%. Estonia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -24.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -34.15.Estonia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) icnreased to -10.4 by 2683.0% on January 2021 from -8.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -32128.0%. Estonia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of -10.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.875.Estonia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to 0.9 by -15000.0% on January 2021 from -1.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -11452.0%. Estonia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 0.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.425.Estonia’s industrial production decreased to 1.1 by -147.83% on October 2020 from -2.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s industrial production decreased by -125.58%. Estonia’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of 1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.36667.Estonia’s industrial production mom icnreased to 2.3 by 64.29% on October 2020 from 1.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s industrial production mom decreased by -227.78%. Estonia’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 2.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.0583333.Estonia’s capacity utilization icnreased to 69.6 by 5.45% on August 2020 from 66.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s capacity utilization decreased by -6.95%. Estonia’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 69.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 71.375.

Estonia Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector 7.8 -12.5 -1.624 -1.1844 1.0 1.0 0.333333 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 14.9 -17.6 -1.84659 -1.18171 1.0 1.0 0.333333 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 13.9 -3.9 -4.5641 -1.44839 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) 3.5 -9.2 -1.38043 -1.17857 1.0 1.0 0.316667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) 5.2 -10.5 -1.49524 -1.20635 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) -2.6 -5.6 -0.535714 -0.682927 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 17.8 -1.4 -13.7143 -1.54769 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01

Estonia’s Services sector icnreased to -11.9 by 1122.0% on January 2021 from -10.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Services sector decreased by -72632.0%. Estonia’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -11.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.9083.Estonia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -20.7 by 4786.0% on January 2021 from -14.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) increased by 40488.0%. Estonia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -20.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.775.Estonia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -7.9 by 3621.0% on January 2021 from -5.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -20260.0%. Estonia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -7.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.70833.Estonia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -6.3 by -2500.0% on January 2021 from -8.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -20328.0%. Estonia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -6.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -18.8667.Estonia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased to -8.8 by -1020.0% on January 2021 from -9.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -33158.0%. Estonia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -8.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.1.Estonia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased to -5.6 by -4227.0% on January 2021 from -9.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -36667.0%. Estonia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -5.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.21667.Estonia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) icnreased to 3.4 by 58000.0% on January 2021 from 0.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -5904.0%. Estonia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 3.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.93333.

Estonia Retail Sector

 

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector -0.4 9.3 -1.04301 -1.07273 1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-03-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) 4 -0.4 -11 -1.06981 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 43.1 27.8 0.55036 16.9583 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) -1.7 12.8 -1.13281 -0.854701 -1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels 8.6 5.2 0.653846 -0.730408 -1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) 10.2 -8.7 -2.17241 -1.1562 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) 3.2 5.2 -0.384615 -1.07407 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
retail sales 17.8 22.5 -0.208889 -20.7778 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-05-31
retail sales MoM 17.3 -0.6 -29.8333 -0.227679 1.0 -1.0 0.433333 2021-05-31

Estonia’s Retail sector icnreased to 7.8 by 9500.0% on January 2021 from 4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Retail sector decreased by -2277.0%. Estonia’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of 7.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.59167.Estonia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 7.7 by -1047.0% on January 2021 from 8.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -3125.0%. Estonia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 7.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.075.Estonia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 18.9 by -1127.0% on January 2021 from 21.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -4202.0%. Estonia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 18.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 22.6417.Estonia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to 18.2 by 6250.0% on January 2021 from 11.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -2661.0%. Estonia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 18.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.5.Estonia’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased to 3.2 by -2558.0% on January 2021 from 4.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -7987.0%. Estonia’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 3.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.0417.Estonia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to 8.3 by 6600.0% on January 2021 from 5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -6140.0%. Estonia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 8.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.775.Estonia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -5.9 by 6389.0% on January 2021 from -3.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -19833.0%. Estonia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -5.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.175.Estonia’s retail sales icnreased to 6.2 by 5.08% on November 2020 from 5.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s retail sales increased by 67.57%. Estonia’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 6.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.8.Estonia’s retail sales MoM decreased to -1.6 by -141.03% on November 2020 from 3.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s retail sales MoM decreased by -20.0%. Estonia’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of -1.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.1.

 

Estonia Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector 3.9 -3.5 -2.11429 -1.09701 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -13.4 -16.8 -0.202381 -0.692661 1.0 1.0 0.55 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 51.8 25.8 1.00775 -2.17727 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 21.2 9.8 1.16327 -1.57453 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
building permits 2099 2089 0.00478698 0.252387 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-04-01
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) 21.3 2.8 6.60714 -2.07576 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 16.1 16 0.00625 0.659794 1.0 1.0 0.833333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 30.9 36.5 -0.153425 -0.27972 -1.0 -1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 5.8 10.8 -0.462963 1.7619 -1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 31.1 21.4 0.453271 0.955975 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 8 0.1 79 3 1.0 1.0 0.825 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 3.2 4.3 -0.255814 0.103448 -1.0 1.0 0.65 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 4.4 10.7 -0.588785 -0.818182 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2021-04-01

Estonia’s Construction sector decreased to -23.0 by -2333.0% on January 2021 from -30.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Construction sector increased by 22857.0%. Estonia’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -23.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.25.Estonia’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased to -44.0 by -435.0% on January 2021 from -46.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 21429.0%. Estonia’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -44.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -35.4167.Estonia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to -7.0 by -3636.0% on January 2021 from -11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months increased by 1667.0%. Estonia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.5833.Estonia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to -2.0 by -8462.0% on January 2021 from -13.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -30000.0%. Estonia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.0833.Estonia’s building permits icnreased to 3338.0 by 78.6% on March 2020 from 1869.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s building permits increased by 83.41%. Estonia’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 3338.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2046.33.Estonia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased to -17.0 by -2609.0% on January 2021 from -23.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) increased by 7000.0%. Estonia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -17.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.75.Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) icnreased to 14.0 by 2727.0% on January 2021 from 11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -1250.0%. Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 14.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.5.Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) icnreased to 61.0 by 339.0% on January 2021 from 59.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 4524.0%. Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 61.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 52.3333.Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased to 2.0 by -6000.0% on January 2021 from 5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -8182.0%. Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.33333.Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased to 8.0 by -2000.0% on January 2021 from 10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -5556.0%. Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14.9167.Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased to -1.0 by -20000.0% on January 2021 from 1.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased by -20000.0%. Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of -1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.16667.Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) icnreased to 8.0 by 1429.0% on January 2021 from 7.0 in the previous . Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.58333.Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) decreased to 7.0 by -2222.0% on January 2021 from 9.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 13333.0%. Estonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.83333.

 

Estonia GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 6008.5 6552.7 -0.0830497 0.0921348 -1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-01-01
gdp growth annual 5.4 -1.2 -5.5 0.285714 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-01-01
gdp 31.3869 30.7472 0.0208051 0.398354 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
gdp growth 4.8 2.8 0.714286 47 1.0 1.0 1 2021-01-01

Estonia’s Real GDP icnreased to 6143.76 by 7.59% on May 2020 from 5710.18 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s Real GDP increased by 9.61%. Estonia’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 6143.76 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5980.37.Estonia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -1.9 by -72.46% on May 2020 from -6.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -143.18%. Estonia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -1.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.70833.Estonia’s gdp icnreased to 31.3869 by 2.08% on January 2019 from 30.7472 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s gdp increased by 39.84%. Estonia’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 31.3869 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 24.8731.Estonia’s gdp growth decreased to 3.3 by -160.0% on July 2020 from -5.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s gdp growth increased by 1550.0%. Estonia’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 3.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.433333.

Estonia inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 3.8 3.6 0.0555556 -4.8 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 2.7 2.3 0.173913 -3.45455 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-06-30
consumer price index cpi 220.65 218.16 0.0114136 0.0379622 1.0 1.0 0.916667 2021-06-30
Producer Price Index 121.17 118.06 0.0263425 0.0941846 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
PPI Index 9.4 8.4 0.119048 -5.08696 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-06-30

Estonia’s inflation cpi decreased to -1.1 by -26.67% on November 2020 from -1.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s inflation cpi decreased by -161.11%. Estonia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.225.Estonia’s core inflation rate decreased to -0.7 by -58.82% on November 2020 from -1.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s core inflation rate decreased by -124.14%. Estonia’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of -0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.183333.Estonia’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 212.49 by 0.12% on November 2020 from 212.24 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s consumer price index cpi decreased by -1.12%. Estonia’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 212.49 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 212.911.Estonia’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 110.59 by 0.12% on November 2020 from 110.46 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s Producer Price Index decreased by -1.78%. Estonia’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 110.59 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 110.153.Estonia’s PPI Index decreased to -0.9 by -52.63% on November 2020 from -1.9 in the previous Monthly. Estonia’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -0.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.59167.

Estonia Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -4.9 0.1 -50 0.884615 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget -368.1 -35 9.51714 5.90619 -1.0 -1.0 0.933333 2020-10-31
government revenues 3109.1 2903.7 0.0707373 0.180462 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-10-31
fiscal expenditure 3470.9 2938.7 0.1811 0.291738 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2020-10-31

Estonia’s Government budget icnreased to -424.3 by 512.26% on January 2020 from -69.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s Government budget increased by 275.49%. Estonia’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -424.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -60.9333.Estonia’s government revenues decreased to 2246.9 by -25.95% on January 2020 from 3034.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s government revenues increased by 14.42%. Estonia’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 2246.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2528.24.Estonia’s fiscal expenditure decreased to 2671.1 by -13.94% on January 2020 from 3103.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s fiscal expenditure increased by 28.62%. Estonia’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 2671.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2589.17.

Estonia Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
central bank balance sheet 14160800 13055900 0.0846284 0.85897 1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-01-01
banks balance sheet 34888.7 34210.6 0.0198213 0.238026 1.0 1.0 1 2021-02-28
money supply m1 20110 19619 0.0250268 0.287864 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-05-31
money supply m2 22910 22553 0.0158294 0.20617 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-05-31

Estonia’s interest rate Estonia’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.05 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.05.Estonia’s central bank balance sheet decreased to 9248430.0 by -0.88% on January 2020 from 9330400.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s central bank balance sheet increased by 36.17%. Estonia’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 9248430.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8303360.0.Estonia’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 32869.4 by 0.39% on September 2020 from 32742.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s banks balance sheet increased by 12.13%. Estonia’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 32869.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 30167.2.Estonia’s money supply m2 icnreased to 20161.0 by 2.21% on November 2020 from 19726.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s money supply m2 increased by 13.65%. Estonia’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 20161.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18904.0.

Estonia Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 111.5 98.3 0.134283 0.810065 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 7.1 7.4 -0.0405405 0.0441176 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-01-01
youth unemployment rate 14.7 14.9 -0.0134228 -0.178771 -1.0 -1.0 0.383333 2021-05-31
long term unemployment rate 1.8 1.4 0.285714 0.125 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-01-01

Estonia’s EEI – Employment Composite icnreased to 94.5 by 216.0% on January 2021 from 92.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Estonia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -63.0%. Estonia’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 94.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 86.3.Estonia’s unemployment rate icnreased to 7.7 by 8.45% on May 2020 from 7.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s unemployment rate increased by 48.08%. Estonia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 7.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.36667.Estonia’s youth unemployment rate decreased to 20.7 by -0.96% on September 2020 from 20.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s youth unemployment rate increased by 122.58%. Estonia’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 20.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14.525.Estonia’s long term unemployment rate icnreased to 1.3 by 18.18% on February 2020 from 1.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -38.1%. Estonia’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 1.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.24167.

Estonia Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -323.3 -824.8 -0.608026 -3.91524 -1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-01-01
current account to gdp 2.2 1.7 0.294118 -1.14667 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
exports 1471 1212 0.213696 0.1909 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-03-31
imports 1644 1647 -0.00182149 0.503292 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
balance of trade -175 -84 1.08333 0.909863 -1.0 -1.0 0.95 2021-05-31

Estonia’s current account decreased to -139.4 by -144.14% on July 2020 from 315.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s current account decreased by -164.21%. Estonia’s current account trend is down since the current value of -139.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 127.308.Estonia’s current account to gdp icnreased to 2.2 by 29.41% on January 2019 from 1.7 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s current account to gdp decreased by -114.67%. Estonia’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of 2.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.6.Estonia’s exports icnreased to 1403.0 by 6.61% on October 2020 from 1316.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s exports increased by 10.02%. Estonia’s exports trend is down since the current value of 1403.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1160.45.Estonia’s imports icnreased to 1377.0 by 6.58% on October 2020 from 1292.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s imports decreased by -4.88%. Estonia’s imports trend is down since the current value of 1377.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1243.3.Estonia’s balance of trade icnreased to 27.0 by 8.0% on October 2020 from 25.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s balance of trade decreased by -115.67%. Estonia’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 27.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -82.8593.

Estonia Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gold reserves 0.25 0.25 0 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.508333 2019-04-01

Estonia’s gold reserves Estonia’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 0.25 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.25.Estonia’s government debt to gdp decreased to 8.4 by -8.7% on January 2018 from 9.2 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s government debt to gdp increased by 90.91%. Estonia’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 8.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.91667.Estonia’s external debt decreased to 24009.9 by -0.67% on May 2020 from 24172.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s external debt increased by 21.1%. Estonia’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 24009.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 21157.0.

Estonia Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 18.2 8.4 1.16667 3.91892 1.0 1.0 0 2018-02-28
external debt 25919 24098.6 0.0755397 0.315659 1.0 1.0 0.75 2021-01-01

Estonia’s government debt to gdp decreased to 8.4 by -8.7% on January 2018 from 9.2 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s government debt to gdp increased by 90.91%. Estonia’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 8.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.91667.Estonia’s external debt decreased to 24009.9 by -0.67% on May 2020 from 24172.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s external debt increased by 21.1%. Estonia’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 24009.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 21157.0.

Estonia Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
bank lending rate 3.28 3.64 -0.0989011 -0.143603 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-05-31
loans to private sector 7670 7712.8 -0.00554922 0.0299035 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-05-31

Estonia’s bank lending rate icnreased to 3.99 by 2.84% on October 2020 from 3.88 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s bank lending rate increased by 5.28%. Estonia’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 3.99 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.8825.Estonia’s loans to private sector icnreased to 7665.6 by 1.55% on November 2020 from 7548.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Estonia’s loans to private sector increased by 4.21%. Estonia’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 7665.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7456.67.

 

Estonia macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Estonia economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Estonia Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Estonia Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Estonia’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
Read more on how to analyze a country’s macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world.Click here to learn more.

Feedback
Feedback
How would you rate your experience?
Do you have any additional comment?
Next
Enter your email if you'd like us to contact you regarding with your feedback.
Back
Submit
Thank you for submitting your feedback!