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U.S. Equities Update: Choppy Market
Indices Performance:
S&P: +9 bps, closing at 5,482 with MOC: -$800m to SELL.
NDX: +19 bps, closing at 19,789.
R2K: +100 bps, closing at 2,038.
Dow: +9 bps, closing at 39,127.
Market Activity:
Shares Traded: 10.6 billion shares across all US equity exchanges, compared to the YTD daily average of 11.5 billion shares.
Volatility Index (VIX): -247 bps, now at 12.24.
Crude Oil: +104 bps, priced at $81.74.
10-Year Treasury Yields: -4 bps, at 4.28%.
Gold: +128 bps, at $2,327.
DXY: +11 bps, at 105.931.
Bitcoin: +5 bps, at $61,446.
Market Sentiment: The session was characterized by sideways trading as investors processed various macroeconomic data:
Real GDP growth revised up by 0.1 percentage points to +1.4%.
Durable Goods: Slightly above expectations.
Claims: Reported at 233,000 vs. 235,000 consensus.
Investors are positioning ahead of the presidential debate, the upcoming PCE inflation report, and significant liquidity events including month-end, quarter-end, and the Russell Rebalance.
Market Dynamics:
Yields: Remained stable (10YR -4 bps at 4.28%) despite substantial Treasury issuance and record inflows into TLT, suggesting a local floor amid hot CPI prints globally.
US Pensions: Expected to sell $11 billion in US equities for quarter-end, ranking in the 69th percentile over the past three years in absolute terms.
Sector Analysis:
Technology: Debate over whether the recent action in software vs. semiconductors is rotational or technical, with Growth Software up 2.5%. Hedge funds have net sold TMT stocks, led by semiconductors and semiconductor equipment.
Amazon (AMZN): Achieved fresh all-time highs, bolstered by FDX volume beat, its stake in Rivian (RIVN), positive sell-side notes, China expansion, and the upcoming Prime Day.
Healthcare: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) down 22% after lowering guidance due to retail front-end weakness, significant store closures, and a planned stake reduction in VillageMD. This affected its distributor (COR -4%) and retail pharmacy peer (CVS -3.5%).
Retail:
GS Retail Sentiment Basket: Up 128 bps.
Chewy (CHWY): Momentarily spiked 34% following a post by Roaring Kitty, but the rally was short-lived. WOOF also surged on the tweet but was halted soon after.
Trading Desk Activity:
Overall activity level rated 6 out of 10.
Executed flow had a +102 bps buy skew, matching the 30-day average.
Long/Short Funds: -115 bps net sellers, driven by utilities/industrials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary.
Hedge Funds: 1.10% net buyers, driven by demand in real estate, consumer discretionary, information technology, and healthcare.
Derivatives:
Volatility continues to decrease, with SPX 10-day realized volatility at just 6.5.
AMZN traded over 1 million call options for the second consecutive day, with interest in July upside ahead of Prime Day.
The straddle for Friday’s events, including the debate and PCE report, closed at 0.53%.
U.S. Equities Update: Choppy Market
03-07-24
Research
Stocks
United States
Indices Performance:
S&P: +9 bps, closing at 5,482 with MOC: -$800m to SELL.
NDX: +19 bps, closing at 19,789.
R2K: +100 bps, closing at 2,038.
Dow: +9 bps, closing at 39,127.
Market Activity:
Shares Traded: 10.6 billion shares across all US equity exchanges, compared to the YTD daily average of 11.5 billion shares.
Volatility Index (VIX): -247 bps, now at 12.24.
Crude Oil: +104 bps, priced at $81.74.
10-Year Treasury Yields: -4 bps, at 4.28%.
Gold: +128 bps, at $2,327.
DXY: +11 bps, at 105.931.
Bitcoin: +5 bps, at $61,446.
Market Sentiment: The session was characterized by sideways trading as investors processed various macroeconomic data:
Real GDP growth revised up by 0.1 percentage points to +1.4%.
Durable Goods: Slightly above expectations.
Claims: Reported at 233,000 vs. 235,000 consensus.
Investors are positioning ahead of the presidential debate, the upcoming PCE inflation report, and significant liquidity events including month-end, quarter-end, and the Russell Rebalance.
Market Dynamics:
Yields: Remained stable (10YR -4 bps at 4.28%) despite substantial Treasury issuance and record inflows into TLT, suggesting a local floor amid hot CPI prints globally.
US Pensions: Expected to sell $11 billion in US equities for quarter-end, ranking in the 69th percentile over the past three years in absolute terms.
Sector Analysis:
Technology: Debate over whether the recent action in software vs. semiconductors is rotational or technical, with Growth Software up 2.5%. Hedge funds have net sold TMT stocks, led by semiconductors and semiconductor equipment.
Amazon (AMZN): Achieved fresh all-time highs, bolstered by FDX volume beat, its stake in Rivian (RIVN), positive sell-side notes, China expansion, and the upcoming Prime Day.
Healthcare: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) down 22% after lowering guidance due to retail front-end weakness, significant store closures, and a planned stake reduction in VillageMD. This affected its distributor (COR -4%) and retail pharmacy peer (CVS -3.5%).
Retail:
GS Retail Sentiment Basket: Up 128 bps.
Chewy (CHWY): Momentarily spiked 34% following a post by Roaring Kitty, but the rally was short-lived. WOOF also surged on the tweet but was halted soon after.
Trading Desk Activity:
Overall activity level rated 6 out of 10.
Executed flow had a +102 bps buy skew, matching the 30-day average.
Long/Short Funds: -115 bps net sellers, driven by utilities/industrials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary.
Hedge Funds: 1.10% net buyers, driven by demand in real estate, consumer discretionary, information technology, and healthcare.
Derivatives:
Volatility continues to decrease, with SPX 10-day realized volatility at just 6.5.
AMZN traded over 1 million call options for the second consecutive day, with interest in July upside ahead of Prime Day.
The straddle for Friday’s events, including the debate and PCE report, closed at 0.53%.
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