Latvia Economy

Latvia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -2.6 by -70.79% on July 2020 from -8.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -157.78%. Latvia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -2.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.375.Latvia’s inflation cpi icnreased to -0.7 by 133.33% on October 2020 from -0.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s inflation cpi decreased by -126.92%. Latvia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.883333.Latvia’s unemployment rate decreased to 8.4 by -2.33% on May 2020 from 8.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s unemployment rate decreased by -1.18%. Latvia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 8.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.3.

Latvia Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Latvia Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Latvia’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Latvia macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Latvia Macro Model

Latvia News

Latvia Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 6.7 3.1 116.13 294.12 UP UP 90 2022-05-26
inflation cpi 16.9 13 30 550 UP UP 100 2022-06-11
unemployment rate 8.1 7.9 0.0253165 -0.0121951 1.0 -1.0 0.75 2020-07-01
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 101.7 90.7 0.121279 0.287342 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 14739.7 13831.6 6.57 36.28 UP UP 100 2022-04-29
government debt to gdp 44.8 43.3 3.46 21.41 UP UP 0 2022-04-29
external debt 37562 36816 2.03 4.03 UP UP 95 2022-06-14
foreign exchange reserves 4657 4836 -3.7 6.06 Down UP 85 2022-06-14
gold reserves 6.66 6.7 -0.00597015 0.0060423 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2020-07-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -238 -367 -35.15 95.08 Down Down 5 2022-06-14
current account to gdp 3 -0.6 -6 -1.2439 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
central bank balance sheet 25972.1 25597.9 1.46 11.58 UP UP 100 2022-05-23
banks balance sheet 25132.2 24995.5 0.55 4.25 UP UP 75 2022-05-23
money supply m2 18943 18990.6 -0.25 4.78 UP UP 98.33 2022-06-06
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -55283400 4462200 -1338.93 -266.68 UP Down 50 2022-06-22
government revenues 1210020 1338420 -9.59 2.31 UP UP 88.33 2022-06-22
fiscal expenditure 1292580 1285280 0.57 13.49 UP UP 86.67 2022-06-22

Latvia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -2.6 by -70.79% on July 2020 from -8.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -157.78%. Latvia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -2.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.375.Latvia’s inflation cpi icnreased to -0.7 by 133.33% on October 2020 from -0.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s inflation cpi decreased by -126.92%. Latvia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.883333.Latvia’s unemployment rate decreased to 8.4 by -2.33% on May 2020 from 8.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s unemployment rate decreased by -1.18%. Latvia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 8.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.3.Latvia’s business confidence decreased to -1.1 by -76.09% on September 2020 from -4.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s business confidence decreased by -57.69%. Latvia’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.99167.Latvia’s consumer confidence icnreased to -14.4 by 1.41% on August 2020 from -14.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s consumer confidence increased by 144.07%. Latvia’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -14.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.225.

Latvia Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence -0.2 -0.6 -66.67 -92.31 Down UP 51.67 2022-06-11
ESI - Economic Composite 101.7 90.7 0.121279 0.287342 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector 3 -5.6 -1.53571 -1.15957 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -7.2 -19.1 -0.623037 -0.715415 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Construction sector -13.7 -21.1 -0.350711 -0.578462 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Retail sector 1.4 -12.8 -1.10938 -1.05303 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
Services sector -3.8 -18.7 -0.796791 -0.88724 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01

Latvia’s business confidence decreased to -1.1 by -76.09% on September 2020 from -4.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s business confidence decreased by -57.69%. Latvia’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.99167.Latvia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 90.4 by -206.0% on January 2021 from 92.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -969.0%. Latvia’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 90.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 91.325.Latvia’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -5.8 by 175.0% on January 2021 from -5.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Manufacturing sector increased by 6571.0%. Latvia’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -5.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.45833.Latvia’s Consumer sector icnreased to -18.2 by 3582.0% on January 2021 from -13.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Consumer sector increased by 29565.0%. Latvia’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -18.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.1833.Latvia’s Construction sector decreased to -20.0 by -476.0% on January 2021 from -21.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Construction sector increased by 10000.0%. Latvia’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -20.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.0.Latvia’s Retail sector decreased to -6.1 by -37727.0% on January 2021 from 2.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Retail sector decreased by -21091.0%. Latvia’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -6.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.41667.Latvia’s Services sector icnreased to -16.6 by 4188.0% on January 2021 from -11.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Services sector decreased by -42549.0%. Latvia’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -16.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.2917.

Latvia Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -30.6 -20.3 50.74 118.57 Down Down 3.33 2022-06-11
car registrations 3710 2874 29.09 -17.06 Down Down 65 2022-05-04
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -5.4 -32.8 -0.835366 -0.885106 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) 9.2 1.3 6.07692 -2 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 23.3 20.8 0.120192 2.47761 1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 11.2 33.6 -0.666667 -0.822504 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -19.9 -28.3 -0.29682 -0.453297 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) 1.4 1.7 -0.176471 -1.13084 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 21.1 22.4 -0.0580357 0.648438 1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-04-01

Latvia’s consumer confidence icnreased to -14.4 by 1.41% on August 2020 from -14.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s consumer confidence increased by 144.07%. Latvia’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -14.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.225.Latvia’s car registrations icnreased to 3910.0 by 27.11% on May 2020 from 3076.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s car registrations decreased by -6.57%. Latvia’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 3910.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4228.0.Latvia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -27.9 by 4020.0% on January 2021 from -19.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 40727.0%. Latvia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -27.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.5333.Latvia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased to 1.9 by -5250.0% on January 2021 from 4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -6935.0%. Latvia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 1.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.98333.Latvia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased to 7.0 by -5513.0% on January 2021 from 15.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -3204.0%. Latvia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.1417.Latvia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 35.9 by 5815.0% on January 2021 from 22.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 55273.0%. Latvia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 35.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 26.5417.Latvia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -36.5 by 2167.0% on January 2021 from -30.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 4484.0%. Latvia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -36.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27.7917.Latvia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) icnreased to -24.4 by 5641.0% on January 2021 from -15.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) increased by 383.0%. Latvia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -24.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.6333.Latvia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to 9.1 by -3106.0% on January 2021 from 13.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation increased by 4677.0%. Latvia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 9.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.7917.

Latvia Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector 3 -5.6 -1.53571 -1.15957 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -10.7 -20.4 -0.47549 -0.663522 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 22.4 11.7 0.91453 -3.83544 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 3.3 -7.2 -1.45833 -1.22603 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -16 -23.8 -0.327731 -0.538905 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -5.4 -4.3 0.255814 1.84211 -1.0 -1.0 0.866667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 14.2 -0.8 -18.75 -1.4702 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
industrial production 3.7 6.3 -41.27 -82.13 Down Down 56.67 2022-05-26
industrial production mom -0.1 3.5 -102.86 -116.67 Down Down 46.67 2022-05-26
capacity utilization 75.6 75.3 0.4 -1.69 UP Down 86.67 2022-05-04

Latvia’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -5.8 by 175.0% on January 2021 from -5.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Manufacturing sector increased by 6571.0%. Latvia’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -5.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.45833.Latvia’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased to -21.0 by -498.0% on January 2021 from -22.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 995.0%. Latvia’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -21.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.6167.Latvia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) icnreased to 5.4 by 4595.0% on January 2021 from 3.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -41765.0%. Latvia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 5.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.666667.Latvia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) icnreased to -1.8 by 6364.0% on January 2021 from -1.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -1000.0%. Latvia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of -1.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.66667.Latvia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books decreased to -23.6 by -1387.0% on January 2021 from -27.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 631.0%. Latvia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -23.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.5833.Latvia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) icnreased to -3.8 by 53333.0% on January 2021 from -0.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -41667.0%. Latvia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of -3.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.93333.Latvia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to -0.2 by -10454.0% on January 2021 from 4.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -10260.0%. Latvia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.35.Latvia’s industrial production decreased to -1.2 by -57.14% on October 2020 from -2.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s industrial production decreased by -116.67%. Latvia’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.40833.Latvia’s industrial production mom decreased to -0.1 by -120.0% on October 2020 from 0.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s industrial production mom decreased by -95.24%. Latvia’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of -0.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.0166667.Latvia’s capacity utilization icnreased to 72.7 by 2.68% on August 2020 from 70.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s capacity utilization decreased by -2.02%. Latvia’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 72.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 74.8333.

 

Latvia Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector -3.8 -18.7 -0.796791 -0.88724 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 8.5 -9.1 -1.93407 -1.18847 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 4 -3.4 -2.17647 -1.23952 1.0 1.0 0.35 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) -9.5 -23.2 -0.590517 -0.63035 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) -10.5 -23.6 -0.555085 -0.654605 1.0 1.0 0.35 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) -6.1 -13.5 -0.548148 -0.668478 1.0 1.0 0.633333 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 4.8 -8.7 -1.55172 -1.14076 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01

Latvia’s Services sector icnreased to -16.6 by 4188.0% on January 2021 from -11.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Services sector decreased by -42549.0%. Latvia’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -16.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.2917.Latvia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -19.5 by 6957.0% on January 2021 from -11.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -36712.0%. Latvia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -19.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.71667.Latvia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -6.3 by 4000.0% on January 2021 from -4.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -25366.0%. Latvia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -6.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.75833.Latvia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -16.2 by 3500.0% on January 2021 from -12.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -46818.0%. Latvia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -16.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.8917.Latvia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -14.2 by 2137.0% on January 2021 from -11.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -48378.0%. Latvia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -14.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.3083.Latvia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) icnreased to -10.6 by 3086.0% on January 2021 from -8.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -127778.0%. Latvia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.925.Latvia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) icnreased to -12.5 by 6892.0% on January 2021 from -7.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -50323.0%. Latvia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -12.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.13333.

Latvia Retail Sector

 

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector 1.4 -12.8 -1.10938 -1.05303 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) 6.2 -28.7 -1.21603 -1.07702 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 23 13 0.769231 -4.15068 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) -12.5 -25.7 -0.513619 -0.55036 1.0 1.0 0.35 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels -2.8 -1.8 0.555556 1.8 -1.0 -1.0 0.883333 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) 14 -14.4 -1.97222 -1.27888 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) 2.4 -11.4 -1.21053 -1.06061 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
retail sales 4.2 4.5 -6.67 -20.75 Down Down 56.67 2022-06-28
retail sales MoM -1.1 -4.4 -75 -21.43 Down UP 28.33 2022-06-28

Latvia’s Retail sector decreased to -6.1 by -37727.0% on January 2021 from 2.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Retail sector decreased by -21091.0%. Latvia’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -6.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.41667.Latvia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -15.6 by 7143.0% on January 2021 from -9.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -46279.0%. Latvia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -15.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.2083.Latvia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 0.8 by -7838.0% on January 2021 from 3.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -8769.0%. Latvia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 0.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.3.Latvia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -2.9 by -15000.0% on January 2021 from 5.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -17632.0%. Latvia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -2.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.025.Latvia’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased to -1.5 by -1176.0% on January 2021 from -1.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Retail – Stock Levels increased by 40000.0%. Latvia’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of -1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.633333.Latvia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -16.9 by 143636.0% on January 2021 from -1.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -23101.0%. Latvia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -16.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.81667.Latvia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -9.6 by -490000.0% on January 2021 from 0.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -26552.0%. Latvia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -9.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.8.Latvia’s retail sales decreased to 1.4 by -78.12% on November 2020 from 6.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s retail sales decreased by -17.65%. Latvia’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 1.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.2.Latvia’s retail sales MoM decreased to -1.9 by -290.0% on November 2020 from 1.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s retail sales MoM decreased by -733.33%. Latvia’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of -1.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.433333.

Latvia Construction Sector

 

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector -13.7 -21.1 -0.350711 -0.578462 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -29.3 -35 -0.162857 -0.11747 1.0 1.0 0.433333 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 28.5 14.2 1.00704 -6.7 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 2 -7.1 -1.28169 -1.0627 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) -14.2 -25.4 -0.440945 -0.460076 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 21 20.7 0.0144928 -0.156627 -1.0 -1.0 0.316667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 34.8 37 -0.0594595 0.0545455 -1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 28.8 28.9 -0.00346021 0.78882 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 13.1 12.8 0.0234375 0.0564516 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 3.9 3.2 0.21875 0.625 1.0 1.0 0.658333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 12.7 18.1 -0.298343 -0.569492 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 11.9 12 -0.00833333 -0.0403226 -1.0 -1.0 0.6 2021-04-01

Latvia’s Construction sector decreased to -20.0 by -476.0% on January 2021 from -21.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Construction sector increased by 10000.0%. Latvia’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -20.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.0.Latvia’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased to -29.0 by -1714.0% on January 2021 from -35.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 4500.0%. Latvia’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -29.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -29.4167.Latvia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to -2.0 by -12857.0% on January 2021 from 7.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -11053.0%. Latvia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.25.Latvia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months icnreased to -12.0 by 5000.0% on January 2021 from -8.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months increased by 50000.0%. Latvia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -12.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -11.25.Latvia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased to -18.0 by -1000.0% on January 2021 from -20.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) increased by 50000.0%. Latvia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -18.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.4167.Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased to 29.0 by -333.0% on January 2021 from 30.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -1944.0%. Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 29.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 29.75.Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) decreased to 32.0 by -1111.0% on January 2021 from 36.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 1429.0%. Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 32.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 33.75.Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased to 14.0 by -1765.0% on January 2021 from 17.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -3913.0%. Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 14.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18.25.Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) icnreased to 11.0 by 3750.0% on January 2021 from 8.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -3889.0%. Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.8333.Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) icnreased to 4.0 by 3333.0% on January 2021 from 3.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) increased by 30000.0%. Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.41667.Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) icnreased to 15.0 by 714.0% on January 2021 from 14.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 5000.0%. Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 15.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14.0.Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 16.0 by 667.0% on January 2021 from 15.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 30000.0%. Latvia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 16.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.0.

Latvia GDP

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 6304700 7503020 -15.97 17.18 Down UP 86.67 2022-05-26
gdp growth annual 6.7 3.1 116.13 294.12 UP UP 90 2022-05-26
gdp 34.1172 34.3139 -0.00573237 0.104188 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
gdp growth 3.6 -0.2 -1900 414.29 UP UP 96.67 2022-05-26

Latvia’s Real GDP icnreased to 7029630.0 by 11.74% on May 2020 from 6290950.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s Real GDP increased by 17.87%. Latvia’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 7029630.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6274570.0.Latvia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -2.6 by -70.79% on July 2020 from -8.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -157.78%. Latvia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -2.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.375.Latvia’s gdp decreased to 34.1172 by -0.57% on January 2019 from 34.3139 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s gdp increased by 10.42%. Latvia’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 34.1172 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 29.797.Latvia’s gdp growth decreased to 7.1 by -200.0% on July 2020 from -7.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s gdp growth increased by 1083.33%. Latvia’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 7.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.333333.

Latvia inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 16.9 13 30 550 UP UP 100 2022-06-11
core inflation rate 7.1 6 18.33 317.65 UP UP 100 2022-06-22
consumer price index cpi 130.3 125.4 3.91 16.86 UP UP 100 2022-06-14
Producer Price Index 148.5 143 3.85 31.53 UP UP 100 2022-06-22
PPI Index 31.5 29.3 7.51 279.52 UP UP 100 2022-06-22

Latvia’s inflation cpi icnreased to -0.7 by 133.33% on October 2020 from -0.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s inflation cpi decreased by -126.92%. Latvia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.883333.Latvia’s core inflation rate decreased to 0.6 by -25.0% on November 2020 from 0.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s core inflation rate decreased by -70.0%. Latvia’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.991667.Latvia’s consumer price index cpi decreased to 108.3 by -0.28% on November 2020 from 108.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s consumer price index cpi decreased by -0.73%. Latvia’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 108.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 108.933.Latvia’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 105.0 by 0.38% on November 2020 from 104.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s Producer Price Index decreased by -0.85%. Latvia’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 105.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 104.75.Latvia’s PPI Index decreased to -0.9 by -30.77% on November 2020 from -1.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s PPI Index increased by 125.0%. Latvia’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -0.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.93333.

Latvia Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -7.3 -4.5 62.22 -23.96 Down UP 0 2022-04-29
Government budget -55283400 4462200 -1338.93 -266.68 UP Down 50 2022-06-22
government revenues 1210020 1338420 -9.59 2.31 UP UP 88.33 2022-06-22
fiscal expenditure 1292580 1285280 0.57 13.49 UP UP 86.67 2022-06-22

Latvia’s Government budget decreased to -107323000.0 by -54.8% on November 2020 from -237419000.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s Government budget decreased by -180.36%. Latvia’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -107323000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -83020500.0.Latvia’s government revenues decreased to 968119.0 by -1.42% on November 2020 from 982052.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s government revenues increased by 4.73%. Latvia’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 968119.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1024450.0.Latvia’s fiscal expenditure decreased to 1099520.0 by -10.01% on November 2020 from 1221840.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s fiscal expenditure increased by 3.38%. Latvia’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 1099520.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1104760.0.

Latvia Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
central bank balance sheet 25972.1 25597.9 1.46 11.58 UP UP 100 2022-05-23
banks balance sheet 25132.2 24995.5 0.55 4.25 UP UP 75 2022-05-23
money supply m0 11236 11335.8 -0.88 2.13 UP UP 90 2022-06-22
money supply m1 17589.3 17649.5 -0.34 7.34 UP UP 98.33 2022-06-06
money supply m2 18943 18990.6 -0.25 4.78 UP UP 98.33 2022-06-06

Latvia’s central bank balance sheet icnreased to 21462.7 by 7.7% on June 2020 from 19927.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s central bank balance sheet increased by 17.18%. Latvia’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 21462.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19133.4.Latvia’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 23389.6 by 1.51% on September 2020 from 23042.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s banks balance sheet increased by 4.07%. Latvia’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 23389.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 22422.1.Latvia’s money supply m2 icnreased to 16888.9 by 1.85% on October 2020 from 16581.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s money supply m2 increased by 12.95%. Latvia’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 16888.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15965.0.

Latvia Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 102.9 92.7 0.110032 0.463727 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 8.1 7.9 0.0253165 -0.0121951 1.0 -1.0 0.75 2020-07-01
youth unemployment rate 10.7 9.8 9.18 -32.28 Down Down 11.67 2022-06-06
long term unemployment rate 2.4 2.1 0.142857 -0.25 -1.0 -1.0 0.616667 2021-01-01

Latvia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 89.8 by -507.0% on January 2021 from 94.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Latvia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -1153.0%. Latvia’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 89.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 91.4083.Latvia’s unemployment rate decreased to 8.4 by -2.33% on May 2020 from 8.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s unemployment rate decreased by -1.18%. Latvia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 8.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.3.Latvia’s youth unemployment rate icnreased to 13.9 by 3.73% on October 2020 from 13.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s youth unemployment rate increased by 29.91%. Latvia’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 13.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14.3583.Latvia’s long term unemployment rate icnreased to 2.2 by 4.76% on July 2020 from 2.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -37.14%. Latvia’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 2.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.68333.

Latvia Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -238 -367 -35.15 95.08 Down Down 5 2022-06-14
current account to gdp 3 -0.6 -6 -1.2439 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 1622.2 1753.9 -7.51 30.22 UP UP 96.67 2022-06-11
imports 2159.2 2195.35 -1.65 47.26 UP UP 98.33 2022-06-11
balance of trade -537 -441.46 21.64 99.03 Down Down 1.67 2022-06-11

Latvia’s current account icnreased to 230.0 by 206.67% on October 2020 from 75.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s current account increased by 114.95%. Latvia’s current account trend is down since the current value of 230.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.0833.Latvia’s current account to gdp decreased to -0.5 by -50.0% on January 2019 from -1.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s current account to gdp decreased by -97.58%. Latvia’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of -0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.10833.Latvia’s exports icnreased to 1311.45 by 2.85% on October 2020 from 1275.15 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s exports increased by 7.69%. Latvia’s exports trend is down since the current value of 1311.45 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1077.5.Latvia’s imports decreased to 1387.98 by -2.79% on October 2020 from 1427.85 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s imports increased by 0.61%. Latvia’s imports trend is down since the current value of 1387.98 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1229.05.Latvia’s balance of trade decreased to -76.5 by -49.93% on October 2020 from -152.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s balance of trade decreased by -53.61%. Latvia’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -76.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -160.367.

Latvia Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 4657 4836 -3.7 6.06 Down UP 85 2022-06-14
gold reserves 6.66 6.7 -0.00597015 0.0060423 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2020-07-01

Latvia’s foreign exchange reserves decreased to 4228.0 by -1.83% on November 2020 from 4307.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 2.8%. Latvia’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 4228.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4227.5.Latvia’s gold reserves decreased to 6.66 by -0.6% on July 2020 from 6.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s gold reserves increased by 0.6%. Latvia’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 6.66 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.62667.Latvia’s government debt icnreased to 12755.9 by 12.96% on April 2020 from 11292.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s government debt increased by 22.17%. Latvia’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 12755.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11008.8.Latvia’s government debt to gdp decreased to 36.9 by -0.81% on January 2019 from 37.2 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s government debt to gdp increased by 334.12%. Latvia’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 36.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 38.6167.Latvia’s external debt icnreased to 36983.0 by 1.48% on May 2020 from 36444.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s external debt decreased by -1.52%. Latvia’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 36983.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 35952.5.

Latvia Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 14739.7 13831.6 6.57 36.28 UP UP 100 2022-04-29
government debt to gdp 44.8 43.3 3.46 21.41 UP UP 0 2022-04-29
external debt 37562 36816 2.03 4.03 UP UP 95 2022-06-14

Latvia’s government debt icnreased to 12755.9 by 12.96% on April 2020 from 11292.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s government debt increased by 22.17%. Latvia’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 12755.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11008.8.Latvia’s government debt to gdp decreased to 36.9 by -0.81% on January 2019 from 37.2 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s government debt to gdp increased by 334.12%. Latvia’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 36.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 38.6167.Latvia’s external debt icnreased to 36983.0 by 1.48% on May 2020 from 36444.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s external debt decreased by -1.52%. Latvia’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 36983.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 35952.5.

Latvia Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 0.17 0.17 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.508333 2021-06-02
bank lending rate 3.79 3.69 0.0271003 0.0985507 -1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-03-28
loans to private sector 4286.8 4242.9 1.03 -0.61 Down Down 8.33 2022-05-26

Latvia’s interbank rate Latvia’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of 0.17 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.17.Latvia’s bank lending rate icnreased to 4.36 by 18.48% on May 2020 from 3.68 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s bank lending rate increased by 18.8%. Latvia’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 4.36 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.69917.Latvia’s loans to private sector decreased to 4430.6 by -0.59% on October 2020 from 4457.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Latvia’s loans to private sector decreased by -11.16%. Latvia’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 4430.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4572.93.

Latvia macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Latvia economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Latvia Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Latvia Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Latvia’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
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