Luxembourg Economy

Luxembourg’s gdp growth annual decreased to 0.5 by -106.41% on May 2020 from -7.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s gdp growth annual decreased by -70.59%. Luxembourg’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.45833.Luxembourg’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.4 by -42.86% on October 2020 from 0.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s inflation cpi decreased by -66.67%. Luxembourg’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.966667.Luxembourg’s unemployment rate decreased to 6.3 by -1.56% on September 2020 from 6.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s unemployment rate increased by 18.87%. Luxembourg’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 6.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.10833.

Luxembourg Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Luxembourg Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Luxembourg’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Luxembourg macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Luxembourg Macro Model

 

Luxembourg News

Luxembourg Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 4.9 1.7 1.88235 0.0208333 1.0 1.0 0.65 2021-01-01
inflation cpi 2.2 2.5 -0.12 1.75 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 5.7 5.8 -0.0172414 -0.173913 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-06-30
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 116.5 105.9 0.100094 0.528871 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 24.9 22 0.131818 0.649007 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 3381920 3274140 0.0329186 -0.0725623 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves 949.66 1002.7 -0.0528972 -0.0467941 -1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-06-30
gold reserves 2.24 2.27 -0.0132159 0.0181818 1.0 1.0 1 2021-01-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 210.327 411.85 -0.489312 -0.842357 -1.0 -1.0 0.25 2020-07-01
current account to gdp 4.5 4.8 -0.0625 -0.536082 -1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
central bank balance sheet 328897 327652 0.00379976 0.350451 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
banks balance sheet 1268710 1240180 0.0230047 -0.00373 1.0 -1.0 0.183333 2021-03-31
money supply m2 362.1 356.9 0.0145699 0.133333 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget 1542.7 1841.4 -0.162214 -0.000453544 1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-01
government revenues 28353.5 27202.1 0.0423276 0.817637 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-01
fiscal expenditure 26810.7 25360.8 0.0571709 0.907461 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-01

 

Luxembourg’s gdp growth annual decreased to 0.5 by -106.41% on May 2020 from -7.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s gdp growth annual decreased by -70.59%. Luxembourg’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.45833.Luxembourg’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.4 by -42.86% on October 2020 from 0.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s inflation cpi decreased by -66.67%. Luxembourg’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.966667.Luxembourg’s unemployment rate decreased to 6.3 by -1.56% on September 2020 from 6.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s unemployment rate increased by 18.87%. Luxembourg’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 6.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.10833.Luxembourg’s building permits decreased to 193.0 by -5.39% on June 2020 from 204.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s building permits increased by 6.63%. Luxembourg’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 193.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 173.25.Luxembourg’s business confidence decreased to 98.6 by -6.36% on November 2020 from 105.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s business confidence decreased by -2.38%. Luxembourg’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 98.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 96.7.Luxembourg’s consumer confidence icnreased to -15.4 by 49.51% on November 2020 from -10.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s consumer confidence increased by 470.37%. Luxembourg’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -15.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.8.

Luxembourg Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 121.9 120.2 0.0141431 0.330786 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
ESI - Economic Composite 116.5 105.9 0.100094 0.528871 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector 1.8 -8.3 -1.21687 -1.03442 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -0.6 -8.4 -0.928571 -0.969543 1.0 1.0 0.4 2021-04-01
Construction sector 20.5 18.3 0.120219 -6.54054 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Retail sector
Services sector

Luxembourg’s business confidence decreased to 98.6 by -6.36% on November 2020 from 105.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s business confidence decreased by -2.38%. Luxembourg’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 98.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 96.7.Luxembourg’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 98.6 by -636.0% on January 2021 from 105.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -238.0%. Luxembourg’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 98.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 96.7.Luxembourg’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -18.6 by 12410.0% on January 2021 from -8.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -1878.0%. Luxembourg’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -18.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.2167.Luxembourg’s Consumer sector icnreased to -15.4 by 4951.0% on January 2021 from -10.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Consumer sector increased by 47037.0%. Luxembourg’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -15.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.8.Luxembourg’s Construction sector decreased to 8.0 by -2000.0% on January 2021 from 10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Construction sector decreased by -3333.0%. Luxembourg’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of 8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.16667.Luxembourg’s Retail sector Luxembourg’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of nan is lower than the 12 month moving average of nan.Luxembourg’s Services sector Luxembourg’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of nan is lower than the 12 month moving average of nan.

Luxembourg Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence 1.1 -1.6 -1.6875 -1.1068 1.0 1.0 0.333333 2021-06-30
car registrations 4471 4033 0.108604 -0.0380809 1.0 -1.0 0.316667 2021-06-30
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) 0.2 -8.7 -1.02299 -1.00423 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) 5.9 -2.9 -3.03448 -1.48361 1.0 1.0 0.266667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 25.4 22.9 0.10917 -0.365 -1.0 -1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 33.8 47.3 -0.285412 -0.463492 -1.0 -1.0 0.633333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -6.9 -16.1 -0.571429 -0.557692 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) 53.8 49.9 0.0781563 0.132632 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 47.1 45.9 0.0261438 0.121429 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-04-01
retail sales yoy 0.7 1.3 -0.461538 -0.87037 1.0 -1.0 0.45 2021-02-28

Luxembourg’s consumer confidence icnreased to -15.4 by 49.51% on November 2020 from -10.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s consumer confidence increased by 470.37%. Luxembourg’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -15.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.8.Luxembourg’s car registrations decreased to 3808.0 by -4.32% on November 2020 from 3980.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s car registrations decreased by -3.64%. Luxembourg’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 3808.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3746.75.Luxembourg’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -39.2 by 6681.0% on January 2021 from -23.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 382000.0%. Luxembourg’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -39.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.5333.Luxembourg’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -3.5 by 4000.0% on January 2021 from -2.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -16863.0%. Luxembourg’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -3.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.925.Luxembourg’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased to 21.1 by -1172.0% on January 2021 from 23.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -2008.0%. Luxembourg’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 21.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 29.8583.Luxembourg’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 57.5 by 35.0% on January 2021 from 57.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 19188.0%. Luxembourg’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 57.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.3.Luxembourg’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -18.5 by 4919.0% on January 2021 from -12.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 4919.0%. Luxembourg’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -18.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.825.Luxembourg’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased to 47.3 by -367.0% on January 2021 from 49.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) increased by 1884.0%. Luxembourg’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 47.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 45.9417.Luxembourg’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to 42.0 by -667.0% on January 2021 from 45.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Consumer – Households Financial situation increased by 742.0%. Luxembourg’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 42.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 42.75.Luxembourg’s retail sales yoy decreased to 7.3 by -10.98% on September 2020 from 8.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s retail sales yoy increased by 55.32%. Luxembourg’s retail sales yoy trend is down since the current value of 7.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.741667.

Luxembourg Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector 1.8 -8.3 -1.21687 -1.03442 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -22.4 -36.3 -0.38292 -0.539095 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 38.1 35.9 0.0612813 -3.80147 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 39.1 26.2 0.492366 -1.65714 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -28.7 -39.5 -0.273418 -0.415479 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -13.9 -8.1 0.716049 -1.40058 -1.0 -1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 13.8 3.4 3.05882 -1.1875 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-04-01
industrial production -3.4 0.2 -18 -0.0810811 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-02-28
capacity utilization 88.2 75.6 0.166667 0.0756098 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2020-10-01

Luxembourg’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -18.6 by 12410.0% on January 2021 from -8.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -1878.0%. Luxembourg’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -18.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.2167.Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Order Books icnreased to -47.5 by 1585.0% on January 2021 from -41.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 440.0%. Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -47.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -47.075.Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased to 1.4 by -12917.0% on January 2021 from -4.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -10547.0%. Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 1.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.2.Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to 10.7 by -36750.0% on January 2021 from -4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -12876.0%. Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of 10.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -29.3917.Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books icnreased to -50.4 by 1748.0% on January 2021 from -42.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 3333.0%. Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -50.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -47.7583.Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) icnreased to -5.0 by 156667.0% on January 2021 from -0.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -13165.0%. Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of -5.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.6583.Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to -13.4 by -18375.0% on January 2021 from 16.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) increased by 8108.0%. Luxembourg’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -13.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.85833.Luxembourg’s industrial production icnreased to -11.4 by 28.09% on August 2020 from -8.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s industrial production increased by 2750.0%. Luxembourg’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -11.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.05.Luxembourg’s capacity utilization decreased to 75.3 by -1.31% on August 2020 from 76.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s capacity utilization decreased by -7.15%. Luxembourg’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 75.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 77.7917.

Luxembourg Services activity

Luxembourg Retail Sector

 

Luxembourg’s Retail sector Luxembourg’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of nan is lower than the 12 month moving average of nan.Luxembourg’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) Luxembourg’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of nan is lower than the 12 month moving average of nan.Luxembourg’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) Luxembourg’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of nan is lower than the 12 month moving average of nan.Luxembourg’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) Luxembourg’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of nan is lower than the 12 month moving average of nan.Luxembourg’s Retail – Stock Levels Luxembourg’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of nan is lower than the 12 month moving average of nan.Luxembourg’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) Luxembourg’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of nan is lower than the 12 month moving average of nan.Luxembourg’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) Luxembourg’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of nan is lower than the 12 month moving average of nan.Luxembourg’s retail sales MoM decreased to 0.3 by -96.3% on July 2020 from 8.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s retail sales MoM decreased by -86.36%. Luxembourg’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of 0.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.6.

Luxembourg Construction Sector

 

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector 20.5 18.3 0.120219 -6.54054 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books 17.5 14.2 0.232394 2.80435 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 24.2 12.1 1 2.78125 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 23.5 22.4 0.0491071 -2.97479 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-04-01
building permits 193 212 -0.0896226 0.128655 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2020-12-31
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) 8.1 -11.9 -1.68067 -1.1796 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 15.2 12 0.266667 0.831325 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 14.3 19.4 -0.262887 0.554348 -1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 14 11.6 0.206897 3 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 43.9 39.1 0.122762 0.393651 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 1.8 1.5 0.2 -0.307692 1.0 -1.0 0.433333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 24.1 18.2 0.324176 1.93902 -1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 2.2 5.9 -0.627119 -0.872093 -1.0 -1.0 0.05 2021-04-01

Luxembourg’s Construction sector decreased to 8.0 by -2000.0% on January 2021 from 10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Construction sector decreased by -3333.0%. Luxembourg’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of 8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.16667.Luxembourg’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased to 6.0 by -1429.0% on January 2021 from 7.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased by -4545.0%. Luxembourg’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of 6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.41667.Luxembourg’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to 4.0 by -15714.0% on January 2021 from -7.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -15000.0%. Luxembourg’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.16667.Luxembourg’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to 9.0 by -3571.0% on January 2021 from 14.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -3077.0%. Luxembourg’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.1667.Luxembourg’s building permits decreased to 193.0 by -5.39% on June 2020 from 204.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s building permits increased by 6.63%. Luxembourg’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 193.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 173.25.Luxembourg’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased to -14.0 by -1250.0% on January 2021 from -16.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -45000.0%. Luxembourg’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -14.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.0833.Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) icnreased to 13.0 by 6250.0% on January 2021 from 8.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -6486.0%. Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 13.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 16.75.Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) decreased to 18.0 by -1818.0% on January 2021 from 22.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 20000.0%. Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 18.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.75.Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased to 6.0 by -1429.0% on January 2021 from 7.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) increased by 2000.0%. Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.75.Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) icnreased to 30.0 by 1111.0% on January 2021 from 27.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) increased by 4286.0%. Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 30.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 30.75.Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) icnreased to 3.0 by 5000.0% on January 2021 from 2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) increased by 20000.0%. Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.0.Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased to 26.0 by -1613.0% on January 2021 from 31.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased by -2571.0%. Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 26.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 30.5.Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 7.0 by 7500.0% on January 2021 from 4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 25000.0%. Luxembourg’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.83333.

Luxembourg GDP

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 13163.4 11983.8 0.0984329 0.0610939 1.0 1.0 0.283333 2020-09-30
gdp growth annual 4.9 1.7 1.88235 0.0208333 1.0 1.0 0.65 2021-01-01
gdp 73.26 71.1 0.0303797 0.311728 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
gdp growth 1.4 1.9 -0.263158 -0.176471 1.0 -1.0 0.65 2021-01-01

Luxembourg’s Real GDP decreased to 12015.8 by -5.67% on April 2020 from 12738.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Real GDP decreased by -1.55%. Luxembourg’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 12015.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12705.6.Luxembourg’s gdp growth annual decreased to 0.5 by -106.41% on May 2020 from -7.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s gdp growth annual decreased by -70.59%. Luxembourg’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.45833.Luxembourg’s gdp icnreased to 71.1 by 0.25% on January 2019 from 70.92 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s gdp increased by 39.71%. Luxembourg’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 71.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 60.7983.Luxembourg’s gdp growth decreased to 9.8 by -232.43% on July 2020 from -7.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s gdp growth increased by 3166.67%. Luxembourg’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 9.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.7.

Luxembourg inflation

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 2.2 2.5 -0.12 1.75 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 1.3 1.2 0.0833333 0.0833333 1.0 1.0 0.566667 2021-05-31
consumer price index cpi 108.68 108.5 0.00165899 0.0220049 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
Producer Price Index 108.88 107.59 0.01199 0.0199532 1.0 1.0 0.633333 2021-05-31
PPI Index 2 2.5 -0.2 -11 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-05-31

Luxembourg’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.4 by -42.86% on October 2020 from 0.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s inflation cpi decreased by -66.67%. Luxembourg’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.966667.Luxembourg’s core inflation rate decreased to 0.9 by -25.0% on October 2020 from 1.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s core inflation rate decreased by -47.06%. Luxembourg’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 0.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.34167.Luxembourg’s consumer price index cpi decreased to 106.37 by -0.21% on November 2020 from 106.59 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s consumer price index cpi increased by 0.42%. Luxembourg’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 106.37 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 106.207.Luxembourg’s Producer Price Index decreased to 98.39 by -1.94% on November 2020 from 100.34 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Producer Price Index decreased by -5.03%. Luxembourg’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 98.39 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 103.253.Luxembourg’s PPI Index icnreased to -4.4 by 15.79% on October 2020 from -3.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s PPI Index increased by 22.22%. Luxembourg’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -4.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.34167.

Luxembourg Government Policy

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -4.1 2.4 -2.70833 -2.20588 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget 1542.7 1841.4 -0.162214 -0.000453544 1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-01
government revenues 28353.5 27202.1 0.0423276 0.817637 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-01
fiscal expenditure 26810.7 25360.8 0.0571709 0.907461 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-01

Luxembourg’s Government budget icnreased to 1600.0 by 108.2% on January 2018 from 768.5 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s Government budget increased by 144.46%. Luxembourg’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of 1600.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 654.758.Luxembourg’s government revenues icnreased to 26788.3 by 9.23% on January 2018 from 24525.6 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s government revenues increased by 90.49%. Luxembourg’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 26788.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20259.2.Luxembourg’s fiscal expenditure icnreased to 25188.3 by 6.02% on January 2018 from 23757.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s fiscal expenditure increased by 87.85%. Luxembourg’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 25188.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19604.4.

Luxembourg Monetary Policy

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 0.05 0.05 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2016-03-09
central bank balance sheet 328897 327652 0.00379976 0.350451 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
banks balance sheet 1268710 1240180 0.0230047 -0.00373 1.0 -1.0 0.183333 2021-03-31
money supply m0 4.4 4.3 0.0232558 0.157895 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-05-31
money supply m1 332.7 328.1 0.0140201 0.161257 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
money supply m2 362.1 356.9 0.0145699 0.133333 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
money supply m3 456.9 447.3 0.0214621 0.129263 1.0 1.0 0.833333 2021-05-31

Luxembourg’s interest rate Luxembourg’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.05 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.05.Luxembourg’s central bank balance sheet icnreased to 261881.0 by 2.29% on October 2020 from 256022.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s central bank balance sheet increased by 17.66%. Luxembourg’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 261881.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 241973.0.Luxembourg’s banks balance sheet decreased to 1262700.0 by -0.76% on September 2020 from 1272330.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s banks balance sheet increased by 9.01%. Luxembourg’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 1262700.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1236250.0.Luxembourg’s money supply m2 icnreased to 322.0 by 3.97% on October 2020 from 309.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s money supply m2 increased by 4.34%. Luxembourg’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 322.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 317.875.

Luxembourg Employment

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite
unemployment rate 5.7 5.8 -0.0172414 -0.173913 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-06-30
youth unemployment rate 19.9 21.7 -0.0829493 -0.225681 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-05-31

Luxembourg’s EEI – Employment Composite Luxembourg’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of nan is lower than the 12 month moving average of nan.Luxembourg’s unemployment rate decreased to 6.3 by -1.56% on September 2020 from 6.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s unemployment rate increased by 18.87%. Luxembourg’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 6.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.10833.Luxembourg’s youth unemployment rate decreased to 21.6 by -4.0% on October 2020 from 22.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s youth unemployment rate increased by 22.73%. Luxembourg’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 21.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 21.675.

Luxembourg Trade & Capital Flows

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 210.327 411.85 -0.489312 -0.842357 -1.0 -1.0 0.25 2020-07-01
current account to gdp 4.5 4.8 -0.0625 -0.536082 -1.0 -1.0 0 2019-01-31
exports 1.14 1.23 -0.0731707 0.461538 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
imports 1.65 1.82 -0.0934066 0.473214 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
balance of trade -0.51 -0.6 -0.15 0.457143 1.0 -1.0 0.933333 2021-04-30

Luxembourg’s current account decreased to 545.6 by -42.91% on April 2020 from 955.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s current account decreased by -124.56%. Luxembourg’s current account trend is down since the current value of 545.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 937.9.Luxembourg’s current account to gdp decreased to 4.5 by -6.25% on January 2019 from 4.8 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s current account to gdp decreased by -53.61%. Luxembourg’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of 4.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.675.Luxembourg’s exports On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s exports decreased by -9.09%. Luxembourg’s exports trend is down since the current value of 1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.991667.Luxembourg’s imports icnreased to 1.63 by 4.49% on October 2020 from 1.56 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s imports decreased by -9.44%. Luxembourg’s imports trend is down since the current value of 1.63 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.52833.Luxembourg’s balance of trade icnreased to -0.53 by 15.22% on October 2020 from -0.46 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s balance of trade decreased by -10.17%. Luxembourg’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -0.53 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.535.

Luxembourg Reserves

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 949.66 1002.7 -0.0528972 -0.0467941 -1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-06-30
gold reserves 2.24 2.27 -0.0132159 0.0181818 1.0 1.0 1 2021-01-01

Luxembourg’s foreign exchange reserves decreased to 966.15 by -1.43% on November 2020 from 980.16 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s foreign exchange reserves decreased by -0.77%. Luxembourg’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 966.15 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 972.617.Luxembourg’s gold reserves icnreased to 2.24 by 1.82% on July 2020 from 2.2 in the previous Quarterly. Luxembourg’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 2.24 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.21333.Luxembourg’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 22.1 by 5.24% on January 2019 from 21.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s government debt to gdp increased by 183.33%. Luxembourg’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 22.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.45.Luxembourg’s external debt decreased to 3315100.0 by -6.71% on May 2020 from 3553640.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s external debt decreased by -11.43%. Luxembourg’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 3315100.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3638310.0.

 

Luxembourg Debt

 

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt to gdp 24.9 22 0.131818 0.649007 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 3381920 3274140 0.0329186 -0.0725623 -1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-01

Luxembourg’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 22.1 by 5.24% on January 2019 from 21.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s government debt to gdp increased by 183.33%. Luxembourg’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 22.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.45.Luxembourg’s external debt decreased to 3315100.0 by -6.71% on May 2020 from 3553640.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s external debt decreased by -11.43%. Luxembourg’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 3315100.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3638310.0.

Luxembourg Banking activity

 

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
bank lending rate 1.41 1.37 0.0291971 -0.160714 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-05-31
loans to private sector 28899 28473 0.0149615 -0.0206385 1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-05-31

Luxembourg’s bank lending rate decreased to 1.51 by -1.95% on October 2020 from 1.54 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s bank lending rate decreased by -7.36%. Luxembourg’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 1.51 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.59333.Luxembourg’s loans to private sector icnreased to 28659.0 by 0.09% on October 2020 from 28632.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Luxembourg’s loans to private sector increased by 2.77%. Luxembourg’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 28659.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 28876.8.

 

Luxembourg macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Luxembourg economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Luxembourg Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Luxembourg Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Luxembourg’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
Read more on how to analyze a country’s macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world.Click here to learn more.

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