Malta Economy

Malta’s gdp growth annual decreased to -9.9 by -38.51% on July 2020 from -16.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s gdp growth annual decreased by -223.75%. Malta’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -9.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.88333.Malta’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.2 by -66.67% on November 2020 from 0.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s inflation cpi decreased by -84.62%. Malta’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.891667.Malta’s unemployment rate icnreased to 4.6 by 4.55% on May 2020 from 4.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s unemployment rate increased by 15.0%. Malta’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 4.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.74167.

Malta Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Malta Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Malta’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Malta macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Malta Macro Model

 

Malta News

Malta Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 8.9 8.1 10 93 100.0 100.0 80 2022-06-30
inflation cpi 6.8 6.1 11 2167 100.0 100.0 92 2022-07-31
unemployment rate 3.2 3.6 -11 -11 -100.0 -100.0 52 2021-12-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 94.4 97.8 -3 -18 -100.0 -100.0 10 2022-09-30
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 8599.1 8655.2 -1 47 100.0 100.0 98 2022-06-30
government debt to gdp 57 53.4 7 -16 100.0 -100.0 0 2021-01-31
external debt 94228.8 94045.7 0 2 100.0 100.0 25 2022-06-30
gold reserves 0.09 0.16 -44 0 -100.0 -100.0 37 2021-09-30
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -255880 -16988 1406 -171 -100.0 -100.0 22 2022-06-30
current account to gdp -4.9 -2.9 69 -45 -100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
money supply m2 26013.7 25811.1 0.78 7.69 100.0 100.0 100 2022-09-30
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget 108854 155900 -30 -171 100.0 100.0 27 2022-09-30
government revenues 411496 576513 -29 1 -100.0 100.0 49 2022-09-30
fiscal expenditure 520349 420613 24 -7 100.0 -100.0 15 2022-09-30

Malta’s gdp growth annual decreased to -9.9 by -38.51% on July 2020 from -16.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s gdp growth annual decreased by -223.75%. Malta’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -9.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.88333.Malta’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.2 by -66.67% on November 2020 from 0.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s inflation cpi decreased by -84.62%. Malta’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.891667.Malta’s unemployment rate icnreased to 4.6 by 4.55% on May 2020 from 4.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s unemployment rate increased by 15.0%. Malta’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 4.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.74167.Malta’s business confidence decreased to 68.3 by -12.1% on November 2020 from 77.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s business confidence decreased by -34.33%. Malta’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 68.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 75.4833.Malta’s consumer confidence icnreased to -10.7 by 13.83% on November 2020 from -9.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s consumer confidence decreased by -318.37%. Malta’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -10.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.79167.

Malta Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 88.8 94.4 -6 -18 -100.0 -100.0 13 2022-10-31
ESI - Economic Composite 94.4 97.8 -3 -18 -100.0 -100.0 10 2022-09-30
Manufacturing sector -11.4 -21.4 -47 -733 -100.0 -100.0 5 2022-09-30
Consumer sector -9.5 -10.6 -10 -251 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30
Construction sector 18 15 20 -25 100.0 -100.0 0 2022-05-31
Retail sector 6.4 -22 -129 -78 -100.0 -100.0 62 2022-09-30
Services sector 7 33.6 -79 -85 -100.0 -100.0 33 2022-09-30

Malta’s business confidence decreased to 68.3 by -12.1% on November 2020 from 77.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s business confidence decreased by -34.33%. Malta’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 68.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 75.4833.Malta’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 68.3 by -1210.0% on January 2021 from 77.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -3433.0%. Malta’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 68.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 75.4833.Malta’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -30.0 by 19126.0% on January 2021 from -10.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Manufacturing sector increased by 26145.0%. Malta’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -30.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.7083.Malta’s Consumer sector icnreased to -10.7 by 1383.0% on January 2021 from -9.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Consumer sector decreased by -31837.0%. Malta’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -10.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.79167.Malta’s Construction sector decreased to 11.0 by -32000.0% on January 2021 from -5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Construction sector decreased by -5217.0%. Malta’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of 11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.83333.Malta’s Retail sector decreased to -19.9 by -5340.0% on January 2021 from -42.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Retail sector increased by 122667.0%. Malta’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -19.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -30.7833.Malta’s Services sector icnreased to -38.8 by 2012.0% on January 2021 from -32.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Services sector decreased by -22763.0%. Malta’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -38.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.0667.

Malta Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -18.6 -9.6 94 -338 -100.0 -100.0 12 2022-10-31
car registrations 1752 2513 -30 9 -100.0 100.0 0 2019-09-30
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -10.9 -8.5 28 -154 -100.0 -100.0 13 2022-09-30
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) -14.5 -16.6 -13 -503 -100.0 -100.0 3 2022-09-30
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 21.7 23.3 -7 82 -100.0 100.0 88 2022-09-30
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 3.6 2.6 38 -118 100.0 100.0 33 2022-09-30
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) 7.9 10 -21 -13 100.0 -100.0 48 2022-09-30
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) 2.4 -2 -220 -70 -100.0 -100.0 53 2022-09-30
Consumer - Households Financial situation 19.4 14.6 33 -37 -100.0 -100.0 7 2022-09-30

Malta’s consumer confidence icnreased to -10.7 by 13.83% on November 2020 from -9.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s consumer confidence decreased by -318.37%. Malta’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -10.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.79167.Malta’s car registrations decreased to 1752.0 by -30.28% on July 2019 from 2513.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s car registrations increased by 8.89%. Malta’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 1752.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1986.25.Malta’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -4.5 by 8750.0% on January 2021 from -2.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) decreased by -12885.0%. Malta’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -4.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.48333.Malta’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased to -0.7 by -24000.0% on January 2021 from 0.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -10753.0%. Malta’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.025.Malta’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased to -7.0 by -4309.0% on January 2021 from -12.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -13241.0%. Malta’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.45.Malta’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased to 15.9 by -2902.0% on January 2021 from 22.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased by -16943.0%. Malta’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 15.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.1333.Malta’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -25.5 by 1697.0% on January 2021 from -21.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 9173.0%. Malta’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -25.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.075.Malta’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) icnreased to 8.7 by 2429.0% on January 2021 from 7.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) increased by 280000.0%. Malta’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 8.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.78333.Malta’s Consumer – Households Financial situation icnreased to 29.8 by 383.0% on January 2021 from 28.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Consumer – Households Financial situation increased by 1462.0%. Malta’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 29.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 26.8083.

Malta Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector -11.4 -21.4 -47 -733 -100.0 -100.0 5 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Order Books 0.1 -38.3 -100 -100 100.0 100.0 13 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 71.4 28 155 721 100.0 100.0 97 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 44.5 -13 -442 430 100.0 100.0 98 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -0.7 -40.7 -98 -98 100.0 100.0 10 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) 50 29.6 69 1752 100.0 100.0 100 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 15.5 3.7 319 -61 100.0 -100.0 30 2022-09-30
industrial production 13.5 11.1 21.62 -497.06 100.0 100.0 96.6667 2022-09-30
industrial production mom 1.2 -0.6 -300 -271.43 100.0 100.0 63.3333 2022-09-30
capacity utilization 63.6 67.6 -6 -18 -100.0 -100.0 6 2022-12-31

Malta’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -30.0 by 19126.0% on January 2021 from -10.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Manufacturing sector increased by 26145.0%. Malta’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -30.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.7083.Malta’s Manufacturing – Order Books icnreased to -50.2 by 2550.0% on January 2021 from -40.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 7676.0%. Malta’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -50.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -47.5083.Malta’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) icnreased to -37.4 by 8424.0% on January 2021 from -20.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -259333.0%. Malta’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -37.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.6833.Malta’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) icnreased to 7.6 by 3818.0% on January 2021 from 5.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) increased by 750000.0%. Malta’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of 7.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.6667.Malta’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books icnreased to -39.3 by 1424.0% on January 2021 from -34.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 1008.0%. Malta’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -39.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -46.4917.Malta’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) icnreased to 40.4 by 8704.0% on January 2021 from 21.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) increased by 12444.0%. Malta’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of 40.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 27.5167.Malta’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to 0.7 by -9772.0% on January 2021 from 30.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -9673.0%. Malta’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.89167.Malta’s industrial production decreased to 1.0 by -190.91% on October 2020 from -1.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s industrial production decreased by -41.18%. Malta’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.00833.Malta’s industrial production mom decreased to 1.4 by -275.0% on October 2020 from -0.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s industrial production mom decreased by -163.64%. Malta’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 1.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.0583333.Malta’s capacity utilization icnreased to 73.5 by 8.09% on June 2020 from 68.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s capacity utilization decreased by -11.23%. Malta’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 73.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 75.6667.

Malta Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector 7 33.6 -79 -85 -100.0 -100.0 33 2022-09-30
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 2.2 37.4 -94 -97 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 28.9 36.8 -21 -19 -100.0 -100.0 50 2022-09-30
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) 6.7 16.9 -60 -60 -100.0 -100.0 47 2022-09-30
Services - Demand (past 3 months) 12.1 46.4 -74 -78 -100.0 -100.0 42 2022-09-30
Services - Employment (past 3 months) 11.1 37.5 -70 -61 -100.0 -100.0 51 2022-09-30
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 18.8 55.9 -66 -65 -100.0 -100.0 43 2022-09-30

Malta’s Services sector icnreased to -38.8 by 2012.0% on January 2021 from -32.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Services sector decreased by -22763.0%. Malta’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -38.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.0667.Malta’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 3.5 by -12800.0% on January 2021 from -12.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -9054.0%. Malta’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 3.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.16667.Malta’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -12.0 by 1650.0% on January 2021 from -10.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -13762.0%. Malta’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -12.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.45833.Malta’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -61.3 by 6390.0% on January 2021 from -37.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -44246.0%. Malta’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -61.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -34.5417.Malta’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -58.6 by 2468.0% on January 2021 from -47.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -26143.0%. Malta’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -58.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -32.4833.Malta’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) icnreased to -40.0 by 2346.0% on January 2021 from -32.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -29048.0%. Malta’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -40.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.3417.Malta’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased to -2.1 by -21053.0% on January 2021 from 1.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -11680.0%. Malta’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -2.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.71667.

Malta Retail Sector

 

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector 6.4 -22 -129 -78 -100.0 -100.0 62 2022-09-30
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) 44.5 -21.1 -311 64 100.0 100.0 77 2022-09-30
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 83.5 83.6 -0 49 100.0 100.0 0 2022-09-30
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) 28.7 -12.3 -333 -47 100.0 -100.0 60 2022-09-30
Retail - Stock Levels -1 -2.4 -58 -66 100.0 100.0 35 2022-09-30
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) -10.5 -56.2 -81 -136 -100.0 -100.0 47 2022-09-30
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) -0.3 6.3 -105 -101 -100.0 -100.0 38 2022-09-30
retail sales 7.4 2.3 221.74 -49.66 -100.0 -100.0 63.3333 2022-09-30
retail sales MoM 1.7 -1 -270 -383.33 100.0 100.0 76.6667 2022-09-30

Malta’s Retail sector decreased to -19.9 by -5340.0% on January 2021 from -42.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Retail sector increased by 122667.0%. Malta’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -19.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -30.7833.Malta’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -57.4 by 17.0% on January 2021 from -57.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -74494.0%. Malta’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -57.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -43.3667.Malta’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 27.1 by -590.0% on January 2021 from 28.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) increased by 61316.0%. Malta’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 27.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.525.Malta’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -28.5 by -4790.0% on January 2021 from -54.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -25405.0%. Malta’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -28.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.6083.Malta’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased to 4.2 by -8279.0% on January 2021 from 24.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -5532.0%. Malta’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 4.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 33.6667.Malta’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -27.0 by -4512.0% on January 2021 from -49.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -25976.0%. Malta’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -27.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -36.2833.Malta’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -28.6 by -435.0% on January 2021 from -29.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -61071.0%. Malta’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -28.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.45833.Malta’s retail sales decreased to -7.2 by -37.39% on October 2020 from -11.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s retail sales decreased by -212.5%. Malta’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of -7.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.125.Malta’s retail sales MoM decreased to 1.9 by -26.92% on October 2020 from 2.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s retail sales MoM decreased by -9.52%. Malta’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of 1.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.4.

 

Malta Construction Sector

 

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector 18 15 20 -25 100.0 -100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Current Order Books 12 17 -29 71 100.0 100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 16 22 -27 -41 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 24 13 85 -41 100.0 -100.0 45 2022-05-31
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) 21 23 -9 75 100.0 100.0 83 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 17 19 -11 -32 -100.0 -100.0 30 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 0 2 -100 -100 -100.0 -100.0 2 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 1 2 -50 0 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 49 44 11 20 100.0 100.0 62 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 0 0 0 -100 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 26 24 8 117 100.0 100.0 85 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 48 47 2 380 100.0 100.0 100 2022-05-31

Malta’s Construction sector decreased to 11.0 by -32000.0% on January 2021 from -5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Construction sector decreased by -5217.0%. Malta’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of 11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.83333.Malta’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased to 13.0 by -24444.0% on January 2021 from -9.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 1818.0%. Malta’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of 13.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.41667.Malta’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to 1.0 by -12000.0% on January 2021 from -5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -9333.0%. Malta’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.58333.Malta’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to 10.0 by -110000.0% on January 2021 from -1.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -7143.0%. Malta’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.91667.Malta’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased to 3.0 by -4000.0% on January 2021 from 5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -6250.0%. Malta’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.25.Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) icnreased to 26.0 by 1818.0% on January 2021 from 22.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) increased by 1304.0%. Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 26.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.1667.Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) decreased to 11.0 by -3529.0% on January 2021 from 17.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 5714.0%. Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.3333.Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased to -4.0 by -23333.0% on January 2021 from 3.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -30000.0%. Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of -4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.66667.Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased to 30.0 by -3878.0% on January 2021 from 49.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -4118.0%. Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 30.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 34.9167.Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) icnreased to -3.0 by 20000.0% on January 2021 from -1.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased by -13000.0%. Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of -3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.5.Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) icnreased to 20.0 by 4286.0% on January 2021 from 14.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 6667.0%. Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 20.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.0.Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 50.0 by 1111.0% on January 2021 from 45.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 17778.0%. Malta’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 50.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 35.5.

Malta GDP

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 3468250 3304310 5 30 100.0 100.0 97 2022-06-30
gdp growth annual 8.9 8.1 10 93 100.0 100.0 80 2022-06-30
gdp 17.19 14.92 15 98 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
gdp growth 1 2.5 -60 -29 -100.0 -100.0 52 2022-03-31

Malta’s Real GDP icnreased to 2910500.0 by 12.77% on May 2020 from 2580970.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s Real GDP increased by 12.1%. Malta’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 2910500.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2641650.0.Malta’s gdp growth annual decreased to -9.9 by -38.51% on July 2020 from -16.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s gdp growth annual decreased by -223.75%. Malta’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -9.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.88333.Malta’s gdp icnreased to 14.79 by 1.3% on January 2019 from 14.6 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Malta’s gdp increased by 87.69%. Malta’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 14.79 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.89.Malta’s gdp growth decreased to 12.7 by -174.27% on September 2020 from -17.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s gdp growth increased by 504.76%. Malta’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 12.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.308333.

Malta inflation

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 6.8 6.1 11 2167 100.0 100.0 92 2022-07-31
consumer price index cpi 113.38 112.54 0.75 6.94 UP UP 98.33 2022-11-20
Producer Price Index 118.88 117.35 1.3 7.15 UP UP 100 2022-11-20
PPI Index 4.4 3.6 22 -21 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30

Malta’s inflation cpi decreased to 0.2 by -66.67% on November 2020 from 0.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s inflation cpi decreased by -84.62%. Malta’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 0.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.891667.Malta’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 103.89 by 0.26% on November 2020 from 103.62 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s consumer price index cpi increased by 0.27%. Malta’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 103.89 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 103.289.Malta’s Producer Price Index decreased to 107.8 by -0.13% on November 2020 from 107.94 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s Producer Price Index decreased by -0.48%. Malta’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 107.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 108.372.Malta’s PPI Index decreased to -0.5 by -16.67% on November 2020 from -0.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s PPI Index decreased by -127.78%. Malta’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -0.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.491667.

Malta Government Policy

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -8 -9.5 -16 150 -100.0 -100.0 0 2021-01-31
Government budget 108854 155900 -30 -171 100.0 100.0 27 2022-09-30
government revenues 411496 576513 -29 1 -100.0 100.0 49 2022-09-30
fiscal expenditure 520349 420613 24 -7 100.0 -100.0 15 2022-09-30

Malta’s Government budget icnreased to -103233.0 by 95.49% on October 2020 from -52808.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s Government budget decreased by -149.18%. Malta’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -103233.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -101603.0.Malta’s government revenues decreased to 387923.0 by -4.33% on October 2020 from 405493.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s government revenues decreased by -29.67%. Malta’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 387923.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 365726.0.Malta’s fiscal expenditure icnreased to 491156.0 by 7.17% on October 2020 from 458301.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s fiscal expenditure increased by 43.76%. Malta’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 491156.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 467329.0.

Malta Monetary Policy

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
money supply m0 1491.4 1484.99 0.43 4.55 100.0 100.0 91.6667 2022-09-30
money supply m1 22577.3 22251.5 1.46 12.52 100.0 100.0 100 2022-09-30
money supply m2 26013.7 25811.1 0.78 7.69 100.0 100.0 100 2022-09-30
money supply m3 26013.7 25808.4 0.8 7.91 100.0 100.0 100 2022-09-30

Malta’s money supply m2 icnreased to 21973.2 by 0.16% on October 2020 from 21938.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s money supply m2 increased by 6.7%. Malta’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 21973.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 21323.3.

Malta Employment

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 99.5 116.7 -15 -16 -100.0 -100.0 14 2022-09-30
unemployment rate 3.2 3.6 -11 -11 -100.0 -100.0 52 2021-12-31
youth unemployment rate 10.7 10.3 4 -2 100.0 -100.0 54 2022-09-30
long term unemployment rate 0.9 1.3 -31 -47 -100.0 -100.0 12 2021-09-30

Malta’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 80.6 by -562.0% on January 2021 from 85.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Malta’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -1956.0%. Malta’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 80.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 82.7.Malta’s unemployment rate icnreased to 4.6 by 4.55% on May 2020 from 4.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s unemployment rate increased by 15.0%. Malta’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 4.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.74167.Malta’s youth unemployment rate icnreased to 10.1 by 4.12% on October 2020 from 9.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s youth unemployment rate increased by 12.22%. Malta’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 10.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.1583.Malta’s long term unemployment rate decreased to 0.9 by -10.0% on February 2020 from 1.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -50.0%. Malta’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 0.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.475.

Malta Trade & Capital Flows

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -255880 -16988 1406 -171 -100.0 -100.0 22 2022-06-30
current account to gdp -4.9 -2.9 69 -45 -100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
exports 377900 327300 15.46 35.94 100.0 100.0 93.3333 2022-09-30
imports 662400 866400 -23.55 27.41 -100.0 100.0 86.6667 2022-09-30
balance of trade -284500 -539100 -47.23 2.04 100.0 -100.0 36.6667 2022-09-30
foreign direct investment 1007.3 992 2 24 100.0 100.0 75 2022-06-30

Malta’s current account decreased to -352282.0 by -276.1% on December 2019 from 200048.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s current account decreased by -179.96%. Malta’s current account trend is down since the current value of -352282.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 289510.0.Malta’s current account to gdp decreased to 9.7 by -13.39% on January 2019 from 11.2 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Malta’s current account to gdp decreased by -610.53%. Malta’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of 9.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.98333.Malta’s exports icnreased to 255688.0 by 17.47% on October 2020 from 217659.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s exports decreased by -8.91%. Malta’s exports trend is down since the current value of 255688.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 251893.0.Malta’s imports decreased to 339891.0 by -2.73% on October 2020 from 349424.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s imports decreased by -46.05%. Malta’s imports trend is down since the current value of 339891.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 444198.0.Malta’s balance of trade decreased to -84203.0 by -36.1% on October 2020 from -131765.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s balance of trade decreased by -75.89%. Malta’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -84203.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -169640.0.Malta’s foreign direct investment icnreased to 1013.7 by 13.41% on July 2019 from 893.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s foreign direct investment increased by 86.72%. Malta’s foreign direct investment trend is down since the current value of 1013.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 950.483.

Malta Reserves

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gold reserves 0.09 0.16 -44 0 -100.0 -100.0 37 2021-09-30

Malta’s gold reserves decreased to 0.47 by -24.19% on April 2020 from 0.62 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s gold reserves increased by 327.27%. Malta’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 0.47 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.265833.Malta’s government debt decreased to 5614.9 by -3.72% on July 2019 from 5832.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s government debt decreased by -2.99%. Malta’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 5614.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5750.92.Malta’s government debt to gdp decreased to 43.1 by -5.48% on January 2019 from 45.6 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Malta’s government debt to gdp decreased by -30.82%. Malta’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 43.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 59.9833.Malta’s external debt icnreased to 89030.5 by 0.39% on May 2020 from 88680.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s external debt decreased by -2.86%. Malta’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 89030.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 91760.7.

Malta Debt

 

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 8599.1 8655.2 -1 47 100.0 100.0 98 2022-06-30
government debt to gdp 57 53.4 7 -16 100.0 -100.0 0 2021-01-31
external debt 94228.8 94045.7 0 2 100.0 100.0 25 2022-06-30

Malta’s government debt decreased to 5614.9 by -3.72% on July 2019 from 5832.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s government debt decreased by -2.99%. Malta’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 5614.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5750.92.Malta’s government debt to gdp decreased to 43.1 by -5.48% on January 2019 from 45.6 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Malta’s government debt to gdp decreased by -30.82%. Malta’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 43.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 59.9833.Malta’s external debt icnreased to 89030.5 by 0.39% on May 2020 from 88680.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Malta’s external debt decreased by -2.86%. Malta’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 89030.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 91760.7.

Malta Banking activity

 

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
bank lending rate 3.85 3.76 2 7 100.0 100.0 97 2022-09-30
loans to private sector 4339.6 4271.7 2 7 100.0 100.0 88 2022-09-30

Malta’s bank lending rate decreased to 3.59 by -0.83% on September 2020 from 3.62 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s bank lending rate decreased by -1.64%. Malta’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 3.59 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.78833.Malta’s loans to private sector icnreased to 3888.8 by 1.12% on September 2020 from 3845.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Malta’s loans to private sector increased by 4.43%. Malta’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 3888.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3768.05.

 

Malta macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Malta economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Malta Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Malta Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Malta’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
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