Macedonia Economy

Macedonia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -3.3 by -77.85% on July 2020 from -14.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -3400.0%. North Macedonia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -3.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.625.Macedonia’s inflation cpi icnreased to 2.2 by 4.76% on November 2020 from 2.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s inflation cpi decreased by -2300.0%. North Macedonia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 2.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.05.Macedonia’s unemployment rate decreased to 16.5 by -1.2% on May 2020 from 16.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s unemployment rate decreased by -25.34%. North Macedonia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 16.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18.6.

Macedonia Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Macedonia Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Macedonia’s current macroeconomic conditions are analyzed below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Macro model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Macedonia Macro Model

 

Macedonia News

Macedonia Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 2 4 -50 -53.49 UP Down 47.5 2022-12-01
inflation cpi 19.8 18.7 5.88 382.93 100.0 100.0 100 2022-10-31
unemployment rate 14.5 14.8 -2 -19 -100.0 -100.0 35 2022-03-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 85.2 88.8 -4 -9 -100.0 -100.0 25 2022-09-30
ESI - Economic Composite 89.4 87.6 2 14 -100.0 100.0 83 2022-02-28
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 6096.7 6113.4 -0 40 100.0 100.0 0 2022-03-31
government debt to gdp 51.8 51.9 -0 119 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
external debt 10379 9994.01 4 25 100.0 100.0 0 2022-06-30
gold reserves 6.89 6.89 0 -0 -100.0 -100.0 32 2021-06-30
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -37.2 47.5 -178.32 263.64 UP Down 40 2022-12-01
current account to gdp -3.5 -3.3 6 -72 -100.0 100.0 0 2020-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 3.5 3 17 0 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-10-13
central bank balance sheet 289409 288044 0.47 8.49 UP UP 98.33 2022-11-25
banks balance sheet 781904 779816 0.27 9.14 UP UP 100 2022-11-25
money supply m2 428624 429746 -0.26 5.54 UP UP 98.33 2022-11-25
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -4931 -957 415 1181 -100.0 -100.0 97 2022-09-30
government revenues 21682 19317 12 12 100.0 100.0 66 2022-09-30
fiscal expenditure 26613 20274 31 34 100.0 100.0 100 2022-09-30

Macedonia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -3.3 by -77.85% on July 2020 from -14.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -3400.0%. North Macedonia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -3.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.625.Macedonia’s inflation cpi icnreased to 2.2 by 4.76% on November 2020 from 2.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s inflation cpi decreased by -2300.0%. North Macedonia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 2.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.05.Macedonia’s unemployment rate decreased to 16.5 by -1.2% on May 2020 from 16.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s unemployment rate decreased by -25.34%. North Macedonia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 16.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18.6.Macedonia’s building permits icnreased to 270.0 by 8.87% on October 2020 from 248.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s building permits decreased by -12.34%. North Macedonia’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 270.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 237.75.Macedonia’s business confidence icnreased to 25.9 by 0.39% on November 2020 from 25.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s business confidence decreased by -22.22%. North Macedonia’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 25.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 27.0333.

Macedonia Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 24.4 25.6 -4.69 -12.86 Down Down 11.67 2022-11-17
ESI - Economic Composite 85.2 88.8 -4 -9 -100.0 -100.0 25 2022-09-30
ESI - Economic Composite 89.4 87.6 2 14 -100.0 100.0 83 2022-02-28
Manufacturing sector -2.3 -1.4 64 -49 100.0 100.0 76 2022-09-30
Consumer sector -43.7 -37.3 17 96 -100.0 -100.0 73 2022-09-30
Construction sector -11 -7 57 83 -100.0 -100.0 81 2022-05-31
Retail sector -9.7 -10.4 -7 1840 -100.0 -100.0 98 2022-09-30
Services sector 1.5 5.7 -74 -72 -100.0 -100.0 43 2022-09-30

Macedonia’s business confidence icnreased to 25.9 by 0.39% on November 2020 from 25.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s business confidence decreased by -22.22%. North Macedonia’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 25.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 27.0333.Macedonia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 42.8 by -404.0% on January 2021 from 44.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -5642.0%. North Macedonia’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 42.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 59.2917.Macedonia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 42.8 by -404.0% on January 2021 from 44.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -5642.0%. North Macedonia’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 42.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 59.2917.Macedonia’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -19.7 by 368.0% on January 2021 from -19.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -1980000.0%. North Macedonia’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -19.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.5583.Macedonia’s Consumer sector icnreased to -30.7 by 1123.0% on January 2021 from -27.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Consumer sector increased by 18165.0%. North Macedonia’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -30.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.3917.Macedonia’s Construction sector decreased to -10.0 by -2308.0% on January 2021 from -13.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Construction sector increased by 23333.0%. North Macedonia’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.25.Macedonia’s Retail sector icnreased to -13.5 by 1066.0% on January 2021 from -12.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Retail sector decreased by -28493.0%. North Macedonia’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -13.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.26667.Macedonia’s Services sector decreased to -25.4 by -993.0% on January 2021 from -28.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Services sector decreased by -35918.0%. North Macedonia’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -25.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.7833.

Macedonia Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -47.8 -42.4 13 161 -100.0 -100.0 77 2022-09-30
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) -34.1 -26 31 1695 -100.0 -100.0 98 2022-09-30
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 24.4 17.6 39 49 -100.0 100.0 71 2022-09-30
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 21.9 11.8 86 18 100.0 100.0 0 2022-09-30
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -43.4 -37.9 15 7 -100.0 -100.0 60 2022-09-30
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -47.8 -43.7 9 43 -100.0 -100.0 94 2022-09-30
Consumer - Households Financial situation -15 -11.1 35 72 -100.0 -100.0 72 2022-09-30
retail sales yoy -4.6 -0.7 557.14 -163.89 Down Down 18.33 2022-12-01

Macedonia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -27.4 by 1913.0% on January 2021 from -23.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 58500.0%. North Macedonia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -27.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.1583.Macedonia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -14.4 by 4694.0% on January 2021 from -9.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -43488.0%. North Macedonia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -14.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.65833.Macedonia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased to 12.1 by -833.0% on January 2021 from 13.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) increased by 9836.0%. North Macedonia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 12.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.6.Macedonia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 31.2 by 2140.0% on January 2021 from 25.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased by -73674.0%. North Macedonia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 31.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.7833.Macedonia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -51.2 by 39.0% on January 2021 from -51.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 6570.0%. North Macedonia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -51.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -43.2833.Macedonia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) icnreased to -37.6 by 80.0% on January 2021 from -37.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased by -433.0%. North Macedonia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -37.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -37.9417.Macedonia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to -9.9 by -660.0% on January 2021 from -10.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation increased by 14750.0%. North Macedonia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of -9.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.975.Macedonia’s retail sales yoy icnreased to -13.9 by 36.27% on November 2020 from -10.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s retail sales yoy decreased by -231.13%. North Macedonia’s retail sales yoy trend is down since the current value of -13.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.78333.

Macedonia Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector -2.3 -1.4 64 -49 100.0 100.0 76 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Order Books -34.7 -35.7 -3 -19 100.0 100.0 37 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 55.7 56.4 -1 156 100.0 100.0 78 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) -8.8 -10.5 -16 -31 -100.0 100.0 73 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -31.8 -30.3 5 -27 -100.0 100.0 28 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -8.9 -4.5 98 25 -100.0 -100.0 70 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 18.8 27 -30 -14 -100.0 -100.0 42 2022-09-30
industrial production -5.3 -0.5 960 -33.75 Down UP 20 2022-12-01

Macedonia’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -19.7 by 368.0% on January 2021 from -19.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -1980000.0%. North Macedonia’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -19.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.5583.Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased to -59.9 by -164.0% on January 2021 from -60.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 11547.0%. North Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -59.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -49.325.Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) icnreased to -6.7 by 8108.0% on January 2021 from -3.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -45263.0%. North Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -6.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.6.Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) icnreased to -45.3 by 3169.0% on January 2021 from -34.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) increased by 43294.0%. North Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of -45.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -30.5.Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books decreased to -56.4 by -1657.0% on January 2021 from -67.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 5710.0%. North Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -56.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -50.5833.Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased to -0.3 by -9412.0% on January 2021 from -5.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -8966.0%. North Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of -0.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.566667.Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to 0.4 by -13636.0% on January 2021 from -1.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -9842.0%. North Macedonia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 0.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.225.Macedonia’s industrial production decreased to -4.0 by -23.08% on November 2020 from -5.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s industrial production increased by 90.48%. North Macedonia’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.25.

Macedonia Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector 1.5 5.7 -74 -72 -100.0 -100.0 43 2022-09-30
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 3.9 21.6 -82 -65 -100.0 -100.0 22 2022-09-30
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 38.5 40.7 -5 285 100.0 100.0 87 2022-09-30
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) 2.3 -0.9 -356 -253 100.0 100.0 23 2022-09-30
Services - Demand (past 3 months) -1.7 -3.7 -54 -126 -100.0 -100.0 28 2022-09-30
Services - Employment (past 3 months) 2.1 -3.2 -166 17 100.0 100.0 72 2022-09-30
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 2.3 6.7 -66 -79 -100.0 -100.0 35 2022-09-30

Macedonia’s Services sector decreased to -25.4 by -993.0% on January 2021 from -28.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Services sector decreased by -35918.0%. North Macedonia’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -25.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.7833.Macedonia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -9.4 by 5667.0% on January 2021 from -6.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -15222.0%. North Macedonia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -9.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.60833.Macedonia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -3.2 by -45556.0% on January 2021 from 0.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -34615.0%. North Macedonia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -3.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.55.Macedonia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -35.3 by -855.0% on January 2021 from -38.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -79216.0%. North Macedonia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -35.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -25.7167.Macedonia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased to -31.5 by -2125.0% on January 2021 from -40.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -60807.0%. North Macedonia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -31.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -27.2333.Macedonia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) icnreased to -17.2 by 2647.0% on January 2021 from -13.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) increased by 181111.0%. North Macedonia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -17.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.7.Macedonia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) icnreased to -6.5 by 2037.0% on January 2021 from -5.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -15652.0%. North Macedonia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -6.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.075.

Macedonia Retail Sector

 

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector -9.7 -10.4 -7 1840 -100.0 -100.0 98 2022-09-30
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) -9.4 -6 57 -304 -100.0 -100.0 12 2022-09-30
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 64 58.8 9 48 100.0 100.0 51 2022-09-30
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) -27.8 -30.1 -8 309 -100.0 -100.0 88 2022-09-30
Retail - Stock Levels -5.1 -1.7 200 -221 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) -6.5 -2.9 124 -167 -100.0 -100.0 10 2022-09-30
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) -9.2 -5.3 74 -248 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30

Macedonia’s Retail sector icnreased to -13.5 by 1066.0% on January 2021 from -12.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Retail sector decreased by -28493.0%. North Macedonia’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -13.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.26667.Macedonia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -17.3 by 7300.0% on January 2021 from -10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -19153.0%. North Macedonia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -17.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.20833.Macedonia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to 9.4 by 3429.0% on January 2021 from 7.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) increased by 4242.0%. North Macedonia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 9.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.40833.Macedonia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -27.4 by -1302.0% on January 2021 from -31.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -147000.0%. North Macedonia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -27.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.3167.Macedonia’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased to -3.7 by -102500.0% on January 2021 from 0.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -15692.0%. North Macedonia’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of -3.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.80833.Macedonia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -16.9 by 25208.0% on January 2021 from -4.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -16402.0%. North Macedonia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -16.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.275.Macedonia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -0.8 by -7241.0% on January 2021 from -2.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -11538.0%. North Macedonia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -0.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.85.

Macedonia Construction Sector

 

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector -11 -7 57 83 -100.0 -100.0 81 2022-05-31
Construction - Current Order Books -27 -13 108 8 -100.0 -100.0 60 2022-05-31
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 70 58 21 25 100.0 100.0 37 2022-05-31
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 5 -1 -600 -62 -100.0 -100.0 22 2022-05-31
building permits 277 378 -26.72 -12.89 Down Down 60 2022-11-20
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) -14 -5 180 56 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 9 8 12 12 -100.0 100.0 62 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 29 29 0 -3 100.0 -100.0 46 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 16 11 45 33 100.0 100.0 85 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 33 33 0 27 -100.0 100.0 47 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 9 6 50 200 100.0 100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 4 25 -84 -67 -100.0 -100.0 7 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 28 23 22 33 100.0 100.0 92 2022-05-31

Macedonia’s Construction sector decreased to -10.0 by -2308.0% on January 2021 from -13.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Construction sector increased by 23333.0%. North Macedonia’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.25.Macedonia’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased to -27.0 by -2059.0% on January 2021 from -34.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 3500.0%. North Macedonia’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -27.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -31.4167.Macedonia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to 8.0 by -2727.0% on January 2021 from 11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -5294.0%. North Macedonia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.3333.Macedonia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to 6.0 by -2500.0% on January 2021 from 8.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -6000.0%. North Macedonia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.0.Macedonia’s building permits icnreased to 270.0 by 8.87% on October 2020 from 248.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s building permits decreased by -12.34%. North Macedonia’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 270.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 237.75.Macedonia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased to -28.0 by -345.0% on January 2021 from -29.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -66000.0%. North Macedonia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -28.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.1667.Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) icnreased to 9.0 by 2857.0% on January 2021 from 7.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -4375.0%. North Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.8333.Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 3750.0%. North Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 44.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 32.8333.Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased to 9.0 by -4000.0% on January 2021 from 15.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -2500.0%. North Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.0833.Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) icnreased to 22.0 by 5714.0% on January 2021 from 14.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -4054.0%. North Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 22.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 26.0833.Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) North Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.33333.Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased to 15.0 by -625.0% on January 2021 from 16.0 in the previous . North Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 15.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 16.6667.Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 26250.0%. North Macedonia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 29.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 28.0833.

Macedonia GDP

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 202888 180836 12 22 100.0 100.0 78 2022-06-30
gdp growth annual 2 4 -50 -53.49 UP Down 47.5 2022-12-01
gdp 13.88 12.12 15 48 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31

Macedonia’s Real GDP icnreased to 171596.0 by 14.56% on May 2020 from 149782.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Real GDP increased by 6.76%. North Macedonia’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 171596.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 166112.0.Macedonia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -3.3 by -77.85% on July 2020 from -14.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -3400.0%. North Macedonia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -3.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.625.Macedonia’s gdp icnreased to 12.69 by 0.48% on January 2019 from 12.63 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s gdp increased by 52.16%. North Macedonia’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 12.69 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.7083.

Macedonia inflation

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 19.8 18.7 5.88 382.93 100.0 100.0 100 2022-10-31
consumer price index cpi 143.88 141.96 1.35 19.79 UP UP 100 2022-12-01
Producer Price Index 139.9 140 -0 16 100.0 100.0 86 2022-08-31
PPI Index 15.9 18 -12 13 -100.0 100.0 65 2022-08-31

Macedonia’s inflation cpi icnreased to 2.2 by 4.76% on November 2020 from 2.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s inflation cpi decreased by -2300.0%. North Macedonia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 2.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.05.Macedonia’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 115.41 by 0.07% on October 2020 from 115.33 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s consumer price index cpi increased by 2.07%. North Macedonia’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 115.41 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 114.338.Macedonia’s Producer Price Index decreased to 105.4 by -0.57% on October 2020 from 106.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Producer Price Index decreased by -0.66%. North Macedonia’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 105.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 104.958.Macedonia’s PPI Index icnreased to -0.6 by 20.0% on October 2020 from -0.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s PPI Index decreased by -113.04%. North Macedonia’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.758333.

Macedonia Government Policy

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -5.4 -8.1 -33 108 -100.0 -100.0 0 2021-01-31
Government budget -4931 -957 415 1181 -100.0 -100.0 97 2022-09-30
government revenues 21682 19317 12 12 100.0 100.0 66 2022-09-30
fiscal expenditure 26613 20274 31 34 100.0 100.0 100 2022-09-30

Macedonia’s Government budget decreased to 1047.0 by -210.09% on October 2020 from -951.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s Government budget decreased by -62.27%. North Macedonia’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of 1047.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3591.08.Macedonia’s government revenues icnreased to 18525.0 by 12.37% on October 2020 from 16486.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s government revenues decreased by -5.61%. North Macedonia’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 18525.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15975.5.Macedonia’s fiscal expenditure icnreased to 17478.0 by 0.24% on October 2020 from 17437.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s fiscal expenditure increased by 3.71%. North Macedonia’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 17478.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19566.6.

Macedonia Monetary Policy

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 3.5 3 17 0 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-10-13
central bank balance sheet 289409 288044 0.47 8.49 UP UP 98.33 2022-11-25
banks balance sheet 781904 779816 0.27 9.14 UP UP 100 2022-11-25
money supply m0 43315.4 44648.1 -2.98 -3.1 Down Down 73.33 2022-11-25
money supply m1 219539 220852 -0.59 3.64 UP UP 96.67 2022-11-25
money supply m2 428624 429746 -0.26 5.54 UP UP 98.33 2022-11-25

Macedonia’s interest rate decreased to 1.5 by -14.29% on May 2020 from 1.75 in the previous Daily. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s interest rate decreased by -33.33%. North Macedonia’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.125.Macedonia’s central bank balance sheet icnreased to 262020.0 by 5.78% on October 2020 from 247692.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s central bank balance sheet increased by 9.62%. North Macedonia’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 262020.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 233998.0.Macedonia’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 665877.0 by 1.45% on September 2020 from 656340.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s banks balance sheet increased by 7.1%. North Macedonia’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 665877.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 648038.0.Macedonia’s money supply m2 decreased to 365838.0 by -0.27% on October 2020 from 366811.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s money supply m2 increased by 11.03%. North Macedonia’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 365838.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 352488.0.

Macedonia Employment

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 86.6 94.9 -9 -17 -100.0 -100.0 17 2022-09-30
EEI - Employment Composite 96.9 95.7 1 6 -100.0 100.0 79 2022-02-28
unemployment rate 14.5 14.8 -2 -19 -100.0 -100.0 35 2022-03-31
long term unemployment rate 12.9 12.8 1 -22 -100.0 -100.0 0 2020-12-31

Macedonia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 75.0 by -13.0% on January 2021 from 75.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -2891.0%. North Macedonia’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 75.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 85.8083.Macedonia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 75.0 by -13.0% on January 2021 from 75.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -2891.0%. North Macedonia’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 75.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 85.8083.Macedonia’s unemployment rate decreased to 16.5 by -1.2% on May 2020 from 16.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s unemployment rate decreased by -25.34%. North Macedonia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 16.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18.6.Macedonia’s long term unemployment rate decreased to 11.7 by -2.5% on January 2020 from 12.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -33.14%. North Macedonia’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 11.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14.6083.

Macedonia Trade & Capital Flows

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -37.2 47.5 -178.32 263.64 UP Down 40 2022-12-01
current account to gdp -3.5 -3.3 6 -72 -100.0 100.0 0 2020-01-31
exports 754113 637680 18.26 13.34 100.0 100.0 93.3333 2022-09-30
imports 1093250 993292 10.06 28.59 100.0 100.0 93.3333 2022-09-30
balance of trade -339135 -356215 -4.79 83.49 -100.0 -100.0 10 2022-09-30

Macedonia’s current account decreased to -28.44 by -1715.91% on September 2020 from 1.76 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s current account decreased by -132.28%. North Macedonia’s current account trend is down since the current value of -28.44 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -53.3733.Macedonia’s current account to gdp icnreased to -3.3 by 3200.0% on January 2019 from -0.1 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s current account to gdp decreased by -52.17%. North Macedonia’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of -3.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.21667.Macedonia’s exports icnreased to 703079.0 by 1.56% on October 2020 from 692278.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s exports increased by 12.15%. North Macedonia’s exports trend is down since the current value of 703079.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 536621.0.Macedonia’s imports icnreased to 897685.0 by 12.58% on October 2020 from 797409.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s imports increased by 5.98%. North Macedonia’s imports trend is down since the current value of 897685.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 718687.0.Macedonia’s balance of trade icnreased to -194605.0 by 85.11% on October 2020 from -105131.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s balance of trade decreased by -11.6%. North Macedonia’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -194605.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -179822.0.

 

Macedonia Reserves

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gold reserves 6.89 6.89 0 -0 -100.0 -100.0 32 2021-06-30

Macedonia’s gold reserves decreased to 6.89 by -0.14% on May 2019 from 6.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s gold reserves increased by 1.17%. North Macedonia’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 6.89 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.89083.Macedonia’s government debt icnreased to 4344.4 by 0.98% on October 2018 from 4302.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s government debt increased by 12791.4%. North Macedonia’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 4344.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2748.0.Macedonia’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 40.7 by 3.04% on January 2018 from 39.5 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s government debt to gdp increased by 33.01%. North Macedonia’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 40.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 31.95.Macedonia’s external debt icnreased to 8338.94 by 1.8% on January 2020 from 8191.16 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s external debt increased by 8.3%. North Macedonia’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 8338.94 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8101.26.

Macedonia Debt

 

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 6096.7 6113.4 -0 40 100.0 100.0 0 2022-03-31
government debt to gdp 51.8 51.9 -0 119 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
external debt 10379 9994.01 4 25 100.0 100.0 0 2022-06-30

Macedonia’s government debt icnreased to 4344.4 by 0.98% on October 2018 from 4302.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s government debt increased by 12791.4%. North Macedonia’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 4344.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2748.0.Macedonia’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 40.7 by 3.04% on January 2018 from 39.5 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s government debt to gdp increased by 33.01%. North Macedonia’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 40.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 31.95.Macedonia’s external debt icnreased to 8338.94 by 1.8% on January 2020 from 8191.16 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s external debt increased by 8.3%. North Macedonia’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 8338.94 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8101.26.

Macedonia Banking activity

 

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
deposit interest rate 1.4 0.9 56 0 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-10-13
lending rate 4 3.5 14 0 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-10-13

Macedonia’s deposit interest rate North Macedonia’s deposit interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.15 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.15.Macedonia’s lending rate decreased to 2.0 by -11.11% on May 2020 from 2.25 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis North Macedonia’s lending rate decreased by -27.27%. North Macedonia’s lending rate trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.58333.

Macedonia macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Macedonia economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Macedonia Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Macedonia Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Macedonia’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
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