Indices Performance:

• S&P: +9 bps, closing at 5,482 with MOC: -$800m to SELL.
• NDX: +19 bps, closing at 19,789.
• R2K: +100 bps, closing at 2,038.
• Dow: +9 bps, closing at 39,127.

Market Activity:

• Shares Traded: 10.6 billion shares across all US equity exchanges, compared to the YTD daily average of 11.5 billion shares.
• Volatility Index (VIX): -247 bps, now at 12.24.
• Crude Oil: +104 bps, priced at $81.74.
• 10-Year Treasury Yields: -4 bps, at 4.28%.
• Gold: +128 bps, at $2,327.
• DXY: +11 bps, at 105.931.
• Bitcoin: +5 bps, at $61,446.

Market Sentiment: The session was characterized by sideways trading as investors processed various macroeconomic data:

• Real GDP growth revised up by 0.1 percentage points to +1.4%.
• Durable Goods: Slightly above expectations.
• Claims: Reported at 233,000 vs. 235,000 consensus.

Investors are positioning ahead of the presidential debate, the upcoming PCE inflation report, and significant liquidity events including month-end, quarter-end, and the Russell Rebalance.

Market Dynamics:

• Yields: Remained stable (10YR -4 bps at 4.28%) despite substantial Treasury issuance and record inflows into TLT, suggesting a local floor amid hot CPI prints globally.
• US Pensions: Expected to sell $11 billion in US equities for quarter-end, ranking in the 69th percentile over the past three years in absolute terms.

Sector Analysis:

• Technology: Debate over whether the recent action in software vs. semiconductors is rotational or technical, with Growth Software up 2.5%. Hedge funds have net sold TMT stocks, led by semiconductors and semiconductor equipment.
• Amazon (AMZN): Achieved fresh all-time highs, bolstered by FDX volume beat, its stake in Rivian (RIVN), positive sell-side notes, China expansion, and the upcoming Prime Day.
• Healthcare: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) down 22% after lowering guidance due to retail front-end weakness, significant store closures, and a planned stake reduction in VillageMD. This affected its distributor (COR -4%) and retail pharmacy peer (CVS -3.5%).

Retail:

• GS Retail Sentiment Basket: Up 128 bps.
• Chewy (CHWY): Momentarily spiked 34% following a post by Roaring Kitty, but the rally was short-lived. WOOF also surged on the tweet but was halted soon after.

Trading Desk Activity:

• Overall activity level rated 6 out of 10.
• Executed flow had a +102 bps buy skew, matching the 30-day average.
• Long/Short Funds: -115 bps net sellers, driven by utilities/industrials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary.
• Hedge Funds: 1.10% net buyers, driven by demand in real estate, consumer discretionary, information technology, and healthcare.

Derivatives:

• Volatility continues to decrease, with SPX 10-day realized volatility at just 6.5.
• AMZN traded over 1 million call options for the second consecutive day, with interest in July upside ahead of Prime Day.
• The straddle for Friday’s events, including the debate and PCE report, closed at 0.53%.