Romania Economy

Romania’s gdp growth annual decreased to -6.0 by -41.75% on July 2020 from -10.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Romania’s gdp growth annual decreased by -188.23%. Romania’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.30833.Romania’s inflation cpi decreased to 2.1 by -4.55% on November 2020 from 2.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s inflation cpi decreased by -44.74%. Romania’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 2.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.80833.Romania’s unemployment rate icnreased to 5.3 by 3.92% on October 2020 from 5.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s unemployment rate increased by 35.9%. Romania’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 5.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.775.

Romania Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Romania Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Romania’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Romania macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Romania Macro Model

 

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Romania Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual -0.2 -1.4 -0.857143 -1.04762 -1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-01-01
inflation cpi 3.94 3.75 0.0506667 0.515385 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 5.5 5.7 -0.0350877 0 1.0 -1.0 0.725 2021-05-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 101.5 91.3 0.11172 0.481752 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 358742 346624 0.0349601 0.324426 1.0 1.0 0 2019-10-01
government debt to gdp 47.3 35.3 0.339943 2.81452 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 126984 126975 0.0000708801 0.145073 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-05-31
foreign exchange reserves 41757 42781 -0.0239359 0.0369592 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-06-30
gold reserves 103.65 103.6 0.000482625 -0.00048216 -1.0 -1.0 0.4 2020-07-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -1613 -1266 0.274092 0.728832 -1.0 -1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
current account to gdp -4.6 -4.5 0.0222222 -0.661765 -1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 1.25 1.5 -0.166667 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-01-15
central bank balance sheet 230941 233824 -0.0123298 0.0317512 1.0 1.0 0.316667 2021-05-31
banks balance sheet 629010 628231 0.00123999 0.106882 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-05-31
money supply m2 505771 503532 0.00444659 0.135151 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -30344.4 -24469.1 0.240111 -0.174639 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-05-31
government revenues 67011.2 54942.6 0.219658 0.350333 -1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-05-31
fiscal expenditure 97355.6 79411.7 0.22596 0.126922 -1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-05-31

Romania’s gdp growth annual decreased to -6.0 by -41.75% on July 2020 from -10.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Romania’s gdp growth annual decreased by -188.23%. Romania’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.30833.Romania’s inflation cpi decreased to 2.1 by -4.55% on November 2020 from 2.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s inflation cpi decreased by -44.74%. Romania’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 2.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.80833.Romania’s unemployment rate icnreased to 5.3 by 3.92% on October 2020 from 5.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s unemployment rate increased by 35.9%. Romania’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 5.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.775.Romania’s building permits decreased to 4017.0 by -6.34% on October 2020 from 4289.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s building permits increased by 7.52%. Romania’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 4017.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3443.17.Romania’s business confidence icnreased to -8.1 by 10.96% on November 2020 from -7.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s business confidence increased by 3950.0%. Romania’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -8.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.58333.Romania’s consumer confidence icnreased to -26.1 by 135.13% on April 2020 from -11.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s consumer confidence increased by 107.14%. Romania’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -26.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.475.

Romania Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 0.6 2.2 -0.727273 -1.06122 1.0 1.0 0.366667 2021-06-30
ESI - Economic Composite 101.5 91.3 0.11172 0.481752 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector 3.5 -3.6 -1.97222 -1.12915 1.0 1.0 0.35 2021-04-01
Consumer sector -26.1 -11.1 1.35135 1.07143 -1.0 -1.0 0.85 2020-04-01
Construction sector -2.4 -11.1 -0.783784 -0.94015 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Retail sector 9.3 0.9 9.33333 -0.114286 1.0 -1.0 0.666667 2021-04-01
Services sector -5.3 -16.8 -0.684524 -0.853591 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01

Romania’s business confidence icnreased to -8.1 by 10.96% on November 2020 from -7.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s business confidence increased by 3950.0%. Romania’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -8.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.58333.Romania’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 83.1 by -437.0% on January 2021 from 86.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -2025.0%. Romania’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 83.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 87.7583.Romania’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -8.1 by 1096.0% on January 2021 from -7.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Manufacturing sector increased by 395000.0%. Romania’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -8.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.58333.Romania’s Consumer sector icnreased to -26.1 by 13514.0% on January 2021 from -11.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Consumer sector increased by 10714.0%. Romania’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -26.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.475.Romania’s Construction sector icnreased to -15.0 by 3636.0% on January 2021 from -11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Construction sector increased by 40000.0%. Romania’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -15.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.1667.Romania’s Retail sector decreased to -2.3 by -24375.0% on January 2021 from 1.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Retail sector decreased by -13538.0%. Romania’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -2.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.96667.Romania’s Services sector icnreased to -23.6 by 4750.0% on January 2021 from -16.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Services sector decreased by -33137.0%. Romania’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -23.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.6833.

Romania Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -26.1 -11.1 1.35135 1.07143 -1.0 -1.0 0.85 2020-04-30
car registrations 125042 152262 -0.178771 -0.173117 -1.0 -1.0 0.233333 2021-01-01
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -45.4 -21.2 1.14151 0.907563 -1.0 -1.0 0.75 2020-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) -14.7 -0.2 72.5 -13.25 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2020-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 37.7 36.9 0.0216802 0.115385 1.0 1.0 0.683333 2020-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 64.7 18.7 2.45989 3.09494 1.0 1.0 1 2020-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -40.1 -22.7 0.76652 0.677824 -1.0 -1.0 0.983333 2020-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -24.1 -34.7 -0.305476 -0.383632 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2020-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation 9.2 7.6 0.210526 0.957447 1.0 1.0 0.8 2020-04-01

Romania’s consumer confidence icnreased to -26.1 by 135.13% on April 2020 from -11.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s consumer confidence increased by 107.14%. Romania’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -26.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.475.Romania’s car registrations icnreased to 134258.0 by 36.61% on May 2020 from 98279.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Romania’s car registrations decreased by -17.2%. Romania’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 134258.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 148623.0.Romania’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -45.4 by 11415.0% on January 2021 from -21.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 9076.0%. Romania’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -45.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.8917.Romania’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -14.7 by 725000.0% on January 2021 from -0.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -132500.0%. Romania’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -14.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.6.Romania’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) icnreased to 37.7 by 217.0% on January 2021 from 36.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) increased by 1154.0%. Romania’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 37.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 34.9833.Romania’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 64.7 by 24599.0% on January 2021 from 18.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 30949.0%. Romania’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 64.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19.6083.Romania’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -40.1 by 7665.0% on January 2021 from -22.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 6778.0%. Romania’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -40.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.875.Romania’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased to -24.1 by -3055.0% on January 2021 from -34.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased by -3836.0%. Romania’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -24.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -33.925.Romania’s Consumer – Households Financial situation icnreased to 9.2 by 2105.0% on January 2021 from 7.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Consumer – Households Financial situation increased by 9574.0%. Romania’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 9.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.35.

Romania Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector 3.5 -3.6 -1.97222 -1.12915 1.0 1.0 0.35 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -12.3 -17.1 -0.280702 -0.526923 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 12.4 7.7 0.61039 12.7778 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 4.5 -4.9 -1.91837 -1.18072 1.0 1.0 0.183333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -12.9 -18.3 -0.295082 -0.530909 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -4.5 -5.8 -0.224138 -0.4 1.0 1.0 0.508333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 18.2 0.6 29.3333 -1.28981 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
industrial production 30.3 64.7 -0.531685 -2.09783 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-05-31
industrial production mom -8.5 3.7 -3.2973 -1.54487 -1.0 -1.0 0.316667 2021-05-31
capacity utilization 73.8 71.5 0.0321678 -0.0238095 1.0 -1.0 0.466667 2020-08-01

Romania’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -8.1 by 1096.0% on January 2021 from -7.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Manufacturing sector increased by 395000.0%. Romania’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -8.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.58333.Romania’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased to -21.4 by -489.0% on January 2021 from -22.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 21940.0%. Romania’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -21.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.4917.Romania’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) icnreased to 3.3 by 3750.0% on January 2021 from 2.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -4211.0%. Romania’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 3.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.63333.Romania’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to -2.5 by -4898.0% on January 2021 from -4.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) increased by 21250.0%. Romania’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of -2.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.6417.Romania’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books On a year on year basis Romania’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 29524.0%. Romania’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -24.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.3.Romania’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) icnreased to -6.8 by 1930.0% on January 2021 from -5.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) increased by 58000.0%. Romania’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of -6.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.41667.Romania’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) icnreased to -9.6 by 8824.0% on January 2021 from -5.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -28462.0%. Romania’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -9.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.69167.Romania’s industrial production decreased to 1.2 by -142.86% on October 2020 from -2.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s industrial production decreased by -115.79%. Romania’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of 1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.6333.Romania’s industrial production mom icnreased to 2.1 by 40.0% on October 2020 from 1.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s industrial production mom decreased by -200.0%. Romania’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 2.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.783333.Romania’s capacity utilization icnreased to 69.3 by 3.59% on June 2020 from 66.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Romania’s capacity utilization decreased by -9.65%. Romania’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 69.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 73.9333.

Romania Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector -5.3 -16.8 -0.684524 -0.853591 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 3.1 -11.1 -1.27928 -1.05741 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 1.2 -4 -1.3 -1.1 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) -9.9 -17.8 -0.44382 -0.613281 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) -9.1 -21.3 -0.57277 -0.686207 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) -12.8 -17 -0.247059 0.0322581 1.0 -1.0 0.55 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 4.4 -4.5 -1.97778 -1.14379 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01

Romania’s Services sector icnreased to -23.6 by 4750.0% on January 2021 from -16.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Services sector decreased by -33137.0%. Romania’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -23.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.6833.Romania’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -21.8 by 10000.0% on January 2021 from -10.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -30000.0%. Romania’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -21.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.725.Romania’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -13.3 by 391.0% on January 2021 from -12.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -35577.0%. Romania’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -13.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.21667.Romania’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -24.2 by 3011.0% on January 2021 from -18.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -39512.0%. Romania’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -24.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.0333.Romania’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -24.7 by 3351.0% on January 2021 from -18.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -31858.0%. Romania’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -24.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -18.2667.Romania’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) icnreased to -11.6 by 4872.0% on January 2021 from -7.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -92857.0%. Romania’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -11.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.35.Romania’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) icnreased to -17.0 by 968.0% on January 2021 from -15.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -66667.0%. Romania’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -17.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.36667.

Romania Retail Sector

 

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector 9.3 0.9 9.33333 -0.114286 1.0 -1.0 0.666667 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) 17.5 3.8 3.60526 -1.49716 1.0 1.0 0.316667 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 26.2 25.8 0.0155039 1.01538 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) 7.9 4.9 0.612245 -1.49375 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels -0.5 3.7 -1.13514 -1.35714 -1.0 -1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) 19.5 1.6 11.1875 -1.34091 1.0 1.0 0.233333 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) 17.8 14.8 0.202703 -1.88119 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
retail sales 22 39.7 -0.445844 -7.11111 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-05-31
retail sales MoM 2.4 2.1 0.142857 -0.860465 1.0 -1.0 0.533333 2021-05-31

Romania’s Retail sector decreased to -2.3 by -24375.0% on January 2021 from 1.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Retail sector decreased by -13538.0%. Romania’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -2.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.96667.Romania’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -2.2 by -12444.0% on January 2021 from 9.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -22941.0%. Romania’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -2.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.48333.Romania’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 11.5 by -1901.0% on January 2021 from 14.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -3235.0%. Romania’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 11.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18.6917.Romania’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -6.8 by -36154.0% on January 2021 from 2.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -15037.0%. Romania’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -6.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.85833.Romania’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased to 1.5 by -26667.0% on January 2021 from -0.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -3478.0%. Romania’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.14167.Romania’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) On a year on year basis Romania’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -8313.0%. Romania’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 1.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.11667.Romania’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 5.3 by -6319.0% on January 2021 from 14.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -5726.0%. Romania’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 5.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.46667.Romania’s retail sales icnreased to 5.6 by 16.67% on October 2020 from 4.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s retail sales decreased by -12.5%. Romania’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 5.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.675.Romania’s retail sales MoM decreased to 1.7 by -206.25% on September 2020 from -1.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s retail sales MoM increased by 88.89%. Romania’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of 1.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.65.

Romania Construction Sector

 

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector -2.4 -11.1 -0.783784 -0.94015 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -13 -20.1 -0.353234 -0.653333 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 18.3 9 1.03333 -2.83 1.0 1.0 0.116667 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 8.2 -2.2 -4.72727 -1.19204 1.0 1.0 0.333333 2021-04-01
building permits 4660 4681 -0.00448622 0.521881 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) 4.6 -1.1 -5.18182 -1.2233 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 56.4 54.1 0.0425139 0.273138 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 22.5 25.5 -0.117647 -0.0546218 -1.0 -1.0 0.75 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 10.9 7.9 0.379747 1.09615 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 12.4 11 0.127273 -0.350785 1.0 -1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 0.5 0.5 0 -0.444444 -1.0 -1.0 0.158333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 8.7 12.2 -0.286885 -0.298387 -1.0 -1.0 0.183333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 6.4 12.8 -0.5 -0.741935 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01

Romania’s Construction sector icnreased to -15.0 by 3636.0% on January 2021 from -11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Construction sector increased by 40000.0%. Romania’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -15.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.1667.Romania’s Construction – Current Order Books icnreased to -26.0 by 833.0% on January 2021 from -24.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 11667.0%. Romania’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -26.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.0.Romania’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to 6.0 by -1429.0% on January 2021 from 7.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -4545.0%. Romania’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.08333.Romania’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to -3.0 by -25000.0% on January 2021 from 2.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -16000.0%. Romania’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.33333.Romania’s building permits decreased to 4017.0 by -6.34% on October 2020 from 4289.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s building permits increased by 7.52%. Romania’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 4017.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3443.17.Romania’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) On a year on year basis Romania’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -28000.0%. Romania’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.1667.Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased to 50.0 by -909.0% on January 2021 from 55.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) decreased by -1935.0%. Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 50.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 52.9167.Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) On a year on year basis Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 8000.0%. Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 27.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 23.0.Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) icnreased to 11.0 by 2222.0% on January 2021 from 9.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -833.0%. Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.75.Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) On a year on year basis Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -5600.0%. Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 16.8333.Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.0.Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) icnreased to 12.0 by 2000.0% on January 2021 from 10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 7143.0%. Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 12.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.91667.Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 20.0 by 4286.0% on January 2021 from 14.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 90000.0%. Romania’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 20.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.9167.

Romania GDP

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 43635 42537.2 0.025808 0.081426 1.0 1.0 0.316667 2021-01-01
gdp growth annual -0.2 -1.4 -0.857143 -1.04762 -1.0 -1.0 0.283333 2021-01-01
gdp 248.72 250.08 -0.00543826 0.164365 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
gdp growth 2.9 4.6 -0.369565 4.8 1.0 1.0 0.933333 2021-01-01

Romania’s Real GDP icnreased to 40330.2 by 5.17% on May 2020 from 38348.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Romania’s Real GDP increased by 1.06%. Romania’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 40330.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 41569.3.Romania’s gdp growth annual decreased to -6.0 by -41.75% on July 2020 from -10.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Romania’s gdp growth annual decreased by -188.23%. Romania’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.30833.Romania’s gdp icnreased to 250.08 by 3.5% on January 2019 from 241.63 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Romania’s gdp increased by 42.15%. Romania’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 250.08 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 197.413.Romania’s gdp growth decreased to 5.6 by -145.9% on July 2020 from -12.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Romania’s gdp growth increased by 250.0%. Romania’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 5.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.358333.

Romania inflation

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 3.94 3.75 0.0506667 0.515385 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-06-30
core inflation rate 2.4 2.5 -0.04 0.0434783 1.0 1.0 0.6 2021-06-30
consumer price index cpi 100.3 103.8 -0.0337187 0.00219824 -1.0 1.0 0.683333 2021-06-30
Producer Price Index 120.4 118 0.020339 0.103575 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
PPI Index 10.39 7.89 0.316857 -6.195 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-05-31

Romania’s inflation cpi decreased to 2.1 by -4.55% on November 2020 from 2.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s inflation cpi decreased by -44.74%. Romania’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 2.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.80833.Romania’s core inflation rate decreased to 2.1 by -4.55% on November 2020 from 2.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s core inflation rate decreased by -27.59%. Romania’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 2.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.525.Romania’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 99.8 by 1.53% on November 2020 from 98.3 in the previous Monthly. Romania’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 99.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 100.378.Romania’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 110.4 by 0.27% on October 2020 from 110.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s Producer Price Index decreased by -1.08%. Romania’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 110.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 110.967.Romania’s PPI Index icnreased to -1.06 by 16.48% on October 2020 from -0.91 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s PPI Index decreased by -146.09%. Romania’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -1.06 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.649167.

Romania Government Policy

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -9.2 -4.4 1.09091 0.703704 -1.0 -1.0 0 2020-01-31
Government budget -30344.4 -24469.1 0.240111 -0.174639 1.0 1.0 0.166667 2021-05-31
government revenues 67011.2 54942.6 0.219658 0.350333 -1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-05-31
fiscal expenditure 97355.6 79411.7 0.22596 0.126922 -1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-05-31

 

Romania’s Government budget icnreased to -76512.0 by 9.35% on October 2020 from -69972.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s Government budget increased by 181.58%. Romania’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -76512.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -39577.5.Romania’s government revenues icnreased to 116120.0 by 20.54% on October 2020 from 96335.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s government revenues decreased by -6.93%. Romania’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 116120.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 73034.6.Romania’s fiscal expenditure icnreased to 192632.0 by 15.83% on October 2020 from 166307.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s fiscal expenditure increased by 26.78%. Romania’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 192632.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 112612.0.

Romania Monetary Policy

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 1.25 1.5 -0.166667 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-01-15
central bank balance sheet 230941 233824 -0.0123298 0.0317512 1.0 1.0 0.316667 2021-05-31
banks balance sheet 629010 628231 0.00123999 0.106882 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-05-31
money supply m0 92505.9 92643.9 -0.00148957 0.119616 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-05-31
money supply m1 350871 348797 0.00594615 0.180442 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-05-31
money supply m2 505771 503532 0.00444659 0.135151 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
money supply m3 505771 503532 0.00444659 0.135151 1.0 1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31

 

Romania’s interest rate decreased to 1.5 by -14.29% on June 2020 from 1.75 in the previous Daily. On a year on year basis Romania’s interest rate decreased by -40.0%. Romania’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.3125.Romania’s central bank balance sheet decreased to 209188.0 by -1.43% on November 2020 from 212231.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s central bank balance sheet increased by 5.57%. Romania’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 209188.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 214598.0.Romania’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 598759.0 by 2.09% on November 2020 from 586484.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s banks balance sheet increased by 14.28%. Romania’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 598759.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 562929.0.Romania’s money supply m2 icnreased to 477296.0 by 1.71% on November 2020 from 469280.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s money supply m2 increased by 15.87%. Romania’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 477296.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 444541.0.

Romania Employment

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 113.2 102.8 0.101167 0.899329 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 5.5 5.7 -0.0350877 0 1.0 -1.0 0.725 2021-05-31
youth unemployment rate 21.3 21.3 0 0.224138 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-03-31
long term unemployment rate 2 1.7 0.176471 0.0526316 1.0 1.0 0.766667 2021-01-01

Romania’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 93.2 by -302.0% on January 2021 from 96.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Romania’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -1354.0%. Romania’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 93.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 94.8417.Romania’s unemployment rate icnreased to 5.3 by 3.92% on October 2020 from 5.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s unemployment rate increased by 35.9%. Romania’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 5.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.775.Romania’s youth unemployment rate On a year on year basis Romania’s youth unemployment rate increased by 3.05%. Romania’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 16.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17.375.Romania’s long term unemployment rate decreased to 1.2 by -20.0% on February 2020 from 1.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Romania’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -40.0%. Romania’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.70833.

Romania Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -1613 -1266 0.274092 0.728832 -1.0 -1.0 0.783333 2021-05-31
current account to gdp -4.6 -4.5 0.0222222 -0.661765 -1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
exports 5959 6249.4 -0.0464685 0.585473 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
imports 7731.8 7979.4 -0.0310299 0.541735 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
balance of trade -1772.8 -1730 0.0247399 0.410903 -1.0 -1.0 0.883333 2021-05-31

 

Romania’s current account icnreased to -1438.0 by 14.67% on September 2020 from -1254.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s current account increased by 70.58%. Romania’s current account trend is down since the current value of -1438.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -856.167.Romania’s current account to gdp icnreased to -4.6 by 2.22% on January 2019 from -4.5 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Romania’s current account to gdp decreased by -66.18%. Romania’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of -4.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.03333.Romania’s exports icnreased to 6261.3 by 3.14% on October 2020 from 6070.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s exports decreased by -1.05%. Romania’s exports trend is down since the current value of 6261.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5156.09.Romania’s imports icnreased to 7611.8 by 24.54% on September 2020 from 6112.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s imports increased by 4.44%. Romania’s imports trend is down since the current value of 7611.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6680.88.Romania’s balance of trade icnreased to -1541.0 by 1.79% on September 2020 from -1513.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s balance of trade increased by 29.7%. Romania’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -1541.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1522.45.

Romania Reserves

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 41757 42781 -0.0239359 0.0369592 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-06-30
gold reserves 103.65 103.6 0.000482625 -0.00048216 -1.0 -1.0 0.4 2020-07-01

Romania’s foreign exchange reserves decreased to 38446.9 by -1.79% on November 2020 from 39146.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 0.57%. Romania’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 38446.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 39633.8.Romania’s gold reserves icnreased to 103.65 by 0.05% on July 2020 from 103.6 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Romania’s gold reserves decreased by -0.05%. Romania’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 103.65 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 103.671.Romania’s government debt icnreased to 358742.0 by 3.5% on October 2019 from 346624.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Romania’s government debt increased by 32.44%. Romania’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 358742.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 305104.0.Romania’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 35.2 by 1.44% on January 2019 from 34.7 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Romania’s government debt to gdp increased by 193.33%. Romania’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 35.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 32.6417.Romania’s external debt icnreased to 118991.0 by 1.51% on October 2020 from 117224.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s external debt increased by 9.95%. Romania’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 118991.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 111384.0.

Romania Debt

 

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 358742 346624 0.0349601 0.324426 1.0 1.0 0 2019-10-01
government debt to gdp 47.3 35.3 0.339943 2.81452 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
external debt 126984 126975 0.0000708801 0.145073 1.0 1.0 0.95 2021-05-31

Romania’s government debt icnreased to 358742.0 by 3.5% on October 2019 from 346624.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Romania’s government debt increased by 32.44%. Romania’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 358742.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 305104.0.Romania’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 35.2 by 1.44% on January 2019 from 34.7 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Romania’s government debt to gdp increased by 193.33%. Romania’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 35.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 32.6417.Romania’s external debt icnreased to 118991.0 by 1.51% on October 2020 from 117224.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s external debt increased by 9.95%. Romania’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 118991.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 111384.0.

Romania Banking activity

 

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 1.38 1.39 -0.00719424 -0.08 -1.0 -1.0 0.183333 2021-06-02
deposit interest rate 0.75 1 -0.25 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-01-31
lending rate 1.75 2 -0.125 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-10-31
cash reserve ratio 5 6 -0.166667 -0.375 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-11-30

 

Romania’s interbank rate icnreased to 2.88 by 0.35% on September 2019 from 2.88 in the previous Daily. On a year on year basis Romania’s interbank rate increased by 0.69%. Romania’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of 2.88 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.88667.Romania’s deposit interest rate Romania’s deposit interest rate trend is down since the current value of 1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.5.Romania’s lending rate On a year on year basis Romania’s lending rate decreased by -42.86%. Romania’s lending rate trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.77083.Romania’s cash reserve ratio decreased to 5.0 by -16.67% on November 2020 from 6.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Romania’s cash reserve ratio decreased by -37.5%. Romania’s cash reserve ratio trend is down since the current value of 5.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.25.

Romania macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Romania economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Romania Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Romania Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Romania’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
Read more on how to analyze a country’s macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world.Click here to learn more.

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