Serbia Economy

Serbia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -1.4 by -77.78% on July 2020 from -6.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -163.64%. Serbia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -1.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.85833.Serbia’s inflation cpi decreased to 1.7 by -5.56% on October 2020 from 1.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s inflation cpi increased by 70.0%. Serbia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 1.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.575.Serbia’s unemployment rate icnreased to 9.0 by 23.29% on May 2020 from 7.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s unemployment rate decreased by -30.23%. Serbia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.1.

Serbia Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Serbia Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Serbia’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Serbia macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Serbia Macro Model

 

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Serbia Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 1.7 -1.1 -2.54545 -0.66 -1.0 -1.0 0.45 2021-01-01
inflation cpi 3.3 3.6 -0.0833333 1.0625 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-06-30
unemployment rate 12.8 10.7 0.196262 -0.2 1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-01
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 104.4 90.6 0.152318 0.8125 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite 104.4 90.6 0.152318 0.8125 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 3191560 3135700 0.0178142 0.121242 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-31
government debt to gdp 52 53.7 -0.0316574 0.863799 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
external debt 30812.8 30718.5 0.00306981 0.207095 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2020-10-01
foreign exchange reserves 14091.8 14181.5 -0.00632514 0.00655714 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-06-30
gold reserves 36.04 35.47 0.0160699 0.857732 1.0 1.0 1 2021-01-01
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -169.2 -210.4 -0.195817 2.84545 -1.0 -1.0 0.933333 2021-05-31
current account to gdp -6.9 -4.8 0.4375 -0.629032 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 1 1 0 -0.555556 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-05-13
money supply m2 1578900 1547940 0.0200008 0.16432 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-05-31
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update

Serbia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -1.4 by -77.78% on July 2020 from -6.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -163.64%. Serbia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -1.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.85833.Serbia’s inflation cpi decreased to 1.7 by -5.56% on October 2020 from 1.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s inflation cpi increased by 70.0%. Serbia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 1.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.575.Serbia’s unemployment rate icnreased to 9.0 by 23.29% on May 2020 from 7.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s unemployment rate decreased by -30.23%. Serbia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.1.

Serbia Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 104.4 90.6 0.152318 0.8125 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
ESI - Economic Composite 104.4 90.6 0.152318 0.8125 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Manufacturing sector 3.6 -1.6 -3.25 -1.18462 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Consumer sector 2.9 1.4 1.07143 0.208333 -1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-04-01
Construction sector -1.8 -6.2 -0.709677 -0.826923 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Retail sector 5.2 0.3 16.3333 -1.2905 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Services sector 5.3 -10 -1.53 -1.12156 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01

Serbia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 84.5 by -991.0% on January 2021 from 93.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -2469.0%. Serbia’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 84.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 91.325.Serbia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 84.5 by -991.0% on January 2021 from 93.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -2469.0%. Serbia’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 84.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 91.325.Serbia’s Manufacturing sector decreased to -2.7 by -32500.0% on January 2021 from 1.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -13913.0%. Serbia’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -2.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.641667.Serbia’s Consumer sector decreased to 4.0 by -4872.0% on January 2021 from 7.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Consumer sector decreased by -5294.0%. Serbia’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of 4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.45.Serbia’s Construction sector icnreased to -6.0 by 2000.0% on January 2021 from -5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Construction sector decreased by -18571.0%. Serbia’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.08333.Serbia’s Retail sector decreased to -4.7 by -37647.0% on January 2021 from 1.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Retail sector decreased by -12956.0%. Serbia’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -4.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.525.Serbia’s Services sector icnreased to -15.5 by 11528.0% on January 2021 from -7.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Services sector decreased by -22917.0%. Serbia’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -15.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.3167.

Serbia Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) 18 11.2 0.607143 0.47541 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) 8.4 5.3 0.584906 0.217391 -1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-04-01
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 13.7 8.2 0.670732 -18.125 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) -8 -1.5 4.33333 0.230769 -1.0 -1.0 0.583333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -3.8 -1.6 1.375 -0.506494 -1.0 1.0 0.283333 2021-04-01
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -59.7 -64.4 -0.0729814 -0.0132231 -1.0 1.0 0.566667 2021-04-01
Consumer - Households Financial situation -11 -9 0.222222 -0.179104 -1.0 1.0 0.4 2021-04-01

Serbia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) decreased to 13.6 by -2766.0% on January 2021 from 18.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) decreased by -5358.0%. Serbia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 13.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 22.6083.Serbia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased to 10.4 by -2061.0% on January 2021 from 13.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -4976.0%. Serbia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 10.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.025.Serbia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) icnreased to -4.5 by 465.0% on January 2021 from -4.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -28750.0%. Serbia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -4.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.358333.Serbia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased to -4.0 by -6040.0% on January 2021 from -10.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased by -8524.0%. Serbia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.225.Serbia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) decreased to -2.0 by -110000.0% on January 2021 from 0.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) decreased by -7778.0%. Serbia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -3.95.Serbia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased to -55.6 by -496.0% on January 2021 from -58.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) decreased by -1146.0%. Serbia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -55.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -58.7917.Serbia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to -8.9 by -918.0% on January 2021 from -9.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased by -4472.0%. Serbia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of -8.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.325.

Serbia Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Manufacturing sector 3.6 -1.6 -3.25 -1.18462 1.0 1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Order Books -17.6 -23.2 -0.241379 -0.515152 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 18.8 15.8 0.189873 2.61538 1.0 1.0 0.9 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 1.4 -1.7 -1.82353 -1.08284 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -28.7 -32.6 -0.119632 -0.303398 1.0 1.0 0.133333 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -4.1 -0.9 3.55556 -4.72727 -1.0 -1.0 0.15 2021-04-01
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 24.5 17.5 0.4 -2.16667 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
industrial production 9.4 33.9 -0.722714 -2.01075 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-05-31

Serbia’s Manufacturing sector decreased to -2.7 by -32500.0% on January 2021 from 1.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -13913.0%. Serbia’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -2.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.641667.Serbia’s Manufacturing – Order Books icnreased to -28.1 by 766.0% on January 2021 from -26.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 3318.0%. Serbia’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -28.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -26.8167.Serbia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased to 2.9 by -333.0% on January 2021 from 3.0 in the previous . Serbia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 2.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.65833.Serbia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to -2.5 by -93333.0% on January 2021 from 0.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -12809.0%. Serbia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of -2.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.73333.Serbia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books decreased to -32.3 by -798.0% on January 2021 from -35.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 386.0%. Serbia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -32.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -33.7.Serbia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased to 1.5 by -14286.0% on January 2021 from -3.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -12885.0%. Serbia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of 1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.666667.Serbia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to 21.6 by -1756.0% on January 2021 from 26.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -4114.0%. Serbia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 21.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 24.2417.Serbia’s industrial production decreased to -1.4 by -173.68% on November 2020 from 1.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s industrial production decreased by -227.27%. Serbia’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -1.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.708333.

Serbia Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services sector 5.3 -10 -1.53 -1.12156 1.0 1.0 0.216667 2021-04-01
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 37.8 7.3 4.17808 -1.93564 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 6.7 2.4 1.79167 -5.46667 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) -10.3 -19.5 -0.471795 -0.770089 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-04-01
Services - Demand (past 3 months) -11.7 -17.7 -0.338983 -0.743982 1.0 1.0 0.25 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (past 3 months) 3.5 1.4 1.5 -3.69231 1.0 1.0 0.0666667 2021-04-01
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 15.3 4.2 2.64286 -8.65 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01

Serbia’s Services sector icnreased to -15.5 by 11528.0% on January 2021 from -7.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Services sector decreased by -22917.0%. Serbia’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -15.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.3167.Serbia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 5.8 by -4476.0% on January 2021 from 10.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -8092.0%. Serbia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 5.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14.5083.Serbia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -0.7 by -15833.0% on January 2021 from 1.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -10603.0%. Serbia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.34167.Serbia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -25.6 by 6000.0% on January 2021 from -16.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) increased by 274444.0%. Serbia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -25.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -23.8667.Serbia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -26.9 by 6708.0% on January 2021 from -16.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -52698.0%. Serbia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -26.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.6167.Serbia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased to 4.0 by -5238.0% on January 2021 from 8.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -5000.0%. Serbia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.16667.Serbia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) icnreased to 9.0 by 1250.0% on January 2021 from 8.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -5263.0%. Serbia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.3083.

Serbia Retail Sector

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector 5.2 0.3 16.3333 -1.2905 1.0 1.0 0.1 2021-04-01
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) 17.4 8.9 0.955056 -1.52096 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-01
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 25.8 17.9 0.441341 15.125 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) -12.9 -11 0.172727 -0.14 1.0 1.0 0.483333 2021-04-01
Retail - Stock Levels 8.4 7.2 0.166667 0.953488 1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-04-01
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) 36.9 19.1 0.931937 -2.0758 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) 14 7.2 0.944444 -10.3333 1.0 1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01
retail sales 12 42 -0.714286 1.55319 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-05-31
retail sales MoM -1.3 -17.6 -0.926136 0.444444 -1.0 -1.0 0.816667 2021-02-28

Serbia’s Retail sector decreased to -4.7 by -37647.0% on January 2021 from 1.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Retail sector decreased by -12956.0%. Serbia’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -4.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.525.Serbia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -1.8 by -12535.0% on January 2021 from 7.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -10657.0%. Serbia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -1.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.88333.Serbia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 4.8 by -1864.0% on January 2021 from 5.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -1273.0%. Serbia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 4.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.125.Serbia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -12.3 by 20750.0% on January 2021 from -4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -17640.0%. Serbia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -12.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.60833.Serbia’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased to 4.4 by -5000.0% on January 2021 from 8.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -2281.0%. Serbia’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 4.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.425.Serbia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 2.6 by -8547.0% on January 2021 from 17.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -9299.0%. Serbia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 2.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20.5833.Serbia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 8.8 by -4667.0% on January 2021 from 16.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -5028.0%. Serbia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 8.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.0083.Serbia’s retail sales decreased to 1.1 by -82.54% on November 2020 from 6.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s retail sales decreased by -90.18%. Serbia’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.3.Serbia’s retail sales MoM decreased to -2.0 by -186.96% on September 2020 from 2.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s retail sales MoM decreased by -60.0%. Serbia’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of -2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.31667.

Serbia Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction sector -1.8 -6.2 -0.709677 -0.826923 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-01
Construction - Current Order Books -18.8 -19.3 -0.0259067 -0.2 1.0 1.0 0.566667 2021-04-01
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 17.9 12 0.491667 0.642202 1.0 1.0 0.7 2021-04-01
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 15.2 6.9 1.2029 4.42857 1.0 1.0 0.916667 2021-04-01
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) -1.6 -6.9 -0.768116 -0.957105 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 38.9 35.5 0.0957747 2.112 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 14.6 18.7 -0.219251 0.825 -1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 9.2 4 1.3 0.314286 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 16.9 17.3 -0.0231214 0.330709 1.0 1.0 0.383333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 2.8 0.7 3 0.75 1.0 1.0 0.733333 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 12.2 11.5 0.0608696 0.311828 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 7.4 13.3 -0.443609 -0.834821 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-01

Serbia’s Construction sector icnreased to -6.0 by 2000.0% on January 2021 from -5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Construction sector decreased by -18571.0%. Serbia’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.08333.Serbia’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased to -22.0 by -1538.0% on January 2021 from -26.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 21429.0%. Serbia’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -22.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -17.75.Serbia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months icnreased to 6.0 by 5000.0% on January 2021 from 4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -5000.0%. Serbia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.58333.Serbia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to 10.0 by -3750.0% on January 2021 from 16.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -5000.0%. Serbia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.5.Serbia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -20.0 by 6667.0% on January 2021 from -12.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -24286.0%. Serbia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -20.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -13.9167.Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) icnreased to 34.0 by 1333.0% on January 2021 from 30.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) increased by 1333.0%. Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 34.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 31.1667.Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) icnreased to 18.0 by 2000.0% on January 2021 from 15.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 6364.0%. Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 18.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.75.Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) icnreased to 10.0 by 15000.0% on January 2021 from 4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -909.0%. Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.58333.Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased to 15.0 by -2500.0% on January 2021 from 20.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -5000.0%. Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 15.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 19.5.Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased to 1.0 by -5000.0% on January 2021 from 2.0 in the previous . Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.25.Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased to 11.0 by -2143.0% on January 2021 from 14.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased by -2143.0%. Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.8333.Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) icnreased to 12.0 by 2000.0% on January 2021 from 10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) increased by 50000.0%. Serbia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 12.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14.0.

Serbia GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 1220110 1311670 -0.0698041 0.0982582 -1.0 1.0 0.666667 2021-03-31
gdp growth annual 1.7 -1.1 -2.54545 -0.66 -1.0 -1.0 0.45 2021-01-01
gdp 52.96 51.48 0.028749 0.0147538 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
gdp growth 2.2 7.2 -0.694444 3.4 1.0 1.0 0.95 2020-10-01

Serbia’s Real GDP decreased to 893373.0 by -4.88% on April 2020 from 939206.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s Real GDP increased by 1.15%. Serbia’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 893373.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 943642.0.Serbia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -1.4 by -77.78% on July 2020 from -6.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -163.64%. Serbia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -1.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.85833.Serbia’s gdp icnreased to 51.41 by 1.6% on January 2019 from 50.6 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s gdp increased by 19.09%. Serbia’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 51.41 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.1317.Serbia’s gdp growth decreased to 7.4 by -179.57% on July 2020 from -9.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s gdp growth increased by 572.73%. Serbia’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 7.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.683333.

Serbia inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 3.3 3.6 -0.0833333 1.0625 1.0 1.0 0.816667 2021-06-30
consumer price index cpi 208.1 207.5 0.00289157 0.0327543 1.0 1.0 0.916667 2021-06-30

Serbia’s inflation cpi decreased to 1.7 by -5.56% on October 2020 from 1.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s inflation cpi increased by 70.0%. Serbia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 1.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.575.Serbia’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 201.0 by 0.05% on November 2020 from 200.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s consumer price index cpi increased by 1.72%. Serbia’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 201.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 200.725.

Serbia Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget 0.2 0.6 -0.666667 -1.11111 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31

Serbia Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 1 1 0 -0.555556 -1.0 -1.0 0.1 2021-05-13
money supply m0 263939 266242 -0.00865003 0.062659 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-05-31
money supply m1 1240230 1204810 0.0293988 0.165509 1.0 1.0 0.45 2021-05-31
money supply m2 1578900 1547940 0.0200008 0.16432 1.0 1.0 0.583333 2021-05-31
money supply m3 3450630 3397960 0.0155005 0.136893 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-05-31

Serbia’s interest rate decreased to 1.0 by -20.0% on December 2020 from 1.25 in the previous Daily. On a year on year basis Serbia’s interest rate decreased by -63.64%. Serbia’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.04167.Serbia’s money supply m2 decreased to 1444530.0 by -0.28% on November 2020 from 1448620.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s money supply m2 increased by 30.57%. Serbia’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 1444530.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1324080.0.

Serbia Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 109.9 98.2 0.119145 0.280886 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
EEI - Employment Composite 109.9 98.2 0.119145 0.280886 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
unemployment rate 12.8 10.7 0.196262 -0.2 1.0 -1.0 0 2021-01-01
youth unemployment rate 32.4 26.5 0.222642 -0.027027 1.0 -1.0 0 2020-10-01

Serbia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 105.6 by -294.0% on January 2021 from 108.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -769.0%. Serbia’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 105.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 106.808.Serbia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased to 105.6 by -294.0% on January 2021 from 108.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Serbia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -769.0%. Serbia’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 105.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 106.808.Serbia’s unemployment rate icnreased to 9.0 by 23.29% on May 2020 from 7.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s unemployment rate decreased by -30.23%. Serbia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.1.Serbia’s youth unemployment rate On a year on year basis Serbia’s youth unemployment rate decreased by -20.42%. Serbia’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 26.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 27.4.

Serbia Trade & Capital Flows

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account -169.2 -210.4 -0.195817 2.84545 -1.0 -1.0 0.933333 2021-05-31
current account to gdp -6.9 -4.8 0.4375 -0.629032 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
exports 2013.5 2091.6 -0.0373398 0.581821 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
imports 2742.8 2767.9 -0.00906825 0.661497 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
balance of trade -729.3 -676.3 0.0783676 0.929876 -1.0 -1.0 1 2021-05-31

Serbia’s current account decreased to 22.9 by -111.07% on October 2020 from -206.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s current account decreased by -107.38%. Serbia’s current account trend is down since the current value of 22.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -223.35.Serbia’s current account to gdp icnreased to -6.9 by 43.75% on January 2019 from -4.8 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s current account to gdp decreased by -62.9%. Serbia’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of -6.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.50833.Serbia’s exports decreased to 1899.6 by -2.31% on November 2020 from 1944.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s exports increased by 9.18%. Serbia’s exports trend is down since the current value of 1899.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1583.97.Serbia’s imports icnreased to 2606.1 by 6.15% on November 2020 from 2455.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s imports increased by 12.61%. Serbia’s imports trend is down since the current value of 2606.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2178.49.Serbia’s balance of trade icnreased to -706.6 by 38.41% on November 2020 from -510.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s balance of trade increased by 22.99%. Serbia’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -706.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -594.55.

Serbia Reserves

 

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 14091.8 14181.5 -0.00632514 0.00655714 1.0 1.0 0.3 2021-06-30
gold reserves 36.04 35.47 0.0160699 0.857732 1.0 1.0 1 2021-01-01

Serbia’s foreign exchange reserves decreased to 12800.0 by -2.29% on November 2020 from 13100.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s foreign exchange reserves decreased by -4.94%. Serbia’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 12800.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13384.5.Serbia’s gold reserves icnreased to 31.93 by 2.01% on May 2020 from 31.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s gold reserves increased by 66.82%. Serbia’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 31.93 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 22.9792.Serbia’s government debt icnreased to 3137500.0 by 0.3% on October 2020 from 3128190.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s government debt increased by 11.33%. Serbia’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 3137500.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2994200.0.Serbia’s government debt to gdp decreased to 52.0 by -3.17% on January 2019 from 53.7 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s government debt to gdp increased by 86.38%. Serbia’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 52.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 51.375.Serbia’s external debt icnreased to 28417.9 by 0.13% on October 2019 from 28381.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s external debt increased by 7.26%. Serbia’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 28417.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 26532.0.

Serbia Debt

 

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 3191560 3135700 0.0178142 0.121242 1.0 1.0 0 2021-01-31
government debt to gdp 52 53.7 -0.0316574 0.863799 1.0 1.0 0 2019-01-31
external debt 30812.8 30718.5 0.00306981 0.207095 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2020-10-01

Serbia’s government debt icnreased to 3137500.0 by 0.3% on October 2020 from 3128190.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s government debt increased by 11.33%. Serbia’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 3137500.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2994200.0.Serbia’s government debt to gdp decreased to 52.0 by -3.17% on January 2019 from 53.7 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s government debt to gdp increased by 86.38%. Serbia’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 52.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 51.375.Serbia’s external debt icnreased to 28417.9 by 0.13% on October 2019 from 28381.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s external debt increased by 7.26%. Serbia’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 28417.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 26532.0.

Serbia Banking activity

 

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 0.88 0.88 0 0 1.0 -1.0 0.675 2021-06-02
deposit interest rate 0.1 0.1 0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 0.025 2021-02-28
loans to private sector 1254460 1259580 -0.00406485 0.0318235 1.0 1.0 0.333333 2021-05-31
lending rate 1.9 1.9 0 -0.457143 -1.0 -1.0 0.0416667 2021-01-31

Serbia’s interbank rate decreased to 1.99 by -0.5% on September 2019 from 2.42 in the previous Daily. On a year on year basis Serbia’s interbank rate decreased by -0.5%. Serbia’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of 1.99 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.9875.Serbia’s deposit interest rate decreased to 1.5 by -14.29% on August 2019 from 1.75 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s deposit interest rate decreased by -14.29%. Serbia’s deposit interest rate trend is down since the current value of 1.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.72917.Serbia’s loans to private sector icnreased to 1257330.0 by 0.02% on November 2020 from 1257140.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Serbia’s loans to private sector increased by 9.85%. Serbia’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 1257330.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1219630.0.Serbia’s lending rate On a year on year basis Serbia’s lending rate decreased by -40.0%. Serbia’s lending rate trend is down since the current value of 2.25 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.0.

Serbia macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Serbia economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Serbia Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Serbia Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Serbia’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
Read more on how to analyze a country’s macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world.Click here to learn more.

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