Slovenia Economy

Slovenia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -2.6 by -80.0% on July 2020 from -13.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -160.47%. Slovenia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -2.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.29167.Slovenia’s inflation cpi icnreased to -1.1 by 22.22% on December 2020 from -0.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s inflation cpi decreased by -157.9%. Slovenia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.0316667.Slovenia’s unemployment rate decreased to 8.6 by -5.49% on September 2020 from 9.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s unemployment rate increased by 19.44%. Slovenia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 8.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.425.

Slovenia Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Slovenia Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Slovenia’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Slovenia macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Slovenia Macro Model

 

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Slovenia Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 3.4 8.3 -59.04 36 UP UP 66.67 2022-11-17
inflation cpi 10 11 -9 317 100.0 100.0 92 2022-09-30
unemployment rate 5.3 5.5 -3.64 -37.65 Down Down 1.67 2022-11-23
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 89.7 95.6 -6 -13 -100.0 -100.0 10 2022-09-30
ESI - Economic Composite 104.5 102.5 2 10 100.0 100.0 88 2022-02-28
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 40311.3 39499.4 2.06 37.26 UP UP 100 2022-11-17
government debt to gdp 74.7 79.8 -6 116 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
external debt 51872 52449 -1 3 100.0 100.0 22 2022-09-30
foreign exchange reserves 787 781.4 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 2022-10-31
gold reserves 3.17 3.2 -1 0 -100.0 -100.0 68 2020-09-30
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 410.3 70.5 481.99 202.8 UP UP 93.33 2022-11-20
current account to gdp 3.3 7.4 -55 -400 -100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 2 1.25 60 3900 100.0 100.0 100 2022-10-29
central bank balance sheet 31604 32463 -2.65 -8.46 -100.0 -100.0 75 2022-09-30
banks balance sheet 50386 49894 0.99 3.11 100.0 100.0 100 2022-09-30
money supply m2 36427 36080 1 7 100.0 100.0 27 2022-09-30
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget 19 -80 -124 -148 100.0 100.0 22 2022-09-30
government revenues 1942 1897 2 9 100.0 100.0 61 2022-09-30
fiscal expenditure 1932 1933 -0 8 -100.0 100.0 58 2022-09-30

Slovenia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -2.6 by -80.0% on July 2020 from -13.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -160.47%. Slovenia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -2.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.29167.Slovenia’s inflation cpi icnreased to -1.1 by 22.22% on December 2020 from -0.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s inflation cpi decreased by -157.9%. Slovenia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.0316667.Slovenia’s unemployment rate decreased to 8.6 by -5.49% on September 2020 from 9.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s unemployment rate increased by 19.44%. Slovenia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 8.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.425.Slovenia’s building permits decreased to 330.0 by -20.29% on November 2020 from 414.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s building permits increased by 4.43%. Slovenia’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 330.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 282.083.Slovenia’s business confidence decreased to 1.0 by -200.0% on December 2020 from -1.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s business confidence decreased by -150.0%. Slovenia’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.75.Slovenia’s consumer confidence decreased to -33.0 by -10.81% on December 2020 from -37.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s consumer confidence increased by 135.71%. Slovenia’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -33.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -29.5.

 

Slovenia Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence -5 -10 -50 -183.33 Down Down 13.33 2022-11-25
ESI - Economic Composite 89.7 95.6 -6 -13 -100.0 -100.0 10 2022-09-30
ESI - Economic Composite 104.5 102.5 2 10 100.0 100.0 88 2022-02-28
Industrial Confidence -8 -1.6 400 -203 -100.0 -100.0 17 2022-09-30
Consumer Confidence -39.3 -37.5 5 83 -100.0 -100.0 77 2022-09-30
Construction Confidence 26 23 13 30 100.0 100.0 0 2022-05-31
Retail Confidence 14.6 21.5 -32 85 -100.0 100.0 87 2022-09-30
Services Confidence\ 14.6 19.7 -26 -3 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30

Slovenia’s business confidence decreased to 1.0 by -200.0% on December 2020 from -1.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s business confidence decreased by -150.0%. Slovenia’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.75.Slovenia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 82.9 by -819.0% on January 2021 from 90.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -1685.0%. Slovenia’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 82.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 88.825.Slovenia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased to 82.9 by -819.0% on January 2021 from 90.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -1685.0%. Slovenia’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 82.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 88.825.Slovenia’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -4.8 by 11818.0% on January 2021 from -2.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Manufacturing sector increased by 2000.0%. Slovenia’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -4.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.76667.Slovenia’s Consumer sector icnreased to -33.6 by 1390.0% on January 2021 from -29.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Consumer sector increased by 14706.0%. Slovenia’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -33.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.625.Slovenia’s Construction sector icnreased to -9.0 by 12500.0% on January 2021 from -4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Construction sector decreased by -28000.0%. Slovenia’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.91667.Slovenia’s Retail sector icnreased to -9.1 by 55000.0% on January 2021 from -1.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Retail sector decreased by -23188.0%. Slovenia’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -9.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.74167.Slovenia’s Services sector icnreased to -21.4 by 15176.0% on January 2021 from -8.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Services sector decreased by -21204.0%. Slovenia’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -21.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.26667.

Slovenia Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence -37 -38 -2.63 37.04 Down Down 10 2022-11-23
car registrations 3761 3335 12.77 -7.36 Down Down 18.33 2022-11-20
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -47 -46.2 2 55 -100.0 -100.0 58 2022-09-30
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) -38.6 -33.5 15 199 -100.0 -100.0 70 2022-09-30
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 54.4 55.6 -2 -3 -100.0 -100.0 25 2022-09-30
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 28.7 22.4 28 5 100.0 100.0 62 2022-09-30
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -40.9 -40 2 35 -100.0 -100.0 82 2022-09-30
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) -26.2 -22.3 17 117 -100.0 -100.0 96 2022-09-30
Consumer - Households Financial situation 22.6 23.5 -4 -15 -100.0 -100.0 3 2022-09-30

Slovenia’s consumer confidence decreased to -33.0 by -10.81% on December 2020 from -37.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s consumer confidence increased by 135.71%. Slovenia’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of -33.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -29.5.Slovenia’s car registrations icnreased to 4526.0 by 2.44% on October 2020 from 4418.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s car registrations decreased by -24.03%. Slovenia’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 4526.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4760.67.Slovenia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -51.7 by 1566.0% on January 2021 from -44.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 14856.0%. Slovenia’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -51.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -38.3083.Slovenia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to -23.0 by 1856.0% on January 2021 from -19.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) increased by 48974.0%. Slovenia’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -23.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -14.9583.Slovenia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) icnreased to 32.8 by 250.0% on January 2021 from 32.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -120.0%. Slovenia’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 32.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 37.3167.Slovenia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) icnreased to 59.4 by 1579.0% on January 2021 from 51.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 21429.0%. Slovenia’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 59.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 42.4167.Slovenia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -38.8 by 659.0% on January 2021 from -36.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 5582.0%. Slovenia’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -38.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -32.6083.Slovenia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) icnreased to -13.5 by 976.0% on January 2021 from -12.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) increased by 75.0%. Slovenia’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -13.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -15.975.Slovenia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased to 22.1 by -474.0% on January 2021 from 23.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation decreased by -433.0%. Slovenia’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 22.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 22.3417.

Slovenia Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Industrial Confidence -8 -1.6 400 -203 -100.0 -100.0 17 2022-09-30
Industrial New Orders -10.7 -4.4 143 -168 -100.0 -100.0 25 2022-09-30
Industrial Prices 33.8 21.3 59 2 -100.0 100.0 67 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 0.8 8.9 -91 -97 -100.0 -100.0 18 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -9.1 -7 30 -164 -100.0 -100.0 28 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) 12.6 10 26 62 100.0 100.0 77 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) -0.7 9.7 -107 -105 -100.0 -100.0 12 2022-09-30
industrial production -0.2 4.8 -104.17 -102.33 -100.0 -100.0 23.3333 2022-09-30
industrial production mom -2.5 1.2 -308.33 -1186.96 Down Down 8.33 2022-11-17
capacity utilization 84.1 84.7 -1 0 100.0 100.0 39 2022-12-31

Slovenia’s Manufacturing sector icnreased to -4.8 by 11818.0% on January 2021 from -2.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Manufacturing sector increased by 2000.0%. Slovenia’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of -4.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.76667.Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Order Books decreased to -19.4 by -1060.0% on January 2021 from -21.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 8835.0%. Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -19.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -31.8167.Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) icnreased to -4.4 by 476.0% on January 2021 from -4.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -3333.0%. Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -4.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.13333.Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) icnreased to 9.7 by 2763.0% on January 2021 from 7.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) increased by 9020.0%. Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of 9.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.15.Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books decreased to -20.1 by -864.0% on January 2021 from -22.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 9143.0%. Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -20.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -33.475.Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased to 3.7 by -38462.0% on January 2021 from -1.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased by -5256.0%. Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of 3.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.075.Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased to 8.7 by -3650.0% on January 2021 from 13.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) increased by 4500.0%. Slovenia’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 8.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.575.Slovenia’s industrial production decreased to -1.1 by -66.67% on October 2020 from -3.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s industrial production decreased by -142.31%. Slovenia’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.74167.Slovenia’s industrial production mom icnreased to 3.1 by 55.0% on October 2020 from 2.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s industrial production mom increased by 181.82%. Slovenia’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 3.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.233333.Slovenia’s capacity utilization icnreased to 81.6 by 7.23% on August 2020 from 76.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s capacity utilization decreased by -4.23%. Slovenia’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 81.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 82.6.

Slovenia Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Services Confidence\ 14.6 19.7 -26 -3 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30
Services - New Orders 2.9 10.8 -73 -62 -100.0 -100.0 25 2022-09-30
Services - Prices 31 31.4 -1 377 100.0 100.0 93 2022-09-30
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) 26.7 30.6 -13 19 -100.0 100.0 88 2022-09-30
Services - Demand (past 3 months) 14.1 17.7 -20 -7 100.0 -100.0 78 2022-09-30
Services - Employment (past 3 months) 14.4 17.8 -19 52 100.0 100.0 82 2022-09-30
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 19.2 19 1 16 100.0 100.0 63 2022-09-30

Slovenia’s Services sector icnreased to -21.4 by 15176.0% on January 2021 from -8.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Services sector decreased by -21204.0%. Slovenia’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -21.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.26667.Slovenia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to -28.4 by 16055.0% on January 2021 from -10.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -29860.0%. Slovenia’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -28.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.65833.Slovenia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -1.3 by -18667.0% on January 2021 from 1.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -11429.0%. Slovenia’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -1.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.158333.Slovenia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -9.7 by -90833.0% on January 2021 from 1.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -13233.0%. Slovenia’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -9.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.96667.Slovenia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -26.1 by 6415.0% on January 2021 from -15.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -30233.0%. Slovenia’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -26.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.1083.Slovenia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) icnreased to -13.3 by 5465.0% on January 2021 from -8.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -19925.0%. Slovenia’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -13.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.6833.Slovenia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased to -3.0 by -110000.0% on January 2021 from 0.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -11961.0%. Slovenia’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -3.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.53333.

Slovenia Retail Sector

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail Confidence 14.6 21.5 -32 85 -100.0 100.0 87 2022-09-30
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) 21.9 15.1 45 63 100.0 100.0 78 2022-09-30
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 31 20.1 54 6100 -100.0 100.0 0 2022-09-30
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) 16.7 22.2 -25 -193 100.0 100.0 22 2022-09-30
Retail - Stock Levels -9.6 -7.9 22 23 100.0 -100.0 68 2022-09-30
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) 17.5 34.6 -49 -48 -100.0 -100.0 25 2022-09-30
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) -0.7 4.7 -115 -93 -100.0 100.0 38 2022-09-30
retail sales 23.9 31.7 -25 28 -100.0 100.0 75 2022-09-30
retail sales MoM -3.7 7 -153 -228 -100.0 -100.0 27 2022-09-30

Slovenia’s Retail sector icnreased to -9.1 by 55000.0% on January 2021 from -1.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Retail sector decreased by -23188.0%. Slovenia’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -9.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.74167.Slovenia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -6.3 by -6557.0% on January 2021 from -18.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) increased by 200000.0%. Slovenia’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -6.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.90833.Slovenia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 8.1 by -2957.0% on January 2021 from 11.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -13767.0%. Slovenia’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 8.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.06667.Slovenia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -10.8 by -15967.0% on January 2021 from 18.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -1562.0%. Slovenia’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.55.Slovenia’s Retail – Stock Levels icnreased to 6.6 by 20000.0% on January 2021 from 2.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -4107.0%. Slovenia’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 6.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.85.Slovenia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -9.9 by -5050.0% on January 2021 from -20.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -12225.0%. Slovenia’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -9.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.5583.Slovenia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -10.6 by -6698.0% on January 2021 from -32.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -12304.0%. Slovenia’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -10.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.15833.Slovenia’s retail sales icnreased to -11.1 by 30.59% on October 2020 from -8.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s retail sales increased by 105.56%. Slovenia’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of -11.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -8.06667.Slovenia’s retail sales MoM icnreased to -4.3 by 330.0% on November 2020 from -1.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s retail sales MoM increased by 1333.33%. Slovenia’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of -4.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.05.

Slovenia Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Construction Confidence 26 23 13 30 100.0 100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Current Order Books 22 22 0 83 100.0 100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 60 64 -6 131 100.0 100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 30 24 25 7 100.0 100.0 55 2022-05-31
building permits 504 438 15.07 22.03 UP UP 98.33 2022-11-20
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) 26 37 -30 13 100.0 100.0 67 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 10 9 11 -23 -100.0 -100.0 19 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 3 2 50 -73 -100.0 -100.0 3 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 9 9 0 -61 -100.0 -100.0 7 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 54 53 2 42 100.0 100.0 49 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 42 46 -9 320 100.0 100.0 80 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 79 80 -1 27 100.0 100.0 95 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 9 9 0 -18 -100.0 -100.0 40 2022-05-31

Slovenia’s Construction sector icnreased to -9.0 by 12500.0% on January 2021 from -4.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Construction sector decreased by -28000.0%. Slovenia’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -5.91667.Slovenia’s Construction – Current Order Books icnreased to -26.0 by 5294.0% on January 2021 from -17.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 18889.0%. Slovenia’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -26.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -20.5.Slovenia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased to -7.0 by -33333.0% on January 2021 from 3.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months increased by 60000.0%. Slovenia’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of -7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.41667.Slovenia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to 8.0 by -1111.0% on January 2021 from 9.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -5556.0%. Slovenia’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.58333.Slovenia’s building permits decreased to 330.0 by -20.29% on November 2020 from 414.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s building permits increased by 4.43%. Slovenia’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 330.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 282.083.Slovenia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -14.0 by 4000.0% on January 2021 from -10.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -27500.0%. Slovenia’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -14.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.5.Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) icnreased to 17.0 by 5455.0% on January 2021 from 11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) increased by 5455.0%. Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 17.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.0833.Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) decreased to 26.0 by -1333.0% on January 2021 from 30.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) increased by 1818.0%. Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 26.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 26.5833.Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased to 14.0 by -5000.0% on January 2021 from 28.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -6111.0%. Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 14.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 21.3333.Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased to 21.0 by -455.0% on January 2021 from 22.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -4474.0%. Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 21.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 24.5.Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased to 1.0 by -6667.0% on January 2021 from 3.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) decreased by -5000.0%. Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.25.Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) icnreased to 67.0 by 635.0% on January 2021 from 63.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) increased by 1356.0%. Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 67.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 67.6667.Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) decreased to 9.0 by -1818.0% on January 2021 from 11.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) decreased by -3571.0%. Slovenia’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 9.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.0.

 

Slovenia GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 11669.5 11916.1 -2.07 8.51 UP UP 95 2022-11-20
gdp growth annual 3.4 8.3 -59.04 36 UP UP 66.67 2022-11-17
gdp 61.53 53.59 15 22 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
gdp growth -1.4 0.2 -800 1300 Down Down 11.67 2022-11-17

Slovenia’s Real GDP icnreased to 10548.3 by 12.41% on July 2020 from 9384.1 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Real GDP increased by 4.75%. Slovenia’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 10548.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10498.1.Slovenia’s gdp growth annual decreased to -2.6 by -80.0% on July 2020 from -13.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s gdp growth annual decreased by -160.47%. Slovenia’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -2.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.29167.Slovenia’s gdp decreased to 53.7422 by -0.54% on January 2019 from 54.0344 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s gdp increased by 11.95%. Slovenia’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 53.7422 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.5493.Slovenia’s gdp growth decreased to 12.4 by -226.53% on July 2020 from -9.8 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s gdp growth increased by 785.71%. Slovenia’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 12.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.483333.

Slovenia inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 10 11 -9 317 100.0 100.0 92 2022-09-30
core inflation rate 8.69 8.07 8 568 100.0 100.0 85 2022-10-31
consumer price index cpi 119.24 118.34 1 10 100.0 100.0 95 2022-10-31
Producer Price Index 143.67 143.31 0.25 25.12 UP UP 100 2022-11-23
PPI Index 21 21.1 -0 173 100.0 100.0 83 2022-08-31

Slovenia’s inflation cpi icnreased to -1.1 by 22.22% on December 2020 from -0.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s inflation cpi decreased by -157.9%. Slovenia’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.0316667.Slovenia’s core inflation rate icnreased to 1.3 by 44.44% on October 2020 from 0.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s core inflation rate decreased by -26.97%. Slovenia’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 1.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.4875.Slovenia’s consumer price index cpi decreased to 104.21 by -0.32% on December 2020 from 104.54 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s consumer price index cpi decreased by -1.08%. Slovenia’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 104.21 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 104.728.Slovenia’s Producer Price Index decreased to 103.51 by -1.32% on November 2020 from 104.89 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Producer Price Index decreased by -0.5%. Slovenia’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 103.51 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 104.226.Slovenia’s PPI Index icnreased to -0.4 by 33.33% on September 2020 from -0.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s PPI Index decreased by -200.0%. Slovenia’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -0.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.125.

Slovenia Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -5.2 -7.8 -33 -10 -100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
Government budget 19 -80 -124 -148 100.0 100.0 22 2022-09-30
government revenues 1942 1897 2 9 100.0 100.0 61 2022-09-30
fiscal expenditure 1932 1933 -0 8 -100.0 100.0 58 2022-09-30

Slovenia’s Government budget icnreased to -199.0 by 290.2% on November 2020 from -51.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s Government budget decreased by -1270.59%. Slovenia’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -199.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -226.25.Slovenia’s government revenues decreased to 1606.0 by -2.31% on November 2020 from 1644.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s government revenues decreased by -0.37%. Slovenia’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 1606.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1557.83.Slovenia’s fiscal expenditure icnreased to 1835.0 by 9.95% on November 2020 from 1669.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s fiscal expenditure increased by 12.72%. Slovenia’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 1835.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1781.67.

Slovenia Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 2 1.25 60 3900 100.0 100.0 100 2022-10-29
central bank balance sheet 31604 32463 -2.65 -8.46 -100.0 -100.0 75 2022-09-30
banks balance sheet 50386 49894 0.99 3.11 100.0 100.0 100 2022-09-30
money supply m0 6656 6670 -0 6 100.0 100.0 50 2022-09-30
money supply m1 32588 32309 1 11 100.0 100.0 19 2022-09-30
money supply m2 36427 36080 1 7 100.0 100.0 27 2022-09-30
money supply m3 36510 36155 1 7 100.0 100.0 26 2022-09-30

Slovenia’s interest rate Slovenia’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.05 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.05.Slovenia’s central bank balance sheet icnreased to 26868.0 by 4.17% on October 2020 from 25793.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s central bank balance sheet increased by 44.66%. Slovenia’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 26868.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 22920.8.Slovenia’s banks balance sheet icnreased to 45371.0 by 0.83% on October 2020 from 44999.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s banks balance sheet increased by 7.69%. Slovenia’s banks balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 45371.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 44091.0.Slovenia’s money supply m2 icnreased to 31320.0 by 1.17% on November 2020 from 30958.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s money supply m2 increased by 10.82%. Slovenia’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 31320.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 29891.0.

Slovenia Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Employment Dynamics 109.6 111.7 -2 -2 -100.0 -100.0 46 2022-09-30
EEI - Employment Composite 113.8 116.4 -2 13 100.0 100.0 87 2022-02-28
unemployment rate 5.3 5.5 -3.64 -37.65 Down Down 1.67 2022-11-23
youth unemployment rate 13.1 13.1 0 -2 100.0 -100.0 23 2022-09-30
long term unemployment rate 1.9 1.9 0 -10 100.0 -100.0 62 2021-09-30

Slovenia’s EEI – Employment Composite On a year on year basis Slovenia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -942.0%. Slovenia’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 100.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 97.7833.Slovenia’s EEI – Employment Composite On a year on year basis Slovenia’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -942.0%. Slovenia’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 100.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 97.7833.Slovenia’s unemployment rate decreased to 8.6 by -5.49% on September 2020 from 9.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s unemployment rate increased by 19.44%. Slovenia’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 8.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.425.Slovenia’s youth unemployment rate On a year on year basis Slovenia’s youth unemployment rate increased by 67.07%. Slovenia’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 13.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 12.325.Slovenia’s long term unemployment rate decreased to 1.7 by -15.0% on February 2020 from 2.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -48.48%. Slovenia’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 1.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.15.

Slovenia Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 410.3 70.5 481.99 202.8 UP UP 93.33 2022-11-20
current account to gdp 3.3 7.4 -55 -400 -100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
exports 5299.53 4189.88 26 52 100.0 100.0 97 2022-09-30
imports 5038.87 4708.19 7 32 100.0 100.0 75 2022-09-30
balance of trade 260.661 -518.31 -150 -176 100.0 100.0 25 2022-09-30
foreign direct investment 75 262.2 -71 -25 -100.0 -100.0 43 2022-08-31

Slovenia’s current account icnreased to 491.0 by 17.86% on October 2020 from 416.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s current account increased by 27.23%. Slovenia’s current account trend is down since the current value of 491.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 275.958.Slovenia’s current account to gdp decreased to 6.6 by -5.71% on January 2019 from 7.0 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s current account to gdp decreased by -260.98%. Slovenia’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of 6.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.10833.Slovenia’s exports icnreased to 2957.96 by 33.68% on September 2020 from 2212.77 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s exports increased by 0.26%. Slovenia’s exports trend is down since the current value of 2957.96 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2655.13.Slovenia’s imports icnreased to 2641.53 by 13.21% on September 2020 from 2333.33 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s imports decreased by -9.1%. Slovenia’s imports trend is down since the current value of 2641.53 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2610.75.Slovenia’s balance of trade decreased to 316.43 by -362.47% on September 2020 from -120.56 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s balance of trade increased by 615.9%. Slovenia’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 316.43 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 44.3767.Slovenia’s foreign direct investment icnreased to 194.3 by 220.1% on September 2020 from 60.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s foreign direct investment increased by 44.57%. Slovenia’s foreign direct investment trend is down since the current value of 194.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 73.2917.

Slovenia Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 787 781.4 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 2022-10-31
gold reserves 3.17 3.2 -1 0 -100.0 -100.0 68 2020-09-30

Slovenia’s foreign exchange reserves icnreased to 503.1 by 3.69% on November 2020 from 485.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 30.3%. Slovenia’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 503.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 450.775.Slovenia’s gold reserves decreased to 3.17 by -0.94% on July 2020 from 3.2 in the previous Quarterly. Slovenia’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 3.17 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.19.Slovenia’s government debt decreased to 33487.1 by -0.29% on July 2020 from 33583.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s government debt increased by 11.33%. Slovenia’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 33487.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 29941.4.Slovenia’s government debt to gdp decreased to 66.1 by -6.11% on January 2019 from 70.4 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s government debt to gdp increased by 189.91%. Slovenia’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 66.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 59.825.Slovenia’s external debt icnreased to 49043.5 by 2.59% on August 2020 from 47804.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s external debt increased by 13.65%. Slovenia’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 49043.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46047.0.

Slovenia Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 40311.3 39499.4 2.06 37.26 UP UP 100 2022-11-17
government debt to gdp 74.7 79.8 -6 116 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
external debt 51872 52449 -1 3 100.0 100.0 22 2022-09-30

Slovenia’s government debt decreased to 33487.1 by -0.29% on July 2020 from 33583.9 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s government debt increased by 11.33%. Slovenia’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 33487.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 29941.4.Slovenia’s government debt to gdp decreased to 66.1 by -6.11% on January 2019 from 70.4 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s government debt to gdp increased by 189.91%. Slovenia’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 66.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 59.825.Slovenia’s external debt icnreased to 49043.5 by 2.59% on August 2020 from 47804.7 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s external debt increased by 13.65%. Slovenia’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 49043.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46047.0.

Slovenia Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 1.4277 1.0109 41 -360 100.0 100.0 2 2022-10-31
bank lending rate 2.7 2.38 13 35 100.0 100.0 100 2022-09-30
loans to private sector 10838 10866 -0.26 16.88 UP UP 98.33 2022-11-17

Slovenia’s interbank rate icnreased to -0.408 by 11.78% on August 2019 from -0.365 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s interbank rate increased by 27.5%. Slovenia’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of -0.408 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.32675.Slovenia’s bank lending rate icnreased to 2.31 by 4.52% on October 2020 from 2.21 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s bank lending rate increased by 2.21%. Slovenia’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 2.31 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.32167.Slovenia’s loans to private sector decreased to 9275.0 by -0.2% on October 2020 from 9294.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Slovenia’s loans to private sector decreased by -2.82%. Slovenia’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 9275.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9464.5.

 

Slovenia macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Slovenia economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Slovenia Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Slovenia Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Slovenia’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
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