EU Inflation analysis
MacroVar monitors EU inflation dynamics, inflation subcomponents as welll as leading indicators used to forecast EU inflation short-term dynamics.MacroVar database provides free access to EU inflation indicators and its subcomponents using API/Excel for further resesarch and analysis.
EU Inflation Overview
ESI manufacturing prices paid and ESI services prices paid published by Eurostat for Europe and each country in the European Union are very important leading indicators for predicting EU inflation in the next three months.
| Indicator | Symbol | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| inflation cpi | ea.inflationcpi | 2.0 | 1.7 | 18 | -17 |  |
| core inflation rate | ea.coreinflationrate | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0 | -36 |  |
| Produce Prices YoY | ea.producerpricesch | -3.4 | -2.3 | 48 | -66 |  |
| CPI All items | MC.EA.cpi.all-items | 126.99 | 126.56 | 0 | 2 |  |
| CPI Food | MC.EA.cpi.food | 138.82 | 137.79 | 1 | 2 |  |
| CPI Food at home | MC.EA.cpi.food-home | 139.26 | 138.2 | 1 | 2 |  |
| CPI Bread and cereals | MC.EA.cpi.bread-cereals | 134.39 | 133.98 | 0 | 1 |  |
| CPI Meat | MC.EA.cpi.meat | 135.47 | 135.25 | 0 | 1 |  |
| CPI Fish and seafood | MC.EA.cpi.fish-seafood | 138.4 | 138.34 | 0 | 2 |  |
| CPI Milk, cheese and eggs | MC.EA.cpi.milk-cheese-eggs | 138.84 | 138.26 | 0 | 0 |  |
| CPI Oils and fats | MC.EA.coi.oils-fats | 188.27 | 185.71 | 1 | 11 |  |
| CPI Fruit | MC.EA.cpi.fruit | 142.21 | 139.11 | 2 | 2 |  |
| CPI Vegetables | MC.EA.cpi.vegetables | 147.55 | 143.76 | 3 | 4 |  |
| CPI Sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery | MC.EA.cpi.sugar-jam-honey-chocolate-confectionery | 132.11 | 131.84 | 0 | 4 |  |
| CPI Nonalcoholic beverages | MC.EA.cpi.nonalcoholic-beverages | 134.01 | 133.21 | 1 | 5 |  |
| CPI Energy | MC.EA.cpi.energy | 145.38 | 144.83 | 0 | -5 |  |
| CPI Fuels and lubricant | MC.EA.cpi.fuels-lubricant | 126.77 | 126.1 | 1 | -10 |  |
| CPI Electricity | MC.EA.cpi.electricity | 153.47 | 153.56 | -0 | 0 |  |
| CPI Gas | MC.EA.cpi.gas | 160.3 | 158.53 | 1 | 4 |  |
| CPI Goods (overall index excluding services) | MC.EA.cpi.goods | 129.01 | 128.21 | 1 | 0 |  |
| CPI Clothing and footwear | MC.EA.cpi.clothing-footwear | 115.86 | 113.16 | 2 | 1 |  |
| CPI Furnishings, household equipment | MC.EA.cpi.furnishings-household-equipment | 116.68 | 116.39 | 0 | -0 |  |
| CPI New motor cars | MC.EA.cpi.new-motor-cars | 125.91 | 125.82 | 0 | 1 |  |
| CPI Second-hand motor cars | MC.EA.cpi.second-hand-motor-cars | 125.04 | 124.94 | 0 | 1 |  |
| CPI Alcoholic beverages | MC.EA.cpi.alcoholic-beverages | 122.31 | 122.41 | -0 | 1 |  |
| CPI Tobacco | MC.EA.cpi.tobacco | 154.12 | 153.21 | 1 | 9 |  |
| CPI Actual rentals for housing | MC.EA.cpi.actual-rentals-housing | 116.47 | 116.2 | 0 | 3 |  |
| CPI Maintenance and repair of the dwelling | MC.EA.cpi.maintenance-repair-dwelling | 136.01 | 135.53 | 0 | 3 |  |
| CPI Water supply and services | MC.EA.cpi.water-supply-services | 119.86 | 119.35 | 0 | 4 |  |
| CPI Health | MC.EA.cpi.health | 113.22 | 112.91 | 0 | 3 |  |
| CPI out-patient services | MC.EA.cpi.out-patient-services | 113.31 | 113.37 | -0 | 4 |  |
| CPI Hopistal services | MC.EA.cpi.hospital-services | 112.29 | 111.69 | 1 | 4 |  |
| CPI Transportation Services | MC.EA.cpi.transportation-services | 118.57 | 116.15 | 2 | 3 |  |
| CPI Passenger transport by railway | MC.EA.cpi.passenger-transport-railway | 111.59 | 110.86 | 1 | 3 |  |
| CPI Passenger transport by air | MC.EA.cpi.passenger-transport-air | 152.19 | 142.89 | 7 | 4 |  |
| CPI Passenger transport by sea | MC.EA.cpi.passenger-transport-sea | 128.3 | 127.87 | 0 | 7 |  |
| CPI Recreation and culture | MC.EA.cpi.recreation-culture | 118.98 | 119.45 | -0 | 3 |  |
| CPI Recreational and cultural services | MC.EA.cpi.recreational-cultural-services | 123.51 | 122.92 | 0 | 4 |  |
| CPI Package holidays | MC.EA.cpi.package-holidays | 137.74 | 141.96 | -3 | 8 |  |
| CPI Accommodation services | MC.EA.cpi.accommodation-services | 146.11 | 150.78 | -3 | 5 |  |
Key Subcomponents of EU Inflation
Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages
Overview: This category includes all consumable goods such as fresh produce, meat, dairy products, and non-alcoholic drinks.
Analysis: Recently, this sector has experienced fluctuations due to supply chain disruptions and varying agricultural yields. Seasonal changes and international trade policies also play significant roles in price movements.
Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco
Overview: This subcomponent covers the prices of alcoholic drinks and tobacco products.
Analysis: Tax policies and regulatory measures significantly impact this category. Recent trends indicate an increase due to higher excise taxes aimed at reducing consumption.
Clothing and Footwear
Overview: Prices of garments, shoes, and accessories are included here.
Analysis: Fashion industry trends, raw material costs, and consumer demand drive this sector. The recent rise in production costs and changes in consumer behavior have led to noticeable price adjustments.
Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels
Overview: This category encompasses costs related to housing, utilities, and fuel.
Analysis: Energy prices and housing market dynamics are crucial influencers. Recent increases in gas and electricity prices have been significant contributors to inflationary pressures.
Furnishings, Household Equipment, and Routine Household Maintenance
Overview: Includes furniture, appliances, and household services.
Analysis: Supply chain issues and increased production costs have impacted this sector. Consumer demand for home improvement products has also driven price changes.
Health
Overview: Covers expenses related to medical services, products, and health insurance.
Analysis: Public health policies and the cost of medical advancements affect this category. Recent trends show moderate increases due to rising healthcare costs.
Transport
Overview: This subcomponent includes the cost of vehicles, public transportation, and fuel.
Analysis: Fuel prices and transportation policies are significant factors. The recent surge in oil prices has notably affected transportation costs.
Communication
Overview: Encompasses services related to telecommunication, postal services, and internet.
Analysis: Technological advancements and regulatory changes shape this sector. Competitive pricing among providers has kept price increases relatively modest.
Recreation and Culture
Overview: Includes expenditures on leisure activities, cultural events, and recreational equipment.
Analysis: Consumer spending patterns and the impact of global events, such as the pandemic, influence this category. There has been a gradual recovery with increasing demand for recreational services.
Education
Overview: Covers tuition fees and other education-related expenses.
Analysis: Education policies and demographic trends affect this sector. There has been a steady increase in education costs due to rising demand and limited public funding.
Restaurants and Hotels
Overview: Includes dining out, accommodation, and related services.
Analysis: Tourism trends and consumer confidence drive this category. Recent years have seen price increases due to higher operating costs and increased demand post-pandemic.
Miscellaneous Goods and Services
Overview: This catch-all category includes personal care, insurance, and other miscellaneous expenses.
Analysis: Diverse factors influence this subcomponent. Insurance premiums and personal care costs have shown moderate increases.