Ireland Economy

Ireland’s gdp growth annual decreased to 8.1 by -353.12% on July 2020 from -3.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s gdp growth annual decreased by -44.9%. Ireland’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 8.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.29167.Ireland’s inflation cpi decreased to -1.1 by -26.67% on November 2020 from -1.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s inflation cpi decreased by -200.0%. Ireland’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.15.Ireland’s unemployment rate icnreased to 7.5 by 4.17% on November 2020 from 7.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s unemployment rate increased by 59.57%. Ireland’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 7.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.75833.

Ireland Macroeconomic model

MacroVar Ireland Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. Ireland’s current macroeconomic conditions are summarized below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Ireland macroecononic model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

Ireland Macro Model

Ireland News

Ireland Economy

Economic Activity Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
gdp growth annual 11 9.6 15 139 100.0 100.0 83 2022-03-31
inflation cpi 9.2 8.2 12.2 80.39 100.0 100.0 100 2022-10-31
unemployment rate 4.2 4.3 -2 -26 -100.0 -100.0 13 2022-07-31
Business & Consumer Forecast Overview Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ESI - Economic Composite 95 95.9 -1 -16 -100.0 -100.0 11 2022-09-30
manufacturing pmi 51.4 51.5 -0 -17 -100.0 -100.0 9 2022-10-31
services pmi 53.2 54.1 -2 -16 -100.0 -100.0 12 2022-10-31
Reserves & Outstanding Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 236595 235130 1 11 100.0 100.0 52 2022-06-30
government debt to gdp 56 58.4 -4 -9 -100.0 -100.0 0 2021-01-31
external debt 2954440 2912740 1 24 100.0 100.0 76 2022-06-30
foreign exchange reserves 12547.1 12880.4 -2.59 15.65 100.0 100.0 96.6667 2022-10-31
gold reserves 12.04 9.52 26 101 100.0 100.0 100 2022-03-31
Trade Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 15848 17043 -7 -149 100.0 100.0 23 2022-06-30
current account to gdp 13.9 -2.7 -615 -396 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
Monetary Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 2 1.25 60 3900 100.0 100.0 100 2022-10-28
central bank balance sheet 216357 216444 -0 10 100.0 100.0 26 2022-10-31
money supply m2 339970 334919 2 8 100.0 100.0 38 2022-09-30
Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Government budget -1409 196 -819 -154 -100.0 -100.0 32 2022-06-30
government revenues 27040 24250 12 63 100.0 100.0 94 2022-06-30
fiscal expenditure 28449 24054 18 86 100.0 100.0 97 2022-06-30

Ireland’s gdp growth annual decreased to 8.1 by -353.12% on July 2020 from -3.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s gdp growth annual decreased by -44.9%. Ireland’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 8.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.29167.Ireland’s inflation cpi decreased to -1.1 by -26.67% on November 2020 from -1.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s inflation cpi decreased by -200.0%. Ireland’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.15.Ireland’s unemployment rate icnreased to 7.5 by 4.17% on November 2020 from 7.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s unemployment rate increased by 59.57%. Ireland’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 7.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.75833.Ireland’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 52.2 by 3.78% on November 2020 from 50.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s manufacturing pmi increased by 5.03%. Ireland’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 52.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.7917.Ireland’s services pmi decreased to 45.4 by -6.0% on November 2020 from 48.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s services pmi decreased by -15.46%. Ireland’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 45.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 43.8333.Ireland’s construction pmi icnreased to 53.5 by 10.08% on November 2020 from 48.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s construction pmi increased by 11.0%. Ireland’s construction pmi trend is down since the current value of 53.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 42.0833.Ireland’s building permits icnreased to 2196.0 by 153.29% on May 2020 from 867.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s building permits increased by 31.5%. Ireland’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 2196.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1696.0.Ireland’s business confidence decreased to -58.0 by -24.68% on April 2020 from -77.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s business confidence decreased by -462.5%. Ireland’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -58.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.5.Ireland’s consumer confidence icnreased to 74.6 by 13.89% on December 2020 from 65.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s consumer confidence decreased by -8.35%. Ireland’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of 74.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 64.95.

Ireland Business activity

Business Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
business confidence 17 50 -66 -19 100.0 -100.0 0 2021-09-30
ESI - Economic Composite 95 95.9 -1 -16 -100.0 -100.0 11 2022-09-30
manufacturing pmi 51.4 51.5 -0 -17 -100.0 -100.0 9 2022-10-31
services pmi 53.2 54.1 -2 -16 -100.0 -100.0 12 2022-10-31
Manufacturing sector 8.9 7 27 -58 -100.0 -100.0 38 2022-09-30
Consumer sector -32.8 -27.1 21 -1037 -100.0 -100.0 5 2022-09-30
Construction sector 14 17 -18 -18 -100.0 -100.0 61 2022-05-31
Retail sector -1.1 -11.8 -91 -105 -100.0 -100.0 30 2022-09-30
Services sector 17.1 26.1 -34 -63 -100.0 -100.0 37 2022-09-30

Ireland’s business confidence decreased to -58.0 by -24.68% on April 2020 from -77.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s business confidence decreased by -462.5%. Ireland’s business confidence trend is down since the current value of -58.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.5.Ireland’s ESI – Economic Composite icnreased to 90.5 by 622.0% on January 2021 from 85.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s ESI – Economic Composite decreased by -1013.0%. Ireland’s ESI – Economic Composite trend is down since the current value of 90.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 86.6917.Ireland’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 52.2 by 3.78% on November 2020 from 50.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s manufacturing pmi increased by 5.03%. Ireland’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 52.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.7917.Ireland’s services pmi decreased to 45.4 by -6.0% on November 2020 from 48.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s services pmi decreased by -15.46%. Ireland’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 45.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 43.8333.Ireland’s Manufacturing sector decreased to 2.8 by -17778.0% on January 2021 from -3.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -6543.0%. Ireland’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of 2.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.79167.Ireland’s Consumer sector decreased to -9.5 by -4062.0% on January 2021 from -16.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Consumer sector increased by 18788.0%. Ireland’s Consumer sector trend is down since the current value of -9.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.3417.Ireland’s Construction sector icnreased to -8.0 by 6000.0% on January 2021 from -5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Construction sector decreased by -90000.0%. Ireland’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.5.Ireland’s Retail sector icnreased to -4.0 by 2121.0% on January 2021 from -3.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Retail sector decreased by -13175.0%. Ireland’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.90833.Ireland’s Services sector decreased to -9.5 by -3448.0% on January 2021 from -14.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Services sector decreased by -13571.0%. Ireland’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -9.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.75.

Ireland Consumer activity

Consumer Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
consumer confidence 45.3 46.1 -1.74 -45.49 Down Down 5 2022-11-23
car registrations 4527 7315 -38.11 16.62 -100.0 100.0 38.3333 2022-10-31
Consumer - General economic situation (next 12 months) -51 -45 13 -1081 -100.0 -100.0 8 2022-09-30
Consumer - Financial situation (next 12 months) -31.9 -20.5 56 -373 -100.0 -100.0 3 2022-09-30
Consumer - Price trends (next 12 months) 44.9 33.3 35 61 100.0 100.0 75 2022-09-30
Consumer - Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) 22.5 17.4 29 -243 100.0 100.0 18 2022-09-30
Consumer - Major purchases (next 12 months) -21.6 -20.7 4 266 -100.0 -100.0 92 2022-09-30
Consumer - Savings (next 12 months) 18.9 24 -21 -53 -100.0 -100.0 2 2022-09-30
Consumer - Households Financial situation 21.6 25 -14 -41 -100.0 -100.0 2 2022-09-30

 

Ireland’s consumer confidence icnreased to 74.6 by 13.89% on December 2020 from 65.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s consumer confidence decreased by -8.35%. Ireland’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of 74.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 64.95.Ireland’s car registrations decreased to 1468.0 by -64.96% on November 2020 from 4189.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s car registrations decreased by -12.41%. Ireland’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 1468.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7000.5.Ireland’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) decreased to -20.1 by -4846.0% on January 2021 from -39.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) increased by 1824.0%. Ireland’s Consumer – General economic situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -20.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -29.0083.Ireland’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) icnreased to 5.7 by 61250.0% on January 2021 from 0.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) decreased by -2692.0%. Ireland’s Consumer – Financial situation (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 5.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.26667.Ireland’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) icnreased to 8.8 by 8333.0% on January 2021 from 4.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) decreased by -6494.0%. Ireland’s Consumer – Price trends (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 8.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.9417.Ireland’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) decreased to 27.5 by -3996.0% on January 2021 from 45.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) increased by 8836.0%. Ireland’s Consumer – Unemployment expectations (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 27.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 25.3833.Ireland’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) icnreased to -19.7 by 649.0% on January 2021 from -18.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) increased by 17746.0%. Ireland’s Consumer – Major purchases (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of -19.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -19.05.Ireland’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) icnreased to 46.3 by 946.0% on January 2021 from 42.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) increased by 1489.0%. Ireland’s Consumer – Savings (next 12 months) trend is down since the current value of 46.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 41.2333.Ireland’s Consumer – Households Financial situation icnreased to 36.7 by 138.0% on January 2021 from 36.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Consumer – Households Financial situation increased by 890.0%. Ireland’s Consumer – Households Financial situation trend is down since the current value of 36.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 35.075.

Ireland Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
manufacturing pmi 51.4 51.5 -0 -17 -100.0 -100.0 9 2022-10-31
Manufacturing sector 8.9 7 27 -58 -100.0 -100.0 38 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Order Books -3.7 -16.6 -78 -408 -100.0 -100.0 12 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Selling Price expectations (next months) 61.4 64.8 -5 28 -100.0 100.0 50 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Production trend (recent months) 9.7 24 -60 -66 -100.0 -100.0 35 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Export Order Books -3.8 -22.4 -83 -56 100.0 100.0 64 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Finished Products (Stock Levels) -9 -2.8 221 -19 -100.0 100.0 0 2022-09-30
Manufacturing - Production expectations (next months) 21.5 35 -39 -58 -100.0 -100.0 13 2022-09-30
industrial production 28.8 7.3 294.52 7.06 100.0 100.0 91.6667 2022-09-30
industrial production mom 11.9 19.6 -39.29 -333.33 100.0 100.0 88.3333 2022-09-30

Ireland’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 52.2 by 3.78% on November 2020 from 50.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s manufacturing pmi increased by 5.03%. Ireland’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 52.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.7917.Ireland’s Manufacturing sector decreased to 2.8 by -17778.0% on January 2021 from -3.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Manufacturing sector decreased by -6543.0%. Ireland’s Manufacturing sector trend is down since the current value of 2.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.79167.Ireland’s Manufacturing – Order Books icnreased to -24.6 by 742.0% on January 2021 from -22.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Manufacturing – Order Books increased by 30328.0%. Ireland’s Manufacturing – Order Books trend is down since the current value of -24.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -21.8583.Ireland’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased to -1.1 by -13235.0% on January 2021 from 3.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) decreased by -11279.0%. Ireland’s Manufacturing – Selling Price expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.44167.Ireland’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased to 2.1 by -11944.0% on January 2021 from -10.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) decreased by -8421.0%. Ireland’s Manufacturing – Production trend (recent months) trend is down since the current value of 2.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.35.Ireland’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books decreased to -22.4 by -3563.0% on January 2021 from -34.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books increased by 57879.0%. Ireland’s Manufacturing – Export Order Books trend is down since the current value of -22.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -24.7333.Ireland’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) decreased to -4.9 by -500000.0% on January 2021 from 0.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) increased by 34546.0%. Ireland’s Manufacturing – Finished Products (Stock Levels) trend is down since the current value of -4.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.64167.Ireland’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) icnreased to 28.0 by 12764.0% on January 2021 from 12.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) decreased by -411.0%. Ireland’s Manufacturing – Production expectations (next months) trend is down since the current value of 28.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17.1083.Ireland’s industrial production icnreased to -13.2 by 186.96% on September 2020 from -4.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s industrial production decreased by -628.0%. Ireland’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -13.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.6.Ireland’s industrial production mom decreased to -5.0 by -65.99% on September 2020 from -14.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s industrial production mom decreased by -194.34%. Ireland’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of -5.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.3.

Ireland Services activity

Services Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
services pmi 53.2 54.1 -2 -16 -100.0 -100.0 12 2022-10-31
Services sector 17.1 26.1 -34 -63 -100.0 -100.0 37 2022-09-30
Services - Demand Expectations (next 3 months) 13.2 21.1 -37 -69 -100.0 -100.0 22 2022-09-30
Services - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 45.3 42.9 6 29 100.0 100.0 61 2022-09-30
Services - Business activity (past 3 months) 18.4 31 -41 -56 -100.0 -100.0 45 2022-09-30
Services - Demand (past 3 months) 19.6 26.2 -25 -62 -100.0 -100.0 42 2022-09-30
Services - Employment (past 3 months) 10 18.6 -46 -38 -100.0 -100.0 45 2022-09-30
Services - Employment (next 3 months) 21.1 21.6 -2 -36 -100.0 -100.0 33 2022-09-30

Ireland’s services pmi decreased to 45.4 by -6.0% on November 2020 from 48.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s services pmi decreased by -15.46%. Ireland’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 45.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 43.8333.Ireland’s Services sector decreased to -9.5 by -3448.0% on January 2021 from -14.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Services sector decreased by -13571.0%. Ireland’s Services sector trend is down since the current value of -9.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.75.Ireland’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 13.5 by -41395.0% on January 2021 from -4.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -4808.0%. Ireland’s Services – Demand Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 13.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 9.13333.Ireland’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to -2.8 by -3333.0% on January 2021 from -4.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -11514.0%. Ireland’s Services – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -2.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.40833.Ireland’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased to -25.0 by -942.0% on January 2021 from -27.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -18897.0%. Ireland’s Services – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -25.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -22.2583.Ireland’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) icnreased to -17.0 by 4530.0% on January 2021 from -11.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) decreased by -16564.0%. Ireland’s Services – Demand (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -17.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -16.1167.Ireland’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased to -13.3 by -1790.0% on January 2021 from -16.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) decreased by -18210.0%. Ireland’s Services – Employment (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -13.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -12.9333.Ireland’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased to 10.6 by -26562.0% on January 2021 from -6.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) decreased by -5047.0%. Ireland’s Services – Employment (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 10.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.26667.

Ireland Retail Sector

 

Retail Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Retail sector -1.1 -11.8 -91 -105 -100.0 -100.0 30 2022-09-30
Retail - Orders Expectations (next 3 months) -2.5 -2.7 -7 -112 -100.0 -100.0 23 2022-09-30
Retail - Prices expectations (next 3 months) 84.8 71.3 19 44 100.0 100.0 57 2022-09-30
Retail - Business activity (past 3 months) 3.7 -13.6 -127 -86 -100.0 -100.0 45 2022-09-30
Retail - Stock Levels -0.7 13.3 -105 -46 -100.0 100.0 50 2022-09-30
Retail - Business activity expectations (next 3 months) -7.6 -8.6 -12 -119 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-09-30
Retail - Employment expectations (next 3 months) 6.6 10.3 -36 -69 -100.0 -100.0 30 2022-09-30
retail sales -7 -4.7 49 312 -100.0 -100.0 97 2022-09-30
retail sales MoM -3.1 2.9 -207 121 -100.0 -100.0 92 2022-09-30

Ireland’s Retail sector icnreased to -4.0 by 2121.0% on January 2021 from -3.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Retail sector decreased by -13175.0%. Ireland’s Retail sector trend is down since the current value of -4.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.90833.Ireland’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 3.5 by -12612.0% on January 2021 from -13.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -5679.0%. Ireland’s Retail – Orders Expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 3.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.63333.Ireland’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 8.1 by -1290.0% on January 2021 from 9.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -7254.0%. Ireland’s Retail – Prices expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 8.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 10.75.Ireland’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) icnreased to -16.1 by 136364.0% on January 2021 from -1.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) decreased by -22984.0%. Ireland’s Retail – Business activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -16.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -9.06667.Ireland’s Retail – Stock Levels icnreased to 7.0 by 16923.0% on January 2021 from 2.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Retail – Stock Levels decreased by -2473.0%. Ireland’s Retail – Stock Levels trend is down since the current value of 7.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.64167.Ireland’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased to 11.0 by -27460.0% on January 2021 from -6.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -6821.0%. Ireland’s Retail – Business activity expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.99167.Ireland’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) icnreased to 2.0 by 10000.0% on January 2021 from 1.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) decreased by -8374.0%. Ireland’s Retail – Employment expectations (next 3 months) trend is down since the current value of 2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.90833.Ireland’s retail sales decreased to 8.1 by -16.49% on October 2020 from 9.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s retail sales increased by 145.46%. Ireland’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 8.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.35.Ireland’s retail sales MoM decreased to -0.7 by -146.67% on October 2020 from 1.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s retail sales MoM decreased by -200.0%. Ireland’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of -0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.24167.

Ireland Construction Sector

Construction Activity Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
construction pmi 47.4 50.2 -5.58 -16.7 -100.0 -100.0 21.6667 2022-10-31
Construction sector 14 17 -18 -18 -100.0 -100.0 61 2022-05-31
Construction - Current Order Books 13 15 -13 -425 -100.0 100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Prices over next 3 months 79 86 -8 10 -100.0 100.0 56 2022-05-31
Construction - Employment over next 3 months 15 19 -21 -62 -100.0 -100.0 0 2022-05-31
building permits 2161 2430 -11 22 100.0 100.0 63 2022-06-30
new home sales 818 803 1.87 35.43 UP UP 86.67 2022-11-20
Construction - Building Activity (past 3 months) 25 39 -36 0 -100.0 100.0 0 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (None) 17 10 70 13 100.0 100.0 57 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) 17 19 -11 -19 100.0 -100.0 51 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Weather) 7 10 -30 -22 -100.0 -100.0 48 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) 58 60 -3 7 -100.0 100.0 46 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Shortage of material - equipment) 65 68 -4 10 -100.0 100.0 32 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Other) 52 36 44 21 100.0 100.0 76 2022-05-31
Construction - Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) 11 11 0 57 100.0 100.0 93 2022-05-31

Ireland’s construction pmi icnreased to 53.5 by 10.08% on November 2020 from 48.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s construction pmi increased by 11.0%. Ireland’s construction pmi trend is down since the current value of 53.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 42.0833.Ireland’s Construction sector icnreased to -8.0 by 6000.0% on January 2021 from -5.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Construction sector decreased by -90000.0%. Ireland’s Construction sector trend is down since the current value of -8.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.5.Ireland’s Construction – Current Order Books decreased to -11.0 by -2143.0% on January 2021 from -14.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Construction – Current Order Books increased by 2222.0%. Ireland’s Construction – Current Order Books trend is down since the current value of -11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -10.3333.Ireland’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months icnreased to 23.0 by 1500.0% on January 2021 from 20.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months decreased by -1154.0%. Ireland’s Construction – Prices over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 23.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18.4167.Ireland’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased to 11.0 by -120000.0% on January 2021 from -1.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months decreased by -833.0%. Ireland’s Construction – Employment over next 3 months trend is down since the current value of 11.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.5.Ireland’s building permits icnreased to 2196.0 by 153.29% on May 2020 from 867.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s building permits increased by 31.5%. Ireland’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 2196.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1696.0.Ireland’s new home sales icnreased to 609.0 by 22.78% on September 2020 from 496.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s new home sales decreased by -18.8%. Ireland’s new home sales trend is down since the current value of 609.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 612.417.Ireland’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased to -2.0 by -11250.0% on January 2021 from 16.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) decreased by -11000.0%. Ireland’s Construction – Building Activity (past 3 months) trend is down since the current value of -2.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -4.5.Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) icnreased to 16.0 by 667.0% on January 2021 from 15.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) increased by 6000.0%. Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (None) trend is down since the current value of 16.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13.8333.Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) decreased to 31.0 by -606.0% on January 2021 from 33.0 in the previous . Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Insufficient Demand) trend is down since the current value of 31.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 33.8333.Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) icnreased to 21.0 by 2353.0% on January 2021 from 17.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) decreased by -1600.0%. Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Weather) trend is down since the current value of 21.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.9167.Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) On a year on year basis Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) decreased by -3333.0%. Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of labour force) trend is down since the current value of 28.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 30.75.Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) On a year on year basis Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) increased by 63333.0%. Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Shortage of material / equipment) trend is down since the current value of 22.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18.0.Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased to 10.0 by -3333.0% on January 2021 from 15.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) decreased by -909.0%. Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Other) trend is down since the current value of 10.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 11.75.Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) decreased to 54.0 by -1818.0% on January 2021 from 66.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) decreased by -1562.0%. Ireland’s Construction – Factors Limiting (Financial Constraints) trend is down since the current value of 54.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 61.6667.

Ireland GDP

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
Real GDP 115770 113716 2 35 100.0 100.0 83 2022-06-30
gdp growth annual 11 9.6 15 139 100.0 100.0 83 2022-03-31
gdp 498.56 425.89 17 111 100.0 100.0 0 2021-12-31
gdp growth 1.8 6.2 -71 -22 100.0 -100.0 70 2022-06-30

Ireland’s Real GDP icnreased to 93649.0 by 11.05% on July 2020 from 84328.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s Real GDP increased by 22.86%. Ireland’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 93649.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 85025.2.Ireland’s gdp growth annual decreased to 8.1 by -353.12% on July 2020 from -3.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s gdp growth annual decreased by -44.9%. Ireland’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of 8.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.29167.Ireland’s gdp icnreased to 388.699 by 1.57% on January 2019 from 382.674 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s gdp increased by 44.01%. Ireland’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 388.699 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 282.671.Ireland’s gdp growth decreased to 11.1 by -446.88% on July 2020 from -3.2 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s gdp growth increased by 131.25%. Ireland’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 11.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.80833.

Ireland inflation

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
inflation cpi 9.2 8.2 12.2 80.39 100.0 100.0 100 2022-10-31
core inflation rate 5.8 5.3 9 314 100.0 100.0 82 2022-07-31
consumer price index cpi 115.6 113.8 0 0 0 0 0 2022-10-31
Producer Price Index 88.4 87.2 1 6 100.0 100.0 97 2022-09-30
PPI Index 8 6.1 31.15 -407.69 UP UP 100 2022-11-23

Ireland’s inflation cpi decreased to -1.1 by -26.67% on November 2020 from -1.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s inflation cpi decreased by -200.0%. Ireland’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.15.Ireland’s core inflation rate decreased to -0.6 by -40.0% on November 2020 from -1.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s core inflation rate decreased by -142.86%. Ireland’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of -0.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.275.Ireland’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 101.1 by 0.3% on November 2020 from 100.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s consumer price index cpi decreased by -1.08%. Ireland’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 101.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 101.858.Ireland’s Producer Price Index decreased to 83.3 by -2.8% on November 2020 from 85.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s Producer Price Index decreased by -10.72%. Ireland’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 83.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 88.275.Ireland’s PPI Index icnreased to -10.7 by 109.8% on November 2020 from -5.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s PPI Index increased by 463.16%. Ireland’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of -10.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -7.68333.

Ireland Government Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government budget -0.1 -5.1 -98 -99 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
Government budget -1409 196 -819 -154 -100.0 -100.0 32 2022-06-30
government revenues 27040 24250 12 63 100.0 100.0 94 2022-06-30
fiscal expenditure 28449 24054 18 86 100.0 100.0 97 2022-06-30

Ireland’s Government budget icnreased to -2041.0 by 103.29% on May 2020 from -1004.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s Government budget decreased by -196.87%. Ireland’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -2041.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 539.25.Ireland’s government revenues decreased to 13022.0 by -28.19% on May 2020 from 18134.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s government revenues increased by 5.11%. Ireland’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 13022.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15525.7.Ireland’s fiscal expenditure decreased to 17064.0 by -18.48% on May 2020 from 20931.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s fiscal expenditure increased by 36.19%. Ireland’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 17064.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 16280.4.

Ireland Monetary Policy

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interest rate 2 1.25 60 3900 100.0 100.0 100 2022-10-28
central bank balance sheet 216357 216444 -0 10 100.0 100.0 26 2022-10-31
money supply m1 291040 291132 -0 4 100.0 100.0 2 2022-09-30
money supply m2 339970 334919 2 8 100.0 100.0 38 2022-09-30
money supply m3 411810 402891 2 16 100.0 100.0 70 2022-09-30

Ireland’s interest rate Ireland’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.05 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.05.Ireland’s central bank balance sheet decreased to 136426.0 by -6.96% on November 2020 from 146628.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s central bank balance sheet increased by 26.22%. Ireland’s central bank balance sheet trend is down since the current value of 136426.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 128468.0.Ireland’s money supply m2 icnreased to 283855.0 by 2.77% on October 2020 from 276191.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s money supply m2 increased by 17.28%. Ireland’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 283855.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 262417.0.

Ireland Employment

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
EEI - Employment Composite 100 100.5 -0 -10 -100.0 -100.0 13 2022-09-30
unemployment rate 4.2 4.3 -2 -26 -100.0 -100.0 13 2022-07-31
youth unemployment rate 11.6 11.1 5 5 100.0 100.0 80 2022-08-31
long term unemployment rate 1.2 1.7 -29 -29 -100.0 -100.0 44 2022-06-30

Ireland’s EEI – Employment Composite icnreased to 94.1 by 1243.0% on January 2021 from 83.7 in the previous . On a year on year basis Ireland’s EEI – Employment Composite decreased by -683.0%. Ireland’s EEI – Employment Composite trend is down since the current value of 94.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 90.0083.Ireland’s unemployment rate icnreased to 7.5 by 4.17% on November 2020 from 7.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s unemployment rate increased by 59.57%. Ireland’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 7.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5.75833.Ireland’s youth unemployment rate icnreased to 20.2 by 5.21% on November 2020 from 19.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s youth unemployment rate increased by 88.78%. Ireland’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 20.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 15.4833.Ireland’s long term unemployment rate icnreased to 1.4 by 7.69% on February 2020 from 1.3 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s long term unemployment rate decreased by -56.25%. Ireland’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 1.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.88333.

Ireland Trade & Capital Flows

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
current account 15848 17043 -7 -149 100.0 100.0 23 2022-06-30
current account to gdp 13.9 -2.7 -615 -396 100.0 100.0 0 2021-01-31
exports 19560300 19497200 0.32 33.03 UP UP 98.33 2022-11-20
imports 12980900 12490600 3.93 56.04 UP UP 98.33 2022-11-20
balance of trade 6579380 7006630 -6.1 3.05 UP UP 81.67 2022-11-20

Ireland’s current account icnreased to 12700.0 by 8.89% on May 2020 from 11663.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s current account decreased by -11.77%. Ireland’s current account trend is down since the current value of 12700.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 153.833.Ireland’s current account to gdp decreased to -9.4 by -188.68% on January 2019 from 10.6 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s current account to gdp increased by 44.62%. Ireland’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of -9.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -1.05.Ireland’s exports decreased to 12096000.0 by -13.03% on October 2020 from 13908000.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s exports decreased by -15.23%. Ireland’s exports trend is down since the current value of 12096000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 13209000.0.Ireland’s imports icnreased to 7327000.0 by 16.45% on October 2020 from 6292000.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s imports decreased by -11.69%. Ireland’s imports trend is down since the current value of 7327000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7080920.0.Ireland’s balance of trade decreased to 4768000.0 by -37.39% on October 2020 from 7615000.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s balance of trade decreased by -20.16%. Ireland’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of 4768000.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6127880.0.

Ireland Reserves

Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
foreign exchange reserves 12547.1 12880.4 -2.59 15.65 100.0 100.0 96.6667 2022-10-31
gold reserves 12.04 9.52 26 101 100.0 100.0 100 2022-03-31

Ireland’s foreign exchange reserves icnreased to 6161.4 by 1.21% on November 2020 from 6087.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 20.15%. Ireland’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 6161.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 5448.48.Ireland’s gold reserves Ireland’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 6.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6.0.Ireland’s government debt decreased to 204044.0 by -4.19% on October 2019 from 212960.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s government debt increased by 1.66%. Ireland’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 204044.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 210493.0.Ireland’s government debt to gdp decreased to 58.8 by -7.55% on January 2019 from 63.6 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s government debt to gdp increased by 146.03%. Ireland’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 58.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 82.1083.Ireland’s external debt icnreased to 2645560.0 by 4.21% on January 2020 from 2538760.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s external debt increased by 27.97%. Ireland’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 2645560.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2314720.0.

Ireland Debt

Debt Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
government debt 236595 235130 1 11 100.0 100.0 52 2022-06-30
government debt to gdp 56 58.4 -4 -9 -100.0 -100.0 0 2021-01-31
external debt 2954440 2912740 1 24 100.0 100.0 76 2022-06-30

Ireland’s government debt decreased to 204044.0 by -4.19% on October 2019 from 212960.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s government debt increased by 1.66%. Ireland’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 204044.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 210493.0.Ireland’s government debt to gdp decreased to 58.8 by -7.55% on January 2019 from 63.6 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s government debt to gdp increased by 146.03%. Ireland’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 58.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 82.1083.Ireland’s external debt icnreased to 2645560.0 by 4.21% on January 2020 from 2538760.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s external debt increased by 27.97%. Ireland’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 2645560.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2314720.0.

Ireland Banking activity

Fiscal Policy Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
interbank rate 1.704 1.173 45 -408 100.0 100.0 2 2022-10-31
bank lending rate 2.4 1.8 33 243 100.0 100.0 100 2022-09-30
loans to private sector 33027 32763 1 -9 100.0 -100.0 15 2022-09-30

Ireland’s interbank rate icnreased to -0.433 by 15.47% on August 2019 from -0.375 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s interbank rate increased by 35.74%. Ireland’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of -0.433 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.331167.Ireland’s bank lending rate On a year on year basis Ireland’s bank lending rate decreased by -11.11%. Ireland’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 0.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.9.Ireland’s loans to private sector decreased to 36943.0 by -0.92% on October 2020 from 37286.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis Ireland’s loans to private sector decreased by -7.23%. Ireland’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 36943.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 38435.4.

 

Ireland macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the Ireland economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses Ireland Manufacturing ESI Order Books to gauge economic growth expectations and Ireland Manufacturing ESI Selling Price expectations of next months to gauge inflation expectations. Ireland’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

  • Inflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Rising inflation – Monetary Policy response: Hawkish
  • Stagflation: Slowing Economic Growth with Rising Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dilemma
  • Disinflation boom: Accelerating Economic growth with Slowing Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Neutral
  • Deflation Bust: : Slowing Economic Growth with Falling Inflation – Monetary Policy response: Dovish
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