Monitor and predict the growth prospects and potential risks of the Tobacco industry by examining the financial and macroeconomic factors affecting it and the latest Tobacco news tracked by MacroVar. Sign Up Free to get notified instantly on the latest Tobacco updates and get full access to MacroVar advanced analytics of Global Financial Markets, Economies and Financial Risk.
Click to explore the factors and the financial models used by MacroVar to analyze the Tobacco industry trend, growth prospects and risks.
Tobacco industry Markets
|US Tobacco industry||US.TOBACCO||713.54||0.5||0.25||0.65787||52.6627||-2.11||-2.02||1.7||-0.118|
|Europe Tobacco industry||EU.TOBACCO||3082.75||-1||-1||-1.48137||25.849||-6.88||-14.33||-18.3||-0.0678|
|US Tobacco Credit Spreads||US.TOBACCO.CR||165.08||-0.5||-0.75||-0.97536||34.0604||1.08||3.15||-1.82||-0.07381|
Tobacco industry News
Tobacco industry Analysis
MacroVar monitors the performance, risk, trend and momentum of the Tobacco industry by examining the stock and credit performance of major Tobacco companies across the US, Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia Pacific. Tobacco Stock performance is monitored by analyzing STOXX equity indices of major Tobacco companies while Tobacco credit performance is monitored by analyzing Markit iBoxx credit indices reflecting the performance of the Tobacco high yield corporate bond market.
MacroVar also monitors fundamental indicators closely linked to the Tobacco sector published monthly including analysis of sector specific PMI indicators, components of Manufacturing & Services PMI and Economic Sentiment Indicators analysis.
MacroVar also monitors other factors closely related to the Tobacco industry like closely related financial markets or macroeconmic indicators.
MacroVar estimates the following signals:: Tobacco momentum, Tobacco trend, Tobacco oscillator, Tobacco RSI and Tobacco returns.
Tobacco industry Description
The sector of tobacco includes companies engaged in manufacturing and distribution of cigarettes, cigars and other tobacco products. Includes tobacco plantations.
Tobacco industry MomentumMomentum is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVar Tobacco momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Tobacco momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Tobacco . The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Tobacco return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Tobacco momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Tobacco momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
Tobacco industry trendTobacco trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Tobacco trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Tobacco Closing price vs Tobacco moving average (MA) calculation: If Tobacco is greater than Tobacco MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Tobacco Moving average slope calculation: if current Tobacco moving average is higher than the previous MA, Tobacco upward slope +1, else -1
Tobacco trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Tobacco trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Tobacco trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The Tobacco 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Tobacco is in an uptrend when Tobacco price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Tobacco 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Tobacco oscillator and Tobacco RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
Tobacco industry oscillatorThe Tobacco oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the currentTobacco price versus Tobacco 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Tobacco oscillator is:
Tobacco oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Tobacco simple moving average price) / (250 days Tobacco price standard deviation)
Tobacco oversold conditions
Tobacco is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Tobacco is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Tobacco oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Tobacco oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest ofTobacco quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Tobacco RSI.
Tobacco overbought conditions
Tobacco is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Tobacco is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Tobacco oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Tobacco quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
Tobacco RSI indicatorThe RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Tobacco is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. DuringTobacco uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
Tobacco industry returnsMacroVar calculates Tobacco returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:
Tobacco returns = (Tobacco Closing Price – Tobacco Previous Price)/(Tobacco Previous Price)