Travel & Leisure industry
Monitor and predict the growth prospects and potential risks of the Travel & Leisure industry by examining the financial and macroeconomic factors affecting it and the latest Travel & Leisure news tracked by MacroVar. Sign Up Free to get notified instantly on the latest Travel & Leisure updates and get full access to MacroVar advanced analytics of Global Financial Markets, Economies and Financial Risk.
Click to explore the factors and the financial models used by MacroVar to analyze the Travel & Leisure industry trend, growth prospects and risks.
Travel & Leisure industry Markets
|US Travel & Leisure industry||US.TRAVEL||1429.02||0.5||0.75||1.42765||57.497||0.76||-1.43||-5.45||-0.03662|
|Europe Travel & Leisure industry||EU.TRAVEL||716.49||1||0.75||1.23327||67.8226||-1.4||-7.6||-12.22||-0.124|
|STOXX Asia/Pacific 600 Travel & Leisure||APAC.TRAVEL||193.59||-0.5||-0.25||-0.17716||41.7411||-3.91||-6.55||-6.29||-0.20991|
|Eastern Europe Travel & Leisure||EEU.TRAVEL||75.87||1||0.75||0.55666||70.5984||-2.47||-9.26||-3.73||-0.23888|
|US Travel & Leisure Credit Spreads||US.TRAVEL.CR||117.3||-1||-0.75||-1.12382||25.0959||0.47||3.26||-2.88||0.05798|
|Europe Travel & Leisure Credit Spreads||EU.TRAVEL.CR||87.4||-0.5||-1||-0.97827||30.9638||1.23||2.82||2.37||-0.01853|
Travel & Leisure industry News
Travel & Leisure industry Analysis
MacroVar monitors the performance, risk, trend and momentum of the Travel & Leisure industry by examining the stock and credit performance of major Travel & Leisure companies across the US, Europe, Eastern Europe and Asia Pacific. Travel & Leisure Stock performance is monitored by analyzing STOXX equity indices of major Travel & Leisure companies while Travel & Leisure credit performance is monitored by analyzing Markit iBoxx credit indices reflecting the performance of the Travel & Leisure high yield corporate bond market.
MacroVar also monitors fundamental indicators closely linked to the Travel & Leisure sector published monthly including analysis of sector specific PMI indicators, components of Manufacturing & Services PMI and Economic Sentiment Indicators analysis.
MacroVar also monitors other factors closely related to the Travel & Leisure industry like closely related financial markets or macroeconmic indicators.
MacroVar estimates the following signals:: Travel & Leisure momentum, Travel & Leisure trend, Travel & Leisure oscillator, Travel & Leisure RSI and Travel & Leisure returns.
Travel & Leisure industry Description
The supersector of Travel & Leisure includes subsectors of Airlines, Gambling, Hotels, Recreational Services, Restaurants & Bars and Travel & Tourism.
The subsector of Airlines includes companies providing primarily passenger air transport. Excludes airports, which are classified under Transportation Services.
The subsector of Gambling includes providers of gambling and casino facilities. Includes online casinos, racetracks and the manufacturers of pachinko machines and casi-no and lottery equipment.
The subsector of Hotels includes Operators and managers of hotels, motels, lodges, resorts, spas and campgrounds.
The subsector of Recreational Services includes providers of leisure facilities and services, including fitness centers, cruise lines, movie theaters and sports teams.
The subsector of Restaurants & Bars includes operators of restaurants, fast-food facilities, coffee shops and bars. Includes integrated brewery companies and catering companies.
The subsector of travel & Tourism includes companies providing travel and tourism related services, including travel agents, online travel reservation services, automobile rental firms and companies that primarily provide passenger transportation, such as buses, taxis, passenger rail and ferry companies.
Travel & Leisure industry MomentumMomentum is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVar Travel & Leisure momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Travel & Leisure momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Travel & Leisure . The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Travel & Leisure return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Travel & Leisure momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Travel & Leisure momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
Travel & Leisure industry trendTravel & Leisure trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Travel & Leisure trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Travel & Leisure Closing price vs Travel & Leisure moving average (MA) calculation: If Travel & Leisure is greater than Travel & Leisure MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Travel & Leisure Moving average slope calculation: if current Travel & Leisure moving average is higher than the previous MA, Travel & Leisure upward slope +1, else -1
Travel & Leisure trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Travel & Leisure trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Travel & Leisure trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The Travel & Leisure 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Travel & Leisure is in an uptrend when Travel & Leisure price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Travel & Leisure 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Travel & Leisure oscillator and Travel & Leisure RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
Travel & Leisure industry oscillatorThe Travel & Leisure oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the currentTravel & Leisure price versus Travel & Leisure 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Travel & Leisure oscillator is:
Travel & Leisure oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Travel & Leisure simple moving average price) / (250 days Travel & Leisure price standard deviation)
Travel & Leisure oversold conditions
Travel & Leisure is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Travel & Leisure is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Travel & Leisure oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Travel & Leisure oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest ofTravel & Leisure quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Travel & Leisure RSI.
Travel & Leisure overbought conditions
Travel & Leisure is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Travel & Leisure is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Travel & Leisure oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Travel & Leisure quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
Travel & Leisure RSI indicatorThe RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Travel & Leisure is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. DuringTravel & Leisure uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
Travel & Leisure industry returnsMacroVar calculates Travel & Leisure returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:
Travel & Leisure returns = (Travel & Leisure Closing Price – Travel & Leisure Previous Price)/(Travel & Leisure Previous Price)