Copper

Copper closed down by -1.09% to 4.26 on 23 January 2021 and +1.82% on a weekly basis. Copper momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. Copper trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. Copper momentum exhaustion is 2.20468 indicating Copper is oversold.Copper RSI is 68.5933 .

Copper Chart

Copper

Copper Statistics

MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the Copper. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the Copper trading signals presented in the Copper statistics table.

Security Symbol Last Momentum Trend Oscillator RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
Copper HG 4.26 1 1 2.20468 68.5933 -1.09 1.82 -5.08 0.28043

Copper closed at 4.26 on 23 January 2021. Copper trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. Copper momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. Copper momentum exhaustion is 2.20468 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating Copper is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. Copper RSI was last calculated at 68.5933. Copper moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 3.56 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 3.32043 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 2.80654 in an uptrend. Copper annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -1.09%, and weekly return was last recorded at 1.82%. Copper histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 18.5691%, Copper alpha None, Copper beta None and Copper maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor Copper statistics based on historical data since 1970.

Copper Factors

Copper

Factor Symbol Last Value Predicted Value R2 MacroVar Signal
Global PMI Y/Y vs Copper Y/Y COPPER.FACT.GLOBALPMI 3.485 63.4513 1.17761
Global PMI vs Copper Y/Y COPPER.FACT.GLOBALPMI
Copper vs AUDUSD YY AUDUSD.FACT.COPPER
Copper vs CNHUSD YY CNHUSD.FACT.COPPER

Copper Trading Signals


MacroVar estimates the following signals: Copper momentum, Copper trend, Copper oscillator, Copper RSI and Copper returns.

Copper Momentum

Momentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.

MacroVarCopper momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The Copper momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the Copper. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Copper return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. Copper HG momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when Copper momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

Copper trend

Copper trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. Copper trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. Copper Closing price vs Copper moving average (MA) calculation: If Copper is greater than Copper MA value is +1, else -1, 2. Copper Moving average slope calculation: if current Copper moving average is higher than the previous MA, Copper upward slope +1, else -1
Copper trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. Copper trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when Copper trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.

The most important trend indicator
The Copper 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. Copper is in an uptrend when Copper price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the Copper 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the Copper oscillator and Copper RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.

Copper oscillator

The Copper oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current Copper price versus Copper 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the Copper oscillator is:
Copper oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days Copper simple moving average price) / (250 days Copper price standard deviation)

Copper oversold conditions
Copper is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the Copper is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the Copper oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the Copper oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of Copper quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the Copper RSI.
Copper overbought conditions
Copper is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the Copper is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the Copper oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the Copper quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.

Copper RSI indicator

The RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when Copper is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During Copper uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.

Copper returns

MacroVar calculates Copper returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:

Copper returns = (Copper Closing Price – Copper Previous Price)/(Copper Previous Price)
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