US Cotton closed down by -1.34% to 88.65 on 23 January 2021 and +3.36% on a weekly basis. US Cotton momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 indicating positive momentum. US Cotton trend is +100.0/100 indicating a positive trend. US Cotton momentum exhaustion is 2.33634 indicating US Cotton is oversold.US Cotton RSI is 75.2993 .
US Cotton Chart
US Cotton Statistics
MacroVar multi-factor statistical models monitor financial factors which are used to analyze and predict the US Cotton. Click here to explore the financial factors monitored and their current signals.
Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the US Cotton trading signals presented in the US Cotton statistics table.
US Cotton closed at 88.65 on 23 January 2021. US Cotton trend was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating a positive trend based on MacroVar models. US Cotton momentum was last calculated at +100.0/100 (range: -100 to +100) indicating positive momentum. US Cotton momentum exhaustion is 2.33634 (normal range: -2.5 to +2.5, overbought values: greater than 2.5, oversold values: less than 2.5) indicating US Cotton is oversold and a possible reversal is imminent. US Cotton RSI was last calculated at 75.2993. US Cotton moving averages were last recorded as follows: 1-month moving average: 75.819 in an uptrend , 1-quarter moving average: 72.3033 in an uptrend and 1-year moving average: 64.4059 in an uptrend. US Cotton annual return was last recorded at None%, daily return was last recorded at -1.34%, and weekly return was last recorded at 3.36%. US Cotton histrorical 20-day volatility was last recorded at 17.7019%, US Cotton alpha None, US Cotton beta None and US Cotton maximum drawdown was recorded at None%. MacroVar models monitor US Cotton statistics based on historical data since 1970.
US Cotton Factors
|Factor||Symbol||Last Value||Predicted Value||R2||MacroVar Signal|
US Cotton Trading Signals
MacroVar estimates the following signals: US Cotton momentum, US Cotton trend, US Cotton oscillator, US Cotton RSI and US Cotton returns.
US Cotton MomentumMomentum trading is used to capture moves in shorter timeframes than trends. Momentum is the relative change occurring in markets. Relative change is different to a trend. A long-term trend can be up but the short-term momentum of a specific market can be 0. If a market moves down and then moves up and then moves back down the net relative change in price is 0. That means momentum is 0. A short-term positive momentum, with a long-term downtrend results in markets with no momentum.
MacroVarUS Cotton momentum signal ranges from -100 to +100. The US Cotton momentum signal is derived as the mean value from 4 calculations for the US Cotton. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1 Day (1 trading day), 1 Week (5 trading days), 1 Month (20 trading days), 3 Months (60 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. US Cotton return is calculated for the specific timeframe and 2. if the return calculated is higher than 0, signal value output is 1 else signal value is -1. US Cotton CT momentum signal is the aggregate of the the 4 values. A technical momentum rollover is identified when US Cotton momentum signal moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
US Cotton trendUS Cotton trend signal ranges from -100 to +100. US Cotton trend indicator is the mean value of the 8 calculations described below. The timeframes monitored are the following: 1-month (20 trading days), 3-months (60 trading days), 6-months (125 trading days), 1-year (250 trading days)
For each timeframe, the following calculations are performed: 1. US Cotton Closing price vs US Cotton moving average (MA) calculation: If US Cotton is greater than US Cotton MA value is +1, else -1, 2. US Cotton Moving average slope calculation: if current US Cotton moving average is higher than the previous MA, US Cotton upward slope +1, else -1
US Cotton trend model can be used as a trend strength indicator. US Cotton trend strength values ranging between +75 and +100 or -75 and -100 show strong trend strength.
A technical trend rollover is identified when US Cotton trend strength indicator moves from positive to negative value or vice-versa.
The most important trend indicator
The US Cotton 52-week simple moving average and its slope are the most important indicators defining a market’s trend. US Cotton is in an uptrend when US Cotton price is higher than the 52-week moving average and the US Cotton 52-week moving average has an upward slope. If fundamentals of the market have not changed and the moving average slope is still in uptrend, a price drop signifies a market correction and not a change of trend. Traders should watch oscillators like the US Cotton oscillator and US Cotton RSI to buy the dip and still follow the trend. The moving average slope turn signifies a change of trend.
US Cotton oscillatorThe US Cotton oscillator estimated by MacroVar is the z-score of the current US Cotton price versus US Cotton 1-year simple moving average price. The formula for the US Cotton oscillator is:
US Cotton oscillator = (Current Price – 250 trading days US Cotton simple moving average price) / (250 days US Cotton price standard deviation)
US Cotton oversold conditions
US Cotton is oversold when it is subject to a persistent downward pressure due to extreme fund outflows. When the US Cotton is oversold it is often due for a rebound. Values of the US Cotton oscillator lower than -2.5 signify oversold conditions. It must be noted that the US Cotton oscillator must be analyzed ibn conjunction with the rest of US Cotton quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the US Cotton RSI.
US Cotton overbought conditions
US Cotton is overbought when it is subject to a persistent upward pressure due to extreme fund inflows. When the US Cotton is overbought it is often due for a correction. Values of the US Cotton oscillator higher than +2.5 signify overbought conditions. It must be noted that the MacroVar oscillator must be compared to the rest of the US Cotton quantitative factors. Traders should pay less attention to overbought or oversold conditions during strong trends. They should pay close attention during counter trends and all combined with the RSI.
US Cotton RSI indicatorThe RSI indicator measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI indicator oscillates between 0 and 100. RSI is a useful indicator during normal trending market conditions when an asset price oscillates around its trend value. During big moves and strong trends however, like short squeezes or price spikes RSI and other oscillators don’t work.
During normal trend market conditions and when US Cotton is in a downtrend RSI values between 50-60 signify overbought conditions before the downtrend is ready to resume. During US Cotton uptrend, RSI values of 40 to 50 signify oversold conditions before the uptrend is ready to resume. It is strongly not recommended to enter a position when the RSI is “overbought” and falling or vice versa.
US Cotton returnsMacroVar calculates US Cotton returns for the following timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly. The formula for calculating returns is:
US Cotton returns = (US Cotton Closing Price – US Cotton Previous Price)/(US Cotton Previous Price)