US Inflation research & data
MacroVar monitors US inflation dynamics, inflation subcomponents as welll as leading indicators used to forecast US inflation short-term dynamics.MacroVar database provides free access to US inflation indicators and its subcomponents using API/Excel for further resesarch and analysis.
US Inflation Overview
ISM manufacturing prices paid and NMI services prices paid are very important leading indicators for predicting US inflation in the next three months. MacroVar monitors other leading indicators like Zillow rent index to predict the shelter component of US inflation and Indeed job wages and postings tracker to monitor wage dynamics of US Inflation.
| Indicator | Symbol | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| inflation cpi | us.inflationcpi | 2.7 | 2.6 | 4 | -13 |  |
| core inflation rate | us.coreinflationrate | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0 | -18 |  |
| Produce Prices YoY | us.producerpricesch | 3.0 | 2.6 | 15 | 275 | |
| - All Items | US.cpi.allitems | 2.49 | 2.41 | 3 | -19 | |
| -- Food | US.cpi.food | 2.16 | 1.97 | 10 | -14 | |
| --- Food at Home | US.cpi.foodathome | 1.43 | 1.1 | 31 | 20 | |
| ---- Cereals and Bakery Products | US.cpi.cereals | -0.39 | 0.6 | -164 | -114 | |
| ---- Meats, Poultry, Fish, and Eggs | US.cpi.meats | 3.53 | 2.11 | 67 | -1063 | |
| ---- Dairy and Related Products | US.cpi.dairy | 1.08 | 1.26 | -14 | -178 | |
| ---- Fruits and Vegetables | US.cpi.fruits | 1.04 | 0.9 | 16 | 250 | |
| ---- Nonalcoholic Beverages and Beverage Materials | US.cpi.nonalcoholic | 2.72 | 2.35 | 16 | 8 | |
| ---- Other Food at Home | US.cpi.other | 0.48 | 0.53 | -10 | -81 | |
| --- Food Away from Home | US.cpi.food | 3.31 | 3.36 | -1 | -32 | |
| -- Energy | US.cpi.energy | -2.94 | -3.34 | -12 | 80 | |
| --- Energy Commodities | US.cpi.energycommodities | -7.8 | -8.9 | -12 | 310 | |
| ---- Fuel Oil and Other Fuels | US.cpi.fuel | -8.38 | -11.03 | -24 | -11 | |
| ---- Motor Fuel | US.cpi.mootorfuel | -7.83 | -8.85 | -11 | 448 | |
| ----- Gasoline | US.cpi.gasoline | -7.55 | -8.58 | -12 | 618 | |
| --- Energy Services | US.cpi.energyservices | 2.49 | 2.94 | -15 | -300 | |
| ---- Electricity | US.cpi.electricity | 2.48 | 3.51 | -29 | -8 | |
| ---- Utility (Piped) Gas Service | US.cpi.utility | 2.42 | 0.78 | 211 | -118 | |
| - All Items Less Food and Energy | US.cpi.all | 3.02 | 2.98 | 1 | -17 | |
| -- Commodities Less Food and Energy Commodities | US.cpi.commodities | -0.59 | -0.96 | -39 | -427 | |
| --- Apparel | US.cpi.apparel | 1.14 | 0.95 | 20 | -4 | |
| --- New Vehicles | US.cpi.newvehicles | -0.87 | -1.26 | -31 | -206 | |
| --- Used Cars and Trucks | US.cpi.used | -4.59 | -5.89 | -22 | 148 | |
| --- Medical Care Commodities | US.cpi.medical | 2.69 | 2.79 | -4 | 6298 | |
| --- Alcoholic Beverages | US.cpi.alcoholicbeverages | 1.65 | 1.67 | -1 | -31 | |
| --- Tobacco and Smoking Products | US.cpi.tobacco | 6.68 | 5.6 | 19 | -15 | |
| -- Services Less Energy Services | US.cpi.services | 4.18 | 4.29 | -3 | -15 | |
| --- Shelter | US.cpi.shelter | 4.35 | 4.43 | -2 | -24 | |
| ---- Rent of Primary Residence | US.cpi.rent | 3.95 | 4.14 | -5 | -35 | |
| ---- Owners' Equivalent Rent of Residences | US.cpi.ownersrent | 4.48 | 4.68 | -4 | -24 | |
| --- Medical Care Services | US.cpi.medical | 3.19 | 3.32 | -4 | -416 | |
| ---- Hospital and Related Services | US.cpi.hospital | 3.76 | 4.19 | -10 | -98 | |
| --- Transportation Services | US.cpi.transportationservices | 7.62 | 7.01 | 9 | -38 | |
| ---- Motor Vehicle Maintenance and Repair | US.cpi.motor | 7.62 | 7.01 | 9 | -38 | |
| ---- Airline Fares | US.cpi.airliirlinefares | 3.82 | 4.32 | -12 | -138 | |
Key Subcomponents of US Inflation
Food and Beverages
Description: This category includes all types of food and beverages purchased for consumption at home or away from home. It covers everything from groceries to dining out at restaurants.
Analysis: The Food and Beverages component is highly sensitive to weather conditions, agricultural productivity, and supply chain disruptions. Changes in global commodity prices, such as grains and livestock, significantly impact this subcomponent. Monitoring trends in this area can reveal shifts in consumer habits and the impact of external factors like trade policies and climate change on food prices.
Housing
Description: Housing costs encompass rent, owners' equivalent rent (an estimate of the rent homeowners would pay), and utilities. This category is a significant part of the CPI as housing costs constitute a large portion of consumer expenses.
Analysis: Housing inflation can be driven by factors such as interest rates, housing supply, and demand, and regional economic conditions. Rising housing prices can indicate a booming economy or a shortage in housing supply. Conversely, falling prices may signal economic downturns or improvements in housing availability. Monitoring housing inflation helps gauge economic stability and consumer financial health.
Transportation
Description: Transportation costs include vehicle purchases, fuel, public transportation, and vehicle maintenance. This category tracks the costs associated with all forms of transportation.
Analysis: Transportation inflation is closely tied to oil prices and technological advancements in the automotive industry. Fuel prices, which fluctuate due to geopolitical events and changes in global oil supply and demand, play a crucial role. Additionally, advancements in electric vehicles and public transportation infrastructure can impact transportation costs over time. Understanding these trends can provide insights into consumer behavior and environmental policy impacts.
Medical Care
Description: This category covers medical services, health insurance, prescription drugs, and medical supplies. It reflects the out-of-pocket expenses consumers pay for healthcare.
Analysis: Medical care inflation often outpaces overall inflation due to the rising costs of healthcare services, advancements in medical technology, and increasing insurance premiums. Analyzing this subcomponent helps identify trends in healthcare access, the burden of medical expenses on consumers, and the effectiveness of health policies and reforms.
Education and Communication
Description: This component includes tuition, school fees, and communication services such as telephone and internet services. It reflects the costs associated with education and communication needs.
Analysis: Education and communication costs can be influenced by government policies, technological advancements, and market competition. Rising education costs may highlight challenges in access to education, while changes in communication expenses can reflect technological progress and regulatory impacts. Monitoring these trends provides insights into the evolving landscape of education and communication services.
Recreation
Description: Recreation covers expenses related to entertainment, hobbies, and leisure activities. This includes spending on items such as sporting goods, recreational vehicles, and admissions to events.
Analysis: Recreation inflation can be affected by economic conditions, consumer confidence, and cultural trends. In times of economic prosperity, consumers may spend more on recreational activities, while during downturns, discretionary spending may decrease. Analyzing this subcomponent helps understand consumer sentiment and lifestyle changes.
Apparel
Description: This category includes clothing and footwear for men, women, and children. It tracks the prices of various apparel items.
Analysis: Apparel inflation is influenced by fashion trends, global supply chains, and production costs. Changes in labor costs, trade policies, and consumer preferences can impact clothing prices. Monitoring apparel inflation provides insights into the retail industry's health and shifting consumer tastes.