United States Economy

US’s gdp growth annual decreased to -2.8 by -68.89% on May 2020 from -9.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United States’s gdp growth annual decreased by -216.67%. United States’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -2.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.991667.US’s inflation cpi decreased to 1.2 by -14.29% on October 2020 from 1.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s inflation cpi decreased by -33.33%. United States’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.38333.US’s unemployment rate decreased to 6.7 by -2.9% on November 2020 from 6.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s unemployment rate increased by 91.43%. United States’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 6.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.85.

United States Financial Markets

MarketSymbolLastMomTrendExhRSI1D%1W%1M%1Y%
S&P 500SPX4358.6900.75-2.672.32-0.362.644.090.35798
S&P 500 ETFSPY434.550.511.5549358.155-0.392.74.060.14736
US Dollar Index (DXY)DXY92.750-1-0.535243.81760.371.032.36-0.07489
United States 10-Year Bond YieldUS.10Y1.29-0.50.250.1130751.7114-4.09-13.19-19.85-0.49589
US 5-year bond yieldUS.5Y0.74-0.5-0.25-0.3708346.288-7.38-16-13.02-0.78074
US 30-year bond yieldUS.30Y1.94-0.50.250.4281449.6785-1.72-8.01-15.24-0.28429
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFTLT148.1-0.5-0.5-0.4151343.34660.843.17.070.13041
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate BondLQD135.27-0.50.50.828646.4450.31.113.350.06823
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate BondHYG87.730.50.750.9365661.2482-0.140.080.29-0.01112
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETFIEF117.13-0.5-0.5-0.0390745.38450.551.522.840.07499
SPDR Barclays High Yield BondJNK109.6410.750.977162.5206-0.120.130.58-0.00992
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP)TIP128.70.511.3297774.31140.070.811.280.08835
US 2-year bond yieldUS.2Y0.21-1-1-0.5522342.4592-6.67-20.7527.97-0.92399
US Yield CurveUS.YC1.08011.7485855.6394-3.57-11.55-25.281.91241
US Yield Curve 2s5sUS.YC250.5300.51.3863950.8504-7.67-13.96-22.823.08475
US Yield Curve 5s10sUS.YC5100.55011.8434858.6679-0.18-9.69-27.561.73529
US Yield Curve 5s30sUS.YC5301.200.751.2176852.83292.13-2.28-16.560.9709
US Yield Curve 10s30sUS.YC10300.65-1-0.50.5272145.03874.175.01-4.260.5283
US Yield Curve 2s30sUS.YC02301.7300.751.3144852.3027-1.09-6.18-18.581.14607

S&P 500 closed down by -0.0008% to 4226.52 on 11 June 2021 and +0.00533% on a weekly basis. S&P 500 momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 indicating positive momentum. S&P 500 trend is +0.75/100 indicating a positive trend. S&P 500 momentum exhaustion is -2.6 indicating S&P 500 is oversold.S&P 500 ETF closed up by 0.00689% to 371.33 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.00226% on a weekly basis. S&P 500 ETF momentum was last calculated at +0.5/100 indicating positive momentum. S&P 500 ETF trend is +1.0/100 indicating a positive trend. S&P 500 ETF momentum exhaustion is 1.55493 indicating S&P 500 ETF is oversold.US Dollar Index (DXY) closed up by 0.00308% to 90.068 on 23 January 2021 and +0.00194% on a weekly basis. US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 indicating positive momentum. US Dollar Index (DXY) trend is -1.0/100 indicating a negative trend. US Dollar Index (DXY) momentum exhaustion is -0.5352 indicating US Dollar Index (DXY) is oversold.United States Credit Default Swaps closed up by 0.0% to 12.9 on 23 January 2021 and +0.032% on a weekly basis. United States Credit Default Swaps momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 indicating positive momentum. United States Credit Default Swaps trend is -0.5/100 indicating a negative trend. United States Credit Default Swaps momentum exhaustion is -1.80102 indicating United States Credit Default Swaps is oversold.United States 10-Year Bond Yield closed down by -0.00756% to 0.919 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.03263% on a weekly basis. United States 10-Year Bond Yield momentum was last calculated at -0.5/100 indicating negative momentum. United States 10-Year Bond Yield trend is +0.25/100 indicating a positive trend. United States 10-Year Bond Yield momentum exhaustion is 0.11307 indicating United States 10-Year Bond Yield is oversold.US 5-year bond yield closed down by -0.02162% to 0.362 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.02688% on a weekly basis. US 5-year bond yield momentum was last calculated at -0.5/100 indicating negative momentum. US 5-year bond yield trend is -0.25/100 indicating a negative trend. US 5-year bond yield momentum exhaustion is -0.37083 indicating US 5-year bond yield is oversold.US 30-year bond yield closed down by -0.00603% to 1.649 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.0202% on a weekly basis. US 30-year bond yield momentum was last calculated at -0.5/100 indicating negative momentum. US 30-year bond yield trend is +0.25/100 indicating a positive trend. US 30-year bond yield momentum exhaustion is 0.42814 indicating US 30-year bond yield is oversold.CDX North American High Yield Index (5-Years) closed up by 0.00407% to 296.0 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.04207% on a weekly basis. CDX North American High Yield Index (5-Years) momentum was last calculated at -0.5/100 indicating negative momentum. CDX North American High Yield Index (5-Years) trend is -0.25/100 indicating a negative trend. CDX North American High Yield Index (5-Years) momentum exhaustion is -0.69915 indicating CDX North American High Yield Index (5-Years) is oversold.CDX North American Investment Grade Index (5-Years) closed up by 0.00394% to 51.0 on 23 January 2021 and +-0.08602% on a weekly basis. CDX North American Investment Grade Index (5-Years) momentum was last calculated at +0.0/100 indicating positive momentum. CDX North American Investment Grade Index (5-Years) trend is -0.25/100 indicating a negative trend. CDX North American Investment Grade Index (5-Years) momentum exhaustion is -0.48304 indicating CDX North American Investment Grade Index (5-Years) is oversold.

 

United States Macroeconomic model

MacroVar United States Macro model analyzes economic growth and inflation to assess the current economic conditions. Economic growth and inflation expectations are the two most important economic indicators used to assess economic conditions, forecast financial market returns and policymaker response. United States’s current macroeconomic conditions are analyzed below the chart. Click here to learn more about MacroVar Macro model and the leading economic indicators used for analysis.

United States Macro Model

United States News

United States Economy

Economic Activity OverviewActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
gdp growth annual0.4-2.4-1.16667-0.8709681.0-1.00.2166672020-11-01
inflation cpi5.450.0881.01.00.9666672021-06-30
unemployment rate6.160.0166667-0.585034-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
Business & Consumer Forecast OverviewActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
ism manufacturing index61.260.70.008237230.4199541.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing index72.462.70.1547050.5947141.01.012021-05-31
manufacturing pmi62.162.1024.7UPUP99.172021-08-06
NY Empire state Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
United States Dallas Fed Services Index52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Kansas Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
Import Dry Bulk Freight Index(CDFI)1676.291671.710.002739710.07807631.01.012021-08-06
Coastal Bulk (Coal) Freight Index (Daily Index)1042.991034.340.008362820.06715031.01.00.7166672021-08-06
Coastal Bulk Freight Index CBF-IDX-SSE1239.031229.260.00794787-0.1419641.0-1.00.6666672021-08-06
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index SCF4225.864196.240.00705870.2639641.01.012021-08-06
Containerized Freight Index CCF3006.822930.030.02620790.4087621.01.012021-08-06
non manufacturing pmi62.763.7-0.01569860.51.01.012021-04-30
services pmi70.164.70.08346210.8693331.01.00.9833332021-05-30
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment88.384.90.04004710.2298051.01.012021-04-01
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Index97.2930.04516130.308211.01.012021-04-30
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expected Index82.779.70.03764120.1797431.01.012021-04-30
Reserves & Outstanding DebtActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
government debt28529400281990000.01171670.07750821.01.00.7166672021-06-30
government debt to gdp107.6106.90.006548180.5893651.01.00.752019-02-28
external debt21764800213583000.01903240.1347121.01.00.52021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves1418101411200.004889460.07237651.01.00.8333332021-05-31
gold reserves8133.468133.5-0.000004917930-1.0-1.00.552020-07-01
TradeActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
current account-188484-1809170.04182580.671417-1.0-1.00.9833332020-10-01
current account to gdp-3.1-2.20.409091-0.340426-1.01.002020-01-31
Monetary PolicyActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
interest rate0.251.25-0.8-0.9-1.0-1.00.01666672020-03-15
money supply m220370.120108.60.01300440.1398791.01.00.7833332021-05-31
Fiscal PolicyActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
Government budget-226000-660000-0.657576-0.6937761.01.00.152021-04-30
government revenues449000463745-0.03179550.8643931.01.00.9666672021-06-30
fiscal expenditure6233595956980.0464346-0.4358231.0-1.00.01666672021-06-30

 

US’s gdp growth annual decreased to -2.8 by -68.89% on May 2020 from -9.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United States’s gdp growth annual decreased by -216.67%. United States’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -2.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.991667.US’s inflation cpi decreased to 1.2 by -14.29% on October 2020 from 1.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s inflation cpi decreased by -33.33%. United States’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.38333.US’s unemployment rate decreased to 6.7 by -2.9% on November 2020 from 6.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s unemployment rate increased by 91.43%. United States’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 6.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.85.US’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 57.1 by 0.71% on December 2020 from 56.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s manufacturing pmi increased by 8.97%. United States’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 57.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.1.US’s NY Empire state Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s NY Empire state Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s NY Empire state Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s United States Dallas Fed Services Index decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s United States Dallas Fed Services Index increased by 8.32%. United States’s United States Dallas Fed Services Index trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index increased by 8.32%. United States’s U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s US Richmond Fed Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s US Richmond Fed Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s US Richmond Fed Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s US Kansas Fed Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s US Kansas Fed Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s US Kansas Fed Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s US Dallas Fed Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s US Dallas Fed Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s US Dallas Fed Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s services pmi decreased to 55.3 by -5.31% on December 2020 from 58.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s services pmi increased by 4.73%. United States’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 55.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.7417.US’s composite pmi decreased to 55.7 by -4.95% on December 2020 from 58.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s composite pmi increased by 5.69%. United States’s composite pmi trend is down since the current value of 55.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.7917.US’s building permits icnreased to 1635.0 by 5.89% on November 2020 from 1544.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s building permits increased by 8.28%. United States’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 1635.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1417.5.US’s consumer confidence icnreased to 80.7 by 4.94% on December 2020 from 76.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s consumer confidence decreased by -18.73%. United States’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of 80.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 81.5417.

United States Business activity

Business ActivityActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
manufacturing pmi62.162.1024.7UPUP99.172021-08-06
NY Empire state Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
United States Dallas Fed Services Index52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Kansas Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
Import Dry Bulk Freight Index(CDFI)1676.291671.710.002739710.07807631.01.012021-08-06
Coastal Bulk (Coal) Freight Index (Daily Index)1042.991034.340.008362820.06715031.01.00.7166672021-08-06
Coastal Bulk Freight Index CBF-IDX-SSE1239.031229.260.00794787-0.1419641.0-1.00.6666672021-08-06
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index SCF4225.864196.240.00705870.2639641.01.012021-08-06
Containerized Freight Index CCF3006.822930.030.02620790.4087621.01.012021-08-06
services pmi70.164.70.08346210.8693331.01.00.9833332021-05-30
ism manufacturing index61.260.70.008237230.4199541.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing index72.462.70.1547050.5947141.01.012021-05-31
composite pmi63.768.7-0.07278020.3298541.01.00.952021-06-30
zew economic sentiment index553941.03414.02UPUP91.672021-01-12
ECRI US Coincident Index195.5194.50.005141390.1949881.01.012021-04-01
ECRI US Lagging Index213.8212.80.00469925-0.06310251.0-1.00.08333332021-04-01
ECRI US Weekly Leading Index159.5159.10.002514140.05629141.01.00.7166672021-05-21
productivity112.734111.2610.01323910.06596191.01.00.7833332021-01-01

US’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 57.1 by 0.71% on December 2020 from 56.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s manufacturing pmi increased by 8.97%. United States’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 57.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.1.US’s NY Empire state Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s NY Empire state Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s NY Empire state Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s United States Dallas Fed Services Index decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s United States Dallas Fed Services Index increased by 8.32%. United States’s United States Dallas Fed Services Index trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index increased by 8.32%. United States’s U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s US Richmond Fed Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s US Richmond Fed Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s US Richmond Fed Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s US Kansas Fed Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s US Kansas Fed Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s US Kansas Fed Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s US Dallas Fed Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s US Dallas Fed Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s US Dallas Fed Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s services pmi decreased to 55.3 by -5.31% on December 2020 from 58.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s services pmi increased by 4.73%. United States’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 55.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.7417.US’s ism manufacturing index icnreased to 59.3 by 704.0% on January 2021 from 55.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism manufacturing index increased by 2277.0%. United States’s ism manufacturing index trend is down since the current value of 59.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.675.US’s ism non manufacturing index decreased to 56.6 by -208.0% on January 2021 from 57.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism non manufacturing index increased by 347.0%. United States’s ism non manufacturing index trend is down since the current value of 56.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 53.9833.US’s composite pmi decreased to 55.7 by -4.95% on December 2020 from 58.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s composite pmi increased by 5.69%. United States’s composite pmi trend is down since the current value of 55.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.7917.US’s zew economic sentiment index icnreased to 55.0 by 4103.0% on January 2021 from 39.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s zew economic sentiment index increased by 41402.0%. United States’s zew economic sentiment index trend is down since the current value of 55.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 40.5667.US’s ECRI US Coincident Index icnreased to 181.8 by 17.0% on January 2021 from 181.5 in the previous Weekly. On a year on year basis United States’s ECRI US Coincident Index decreased by -283.0%. United States’s ECRI US Coincident Index trend is down since the current value of 181.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 178.642.US’s ECRI US Lagging Index decreased to 213.5 by -33.0% on January 2021 from 214.2 in the previous Weekly. On a year on year basis United States’s ECRI US Lagging Index decreased by -599.0%. United States’s ECRI US Lagging Index trend is down since the current value of 213.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 222.025.US’s ECRI US Weekly Leading Index icnreased to 147.5 by 34.0% on January 2021 from 147.0 in the previous Weekly. On a year on year basis United States’s ECRI US Weekly Leading Index increased by 612.0%. United States’s ECRI US Weekly Leading Index trend is down since the current value of 147.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 143.458.US’s productivity icnreased to 112.341 by 1.14% on July 2020 from 111.079 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United States’s productivity increased by 7.17%. United States’s productivity trend is down since the current value of 112.341 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 107.746.

United States ISM Manufacturing Index Analysis

Tankan IndicatorsActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
ism manufacturing index61.260.70.008237230.4199541.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing New Orders Index6764.30.04199071.106921.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Prices Index8889.6-0.01785711.156861.01.00.9666672021-05-31
ism manufacturing Production Index58.562.5-0.0640.762048-1.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Employment index50.955.1-0.0762250.585671.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Supplier Deliveries Index78.8750.05066670.1588241.01.00.82021-05-31
ism manufacturing Inventories Index50.846.50.09247310.007936511.01.00.4666672021-05-31
ism manufacturing Customers inventories Index2828.4-0.0140845-0.393939-1.0-1.00.03333332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index70.668.20.03519060.8481681.01.012021-05-31
ism manufacturing Exports Index55.454.90.009107470.4025321.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism manufacturing Imports Index5452.20.03448280.307506-1.01.00.9666672021-05-31

US’s ism manufacturing index icnreased to 59.3 by 704.0% on January 2021 from 55.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism manufacturing index increased by 2277.0%. United States’s ism manufacturing index trend is down since the current value of 59.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.675.US’s ism manufacturing New Orders Index icnreased to 67.9 by 1279.0% on January 2021 from 60.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism manufacturing New Orders Index increased by 3829.0%. United States’s ism manufacturing New Orders Index trend is down since the current value of 67.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.9417.US’s ism manufacturing Prices Index icnreased to 65.5 by 430.0% on January 2021 from 62.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism manufacturing Prices Index increased by 4396.0%. United States’s ism manufacturing Prices Index trend is down since the current value of 65.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.2833.US’s ism manufacturing Production Index icnreased to 63.0 by 328.0% on January 2021 from 61.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism manufacturing Production Index increased by 3636.0%. United States’s ism manufacturing Production Index trend is down since the current value of 63.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 51.1333.US’s ism manufacturing Employment index icnreased to 53.2 by 726.0% on January 2021 from 49.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism manufacturing Employment index increased by 1153.0%. United States’s ism manufacturing Employment index trend is down since the current value of 53.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 43.6917.US’s ism manufacturing Supplier Deliveries Index icnreased to 60.5 by 254.0% on January 2021 from 59.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism manufacturing Supplier Deliveries Index increased by 2222.0%. United States’s ism manufacturing Supplier Deliveries Index trend is down since the current value of 60.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 59.4833.US’s ism manufacturing Inventories Index icnreased to 51.9 by 1019.0% on January 2021 from 47.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism manufacturing Inventories Index increased by 613.0%. United States’s ism manufacturing Inventories Index trend is down since the current value of 51.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.1583.US’s ism manufacturing Customers inventories Index decreased to 36.7 by -317.0% on January 2021 from 37.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism manufacturing Customers inventories Index decreased by -2322.0%. United States’s ism manufacturing Customers inventories Index trend is down since the current value of 36.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 42.4167.US’s ism manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index icnreased to 55.7 by 91.0% on January 2021 from 55.2 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index increased by 2630.0%. United States’s ism manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index trend is down since the current value of 55.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 47.2333.US’s ism manufacturing Exports Index icnreased to 55.7 by 258.0% on January 2021 from 54.3 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism manufacturing Exports Index increased by 1052.0%. United States’s ism manufacturing Exports Index trend is down since the current value of 55.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.5333.US’s ism manufacturing Imports Index icnreased to 58.1 by 759.0% on January 2021 from 54.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism manufacturing Imports Index increased by 2826.0%. United States’s ism manufacturing Imports Index trend is down since the current value of 58.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.8917.


United States ISM Non Manufacturing Index Analysis

Tankan IndicatorsActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
ism non manufacturing index72.462.70.1547050.5947141.01.012021-05-31
ism non manufacturing new orders index63.963.20.01107590.525061.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing prices index80.676.80.04947920.449641.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing business Activity66.262.70.05582140.6146341.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing employment55.358.8-0.05952380.7389941.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing supplier deliveries Index70.466.10.06505290.05074631.01.00.6333332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventories Index51.549.10.04887980.0729167-1.01.00.8833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing order backlog Index61.155.70.09694790.316811.01.012021-05-31
ism non manufacturing New Export Orders6058.60.02389080.4457831.01.00.9833332021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Imports index50.455.7-0.09515260.153318-1.01.00.952021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index40.546.8-0.134615-0.264973-1.0-1.00.01666672021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Deliveries Index70.466.10.06505290.05074631.01.00.652021-05-01

US’s ism non manufacturing index decreased to 56.6 by -208.0% on January 2021 from 57.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism non manufacturing index increased by 347.0%. United States’s ism non manufacturing index trend is down since the current value of 56.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 53.9833.US’s ism non manufacturing new orders index decreased to 58.8 by -439.0% on January 2021 from 61.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism non manufacturing new orders index increased by 576.0%. United States’s ism non manufacturing new orders index trend is down since the current value of 58.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 55.4833.US’s ism non manufacturing prices index icnreased to 63.9 by 831.0% on January 2021 from 59.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism non manufacturing prices index increased by 1290.0%. United States’s ism non manufacturing prices index trend is down since the current value of 63.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 57.6583.US’s ism non manufacturing business Activity decreased to 61.2 by -286.0% on January 2021 from 63.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism non manufacturing business Activity increased by 737.0%. United States’s ism non manufacturing business Activity trend is down since the current value of 61.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 55.175.US’s ism non manufacturing employment decreased to 50.1 by -328.0% on January 2021 from 51.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism non manufacturing employment decreased by -670.0%. United States’s ism non manufacturing employment trend is down since the current value of 50.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 46.9.US’s ism non manufacturing supplier deliveries Index icnreased to 56.2 by 237.0% on January 2021 from 54.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism non manufacturing supplier deliveries Index increased by 705.0%. United States’s ism non manufacturing supplier deliveries Index trend is down since the current value of 56.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 58.3167.US’s ism non manufacturing Inventories Index icnreased to 53.1 by 881.0% on January 2021 from 48.8 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism non manufacturing Inventories Index increased by 515.0%. United States’s ism non manufacturing Inventories Index trend is down since the current value of 53.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 49.8917.US’s ism non manufacturing order backlog Index icnreased to 54.4 by 858.0% on January 2021 from 50.1 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism non manufacturing order backlog Index increased by 1216.0%. United States’s ism non manufacturing order backlog Index trend is down since the current value of 54.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 51.0583.US’s ism non manufacturing New Export Orders icnreased to 53.7 by 209.0% on January 2021 from 52.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism non manufacturing New Export Orders increased by 740.0%. United States’s ism non manufacturing New Export Orders trend is down since the current value of 53.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.225.US’s ism non manufacturing Imports index icnreased to 52.5 by 1266.0% on January 2021 from 46.6 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism non manufacturing Imports index increased by 825.0%. United States’s ism non manufacturing Imports index trend is down since the current value of 52.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.5833.US’s ism non manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index decreased to 51.1 by -776.0% on January 2021 from 55.4 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism non manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index decreased by -1035.0%. United States’s ism non manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index trend is down since the current value of 51.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 55.2583.US’s ism non manufacturing Deliveries Index icnreased to 52.5 by 194.0% on January 2021 from 51.5 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s ism non manufacturing Deliveries Index increased by 194.0%. United States’s ism non manufacturing Deliveries Index trend is down since the current value of 52.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 51.5.


United States Conference Board Indicators

+

Tankan IndicatorsActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
Leading Economic Indicator Conference Board index113.3111.50.01614350.1692471.01.012021-04-30
Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) - Conference Board104.1103.80.002890170.1193551.01.012021-04-30
Lagging Economic Indicator (Lagging) - Conference Board104.7102.80.0184825-0.0935065-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30

GDP nosedived in Q2, logging the worst contraction on record as coronavirus containment measures pummeled household and capital spending. Turning to Q3, available data hints at subdued conditions. Consumer confidence deteriorated for the second month running in August, while the manufacturing PMI remained in contractionary territory in the same month. In addition, travel


United States Consumer activity

Consumer ActivityActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment88.384.90.04004710.2298051.01.012021-04-01
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Index97.2930.04516130.308211.01.012021-04-30
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expected Index82.779.70.03764120.1797431.01.012021-04-30
US Consumer Confidence Index117.2117.5-0.002553190.3643771.01.00.9833332021-05-31
total vehicle sales18.517.70.04519771.151161.01.012021-04-30
consumer confidence80.885.5-0.05497080.114483-1.01.00.952021-07-31
car registrations386.98412.61-0.06211681.117281.01.012021-04-30

US’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment icnreased to 80.7 by 494.0% on January 2021 from 76.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment decreased by -1873.0%. United States’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment trend is down since the current value of 80.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 81.5417.US’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Index icnreased to 90.0 by 345.0% on January 2021 from 87.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Index decreased by -2208.0%. United States’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Index trend is down since the current value of 90.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 91.0833.US’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expected Index icnreased to 74.6 by 582.0% on January 2021 from 70.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expected Index decreased by -1609.0%. United States’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expected Index trend is down since the current value of 74.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 75.4083.US’s US Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 88.6 by -463.0% on January 2021 from 92.9 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s US Consumer Confidence Index decreased by -3089.0%. United States’s US Consumer Confidence Index trend is down since the current value of 88.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 101.217.US’s total vehicle sales decreased to 15.55 by -4.01% on November 2020 from 16.2 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s total vehicle sales decreased by -8.21%. United States’s total vehicle sales trend is down since the current value of 15.55 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14.4858.US’s consumer confidence icnreased to 80.7 by 4.94% on December 2020 from 76.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s consumer confidence decreased by -18.73%. United States’s consumer confidence trend is down since the current value of 80.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 81.5417.US’s car registrations decreased to 313.36 by -7.91% on October 2020 from 340.29 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s car registrations decreased by -16.32%. United States’s car registrations trend is down since the current value of 313.36 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 308.888.

United States Manufacturing activity

Manufacturing ActivityActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
manufacturing pmi62.162.1024.7UPUP99.172021-08-06
NY Empire state Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
United States Dallas Fed Services Index52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Kansas Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing52.156.3-0.07460040.08316011.01.00.4166672020-11-30
Import Dry Bulk Freight Index(CDFI)1676.291671.710.002739710.07807631.01.012021-08-06
Coastal Bulk (Coal) Freight Index (Daily Index)1042.991034.340.008362820.06715031.01.00.7166672021-08-06
Coastal Bulk Freight Index CBF-IDX-SSE1239.031229.260.00794787-0.1419641.0-1.00.6666672021-08-06
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index SCF4225.864196.240.00705870.2639641.01.012021-08-06
Containerized Freight Index CCF3006.822930.030.02620790.4087621.01.012021-08-06
industrial production16.5115.5-2.012271.01.00.22021-04-30
industrial production mom0.72.4-0.708333-1.05512-1.01.00.5166672021-04-30
durable goods orders2.3-0.8-3.875-0.847682-1.0-1.00.5833332021-05-31
durable goods orders ex defense1.70.52.4-0.886667-1.0-1.00.5166672021-05-31
durable goods orders ex transportation0.31.7-0.823529-0.925-1.0-1.00.6166672021-05-31
capacity utilization74.974.39140.006836810.1660021.01.012021-04-30

US’s manufacturing pmi icnreased to 57.1 by 0.71% on December 2020 from 56.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s manufacturing pmi increased by 8.97%. United States’s manufacturing pmi trend is down since the current value of 57.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 50.1.US’s NY Empire state Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s NY Empire state Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s NY Empire state Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s United States Dallas Fed Services Index decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s United States Dallas Fed Services Index increased by 8.32%. United States’s United States Dallas Fed Services Index trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index increased by 8.32%. United States’s U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s US Richmond Fed Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s US Richmond Fed Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s US Richmond Fed Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s US Kansas Fed Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s US Kansas Fed Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s US Kansas Fed Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s US Dallas Fed Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s US Dallas Fed Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s US Dallas Fed Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing decreased to 52.1 by -7.46% on November 2020 from 56.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing increased by 8.32%. United States’s US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing trend is down since the current value of 52.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.2083.US’s industrial production icnreased to -5.5 by 10.0% on November 2020 from -5.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s industrial production increased by 1275.0%. United States’s industrial production trend is down since the current value of -5.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -6.575.US’s industrial production mom decreased to 0.4 by -55.56% on November 2020 from 0.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s industrial production mom decreased by -55.56%. United States’s industrial production mom trend is down since the current value of 0.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -0.375.US’s durable goods orders decreased to 0.9 by -50.0% on November 2020 from 1.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s durable goods orders decreased by -134.62%. United States’s durable goods orders trend is down since the current value of 0.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.775.US’s durable goods orders ex defense decreased to 0.7 by -12.5% on November 2020 from 0.8 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s durable goods orders ex defense decreased by -36.36%. United States’s durable goods orders ex defense trend is down since the current value of 0.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.608333.US’s durable goods orders ex transportation decreased to 0.4 by -78.95% on November 2020 from 1.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s durable goods orders ex transportation increased by 100.0%. United States’s durable goods orders ex transportation trend is down since the current value of 0.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.441667.US’s capacity utilization icnreased to 73.3109 by 0.41% on November 2020 from 73.0124 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s capacity utilization decreased by -5.49%. United States’s capacity utilization trend is down since the current value of 73.3109 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 72.0996.

United States Services activity

Services ActivityActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
services pmi70.164.70.08346210.8693331.01.00.9833332021-05-30

US’s services pmi decreased to 55.3 by -5.31% on December 2020 from 58.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s services pmi increased by 4.73%. United States’s services pmi trend is down since the current value of 55.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 48.7417.


United States Retail Sector

Retail ActivityActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
retail sales51.2290.765517-3.572861.01.00.052021-04-30
retail sales MoM10.7-2.9-4.68966-2.273811.01.00.2333332021-03-31
retail sales ex autos-0.89-1.08889-0.947368-1.01.00.4166672021-04-30

US’s retail sales decreased to 4.1 by -25.45% on November 2020 from 5.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s retail sales increased by 24.24%. United States’s retail sales trend is down since the current value of 4.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.675.US’s retail sales MoM icnreased to -1.1 by 1000.0% on November 2020 from -0.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s retail sales MoM decreased by -320.0%. United States’s retail sales MoM trend is down since the current value of -1.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.625.US’s retail sales ex autos icnreased to -0.9 by 800.0% on November 2020 from -0.1 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s retail sales ex autos increased by 200.0%. United States’s retail sales ex autos trend is down since the current value of -0.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.5.

United States Construction Sector

Construction ActivityActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
building permits15981683-0.0505050.233025-1.01.00.952021-06-30
new home sales10218460.2068560.6683011.01.012021-03-31
housing starts164315460.06274260.2906521.01.00.9166672021-06-30
mortgage rate3.093.15-0.0190476-0.034375-1.0-1.00.6333332021-07-09
nahb housing market index83820.01219511.766671.01.012021-04-30
nfib business optimism index99.898.20.01629330.09790981.01.00.8666672021-04-30

US’s building permits icnreased to 1635.0 by 5.89% on November 2020 from 1544.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s building permits increased by 8.28%. United States’s building permits trend is down since the current value of 1635.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1417.5.US’s new home sales decreased to 841.0 by -11.01% on November 2020 from 945.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s new home sales increased by 20.83%. United States’s new home sales trend is down since the current value of 841.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 804.0.US’s housing starts icnreased to 1547.0 by 1.24% on November 2020 from 1528.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s housing starts increased by 12.84%. United States’s housing starts trend is down since the current value of 1547.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1387.42.US’s mortgage rate decreased to 2.86 by -1.38% on January 2021 from 2.9 in the previous Weekly. On a year on year basis United States’s mortgage rate decreased by -4.67%. United States’s mortgage rate trend is down since the current value of 2.86 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.93417.US’s nahb housing market index decreased to 86.0 by -4.44% on December 2020 from 90.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s nahb housing market index increased by 13.16%. United States’s nahb housing market index trend is down since the current value of 86.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 70.0.US’s nfib business optimism index decreased to 101.4 by -2.5% on October 2020 from 104.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s nfib business optimism index decreased by -0.98%. United States’s nfib business optimism index trend is down since the current value of 101.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 100.242.

United States GDP

ActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
Real GDP19086.418794.40.01553650.02999921.01.00.2666672021-01-01
gdp growth annual0.4-2.4-1.16667-0.8709681.0-1.00.2166672020-11-01
gdp20936.621433.2-0.02316970.4230191.01.002020-01-31
gdp growth6.44.30.4883720.6842111.01.00.8666672020-11-01

US’s Real GDP icnreased to 18596.5 by 7.48% on July 2020 from 17302.5 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United States’s Real GDP increased by 2.26%. United States’s Real GDP trend is down since the current value of 18596.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 18698.9.US’s gdp growth annual decreased to -2.8 by -68.89% on May 2020 from -9.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United States’s gdp growth annual decreased by -216.67%. United States’s gdp growth annual trend is down since the current value of -2.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.991667.US’s gdp icnreased to 21427.7 by 4.12% on January 2019 from 20580.2 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis United States’s gdp increased by 48.27%. United States’s gdp trend is down since the current value of 21427.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17385.0.US’s gdp growth decreased to 33.4 by -206.37% on May 2020 from -31.4 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United States’s gdp growth increased by 1051.72%. United States’s gdp growth trend is down since the current value of 33.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.68333.

United States inflation

ActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
inflation cpi5.450.0881.01.00.9666672021-06-30
core inflation rate4.53.80.1842112.751.01.012021-06-30
consumer price index cpi270.98268.550.009048590.05324121.01.012021-06-30
Producer Price Index123.8123.10.005686430.06174961.01.012021-04-30
PPI Index6.24.20.47619-5.133331.01.00.03333332021-04-30
inflation expectations4.840.20.7910451.01.012021-06-30
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate2.282.210.03167420.03636361.01.00.5833332021-06-14

US’s inflation cpi decreased to 1.2 by -14.29% on October 2020 from 1.4 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s inflation cpi decreased by -33.33%. United States’s inflation cpi trend is down since the current value of 1.2 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.38333.US’s core inflation rate On a year on year basis United States’s core inflation rate decreased by -30.43%. United States’s core inflation rate trend is down since the current value of 1.6 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.75833.US’s consumer price index cpi icnreased to 260.82 by 0.19% on November 2020 from 260.33 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s consumer price index cpi increased by 1.16%. United States’s consumer price index cpi trend is down since the current value of 260.82 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 258.576.US’s Producer Price Index icnreased to 119.4 by 0.08% on November 2020 from 119.3 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s Producer Price Index increased by 0.67%. United States’s Producer Price Index trend is down since the current value of 119.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 118.35.US’s PPI Index icnreased to 0.8 by 60.0% on November 2020 from 0.5 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s PPI Index decreased by -20.0%. United States’s PPI Index trend is down since the current value of 0.8 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.233333.US’s inflation expectations icnreased to 2.96 by 4.23% on November 2020 from 2.84 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s inflation expectations increased by 25.96%. United States’s inflation expectations trend is down since the current value of 2.96 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.75667.

United States Government Policy

ActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
government budget-14.9-4.62.239133.80645-1.0-1.00.9166672020-01-31
Government budget-226000-660000-0.657576-0.6937761.01.00.152021-04-30
government revenues449000463745-0.03179550.8643931.01.00.9666672021-06-30
fiscal expenditure6233595956980.0464346-0.4358231.0-1.00.01666672021-06-30

US’s Government budget decreased to -145266.0 by -48.86% on November 2020 from -284071.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s Government budget decreased by -30.44%. United States’s Government budget trend is down since the current value of -145266.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -268199.0.US’s government revenues decreased to 219553.0 by -7.63% on November 2020 from 237698.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s government revenues decreased by -2.5%. United States’s government revenues trend is down since the current value of 219553.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 283875.0.US’s fiscal expenditure decreased to 364819.0 by -30.08% on November 2020 from 521769.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s fiscal expenditure decreased by -15.95%. United States’s fiscal expenditure trend is down since the current value of 364819.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 552046.0.

United States Monetary Policy

ActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
interest rate0.251.25-0.8-0.9-1.0-1.00.01666672020-03-15
money supply m060419006042100-0.00003310110.1732921.01.00.7833332021-05-31
money supply m119221.718935.20.01513062.79681.01.00.952021-05-31
money supply m220370.120108.60.01300440.1398791.01.00.7833332021-05-31

US’s interest rate decreased to 0.25 by -80.0% on March 2020 from 1.25 in the previous Daily. On a year on year basis United States’s interest rate decreased by -90.0%. United States’s interest rate trend is down since the current value of 0.25 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.89583.US’s money supply m2 icnreased to 19086.0 by 1.46% on November 2020 from 18811.6 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s money supply m2 increased by 25.14%. United States’s money supply m2 trend is down since the current value of 19086.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 17374.9.

United States Employment

ActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
jobless claims385406-0.0517241-0.45927-1.0-1.00.22021-05-29
continuing jobless claims37313794-0.0166052-0.279034-1.0-1.00.4833332021-04-30
unemployment rate6.160.0166667-0.585034-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
youth unemployment rate1111.1-0.00900901-0.59854-1.0-1.00.01666672021-04-30
long term unemployment rate2.472.330.06008581.839081.01.00.8666672021-06-30
job offers920991930.001740450.6906551.01.00.9833332021-05-31

US’s jobless claims decreased to 803.0 by -9.98% on December 2020 from 892.0 in the previous Weekly. On a year on year basis United States’s jobless claims decreased by -5.42%. United States’s jobless claims trend is down since the current value of 803.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 786.667.US’s continuing jobless claims decreased to 5337.0 by -3.09% on December 2020 from 5507.0 in the previous Weekly. On a year on year basis United States’s continuing jobless claims decreased by -55.45%. United States’s continuing jobless claims trend is down since the current value of 5337.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7076.5.US’s unemployment rate decreased to 6.7 by -2.9% on November 2020 from 6.9 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s unemployment rate increased by 91.43%. United States’s unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 6.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 7.85.US’s youth unemployment rate decreased to 11.5 by -1.71% on November 2020 from 11.7 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s youth unemployment rate increased by 43.75%. United States’s youth unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 11.5 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 14.8.US’s long term unemployment rate icnreased to 2.46 by 11.31% on November 2020 from 2.21 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s long term unemployment rate increased by 232.43%. United States’s long term unemployment rate trend is down since the current value of 2.46 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.095.US’s job offers icnreased to 6652.0 by 2.43% on October 2020 from 6494.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s job offers decreased by -8.99%. United States’s job offers trend is down since the current value of 6652.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 6327.92.

United States Trade & Capital Flows

ActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
current account-188484-1809170.04182580.671417-1.0-1.00.9833332020-10-01
current account to gdp-3.1-2.20.409091-0.340426-1.01.002020-01-31
exports2000301875890.06632050.08057741.01.00.9166672021-03-31
imports2744782581070.06342720.1812771.01.012021-03-31
balance of trade-74448-705180.05573050.575853-1.0-1.00.9666672021-03-31
capital flows146400726381.01547-0.5879871.0-1.00.4333332021-03-31
foreign direct investment53916474570.1361020.2524621.01.00.6166672021-01-01

US’s current account icnreased to -178513.0 by 10.63% on July 2020 from -161362.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United States’s current account increased by 79.04%. United States’s current account trend is down since the current value of -178513.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -128856.0.US’s current account to gdp decreased to -2.3 by -4.17% on January 2019 from -2.4 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis United States’s current account to gdp decreased by -54.9%. United States’s current account to gdp trend is down since the current value of -2.3 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -2.75.US’s exports icnreased to 182015.0 by 2.23% on October 2020 from 178045.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s exports decreased by -13.49%. United States’s exports trend is down since the current value of 182015.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 181862.0.US’s imports icnreased to 245138.0 by 2.09% on October 2020 from 240129.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s imports decreased by -3.27%. United States’s imports trend is down since the current value of 245138.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 233814.0.US’s balance of trade icnreased to -63123.0 by 1.68% on October 2020 from -62083.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s balance of trade increased by 46.7%. United States’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -63123.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -51951.8.US’s bank lending rate decreased to 3.25 by -14.7% on April 2020 from 3.81 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s bank lending rate decreased by -40.91%. United States’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 3.25 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.82917.US’s capital flows decreased to -10350.0 by -87.15% on October 2020 from -80542.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s capital flows decreased by -83.32%. United States’s capital flows trend is down since the current value of -10350.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 47136.2.US’s foreign direct investment icnreased to 40052.0 by 50.23% on May 2020 from 26661.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United States’s foreign direct investment decreased by -9.65%. United States’s foreign direct investment trend is down since the current value of 40052.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 47158.7.

United States Reserves

ActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
foreign exchange reserves1418101411200.004889460.07237651.01.00.8333332021-05-31
gold reserves8133.468133.5-0.000004917930-1.0-1.00.552020-07-01

US’s foreign exchange reserves icnreased to 141191.0 by 1.23% on November 2020 from 139478.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s foreign exchange reserves increased by 10.36%. United States’s foreign exchange reserves trend is down since the current value of 141191.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 134133.0.US’s gold reserves decreased to 8133.46 by -0.0% on July 2020 from 8133.5 in the previous Quarterly. United States’s gold reserves trend is down since the current value of 8133.46 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8133.56.US’s government debt icnreased to 27446300.0 by 1.15% on November 2020 from 27135500.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s government debt increased by 18.94%. United States’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 27446300.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 25458400.0.US’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 106.9 by 1.33% on January 2019 from 105.5 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis United States’s government debt to gdp increased by 71.04%. United States’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 106.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 96.925.US’s external debt icnreased to 21314700.0 by 0.02% on May 2020 from 21310600.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United States’s external debt increased by 12.53%. United States’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 21314700.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20149400.0.

United States Debt

DebtActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
government debt28529400281990000.01171670.07750821.01.00.7166672021-06-30
government debt to gdp107.6106.90.006548180.5893651.01.00.752019-02-28
external debt21764800213583000.01903240.1347121.01.00.52021-01-01

US’s government debt icnreased to 27446300.0 by 1.15% on November 2020 from 27135500.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s government debt increased by 18.94%. United States’s government debt trend is down since the current value of 27446300.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 25458400.0.US’s government debt to gdp icnreased to 106.9 by 1.33% on January 2019 from 105.5 in the previous Yearly. On a year on year basis United States’s government debt to gdp increased by 71.04%. United States’s government debt to gdp trend is down since the current value of 106.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 96.925.US’s external debt icnreased to 21314700.0 by 0.02% on May 2020 from 21310600.0 in the previous Quarterly. On a year on year basis United States’s external debt increased by 12.53%. United States’s external debt trend is down since the current value of 21314700.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 20149400.0.

United States Banking activity

Fiscal PolicyActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
interbank rate0.130.14-0.0714286-0.35-1.0-1.00.01666672021-06-02
bank lending rate3.253.81-0.146982-0.409091-1.0-1.00.01666672020-04-30
loans to private sector2487.892546.98-0.0232-0.142125-1.0-1.00.03333332021-06-30

US’s interbank rate On a year on year basis United States’s interbank rate decreased by -4.9%. United States’s interbank rate trend is down since the current value of 2.085 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.04083.US’s balance of trade icnreased to -63123.0 by 1.68% on October 2020 from -62083.0 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s balance of trade increased by 46.7%. United States’s balance of trade trend is down since the current value of -63123.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of -51951.8.US’s bank lending rate decreased to 3.25 by -14.7% on April 2020 from 3.81 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s bank lending rate decreased by -40.91%. United States’s bank lending rate trend is down since the current value of 3.25 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 4.82917.US’s loans to private sector decreased to 2644.23 by -1.94% on November 2020 from 2696.59 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s loans to private sector increased by 12.16%. United States’s loans to private sector trend is down since the current value of 2644.23 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2687.15.

United States Federal Reserve Indicators

SELECT * FROM xmacs where amcrid in (2745,3037,2753,2751) order by field(amcrid,2745,3037,2753,2751)
Tankan IndicatorsActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
Effective Federal Funds Rate0.060.07-0.1428570.2-1.01.00.352021-05-01
Federal Funds Rate0.090.0900UPDown602021-01-12
Federal Funds Target Range - Lower Limit110-0.333333-1.0-1.00.1083332020-03-14

US’s Federal Funds Rate United States’s Federal Funds Rate trend is down since the current value of 0.09 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.09.US’s Federal Funds Target Range – Lower Limit On a year on year basis United States’s Federal Funds Target Range – Lower Limit decreased by -3333.0%. United States’s Federal Funds Target Range – Lower Limit trend is down since the current value of 1.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.0.US’s Federal Funds Target Range – Upper Limit United States’s Federal Funds Target Range – Upper Limit trend is down since the current value of 0.25 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 0.25.

United States Case Shiller Indicators

Tankan IndicatorsActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
case shiller home price index257.1251.790.0210890.1489991.01.012021-04-30
S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index248.14244.2581.597.54UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index235.46231.7151.617.93UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Sales Pair Counts180935194048-6.7617.31UPUP91.672021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller AZ-Phoenix Home Price Index221.7217.9891.712.71UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller CA-Los Angeles Home Price Index312.44308.5261.278.37UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller CA-San Diego Home Price Index293286.8282.1511.57UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller CA-San Francisco Home Price Index287.28283.4751.347.71UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller CO-Denver Home Price Index239.4236.1721.377.01UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller DC-Washington Home Price Index253.54249.8941.468.15UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller FL-Miami Home Price Index262.9258.8181.586.76UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller FL-Tampa Home Price Index242.14238.3881.588.55UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller GA-Atlanta Home Price Index164.95162.7511.356.83UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller IL-Chicago Home Price Index153.19150.7231.646.31UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller MA-Boston Home Price Index244.19239.5491.949.4UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller MI-Detroit Home Price Index135.76134.1191.236.38UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller MN-Minneapolis Home Price Index193.56190.7741.467.82UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller NC-Charlotte Home Price Index180.68178.0541.478.61UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller NV-Las Vegas Home Price Index206.1203.9391.066.41UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller NY-New York Home Price Index213.86210.1171.786.02UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller OH-Cleveland Home Price Index138.71136.0691.949.48UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller OR-Portland Home Price Index261.13257.4761.428.84UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller TX-Dallas Home Price Index205.16202.0261.556.51UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index229.41225.6031.698.39UPUP1002021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller WA-Seattle Home Price Index285.95280.0712.111.7UPUP1002021-01-13

US’s case shiller home price index icnreased to 232.53 by 1.39% on September 2020 from 229.35 in the previous Monthly. On a year on year basis United States’s case shiller home price index increased by 6.57%. United States’s case shiller home price index trend is down since the current value of 232.53 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 223.197.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index icnreased to 248.14 by 159.0% on January 2021 from 244.258 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index increased by 754.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 248.14 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 237.108.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index icnreased to 235.46 by 161.0% on January 2021 from 231.715 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index increased by 793.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 235.46 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 224.676.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Sales Pair Counts decreased to 180935.0 by -676.0% on January 2021 from 194048.0 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Sales Pair Counts increased by 1731.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Sales Pair Counts trend is down since the current value of 180935.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 142625.0.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller AZ-Phoenix Home Price Index icnreased to 221.7 by 170.0% on January 2021 from 217.989 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller AZ-Phoenix Home Price Index increased by 1271.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller AZ-Phoenix Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 221.7 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 207.993.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller CA-Los Angeles Home Price Index icnreased to 312.44 by 127.0% on January 2021 from 308.526 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller CA-Los Angeles Home Price Index increased by 837.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller CA-Los Angeles Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 312.44 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 297.455.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller CA-San Diego Home Price Index icnreased to 293.0 by 215.0% on January 2021 from 286.828 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller CA-San Diego Home Price Index increased by 1157.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller CA-San Diego Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 293.0 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 273.922.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller CA-San Francisco Home Price Index icnreased to 287.28 by 134.0% on January 2021 from 283.475 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller CA-San Francisco Home Price Index increased by 771.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller CA-San Francisco Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 287.28 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 274.681.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller CO-Denver Home Price Index icnreased to 239.4 by 137.0% on January 2021 from 236.172 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller CO-Denver Home Price Index increased by 701.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller CO-Denver Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 239.4 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 230.131.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller DC-Washington Home Price Index icnreased to 253.54 by 146.0% on January 2021 from 249.894 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller DC-Washington Home Price Index increased by 815.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller DC-Washington Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 253.54 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 241.643.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller FL-Miami Home Price Index icnreased to 262.9 by 158.0% on January 2021 from 258.818 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller FL-Miami Home Price Index increased by 676.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller FL-Miami Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 262.9 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 252.591.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller FL-Tampa Home Price Index icnreased to 242.14 by 158.0% on January 2021 from 238.388 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller FL-Tampa Home Price Index increased by 855.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller FL-Tampa Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 242.14 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 231.027.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller GA-Atlanta Home Price Index icnreased to 164.95 by 135.0% on January 2021 from 162.751 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller GA-Atlanta Home Price Index increased by 683.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller GA-Atlanta Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 164.95 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 158.784.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller IL-Chicago Home Price Index icnreased to 153.19 by 164.0% on January 2021 from 150.723 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller IL-Chicago Home Price Index increased by 631.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller IL-Chicago Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 153.19 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 146.713.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller MA-Boston Home Price Index icnreased to 244.19 by 194.0% on January 2021 from 239.549 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller MA-Boston Home Price Index increased by 940.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller MA-Boston Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 244.19 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 231.21.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller MI-Detroit Home Price Index icnreased to 135.76 by 123.0% on January 2021 from 134.119 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller MI-Detroit Home Price Index increased by 638.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller MI-Detroit Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 135.76 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 130.767.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller MN-Minneapolis Home Price Index icnreased to 193.56 by 146.0% on January 2021 from 190.774 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller MN-Minneapolis Home Price Index increased by 782.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller MN-Minneapolis Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 193.56 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 185.497.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller NC-Charlotte Home Price Index icnreased to 180.68 by 147.0% on January 2021 from 178.054 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller NC-Charlotte Home Price Index increased by 861.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller NC-Charlotte Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 180.68 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 172.241.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller NV-Las Vegas Home Price Index icnreased to 206.1 by 106.0% on January 2021 from 203.939 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller NV-Las Vegas Home Price Index increased by 641.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller NV-Las Vegas Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 206.1 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 199.846.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller NY-New York Home Price Index icnreased to 213.86 by 178.0% on January 2021 from 210.117 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller NY-New York Home Price Index increased by 602.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller NY-New York Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 213.86 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 205.702.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller OH-Cleveland Home Price Index icnreased to 138.71 by 194.0% on January 2021 from 136.069 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller OH-Cleveland Home Price Index increased by 948.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller OH-Cleveland Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 138.71 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 131.62.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller OR-Portland Home Price Index icnreased to 261.13 by 142.0% on January 2021 from 257.476 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller OR-Portland Home Price Index increased by 884.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller OR-Portland Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 261.13 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 248.6.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller TX-Dallas Home Price Index icnreased to 205.16 by 155.0% on January 2021 from 202.026 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller TX-Dallas Home Price Index increased by 651.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller TX-Dallas Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 205.16 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 197.068.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index icnreased to 229.41 by 169.0% on January 2021 from 225.603 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index increased by 839.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 229.41 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 218.638.US’s S&P/Case-Shiller WA-Seattle Home Price Index icnreased to 285.95 by 210.0% on January 2021 from 280.071 in the previous . On a year on year basis United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller WA-Seattle Home Price Index increased by 1170.0%. United States’s S&P/Case-Shiller WA-Seattle Home Price Index trend is down since the current value of 285.95 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 268.212.

United States BofA Merrill Lynch Indicators

Tankan IndicatorsActualPreviousM/M%Y/Y%TrendSlopeZS5YUpdate
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Total Return Index Value1537.631535.830.0011720.008229081.01.00.8166672021-06-04
ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II3.283.280-0.0352941-1.0-1.00.2333332021-06-04
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Option-Adjusted Spread0.90.91-0.0109890-1.0-1.00.7916672021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread3.213.23-0.00619195-0.041791-1.0-1.00.252021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield BB Option-Adjusted Spread2.322.34-0.00854701-0.0491803-1.0-1.00.252021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate BBB Option-Adjusted Spread1.111.12-0.00892857-0.0176991-1.0-1.00.4333332021-06-11
BofAML US High Yield CCC or Below Option-Adjusted Spread6.316.32-0.00158228-0.0322086-1.0-1.00.152021-06-04

US’s BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Total Return Index Value icnreased to 1498.31 by 2.0% on January 2021 from 1498.02 in the previous Daily, Close. On a year on year basis United States’s BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Total Return Index Value increased by 73.0%. United States’s BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Total Return Index Value trend is down since the current value of 1498.31 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1492.81.US’s ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II decreased to 3.92 by -25.0% on January 2021 from 3.93 in the previous Daily, Close. On a year on year basis United States’s ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II decreased by -345.0%. United States’s ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II trend is down since the current value of 3.92 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.985.US’s BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Option-Adjusted Spread icnreased to 1.05 by 96.0% on January 2021 from 1.04 in the previous Daily, Close. On a year on year basis United States’s BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Option-Adjusted Spread decreased by -278.0%. United States’s BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Option-Adjusted Spread trend is down since the current value of 1.05 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.055.US’s BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread decreased to 3.92 by -25.0% on January 2021 from 3.93 in the previous Daily, Close. On a year on year basis United States’s BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread decreased by -345.0%. United States’s BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread trend is down since the current value of 3.92 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 3.985.US’s BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield BB Option-Adjusted Spread decreased to 2.82 by -70.0% on January 2021 from 2.84 in the previous Daily, Close. On a year on year basis United States’s BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield BB Option-Adjusted Spread decreased by -408.0%. United States’s BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield BB Option-Adjusted Spread trend is down since the current value of 2.82 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 2.87083.US’s BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate BBB Option-Adjusted Spread icnreased to 1.32 by 76.0% on January 2021 from 1.31 in the previous Daily, Close. On a year on year basis United States’s BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate BBB Option-Adjusted Spread decreased by -294.0%. United States’s BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate BBB Option-Adjusted Spread trend is down since the current value of 1.32 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 1.32333.US’s BofAML US High Yield CCC or Below Option-Adjusted Spread icnreased to 8.11 by 12.0% on January 2021 from 8.1 in the previous Daily, Close. On a year on year basis United States’s BofAML US High Yield CCC or Below Option-Adjusted Spread decreased by -391.0%. United States’s BofAML US High Yield CCC or Below Option-Adjusted Spread trend is down since the current value of 8.11 is lower than the 12 month moving average of 8.27833.

United States macroeconomic model analysis

The two most important economic indicators of the United States economy are real economic growth expectations and inflation. MacroVar uses United States ISM Manufacturing PMI new orders to gauge economic growth expectations and United States ISM Manufacturing PMI prices to gauge inflation expectations. United States’s economy is healthy when it generates stable economic growth with low inflation. Policymakers (the government and the central bank) use fiscal and monetary policy to inject liquidity during slowdowns (to solve weak economic growth) and withdraw liquidity from an overheating economy (to solve high inflation).

The four economic environments

There are 4 economic environments based on economic growth and inflationary conditions. Financial assets are affected by economic growth and inflation expectations as explained in the diagram below.
MacroVar Growth Inflation Model

Read more on how to analyze a country’s macroeconomics in detail. MacroVar also provides a detailed analysis of  the global economy and the 40 largest economic in the world. Click here to learn more.
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