US Economy & US Markets Data analytics
MacroVar monitors real-time economic, financial and geopolitical developments for the US economy and US markets by analyzing financial, economic data and real-time news using statistical models. To help you forecast and analyze economic and financial developments, our team provides you with explanations of the theory and structure of our models and access to financial and economic data.
US Overview
US Overview presents the current trends and dynamics of the major US financial markets and economic indicators. Select Details to get more information for each indicator, use Factors to monitor current statistical analysis of financial & economic factors affecting the specific asset, and select research to read the latest MacroVar research for the specific asset/indicator.
| Price | 1D% | M | T | B | Details | |||||||||
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| S&P 500 | 6144.15 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 22.16 |  |
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| US 2-year bond yield | 4.26 | -0.23 | -0.01 | -7.45 | |
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| United States 10-Year Bond Yield | 4.52 | -0.29 | -0.02 | 4.46 | |
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| Manufacturing PMI | 49.4 | -1 | -1 | 3 | |
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| US Services PMI | 56.8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | |
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| Price | 1D% | M | T | B | Details | |||||||||
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| S&P 500 | 6144.15 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 22.16 | |
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| S&P 500 ETF | 612.93 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 22.1 | |
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| US 2-year bond yield | 4.26 | -0.23 | -0.01 | -7.45 | |
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| United States 10-Year Bond Yield | 4.52 | -0.29 | -0.02 | 4.46 | |
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| US Yield Curve | 0.26 | 9.09 | -0.16 | -166.5 | |
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| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 107.03 | -0.13 | -0.01 | 2.39 | |
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| Price | 1D% | M | T | B | Details | |||||||||
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| ISM Manufacturing | 50.9 | -1 | -1 | 0 | |
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| ISM Non-Manufacturing | 52.8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
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| Composite PMI | 55.4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | |
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| Manufacturing PMI | 49.4 | -1 | -1 | 3 | |
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| US Services PMI | 56.8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | |
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| GDP Growth (annual) | 2.5 | -7 | -7 | -56 | |
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| Inflation CPI | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | |
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| Unemployment rate | 4 | -2 | -2 | 8 | |
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| Price | 1D% | M | T | B | Details | |||||||||
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| US Stock Implied Volatility (VIX) | 15.27 | -0.52 | 0.01 | 13.96 | |
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| CDX North American Investment Grade | 46.71 | -0.17 | -0.02 | -12.08 | |
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| S&P 500 | 6144.15 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 22.16 | |
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| US 2-year bond yield | 4.26 | -0.23 | -0.01 | -7.45 | |
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| United States 10-Year Bond Yield | 4.52 | -0.29 | -0.02 | 4.46 | |
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| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 107.03 | -0.13 | -0.01 | 2.39 | |
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US Market News
| Time | Headlines | |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-21 18:47 | Matt Gaetz: I'll be withdrawing my name from consideration to serve as Attorney General for Trump. | |
| 2024-11-21 18:47 | Fed's Goolsbee: Over the next year, it feels like rates will end up a fair bit lower than where they are today. | |
| 2024-11-21 18:47 | Fed's Goolsbee: It may make sense to slow pace of interest rate cuts as the US central bank gets close to where rates will settle. | |
| 2024-11-21 18:47 | Fed's Goolsbee: Inflation is on its way down to 2%, and the labor market is close to stable full employment. | |
| 2024-11-18 04:54 | Musk on US Treasury Secretary options: Bessent is the 'business as usual' pick, Lutnick would be to enact change. | |
| 2024-11-18 04:54 | China’s President Xi: I am ready to work with the new Trump administration. | |
| 2024-11-18 04:54 | China’s President Xi: I am ready to work with the new Trump administration. | |
| 2024-11-18 04:54 | Trump: Chris Wright will join as Secretary for Energy. | |
| 2024-11-18 04:54 | Leveraged funds' net shorts on US 10-year treasury futures hit lowest since late July - CFTC Data. | |
| 2024-11-18 04:54 | Leveraged funds and non-commercials raise net shorts on US two-year futures to record highs - CFTC. | |
US Research
MacroVar provides research on the US economy and US financial markets. MacroVar models analyze US major financial markets (stock indexes, corporate bonds, individual sectors, credit markets, volatility, currencies) combined with US macroeconomic indicators and individual US stocks to help you monitor how the dynamics of the US economy and markets affect your investment portfolio and business.
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| Move to small caps in risk-asset bids - FJElite | 2024-07-16 20:29:38 |  View |
| Macroeconomic Indicators Daily Update | 2024-07-16 16:52:56 | View |
| Macroeconomic Indicators Daily Update | 2024-07-16 16:50:31 | View |
| Financial Markets Daily Update | 2024-07-16 16:45:25 | View |
| Financial Markets Daily Update | 2024-07-16 16:45:06 | View |
| Financial Markets Daily Update | 2024-07-16 16:43:37 | View |
| Financial Markets Daily Update | 2024-07-16 16:42:13 | View |
| Financial Markets Daily Update | 2024-07-16 16:41:05 | View |
| Financial Markets Daily Update | 2024-07-16 16:39:16 | View |
| Financial Markets Daily Update | 2024-07-16 16:18:43 | View |
| Financial Markets Daily Update | 2024-07-16 16:18:26 | View |
US Economic Overview
US economic overview presents a snapshot of US current economic conditions. You can find details for the US economy subsections by exploring the sections below.
| Indicator | Symbol | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend | Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup Economic Surprise Index | us.cesi | 25.3 | 27.7 | -9 | -40 | Down | Down |
| Composite PMI | us.comppmi | 50.4 | 52.7 | -4 | -4 | Down | Down |
| ISM manufacturing | us.ism.man | 49.0 | 50.3 | -3 | -3 | UP | Down |
| ISM manufacturing New Orders | us.ism.man.neworders | 45.2 | 48.6 | -7 | -12 | Down | Down |
| ISM manufacturing Prices | us.ism.man.prices | 69.4 | 62.4 | 11 | 24 | UP | UP |
| ISM manufacturing Employment | us.ism.man.emp | 44.7 | 47.6 | -6 | -8 | Down | Down |
| ISM Non-Manufacturing | us.ism.serv | 50.8 | 53.5 | -5 | -1 | Down | Down |
| ISM Non-Manufacturing new orders | us.ism.serv.neword | 50.4 | 52.2 | -3 | -7 | Down | Down |
| ISM Non-Manufacturing employment | us.ism.serv.emp | 46.2 | 53.9 | -14 | -5 | Down | Down |
| Manufacturing PMI | us.manpmi | 52.7 | 51.2 | 3 | 1 | UP | UP |
| NY Empire state Manufacturing | us.ny.empire.state.manufacturing | -8.1 | -20 | -60 | -58 | Down | UP |
| Chicago Purchasing Managers | us.chicago.pmi | 11.0 | 4 | 175 | -382 | UP | UP |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing | us.richmond.fed.manufacturing | 45.5 | 39.5 | 15 | 3 | UP | UP |
| Kansas Fed Manufacturing | us.kansas.fed.manufacturing | -13.0 | -9 | 44 | -750 | Down | Down |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing | us.dalls.fed.manufacturing | -16.3 | -8.3 | 96 | 13 | Down | Down |
| Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing | us.philadelphia.fed.manufacturing | 12.5 | 18.1 | 145 | 804 | UP | UP |
| US Services PMI | us.servpmi | 51.0 | 52.9 | -4 | -2 | Down | Down |
| University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment | us.uomconf | 57.0 | 64.7 | -12 | -28 | Down | Down |
| Conference Board Consumer Confidence | us.consconfidence | 92.9 | 98.3 | -5 | -10 | Down | Down |
US Manufacturing
MacroVar tracks hundreds of indicators related to US manufacturing. Our focus is on the most important leading indicators based on the ISM report and related indicators. The ISM report is the most important report reflecting the real demand of goods in the US economy.
| 1Indicator | Symbol | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend | Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM manufacturing | us.ism.man | 49.0 | 50.3 | -3 | -3 | UP | Down |
| ISM manufacturing New Orders | us.ism.man.neworders | 45.2 | 48.6 | -7 | -12 | Down | Down |
| ISM manufacturing Prices | us.ism.man.prices | 69.4 | 62.4 | 11 | 24 | UP | UP |
| ISM manufacturing Employment | us.ism.man.emp | 44.7 | 47.6 | -6 | -8 | Down | Down |
| Manufacturing PMI | us.manpmi | 52.7 | 51.2 | 3 | 1 | UP | UP |
| NY Empire state Manufacturing | us.ny.empire.state.manufacturing | -8.1 | -20 | -60 | -58 | Down | UP |
| Chicago Purchasing Managers | us.chicago.pmi | 11.0 | 4 | 175 | -382 | UP | UP |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing | us.richmond.fed.manufacturing | 45.5 | 39.5 | 15 | 3 | UP | UP |
| Kansas Fed Manufacturing | us.kansas.fed.manufacturing | -13.0 | -9 | 44 | -750 | Down | Down |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing | us.dalls.fed.manufacturing | -16.3 | -8.3 | 96 | 13 | Down | Down |
| Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing | us.philadelphia.fed.manufacturing | 12.5 | 18.1 | 145 | 804 | UP | UP |
| industrial production | us.indproduction | 1.3 | 1.5 | -13 | -533 | UP | UP |
US Services
MacroVar tracks hundreds of indicators related to US services. Our focus is on the most important leading indicators based on the ISM report and related indicators. The ISM report is the most important report reflecting the real demand of services in the US economy.
| Indicator | Symbol | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend | Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Non-Manufacturing | us.ism.serv | 50.8 | 53.5 | -5 | -1 | Down | Down |
| ISM Non-Manufacturing new orders | us.ism.serv.neword | 50.4 | 52.2 | -3 | -7 | Down | Down |
| NMI prices | us.ism.serv.prices | 60.9 | 62.6 | -3 | 14 | UP | UP |
| ISM Non-Manufacturing employment | us.ism.serv.emp | 46.2 | 53.9 | -14 | -5 | Down | Down |
| US Services PMI | us.servpmi | 51.0 | 52.9 | -4 | -2 | Down | Down |
US consumer sentiment
Consumer spending makes up 67% of the U.S. Economy. MacroVar monitors direct consumer reports like the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and indirect macroeconomic indicators related to US employment and US consumer activity (building permits).
| Indicator | Symbol | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend | Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UoM consumer confidence | us.us.consconfidence | 57.0 | 64.7s | -12 | -28 | Down | Down |
| Conference Board Consumer Confidence | us.consconfidence | 92.9 | 98.3s | -5 | -10 | Down | Down |
| ISM manufacturing Employment | us.ism.man.emp | 44.7 | 47.6s | -6 | -8 | Down | Down |
| ISM Non-Manufacturing employment | us.ism.serv.emp | 46.2 | 53.9s | -14 | -5 | Down | Down |
| Initial Jobless claims | us.joblessclaims | 215.0 | 224s | -4 | -4 | Down | Down |
| Continuing jobless claims | us.contjoblessclaims | 1885.0 | 1844s | 2 | -1 | UP | Down |
| Conference Board Employment Trends Index | us.cb.employment | 111.25 | 112.16s | -1 | -5 | Down | Down |
| Non Farm Payrolls | US.nfp | 12.0 | 254s | -95 | -92 | Down | Down |
| JOLTS (000) | us.joboffers | 7600.0 | 8156s | -7 | -15 | Down | Down |
| Unemployment rate | us.unemploymentrate | 4.0 | 4.1s | -2 | 8 | Down | UP |
| retail sales | us.retailsalesan | 4.2 | 4.4s | -5 | 1300 | UP | UP |
| retail sales MoM | us.retailsales | -0.9 | 0.4s | -325 | -325 | Down | Down |
| car registrations | us.carregistrations | 192.4 | 245.1s | -22 | -21 | Down | Down |
| Building Permits | us.buildingpermits | 1459.0 | 1473s | -1 | -7 | UP | Down |
US Construction
The US construction sector is a significant component of the US economy. MacroVar monitors leading indicators of construction activity like building permits and new home sales.
| Indicator | Symbol | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend | Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Building Permits | us.buildingpermits | 1459.0 | 1473 | -1 | -7 | UP | Down |
| Housing Starts | us.housingstarts | 1366.0 | 1515 | -10 | -1 | UP | Down |
| New Home Sales | us.newhomesales | 676.0 | 664 | 2 | 5 | Down | UP |
| NAHB Index | us.nahb | 40.0 | 39 | 3 | -22 | Down | Down |
| Mortgage rate | us.mortgrate | 6.88 | 6.93 | -1 | 0 | Down | Down |
US Macroeconomic outlook
US Macroeconomic outlook presents an overview of the long-term fundamental coincident factors of the US economy. Components monitored are the country's rserves, debt, Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy. Explore US macroeconomic model in detail.
| Indicator | Symbol | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend | Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gdp | us.gdp | 27360.94 | 25462.7 | 7 | 76 | UP | UP |
| Real GDP | us.realgdp | 23542.3 | 23400.3 | 1 | 18 | UP | UP |
| gdp growth annual | us.gdpgrowthan | 2.5 | 2.7 | -7 | -56 | UP | Down |
| gdp growth | us.gdpgrowth | 2.4 | 3.1 | -23 | -66 | UP | Down |
| inflation cpi | us.inflationcpi | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3 | -3 | UP | Down |
| interest rate | us.interestrate | 4.75 | 5 | -5 | -14 | Down | Down |
| Unemployment rate | us.unemploymentrate | 4.0 | 4.1 | -2 | 8 | Down | UP |
| government debt | us.govdebt | 36220207.0 | 36218600 | 0 | 6 | UP | UP |
| external debt | us.externaldebt | 25798118.0 | 26895800 | -4 | 14 | UP | UP |
| government debt to gdp | us.govdebtgdp | 122.3 | 121.9 | 0 | 28 | UP | UP |
| current account | us.currentaccount | -310.95 | -275.03 | 13 | -100 | UP | UP |
| current account to gdp | us.currentaccountgdp | -3.0 | -3.8 | -21 | -3 | Down | UP |
| exports | us.exports | 266.51 | 273.57 | -3 | 3 | UP | UP |
| imports | us.imports | 364.94 | 352.51 | 4 | 12 | UP | UP |
| foreign exchange reserves | us.fxreserves | 34865.0 | 35805 | -3 | -7 | Down | Down |
| gold reserves | us.goldres | 8133.46 | 8133.46 | 0 | 0 | Down | Down |
| government revenues | us.govrev | 513294.0 | 454415 | 13 | 8 | UP | UP |
| fiscal expenditure | us.fiscalexp | 641935.0 | 541146 | 19 | 15 | UP | UP |
US Inflation
MacroVar monitors major inflation indexes and subcompoonents based on Bureau of Labour Statistics monthly report.
| Indicator | Symbol | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend | Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| inflation cpi | us.inflationcpi | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3 | -3 | UP | Down |
| core inflation rate | us.coreinflationrate | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3 | -15 | Down | Down |
| Produce Prices YoY | us.producerpricesch | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 250 | UP | UP |
US Employment
MacroVar monitors leading indicators (ISM/NMI employment activity), coincident (Initial & Continuing jobless claims) and lagging indicators of US employment. US employment is one of the major factors affecting US monetary policy.
| Indicator | Symbol | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend | Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless claims | us.joblessclaims | 215.0 | 224 | -4 | -4 | Down | Down |
| Continuing jobless claims | us.contjoblessclaims | 1885.0 | 1844 | 2 | -1 | UP | Down |
| Conference Board Employment Trends Index | us.cb.employment | 111.25 | 112.16 | -1 | -5 | Down | Down |
| Non Farm Payrolls | US.nfp | 12.0 | 254 | -95 | -92 | Down | Down |
| ISM manufacturing Employment | us.ism.man.emp | 44.7 | 47.6 | -6 | -8 | Down | Down |
| ISM Non-Manufacturing employment | us.ism.serv.emp | 46.2 | 53.9 | -14 | -5 | Down | Down |
| Unemployment rate | us.unemploymentrate | 4.0 | 4.1 | -2 | 8 | Down | UP |
| JOLTS (000) | us.joboffers | 7600.0 | 8156 | -7 | -15 | Down | Down |
US Monetary Policy
US Monetary policy is monitored by tracking the most important indicators related to the Fed's balance sheet and interest rates.
| Indicator | Symbol | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend | Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| interest rate | us.interestrate | 4.75 | 5 | -5 | -14 | Down | Down |
| money supply m1 | us.msm1 | 18455.8 | 18366.3 | 0 | 2 | UP | UP |
| money supply m2 | us.msm2 | 21533.8 | 21447.6 | 0 | 4 | UP | UP |
| government debt to gdp | us.govdebtgdp | 122.3 | 121.9 | 0 | 28 | UP | UP |
| loans to private sector | us.loanprivate | 2788.9 | 2788.4 | 0 | 1 | UP | UP |
| US Credit Rating (S&P) | RATING.S&P.US | ||||||
| US Credit Rating (Moody's) | RATING.MOODYS.US | ||||||
| US Credit Rating (Fitch) | RATING.FITCH.US |
US Fiscal Policy
US Fiscal policy is monitored by tracking the most important indicators related to the Treasury's decisions on government spending, revenues and budget surplus/deficit.
| Indicator | Symbol | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend | Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| government revenues | us.govrev | 513294.0 | 454415 | 13 | 8 | UP | UP |
| fiscal expenditure | us.fiscalexp | 641935.0 | 541146 | 19 | 15 | UP | UP |
| government budget | us.govbudget | -6.2 | -5.4 | 15 | -27 | Down | UP |
| Government budget | us.govbudgetvalue | -129000.0 | -87000 | 48 | -56 | UP | UP |
| government debt | us.govdebt | 36220207.0 | 36218600 | 0 | 6 | UP | UP |
| government debt to gdp | us.govdebtgdp | 122.3 | 121.9 | 0 | 28 | UP | UP |
US Trade
US trade activity is monitored by tracking Trade and Capital flows.
| Indicator | Symbol | Actual | Previous | M/M% | Y/Y% | Trend | Slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current account | us.currentaccount | -310.95 | -275.03 | 13 | -100 | UP | UP |
| current account to gdp | us.currentaccountgdp | -3.0 | -3.8 | -21 | -3 | Down | UP |
| balance of trade | us.balanceoftrade | -98.43 | -78.94 | 25 | 52 | Down | Down |
| imports | us.imports | 364.94 | 352.51 | 4 | 12 | UP | UP |
| exports | us.exports | 266.51 | 273.57 | -3 | 3 | UP | UP |
| capital flows | us.capitalflows | 87100.0 | 134100 | -35 | -37 | Down | Down |
| foreign direct investment | us.fdi | 75589.0 | 81456 | -7 | 1 | UP | UP |
| external debt | us.externaldebt | 25798118.0 | 26895800 | -4 | 14 | UP | UP |
| foreign exchange reserves | us.fxreserves | 34865.0 | 35805 | -3 | -7 | Down | Down |
| gold reserves | us.goldres | 8133.46 | 8133.46 | 0 | 0 | Down | Down |