United States ism manufacturing index

United States ism manufacturing index Data & Analytics

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ISM Manufacturing Database

United States Ism manufacturing index Statistics

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the United States ism manufacturing index signals presented in the statistics table below.

Indicator Symbol Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ism manufacturing index us.ism.man 50.2 50.9 -1 -17 -100.0 -100.0 10 2022-10-31

United States ism manufacturing index analysis

The ISM Manufacturing index is a leading indicator of the US Economy published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on the first business day of each month. MacroVar analyzes historical and current data of the ISM index, its subcomponents and specific sectors since 1948. Historically the ISM is 85% correlated to US Real GDP growth with a 12-month time lag. Hence, ISM is used by professional traders to predict economic and market conditions and identify trade ideas.
The index is based on a survey that asks the largest 300 US Manufacturing companies questions related to their business activity. The ISM manufacturing PMI report covers five areas in business activity and assigns them equal weighting.
The ISM is an exceptionally good leading indicator of the US economic activity and more specifically the US Business cycle.
ISM values above 50 indicate an expanding US Economy and vice-versa.
A change of trend in ISM occurs when the ISM has reversed for at least three months in a row.
An ISM index above 50 and expanding indicates strong economic growth and hence investors should have strong long bias in their portfolio construction. ISM index values above 50 and contracting indicate neutral economic growth conditions and in this case portfolio construction should have a long but weakening bias.
ISM index values below 50 and contracting indicate strong negative economic growth. Managers should have strong short bias in their portfolio construction. ISM index values below 50 and expanding indicate a possible economic recovery. Managers should have a weak short bias or market neutral stance in their portfolio construction.
ISM index peaks above 50 but growth slowing shows weak economic growth. Managers should have a weak short bias in portfolio construction or market neutral. ISM index troughs below 50 but contraction slows showing the first signs of weak economic expansion. Managers should have a weak long bias in portfolio construction or be market neutral.

US ISM and US Economy versus Inflation
One of MacroVar models for analyzing a country’s economy is MacroVar Economic Growth and Inflation model.
The two main economic indicators used in this model are Real GDP to gauge economic growth and US CPI to gauge inflation. However, real GDP is a lagging indicator. MacroVar uses ISM Manufacturing New orders index instead of real GDP as a leading indicator economic growth. Moreover, MacroVar uses the ISM Prices index to gauge inflation conditions since it is a leading indicator of inflation.

United States ism manufacturing index trend

United States ism manufacturing index trend is in an uptrend when the last value is higher than its twelve-month moving average and its twelve-month moving average slope is positive (last twelve-month moving average is higher than the previous month twelve-month moving average) and vice-versa. MacroVar calculates the number of months the United States ism manufacturing index has recorded new highs or lows. United States ism manufacturing index trend change is assumed when the specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more.

United States ism manufacturing index momentum

United States ism manufacturing index momentum is monitored by calculating its long-term year over year (Y/Y) return and its short-term month on month (M/M) return.

 

United States Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
S&P 500 SPX 4205.45 1 0.75 0.79161 56.8048 0.01305 0.00321 0.00863 0.01135
S&P 500 ETF SPY 401.97 100 50 0 56.93 2.07 1.7 1.73 -13.85
US Dollar Index (DXY) DXY 103.98 -100 -75 0 33.23 -1.52 -2.66 -2.27 8.29
United States 10-Year Bond Yield US.10Y 3.508 -100 -25 0 40.13 -0.71 -6.43 -7.12 134.65
US 5-year bond yield US.5Y 3.651 -100 -25 0 38.22 -3.13 -6.98 -6.31 193.25
US 30-year bond yield US.30Y 3.536 -100 -25 0 37.11 -0.25 -7.09 -10.8 85.32
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT 107.7 100 25 0 62.79 0.7 5.61 10.29 -28.7
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond LQD 109.67 100 25 0 65.14 0.78 3.02 5.41 -17.78
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond HYG 76.11 100 25 0 63.83 2.07 2.11 2.99 -12.14
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF IEF 98.59 100 25 0 60.1 0.32 1.91 3.01 -14.93
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond JNK 93.18 100 25 0 62.8 2.09 1.94 3.02 -13.79
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP) TIP 107.09 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
US 2-year bond yield US.2Y 4.218 -100 25 0 40.58 -3.39 -5.66 -2.92 510.42
US Yield Curve US.YC -0.512 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
US Yield Curve 2s5s US.YC25 -0.333 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
US Yield Curve 5s10s US.YC510 -0.179 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
US Yield Curve 5s30s US.YC530 -0.08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
US Yield Curve 10s30s US.YC1030 0.099 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
US Yield Curve 2s30s US.YC0230 -0.383 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

United States Financial News Stream

United States Macroeconomic Indicators

Indicator Symbol Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
balance of trade us.balanceoftrade -68289 -67210 1.61 -13.41 UP UP 28.33 2023-03-16
bank lending rate us.banks.lendingrate 6.25 5.73 9 92 100.0 100.0 100 2022-10-31
building permits us.buildingpermits 1550 1339 15.76 -17.51 UP Down 58.33 2023-03-21
business confidence (ISM) us.bizconfidence 50.2 50.9 -1 -17 -100.0 -100.0 10 2022-10-31
capacity utilization us.caputilization 78.8 79.66 -1.08 3.41 UP UP 78.33 2023-01-21
capital flows us.capitalflows 56725 13684 315 -3296 Down UP 2 2023-04-30
car registrations us.carregistrations 248.88 236.31 5.32 -2.67 Down Down 16.67 2023-03-16
case shiller home price index us.caseshiller 302.3 297.7 2 -1 Down Down 2 2023-03-31
composite pmi us.comppmi 50.1 46.8 7.05 -10.38 UP Down 21.67 2023-03-16
consumer confidence us.us.consconfidence 63.4 67 -5.37 6.73 UP UP 18.33 2023-03-17
consumer price index cpi us.cpi 300.84 299.17 0.56 7 UP UP 100 2023-03-16
continuing jobless claims us.contjoblessclaims 1694 1680 0.83 -1.4 UP Down 90 2023-03-21
core inflation rate us.coreinflationrate 6.3 6.6 -4.55 36.96 UP UP 94.17 2022-11-17
core pce price index us.corepce 125.5 125.13 0.3 5.54 UP UP 100 2023-01-25
core Producer Price Index us.coreproducerprices 138.5 137.8 0.51 8.2 UP UP 100 2023-03-16
current account us.currentaccount -206805 -219002 -5.57 98.23 Down Down 10 2023-03-21
current account to gdp us.currentaccountgdp -3.6 -2.9 24 33 -100.0 -100.0 0 2021-01-31
durable goods orders us.durablegoods 5.6 -1.7 -429.41 366.67 UP UP 95 2023-01-25
durable goods orders ex defense us.durablegoodsexdef 6.3 -2.3 -373.91 133.33 UP UP 95 2023-01-25
durable goods orders ex transportation us.durablegoodsextransp 0.2 0.2 0 -33 -100.0 -100.0 65 2022-08-31
exports us.exports 257496 249004 3.41 10.78 UP UP 93.33 2023-03-16
external debt us.externaldebt 24350900 24048800 1.26 19.24 UP UP 100 2022-12-21
fiscal expenditure us.fiscalexp 524548 486072 7.92 51.44 Down UP 76.67 2023-03-16
foreign direct investment us.fdi 69144 74407 -7.07 40.66 UP UP 93.33 2022-12-21
foreign exchange reserves us.fxreserves 37755 37209 1.47 -6.44 UP Down 16.67 2023-03-16
gdp us.gdp 23315.1 21060.5 10.71 55.52 UP UP 100 2022-12-21
Real GDP us.realgdp 20187.5 20054.7 0.66 6.19 UP UP 100 2023-03-16
gdp growth us.gdpgrowth 2.6 -0.6 -533 0 100.0 -100.0 50 2022-09-30
gdp growth annual us.gdpgrowthan 1 1.9 -47.37 -52.38 Down Down 20 2023-01-25
gold reserves us.goldres 8133.47 8133.46 0 0 100.0 -100.0 51 2021-09-30
government budget us.govbudget -5.8 -12.4 -53.23 -33.33 UP UP 13.33 2023-03-16
Government budget us.govbudgetvalue -262000 -39000 571.79 -320.73 Down Down 15 2023-03-16
government debt us.govdebt 31459300 31455000 0.01 4.82 UP UP 100 2023-03-16
government debt to gdp us.govdebtgdp 129 127 1.57 41.45 UP UP 100 2023-01-21
government revenues us.govrev 262114 447288 -41.4 -43.64 Down Down 43.33 2023-03-16
housing starts us.housingstarts 1309 1371 -4.52 -23.72 Down Down 35 2023-03-17
imports us.imports 325785 316214 3.03 4.65 Down UP 86.67 2023-03-16
industrial production us.indproduction -0.25 0.49 -151.02 -103.57 Down Down 28.33 2023-03-17
industrial production mom us.indproductionmm 0 -1 -100 -100 Down Down 37.5 2023-03-16
inflation cpi us.inflationcpi 6.5 7.1 -8.45 -7.14 Down Down 78.33 2022-12-21
inflation expectations us.inflationexp 4.2 5 -16 -30 Down Down 70 2023-03-16
interbank rate us.interbankrate 4.64 4.64 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-15
interest rate us.interestrate 4 4 23 700 100.0 100.0 87 2022-11-02
job offers us.joboffers 9590 9974 -4 -15 Down Down 10 2023-05-31
jobless claims us.joblessclaims 214 226 -5 -10 -100.0 -100.0 62 2022-10-15
loans to private sector us.loanprivate 2818.59 2838.01 -0.68 12.52 UP UP 91.67 2023-03-16
long term unemployment rate us.ltunemploymentrate 1.07 1.03 4 -59 -100.0 -100.0 2 2022-02-28
United States us.manpmi 46.8 46.2 1.3 -15.68 Down Down 6.67 2023-01-25
money supply m0 us.msm0 5328400 5405400 -1.42 -12.7 Down Down 61.67 2023-03-16
money supply m1 us.msm1 19641 19685.8 -0.23 -5.19 Down Down 71.67 2023-03-16
money supply m2 us.msm2 21267.1 21207.4 0.28 -2.62 Down Down 78.33 2023-03-16
mortgage rate us.mortgrate 6.48 6.71 -3.43 19.34 UP UP 93.33 2023-03-21
nahb housing market index us.nahb 44 42 4.76 -45.68 Down Down 11.67 2023-03-16
new home sales us.newhomesales 640 633 1.11 -18.99 UP Down 35 2023-03-21
non manufacturing pmi us.nonmanpmi 55.1 55.2 -0.18 -8.01 Down Down 18.33 2023-03-16
Producer Price Index us.producerprices 141.08 141.71 -0.44 4.54 UP UP 96.67 2023-03-17
PPI Index us.producerpricesch 4.6 5.7 -19.3 -54.46 Down Down 65 2023-03-16
retail sales MoM us.retailsales -0.4 3.2 -112.5 -123.53 Down Down 24.17 2023-03-16
retail sales us.retailsalesan 5.4 7.7 -29.87 -67.47 Down Down 50 2023-03-16
retail sales ex autos us.retailsalesexauto -0.1 2.4 -104.17 -106.25 Down Down 32.5 2023-03-16
services pmi us.servpmi 50.6 46.8 8.12 -10.44 UP Down 25 2023-03-16
total vehicle sales us.vehiclesales 14.89 15.88 -6.23 -1 UP Down 35 2023-03-16
unemployment rate us.unemploymentrate 3.6 3.4 5.88 -5.26 UP Down 26.67 2023-03-16
youth unemployment rate us.ytunemploymentrate 8.2 8.3 -1 -26 -100.0 -100.0 18 2022-03-31
Effective Federal Funds Rate us.fedfunds.eff 3.08 2.56 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 2022-10-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.hy 4.67 4.81 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-14
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate BBB Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.bbb 1.87 1.94 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-14
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment us.uomconf 58.6 58.2 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 2022-09-01
5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate us.5y5y 2.47 2.45 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 2022-10-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.master 1.52 1.58 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-14
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield BB Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.bbb 3 3.11 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-14
Federal Funds Target Range - Lower Limit us.fedfunds.lower 3.75 3.75 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-16
Cass Freight Index Shipments us.cassfreight 1.224 1.241 0 0 0 0 0 2022-10-01
ism manufacturing Employment index us.ism.man.emp 50 48.7 3 -4 -100.0 -100.0 37 2022-10-31
ism manufacturing index us.ism.man 50.2 50.9 -1 -17 -100.0 -100.0 10 2022-10-31
ism non manufacturing employment us.ism.serv.emp 53 50.2 6 0 100.0 -100.0 54 2022-09-30
ism non manufacturing index us.ism.serv 56.7 56.9 0 -8 -100.0 -100.0 18 2022-09-30
ism non manufacturing new orders index us.ism.serv.neword 60.6 61.8 -2 -5 -100.0 -100.0 32 2022-09-30
ism non manufacturing prices index us.ism.serv.prices 68.7 71.5 -4 -11 -100.0 -100.0 8 2022-09-30
ism manufacturing New Orders Index us.ism.man.neworders 49.2 47.1 4 -18 -100.0 -100.0 24 2022-10-31
ism non manufacturing business Activity us.ism.serv.biz 59.1 60.9 -3 -5 -100.0 -100.0 31 2022-09-30
ism manufacturing Production Index us.ism.man.prod 52.3 50.6 3 -12 -100.0 -100.0 29 2022-10-31
ism manufacturing Supplier Deliveries Index us.ims.man.supdel 46.8 52.4 -11 -38 -100.0 -100.0 2 2022-10-31
ism manufacturing Inventories Index us.ism.man.inv 52.5 55.5 -5 -8 -100.0 -100.0 12 2022-10-31
ism manufacturing Customers inventories Index us.ism.man.cust 41.6 41.6 0 31 100.0 100.0 97 2022-10-31
ism manufacturing Prices Index us.ism.man.prices 46.6 51.7 -10 -46 -100.0 -100.0 2 2022-10-31
ism manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index us.ism.man.backlog 45.3 50.9 -11 -29 -100.0 -100.0 3 2022-10-31
ism manufacturing Exports Index us.ism.man.exp 46.5 47.8 -3 -15 -100.0 -100.0 10 2022-10-31
ism non manufacturing Inventories Index us.ism.serv.inv 44.1 46.2 -5 -4 -100.0 -100.0 42 2022-09-30
ism non manufacturing supplier deliveries Index us.ism.serv.supdel 53.9 54.5 -1 -22 -100.0 -100.0 2 2022-09-30
ism non manufacturing order backlog Index us.ism.serv.ordersback 52.5 53.9 -3 -15 -100.0 -100.0 2 2022-09-30
ism non manufacturing New Export Orders us.ism.serv.newexp 65.1 61.9 5 9 100.0 100.0 74 2022-09-30
ism non manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index us.ism.serv.invsent 47.2 47.1 0 2 100.0 100.0 80 2022-09-30
US Consumer Confidence Index us.consconfidence 108 103.6 4 -2 100.0 -100.0 39 2022-09-30
Leading Economic Indicator Conference Board index us.lei 115.9 116.4 0 -1 -100.0 -100.0 22 2022-09-30
Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) - Conference Board us.cei 108.9 108.7 0 2 100.0 100.0 45 2022-09-30
Lagging Economic Indicator (Lagging) - Conference Board us.lagging 116.2 115.5 1 9 100.0 100.0 98 2022-09-30
US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index us.cesi 8.9 14.5 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-11
Build Permits United States us.us.buildingpermits 1564 1542 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 2022-09-01
ECRI US Weekly Leading Index us.ecri.leading 141.6 141.8 0 -2 -100.0 -100.0 42 2022-10-14
ECRI US Coincident Index us.ecri.coincident 191.1 190.9 0 3 100.0 100.0 69 2022-09-30
ECRI US Lagging Index us.ecri.lagging 237.8 235.2 1 10 100.0 100.0 99 2022-07-31
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expected Index us.uomconfexp 56.2 58 -3 -17 -100.0 -100.0 22 2022-10-31
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Index us.uomconfcur 65.3 59.7 9 -16 100.0 -100.0 37 2022-10-31
ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II us.baml.ushi 4.67 4.81 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-14
BofAML US High Yield CCC or Below Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.ccc 12.01 12.28 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-14
Federal Funds Rate us.fedfunds 3.83 3.83 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-14
S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index us.10city.caseshiller 321.28 325.658 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 2022-08-01
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index us.20city.caseshiller 309.868 314.014 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 2022-08-01
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Sales Pair Counts us.20city.caseshiller 150620 158779 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 2022-08-01
ism manufacturing sector - apparel ism.breadth.apparel 3 13 -77 0 -100.0 -100.0 78 2021-08-02
ism manufacturing sector - Computer & Electronic Products ism.breadth.confuter 2 5 -60 -67 -100.0 -100.0 30 2021-09-02
ism service sector - accomodation nmi.breadth.accomodation 1 3 -67 -75 -100.0 -100.0 27 2021-09-03
NY Empire state Manufacturing us.ny.empire.state.manufacturing -9.1 -1.5 507 -146 -100.0 -100.0 17 2022-10-31
United States Dallas Fed Services Index us.dalls.fed.services 26.1 21.6 21 -140 100.0 100.0 8 2021-04-27
U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index us.chicago.pmi 26.1 21.6 21 -140 100.0 100.0 8 2021-04-27
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing us.richmond.fed.manufacturing 45.2 45.7 -1 -34 -100.0 -100.0 3 2022-10-31
US Kansas Fed Manufacturing us.kansas.fed.manufacturing -22 2 -1200 -216 -100.0 -100.0 23 2022-10-31
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing us.dalls.fed.manufacturing -19.4 -17.2 13 -235 -100.0 -100.0 17 2022-10-31
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing us.philadelphia.fed.manufacturing -23.2 -24.3 -4.53 -245 Down Down 6.67 2023-03-16
Import Dry Bulk Freight Index(CDFI) CDFI 1089.96 1097.81 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-16
Coastal Bulk (Coal) Freight Index (Daily Index) CBCF 785.46 766.41 0 0 0 0 0 2022-11-16
Coastal Bulk Freight Index CBF-IDX-SSE CBFI 1104.35 1135.85 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 2022-11-11
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index SCF SCFI 1443.29 1579.21 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 2022-11-11
Containerized Freight Index CCF CCFI 1729.92 1790.86 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 2022-11-11