United States ism manufacturing index

United States ism manufacturing index Chart

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United States ism manufacturing index

ISM Manufacturing Database

United States Ism manufacturing index Statistics

Click here to explore the methodology used for estimating the United States ism manufacturing index signals presented in the statistics table below.

Indicator Symbol Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
ism manufacturing index us.ism.man 61.2 60.7 0.00823723 0.419954 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31

United States ism manufacturing index analysis

The ISM Manufacturing index is a leading indicator of the US Economy published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on the first business day of each month. MacroVar analyzes historical and current data of the ISM index, its subcomponents and specific sectors since 1948. Historically the ISM is 85% correlated to US Real GDP growth with a 12-month time lag. Hence, ISM is used by professional traders to predict economic and market conditions and identify trade ideas.
The index is based on a survey that asks the largest 300 US Manufacturing companies questions related to their business activity. The ISM manufacturing PMI report covers five areas in business activity and assigns them equal weighting.
The ISM is an exceptionally good leading indicator of the US economic activity and more specifically the US Business cycle.
ISM values above 50 indicate an expanding US Economy and vice-versa.
A change of trend in ISM occurs when the ISM has reversed for at least three months in a row.
An ISM index above 50 and expanding indicates strong economic growth and hence investors should have strong long bias in their portfolio construction. ISM index values above 50 and contracting indicate neutral economic growth conditions and in this case portfolio construction should have a long but weakening bias.
ISM index values below 50 and contracting indicate strong negative economic growth. Managers should have strong short bias in their portfolio construction. ISM index values below 50 and expanding indicate a possible economic recovery. Managers should have a weak short bias or market neutral stance in their portfolio construction.
ISM index peaks above 50 but growth slowing shows weak economic growth. Managers should have a weak short bias in portfolio construction or market neutral. ISM index troughs below 50 but contraction slows showing the first signs of weak economic expansion. Managers should have a weak long bias in portfolio construction or be market neutral.

US ISM and US Economy versus Inflation
One of MacroVar models for analyzing a country’s economy is MacroVar Economic Growth and Inflation model.
The two main economic indicators used in this model are Real GDP to gauge economic growth and US CPI to gauge inflation. However, real GDP is a lagging indicator. MacroVar uses ISM Manufacturing New orders index instead of real GDP as a leading indicator economic growth. Moreover, MacroVar uses the ISM Prices index to gauge inflation conditions since it is a leading indicator of inflation.

United States ism manufacturing index trend

United States ism manufacturing index trend is in an uptrend when the last value is higher than its twelve-month moving average and its twelve-month moving average slope is positive (last twelve-month moving average is higher than the previous month twelve-month moving average) and vice-versa. MacroVar calculates the number of months the United States ism manufacturing index has recorded new highs or lows. United States ism manufacturing index trend change is assumed when the specific indicator has recorded a 3-month high / low or more.

United States ism manufacturing index momentum

United States ism manufacturing index momentum is monitored by calculating its long-term year over year (Y/Y) return and its short-term month on month (M/M) return.

 

United States Financial Markets

Market Symbol Last Mom Trend Exh RSI 1D% 1W% 1M% 1Y%
S&P 500 SPX 4631.6 0.5 0.75 1.15518 65.2704 0.01226 0.0266 0.07555 0.17002
S&P 500 ETF SPY 461.55 0.5 0.75 1.13178 64.9928 0.01237 0.0266 0.07342 0.16928
US Dollar Index (DXY) DXY 98.4 0 0.75 1.83163 53.8105 -0.00696 -0.00091 0.01016 0.06771
United States 10-Year Bond Yield US.10Y 2.401 0.5 1 3.29617 65.7225 -0.02596 0.00671 0.39188 0.43437
US 5-year bond yield US.5Y 2.5 0.5 1 3.14743 70.948 -0.02534 0.04123 0.57035 1.8772
US 30-year bond yield US.30Y 2.505 0 1 2.2036 57.5522 -0.01803 -0.03765 0.19002 0.0609
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT 130.74 0 -1 -2.32803 42.1677 0.00755 0.01601 -0.07473 -0.04016
iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond LQD 120.94 0 -0.75 -2.4614 46.1304 0.00842 0.00926 -0.03225 -0.06761
iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond HYG 82.84 0 -0.75 -1.97536 54.1115 0.01234 0.01024 -0.00349 -0.04518
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF IEF 106.85 -0.5 -1 -3.27991 34.5464 0.00498 -0.00196 -0.05534 -0.05518
SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond JNK 103.11 0 -0.75 -2.03596 53.8091 0.01217 0.0093 -0.00358 -0.04863
iShares TIPS Bond (TIP) TIP 126.72 -0.5 0 -0.60482 51.2291 -0.00307 -0.01385 0.02417 0.01457
US 2-year bond yield US.2Y 2.375 1 1 3.35389 81.2651 0.01496 0.09195 0.76056 14.5534
US Yield Curve US.YC 1.08 0 1 1.74858 55.6394 -3.57 -11.55 -25.28 1.91241
US Yield Curve 2s5s US.YC25 0.53 0 0.5 1.38639 50.8504 -7.67 -13.96 -22.82 3.08475
US Yield Curve 5s10s US.YC510 0.55 0 1 1.84348 58.6679 -0.18 -9.69 -27.56 1.73529
US Yield Curve 5s30s US.YC530 1.2 0 0.75 1.21768 52.8329 2.13 -2.28 -16.56 0.9709
US Yield Curve 10s30s US.YC1030 0.65 -1 -0.5 0.52721 45.0387 4.17 5.01 -4.26 0.5283
US Yield Curve 2s30s US.YC0230 1.73 0 0.75 1.31448 52.3027 -1.09 -6.18 -18.58 1.14607

United States Financial News Stream

United States Macroeconomic Indicators

Indicator Symbol Actual Previous M/M% Y/Y% Trend Slope ZS5Y Update
balance of trade us.balanceoftrade -109802 -89799 22.28 53.8 Down Down 1.67 2022-05-04
bank lending rate us.banks.lendingrate 3.25 3.81 -0.146982 -0.409091 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-04-30
building permits us.buildingpermits 1870 1865 0.27 7.91 UP UP 95 2022-04-29
business confidence (ISM) us.bizconfidence 55.4 57.1 -2.98 -8.73 Down Down 33.33 2022-05-04
capacity utilization us.caputilization 74.9 74.3914 0.00683681 0.166002 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
capital flows us.capitalflows 146400 72638 1.01547 -0.587987 1.0 -1.0 0.433333 2021-03-31
car registrations us.carregistrations 244.65 224.89 8.79 -16.91 Down Down 8.33 2022-04-29
case shiller home price index us.caseshiller 296.35 289.73 2.28 20.25 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
composite pmi us.comppmi 56 57.7 -2.95 -18.49 Down Down 73.33 2022-05-04
consumer confidence us.us.consconfidence 59.1 65.2 -9.36 -28.71 Down Down 1.67 2022-05-15
consumer price index cpi us.cpi 288.66 287.71 0.33 8.18 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
continuing jobless claims us.contjoblessclaims 1343 1387 -3.17 -21.65 Down Down 1.67 2022-05-04
core inflation rate us.coreinflationrate 4.5 3.8 0.184211 2.75 1.0 1.0 1 2021-06-30
core pce price index us.corepce 116.581 116.023 0.00480939 0.033932 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
core Producer Price Index us.coreproducerprices 134.1 133.2 0.68 8.76 UP UP 100 2022-05-15
current account us.currentaccount -188484 -180917 0.0418258 0.671417 -1.0 -1.0 0.983333 2020-10-01
current account to gdp us.currentaccountgdp -3.1 -2.2 0.409091 -0.340426 -1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
durable goods orders us.durablegoods 0.8 -1.7 -147.06 -38.46 Down Down 48.33 2022-04-29
durable goods orders ex defense us.durablegoodsexdef 1.2 -2.1 -157.14 -47.83 UP Down 55 2022-04-29
durable goods orders ex transportation us.durablegoodsextransp 1.1 -0.5 -320 -66.67 UP Down 80 2022-04-29
exports us.exports 241716 228824 5.63 17.71 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
external debt us.externaldebt 21764800 21358300 0.0190324 0.134712 1.0 1.0 0.5 2021-01-01
fiscal expenditure us.fiscalexp 555434 507855 9.37 -16.45 UP Down 83.33 2022-05-04
foreign direct investment us.fdi 53916 47457 0.136102 0.252462 1.0 1.0 0.616667 2021-01-01
foreign exchange reserves us.fxreserves 39252 40388 -2.81 -7.09 Down Down 1.67 2022-05-04
gdp us.gdp 20936.6 21433.2 -0.0231697 0.423019 1.0 1.0 0 2020-01-31
Real GDP us.realgdp 19735.9 19806.3 -0.36 4.15 UP UP 98.33 2022-04-29
gdp growth us.gdpgrowth -1.4 6.9 -120.29 -148.28 Down Down 11.67 2022-04-29
gdp growth annual us.gdpgrowthan 3.4 5.5 -38.18 47.83 UP UP 91.67 2022-04-29
gold reserves us.goldres 8133.46 8133.5 -0.00000491793 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.55 2020-07-01
government budget us.govbudget -14.9 -4.6 2.23913 3.80645 -1.0 -1.0 0.916667 2020-01-31
Government budget us.govbudgetvalue 308000 -193000 -259.58 -236.54 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
government debt us.govdebt 30374200 30401000 -0.09 7.81 UP UP 98.33 2022-05-04
government debt to gdp us.govdebtgdp 107.6 106.9 0.00654818 0.589365 1.0 1.0 0.75 2019-02-28
government revenues us.govrev 863649 315172 174.02 96.65 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
housing starts us.housingstarts 1643 1546 0.0627426 0.290652 1.0 1.0 0.916667 2021-06-30
imports us.imports 351518 318624 10.32 27.02 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
industrial production us.indproduction 16.5 1 15.5 -2.01227 1.0 1.0 0.2 2021-04-30
industrial production mom us.indproductionmm 0.7 2.4 -0.708333 -1.05512 -1.0 1.0 0.516667 2021-04-30
inflation cpi us.inflationcpi 5.4 5 0.08 8 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-06-30
inflation expectations us.inflationexp 6.3 6.6 -4.55 85.29 UP UP 98.33 2022-05-04
interbank rate us.interbankrate 0.13 0.14 -0.0714286 -0.35 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-06-02
interest rate us.interestrate 0.25 1.25 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2020-03-15
job offers us.joboffers 11549 11344 1.81 39.35 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
jobless claims us.joblessclaims 203 202 0.5 -2.87 UP Down 21.67 2022-05-04
loans to private sector us.loanprivate 2561.28 2519.32 1.67 -0.42 UP Down 76.67 2022-05-15
long term unemployment rate us.ltunemploymentrate 2.47 2.33 0.0600858 1.83908 1.0 1.0 0.866667 2021-06-30
manufacturing pmi us.manpmi 59.2 58.8 0.68 -4.67 Down Down 88.33 2022-05-04
money supply m0 us.msm0 6134500 6040000 1.56 5.06 Down UP 91.67 2022-05-04
money supply m1 us.msm1 20710.1 20694.2 0.08 10.76 UP UP 98.33 2022-05-04
money supply m2 us.msm2 21809.7 21811.8 -0.01 9.62 UP UP 96.67 2022-05-04
mortgage rate us.mortgrate 5.53 5.36 3.17 48.66 UP UP 100 2022-05-04
nahb housing market index us.nahb 83 82 0.0121951 1.76667 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
new home sales us.newhomesales 763 835 -8.62 -12.6 UP Down 75 2022-04-29
non manufacturing pmi us.nonmanpmi 57.1 58.3 -2.06 -8.93 Down Down 46.67 2022-05-04
Producer Price Index us.producerprices 137.79 136.65 0.83 11.3 UP UP 100 2022-05-15
PPI Index us.producerpricesch 6.2 4.2 0.47619 -5.13333 1.0 1.0 0.0333333 2021-04-30
retail sales MoM us.retailsales 0.5 0.8 -37.5 -44.44 Down Down 55 2022-05-15
retail sales us.retailsalesan 51.2 29 0.765517 -3.57286 1.0 1.0 0.05 2021-04-30
retail sales ex autos us.retailsalesexauto -0.8 9 -1.08889 -0.947368 -1.0 1.0 0.416667 2021-04-30
services pmi us.servpmi 55.6 58 -4.14 -21.02 Down Down 65 2022-05-04
total vehicle sales us.vehiclesales 14.3 13.3 7.52 -22.7 UP Down 20 2022-05-04
unemployment rate us.unemploymentrate 6.1 6 0.0166667 -0.585034 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-30
youth unemployment rate us.ytunemploymentrate 11 11.1 -0.00900901 -0.59854 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-30
Effective Federal Funds Rate us.fedfunds.eff 0.06 0.07 -0.142857 0.2 -1.0 1.0 0.35 2021-05-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.hy 3.21 3.23 -0.00619195 -0.041791 -1.0 -1.0 0.25 2021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate BBB Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.bbb 1.11 1.12 -0.00892857 -0.0176991 -1.0 -1.0 0.433333 2021-06-11
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment us.uomconf 88.3 84.9 0.0400471 0.229805 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate us.5y5y 2.65 2.53 0.0474308 2.44156 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-01
BofA Merrill Lynch US Corporate Master Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.master 0.9 0.91 -0.010989 0 -1.0 -1.0 0.791667 2021-06-11
BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield BB Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.bbb 2.32 2.34 -0.00854701 -0.0491803 -1.0 -1.0 0.25 2021-06-11
Federal Funds Target Range - Lower Limit us.fedfunds.lower 1 1 0 -0.333333 -1.0 -1.0 0.108333 2020-03-14
Cass Freight Index Shipments us.cassfreight 1.269 1.178 0.0772496 0.352878 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-01
ism manufacturing Employment index us.ism.man.emp 50.9 55.1 -0.076225 0.58567 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing index us.ism.man 61.2 60.7 0.00823723 0.419954 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing employment us.ism.serv.emp 55.3 58.8 -0.0595238 0.738994 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing index us.ism.serv 72.4 62.7 0.154705 0.594714 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing new orders index us.ism.serv.neword 63.9 63.2 0.0110759 0.52506 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing prices index us.ism.serv.prices 80.6 76.8 0.0494792 0.44964 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing New Orders Index us.ism.man.neworders 67 64.3 0.0419907 1.10692 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing business Activity us.ism.serv.biz 66.2 62.7 0.0558214 0.614634 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Production Index us.ism.man.prod 58.5 62.5 -0.064 0.762048 -1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Supplier Deliveries Index us.ims.man.supdel 78.8 75 0.0506667 0.158824 1.0 1.0 0.8 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Inventories Index us.ism.man.inv 50.8 46.5 0.0924731 0.00793651 1.0 1.0 0.466667 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Customers inventories Index us.ism.man.cust 28 28.4 -0.0140845 -0.393939 -1.0 -1.0 0.0333333 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Prices Index us.ism.man.prices 88 89.6 -0.0178571 1.15686 1.0 1.0 0.966667 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Backlog of Orders Index us.ism.man.backlog 70.6 68.2 0.0351906 0.848168 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
ism manufacturing Exports Index us.ism.man.exp 55.4 54.9 0.00910747 0.402532 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventories Index us.ism.serv.inv 51.5 49.1 0.0488798 0.0729167 -1.0 1.0 0.883333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing supplier deliveries Index us.ism.serv.supdel 70.4 66.1 0.0650529 0.0507463 1.0 1.0 0.633333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing order backlog Index us.ism.serv.ordersback 61.1 55.7 0.0969479 0.31681 1.0 1.0 1 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing New Export Orders us.ism.serv.newexp 60 58.6 0.0238908 0.445783 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
ism non manufacturing Inventory Sentiment Index us.ism.serv.invsent 40.5 46.8 -0.134615 -0.264973 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-05-31
US Consumer Confidence Index us.consconfidence 117.2 117.5 -0.00255319 0.364377 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-31
Leading Economic Indicator Conference Board index us.lei 113.3 111.5 0.0161435 0.169247 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
Coincident Economic Indicator (CEI) - Conference Board us.cei 104.1 103.8 0.00289017 0.119355 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
Lagging Economic Indicator (Lagging) - Conference Board us.lagging 104.7 102.8 0.0184825 -0.0935065 -1.0 -1.0 0.0166667 2021-04-30
US Citigroup Economic Surprise Index us.cesi 13 4 2.25 -0.835443 -1.0 -1.0 0.316667 2021-06-04
Build Permits United States us.us.buildingpermits 1760 1755 0.002849 0.608775 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
ECRI US Weekly Leading Index us.ecri.leading 159.5 159.1 0.00251414 0.0562914 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-05-21
ECRI US Coincident Index us.ecri.coincident 195.5 194.5 0.00514139 0.194988 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-01
ECRI US Lagging Index us.ecri.lagging 213.8 212.8 0.00469925 -0.0631025 1.0 -1.0 0.0833333 2021-04-01
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expected Index us.uomconfexp 82.7 79.7 0.0376412 0.179743 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Current Index us.uomconfcur 97.2 93 0.0451613 0.30821 1.0 1.0 1 2021-04-30
ICE BofAML US High Yield Master II us.baml.ushi 3.28 3.28 0 -0.0352941 -1.0 -1.0 0.233333 2021-06-04
BofAML US High Yield CCC or Below Option-Adjusted Spread us.baml.ccc 6.31 6.32 -0.00158228 -0.0322086 -1.0 -1.0 0.15 2021-06-04
Federal Funds Rate us.fedfunds 0.09 0.09 0 0 UP Down 60 2021-01-12
S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index us.10city.caseshiller 248.14 244.258 1.59 7.54 UP UP 100 2021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index us.20city.caseshiller 235.46 231.715 1.61 7.93 UP UP 100 2021-01-13
S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Sales Pair Counts us.20city.caseshiller 180935 194048 -6.76 17.31 UP UP 91.67 2021-01-13
ism manufacturing sector - apparel ism.breadth.apparel 13 5 1.6 3.33333 1.0 1.0 0.983333 2021-05-03
ism manufacturing sector - Computer & Electronic Products ism.breadth.confuter 6 11 -0.454545 -1.6 -1.0 1.0 0.191667 2021-06-01
ism service sector - accomodation nmi.breadth.accomodation 13 17 -0.235294 -2.44444 1.0 1.0 0.0833333 2021-06-03
NY Empire state Manufacturing us.ny.empire.state.manufacturing 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
United States Dallas Fed Services Index us.dalls.fed.services 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index us.chicago.pmi 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
US Richmond Fed Manufacturing us.richmond.fed.manufacturing 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
US Kansas Fed Manufacturing us.kansas.fed.manufacturing 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
US Dallas Fed Manufacturing us.dalls.fed.manufacturing 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing us.philadelphia.fed.manufacturing 52.1 56.3 -0.0746004 0.0831601 1.0 1.0 0.416667 2020-11-30
Import Dry Bulk Freight Index(CDFI) CDFI 1676.29 1671.71 0.00273971 0.0780763 1.0 1.0 1 2021-08-06
Coastal Bulk (Coal) Freight Index (Daily Index) CBCF 1042.99 1034.34 0.00836282 0.0671503 1.0 1.0 0.716667 2021-08-06
Coastal Bulk Freight Index CBF-IDX-SSE CBFI 1239.03 1229.26 0.00794787 -0.141964 1.0 -1.0 0.666667 2021-08-06
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index SCF SCFI 4225.86 4196.24 0.0070587 0.263964 1.0 1.0 1 2021-08-06
Containerized Freight Index CCF CCFI 3006.82 2930.03 0.0262079 0.408762 1.0 1.0 1 2021-08-06